Green Bay Packers Post-mortem

[Chavez]

First off, I'm pretty happy about the state of the team as it stands at this point - plenty of young talent and they ended on a high note, rolling off 4 straight wins. Obviously there is still work to be done, but about the only areas where I see a true need for immediate upgrades are FB and TE - two positions you don't necessarily need an All-Pro at. My comments on the Packers:

 

QB - Favre is obviously on the downside of a great career; however, he cut down on his mistakes (and for him, 18 ints isn't exactly uncharted territory; it's just that normally he made up for his ints with a TON of tds, which haven't come), but his tds and comp pct were at career lows. Still, he looks like he can play at a reasonably decent level yet, and there's no reason he shouldn't come back. Whether he will or not is up in the air. Aaron Rodgers continues to be unimpressive in VERY limited action. I'll say Green Bay is maybe a C- at QB, with their depth issues and Favre's decline.

 

RB - Ahman Green was fantastic this year, coming back from an injury and running behind an inexperienced line learning a new scheme. He missed a few games, but ran tough, once again got over his early season fumblitis, and showed that he still has enough burst to be an above-average NFL starter. Ideally GB can get him back for a reasonable price - his age and number of touches are in the "worrisome" range. Morency had some VERY nice games as the change-of-pace guy/spot starter. I'd like to see him used more in the passing game. Noah Herron maxes out his ability, and had a 100 yd game himself when called upon. The fullbacks are just guys, and I doubt they bring William Henderson back. Arguably a team strength. B.

 

WR - Donald Driver is underrated. He had another terrific year, despite very little help. Jennings was a great draft pick and played decent for a #2, a bit above average for a rookie WR, though, by the numbers. He would've been even better had he not injured his ankle - that clealry affected him down the stretch. Not much behind them, but Ruvell Martin improved as he played more and had a terrific game vs the Bears in the season finale. Carlyle Holiday was much the same; if Green Bay goes into next season with those guys as their top 4 WRs, I've got no complaints. C- (A+ for Driver, C for Jennings, D for the rest of the guys they had to trot in and out)

 

TE - a sucking black hole; Franks, Donald Lee, and David Martin all have talent, and have been able to be productive players in the past. This year, they were mostly a group of pass-dropping turds; I can only hope that Green Bay is an attractive option to a free agent Tony Gonzalez. F.

 

OL - Tausch and Clifton battled injuries more than in the past, but look to be ready to bounce back next year. Wells is OK at center. The 3 rooks - Moll, Spitz, and Colledge - all played extensively and improved as the season went on. Colledge and Moll also showed the ability to slide out to tackle and perform adequately, making this unit 6 deep, with versatility and depth. Overall, they were good in pass protection, inconsistent in the run game. C+.

 

DL - Aaron Kampman had a breakthrough year; he plays hard and plays smart and proved himself worthy of his free agent contract, putting a pass-rush together with his solid play against the run. Corey Williams was very good from the 3-technique, as was Ryan Pickett at NT. KGB was too often a non-factor, and the defense stepped up when Cullen Jenkins replaced him at RE (that coincided with a lesser level of competition, but I think both were factors). KGB looks to be back into his spot as a situational player, for which he'd be overpaid, but affordable in GB's current cap situation. Overall, a hardworking, effective bunch that made up what it lacked in star power with hustle and production. B+.

 

LB - Barnett is what he is - not really a difference maker, but he has nice range and doesn't make many mistakes. AJ Hawk looks like a player - there were times this year he was verging on dominant. Brady Poppinga is probably the weakest starter, but he improved after some early embarrassments in the passing game and plays with fire and intensity, and also is a terrific locker room guy. These guys helped the D be solid against the run, for the most part, all season. C+.

 

DB - The DBs were heinous early on, but to their credit, kept working and improved. The season was rife with big plays in the passing game, often due to miscommunication. Al Harris got exploited a bit early on but turned it around and went back to his standard level of play. Woodson was much the same - heinous early but up near Pro Bowl level down the stretch. The safeties, however, were AWFUL. Collins and Manuel were consistently exploited in the passing game - neither appears able to keep up with WRs of any type. This has to be addressed one way or another, and I think a good start would be to ditch Kurt Schottenheimer. D.

 

Special Teams - Rayner and Ryan both had consistency issues, but also both showed pretty big legs. You hope the consistency comes with experience. Woodson generally made good decisions and got what he could on punt returns. Kickoff returners were worthless. Aside from Devin Hester's week 1 td, both kickoff and punt coverage were adequate - nothing great, but not costing games. A return specialist wouldn't be a bad addition. C.

 

Coaching - Green Bay finished pretty near where they were last year in offensive and defensive rankings, but McCarthy squeezed four more wins out of it than Sherman did. The offense and defense both improved as the season went on, a credit to the coaches for keeping the players from checking out after Green Bay dropped to 1-4 early and 4-8 late in the season. Still, there are some issues - that stretch against NE, Seattle, and the Jets showed that there is a gap between Green Bay and true playoff teams. But if the young players can keep moving forward, there is a nice foundation here. C+.

 

Overall, an 8-8, non-playoff team rates a C; I'm going to throw a + onto that because they were coming off a 4-12 season, had a lot of youth, and were learning a new offense.

[Outshined]

 

 

Aaron Rodgers continues to be unimpressive in VERY limited action.

 

 

 

If Favre is done, do you think they will bring in a veteran QB or will they give the reigns to Rodgers?

[Chavez]

If Favre is done, do you think they will bring in a veteran QB or will they give the reigns to Rodgers?

 

Well, here's the FA class of 07 at QB:

Matt Schaub, RFA, Atlanta Falcons

The free agent quarterback class is light in 2007, but teams in true need of a field general may be highly interested in Schaub. He has an NFL arm and has shown flashes of possibly being a legitimate quality starting quarterback. It is likely that just a handful of teams would aggressively pursue Schaub, but if someone is willing to pay decent money and forfeit a draft pick for Schaub, he could be lured away from his spot behind Michael Vick. In the end, Schaub’s chances of re-signing with the Falcons don’t look good, as Schaub will pursue a bigger role in another offense.

 

Damon Huard, UFA, Kansas City Chiefs

Huard had fallen off the NFL map somewhat in recent seasons. After starting as the Miami Dolphins quarterback in the ’99 and ’00 seasons, he played in just four games and attempted only one pass from the ’01 season through the ’05 season. An early injury to Chiefs starter Trent Green changed Huard’s fate. Huard played in parts of nine games while Green was out, and in those nine games, he showed that he was a quite capable NFL quarterback. Huard posted a 97.6 quarterback rating with a 60.6% completion rate, and his 11 touchdown passes to just one interception had to have made an impression on someone. Huard may be asked to play second fiddle in a new town, but if he shows the same talent that he did in replacing Green, he could make a run at a starting position, if there’s a team looking to take a risk on a veteran.

 

Other Free Agent Quarterbacks

 

Rohan Davey, RFA, Arizona Cardinals

Shaun King, UFA, Indianapolis Colts

John Navarre, RFA, Arizona Cardinals

Tim Rattay, UFA, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony Wright, UFA, Cincinnati Bengals

 

None of those guys turn my crank too awful much. Huard may be the best bet, as he would come cheap and would be what I'd expect them to bring in - not an a-lister, but someone who can push Rodgers and do the job if Rodgers appears COMPLETELY incapable.

 

But if Favre retired, I'd expect Rodgers would have the inside track and have clearly lose the job.

[budlitebrad]

DB is definitely the most glaring need in FA and the draft. If TT doesn't want to go for offense in the first round, I would love to see them grab a playmaking safety like Landry or Griffin.

[Chavez]

DB is definitely the most glaring need in FA and the draft. If TT doesn't want to go for offense in the first round, I would love to see them grab a playmaking safety like Landry or Griffin.

 

Well, Marviel Underwood did very well this preseason before getting injured, and Will Blackmon remains on the roster as well, so there are some promising young guys there.

 

But Marquand Manuel looked like Mark Roman Jr all year, and Collins needs to be used differently - he has ability but can't cover. Patrick Dendy lacks speed, but Mike McKenzie and Al Harris prove that speed isn't the be-all, end-all at DB - obviously you need a certain amount of speed to play there but can do well even if you lack elite wheels.

 

EDIT - but given that Harris and Woodson are getting up there age-wise, getting some youth at DB isn't a bad idea at all.

Edited January 3, 2007 by Chavez

[Todd1]

Favre isn't done, but if he is, I'd expect something similar to what we did in the early and mid 1990's. Bring in a vet QB to be there in case Rodgers falters. A Jeff Garcia/Damon Huard type would be nice.

 

I agree with almost all your assessments Chavez. Nice Zoltar pic too.

 

Schottenheimer should go. I'd bring in another vet safety, but remember that Underwood comes back next year too.

 

Also, isn't Koren Robinson coming back next year? Driver, Jenkins, Martin, Holiday and KRob is a solid 5 WRs. I said we needed a vet 3rd guy and Robinson should be it. Ferguson has to go.

 

They gotta resign Jenkins and give him the highest qualifying offer. $2.2 mil or so for a starting DE? So what. KGB makes $5 or 6 mil I think and Kampman isn't far behind.

 

Gonzo would be nice, but if we can't get him, I say draft priorities in order are RB, TE, S, OT, DB, FB and QB late.

[budlitebrad]

They gotta resign Jenkins and give him the highest qualifying offer. $2.2 mil or so for a starting DE? So what. KGB makes $5 or 6 mil I think and Kampman isn't far behind.

 

 

Agreed. Jenkins is playing better than KGB and should be a top priority.

[piratesownninjas]

If Favre is done, do you think they will bring in a veteran QB or will they give the reigns to Rodgers?

 

As much as it scares me to say it, we have to give it over to Rodgers... He's our former number one pick, and he's entering his third year in the league. We have to give him a chance to show us what he can do in a starting role...

[Caveman_Nick]

I would give Rodgers more slack. He did play a half of football on a broken foot...the injury is clearly not a good sign, but that did show good toughness.

[Randall]

 

Also, isn't Koren Robinson coming back next year? Driver, Jenkins, Martin, Holiday and KRob is a solid 5 WRs. I said we needed a vet 3rd guy and Robinson should be it. Ferguson has to go.

 

 

 

 

Week 5 he should be eligible, but he may be in jail. His charges were pretty serious and I think still unresolved.

 

Nice writeup Chavez.

[Rovers]

I wouldn't hold my breath on Gonzo.... word is they will tag him if they can't come together on a contract in KC. KGB is also a UFA, isn't he? I suspect with his one dimensional play, he's going elsewhere. I think GB should draft Lynch. Green has been a nice surprise, but the wheels could fall off in a hurry.

 

I think based on how GB finished, and Favre so close to some big records, he plays another year. I don't think AR is the answer as his successor. Schaub would be a very tidy fit in GB I think. nice write up.

[Bronco Billy]

If Favre is done, do you think they will bring in a veteran QB or will they give the reigns to Rodgers?

 

 

Think Ingle. I think GB's QB after next year is on the roster - whether Rodgers starts to get it (and he's still early in his learning curve) or whether Ingle jumps up and takes the spot (and I like Ingle's chances since he was drafted by the current regime and he appears to have a decent skill set), I don't think you'll see GB go outside for their post-Favre starter, especially since it's so hard to replace a legend.

[Randall]

Think Ingle. I think GB's QB after next year is on the roster - whether Rodgers starts to get it (and he's still early in his learning curve) or whether Ingle jumps up and takes the spot (and I like Ingle's chances since he was drafted by the current regime and he appears to have a decent skill set), I don't think you'll see GB go outside for their post-Favre starter, especially since it's so hard to replace a legend.

 

 

 

Possibly although they have said Rodgers has improved greatly over last year. In PS games he has looked good and bad, both need to be given a little more time. It took Favre several years to really start clicking.

[Chavez]

I wouldn't hold my breath on Gonzo.... word is they will tag him if they can't come together on a contract in KC. KGB is also a UFA, isn't he? I suspect with his one dimensional play, he's going elsewhere. I think GB should draft Lynch. Green has been a nice surprise, but the wheels could fall off in a hurry.

 

 

KGB is locked up for at least next year, maybe two. Gonzo is probably a pipe dream, but it's nice to think about. Someone will probably overpay him (not that he isn't worth it, but I'm thinking more along the lines of a too-big signing bonus with an overlong contract).