Raging Alpaca Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 (edited) Welcome to RAGING ALPACA's weekly breakdown of matchups to exploit and avoid. Each week, I'll highlight three particularly appealing matchups at QB, RB, and WR, while also providing you with three you should avoid. Here are the ground rules: 1. No player who is on my TOP 5 at each position will be listed as an EXPLOIT or an AVOID. Put simply, I don't see much purpose in telling you to start Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, as you'll probably start them every week regardless of matchup. From week to week, however, I will change the TOP 5 depending on player performance. 2. I will track my accuracy (or lack thereof) as follows: an EXPLOIT pick will be considered a SUCCESS if the player finishes in the top 12 at his position for the week in question. An AVOID pick will be considered a SUCCESS if the player finishes outside of the top 12 for that week. The scoring system for making these determinations is as follows: 1 per 10 rush/rec; 1 per 20 passing; 4 pt. per passing TD; 6 pt. per rush/rec. TD; -1 for all fumbles and interceptions; and 3 point bonuses for breaking 100 yds rushing, 100 yds. receiving, or 300 yards passing. Now, without further ado, I give you my picks for Week 1: TOP 5 -- Not to be considered in Exploit/Avoid 1) Peyton Manning 2) Carson Palmer 3) Donovan McNabb 4) Drew Brees 5) Tom Brady MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT: 1) Jake Delhomme v. St. Louis Defense: Jake has gotten very little love in fantasy drafts this year. According to the fine folks over at fantasycalculator.com, Mr. Delhomme is going in the middle of the 12th round in most fantasy drafts. Given his relatively poor performance last year, that's certainly understandable. However, people forget that the guy was without his starting left tackle and center from the outset. I'm not suggesting that Jake is going to become a great fantasy option this year, but remember that he's only one year removed from a 24 touchdown season. He's going to be a valuable backup at times in 2007, and never so much so as this week. If you're going with a QBBC approach, and Jake's a member of your rotation, it's time to get him in the lineup. Put simply, the Rams defense stinks. Not only does it stink in general, but it REALLY stinks against the pass, rating a putrid 30th last year through the air according to footballoutsiders. Their corners are basically atrocious, so Steve Smith should really shine, and has a excellent opportunity to break off a long TD (or two). Furthermore, the Rams' high powered offense should ensure that Jake has to sling the rock well into the fourth quarter. Lots of opportunity, plus a dangerous WR going against a bad defense should mean that Jake excels in week 1. 2) Tony Romo v. New York Giants Defense: Maybe it's just me, but I get the sense that Tony can't wait to get back into the national spotlight to begin shaking off the memories of last season's playoff debacle. And for his Sunday night opener, Romo is fortunate enough to face a very questionable Giants secondary at home. Look for Romo to hook up early and often with TO, and keep an eye on Patrick Crayton, who may well be starting in lieu of the injured Terry Glenn. 3) Matt Schaub v. Kansas City Defense -- the ALPACA has no interest in making boring projections, so he's going to select a QB making his first appearance for his new team which just so happens to have been pretty terrible on the offensive side of the ball for quite a while. But there's plenty of reason for optimism here: Matt's at home against a very weak Chief secondary, which ranked just 20th last year against the pass last season in DVOA, and hasn't done anything to really improve the situation. Ty Law is not going to be able to deal with Andre Johnson, and I've got a hunch that pre-season sensation Jacoby Jones makes a big play that will send fantasy owners across the country scrambling to the waiver wire to acquire his services. Schaub can also look to the underrated Owen Daniels for help, as well as capable pass catching back Ahman Green. Like Delhomme, Schaub looks like a solid QBBC committee play this week. MATCHUPS TO AVOID: 1) Jon Kitna v. Oakland Defense: surely, the ALPACA jests, right? I mean, is he really advising you to bench a quarterback in Mad Mike Martz's system against the pitiful Oakland Raiders? The answer: YOU BET. Folks, if you haven't been paying attention, you should now: the Oakland Raider defense is for real. Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington are play-making corners, and Michael Huff is the real deal at safety. That's part of the reason why Oakland ranked 5th against the pass last year in DVOA. Add in the pass rushing abilities of Derrick Burgess, and Kitna could be in for a long day this Sunday. I'm projecting the Raiders to win this game by keeping things simple on offense -- they'll give LaMont Jordan a heavy workload to challenge a questionable Detroit run D, and in turn keep the Lions offense off of the field. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a Defensive TD from Oakland. Kitna's going to help you this year, no doubt -- just not this week. 2) Vince Young v. Jacksonville Defense -- let the ALPACA be clear: he loves Vince Young. However, just like with Jon Kitna, you've got to be cognizant of what he's up against. Jacksonville was third against the pass in DVOA last year, and 7th against the rush. Young struggled mightily against the Jags last year, and I don't expect much in the way of improvement this Sunday. If I'm a Young owner, I think I look to other options during this first week to see how things shake out, given the Titans' turnover at the WR position and the fact that Vince is on the road. 3) Rex Grossman v. San Diego Defense -- ok, so I take that part about "no boring projections" back. Hopefully, you don't need to start Grossman at this early stage in the season. If you do, may God have mercy on your fantasy season. The Chargers should gets lots of pressure on Sexy Rexy, resulting in the oh-so predictable fumbles, errant center exchanges, and yes, those interceptions. Those glorious interceptions. Later this week, I'll have the RB highlights. Thanks for reading, and please add your own avoid/exploit thoughts to this thread. Edited September 5, 2007 by DMD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 nice job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 If you can't trust an alpaca, who can you trust? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 (edited) Matt Schaub in the top 12 for QB production in Week 1? That is gong out on a limb. Color me skeptical. Edited September 4, 2007 by CaptainHook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 (edited) Nice job. There's something almost vaguely familiar about it, but I really like it. Don't necessarily concur with all projections, but I'll be curious to see who things unfold for you after Week 1. Edited September 5, 2007 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 I thought it was a pretty good read but, I think you're gonna get nailed as spam for the link you posted. Oh, and it's Crayton, not Clayton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Alpaca Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 I thought it was a pretty good read but, I think you're gonna get nailed as spam for the link you posted. Oh, and it's Crayton, not Clayton. I sure hope not, but if the powers that be don't like the linkage, I'd be happy to do away with it. Thanks for catching the typo. Going to fix it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Alpaca Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 Nice job. There's something almost vaguely familiar about it, but I really like it. Don't necessarily concur with all projections, but I'll be curious to see who things unfold for you after Week 1. Thanks very much for checking it out. The format is quite frankly blatantly ripped off from other sites/message boards, so that probably explains the familiar feel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Alpaca Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 If you can't trust an alpaca, who can you trust? Not just any Alpaca. A RAGING ALPACA™. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOO Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Not bad dood. I've seen your name pop up at the Saints board lately too. You better be right though - a tad less cordial here than there - especially for member numbers over 16K with bold "check my cool projection" posts. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Alpaca Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 Not bad dood. I've seen your name pop up at the Saints board lately too. You better be right though - a tad less cordial here than there - especially for member numbers over 16K with bold "check my cool projection" posts. Good luck. I'll be sure to take my medicine next week if things don't turn out well. But truthfully, I just really enjoy writing about fantasy football as a way to take a break from work, and thus am sharing my thoughts with the community for their feedback/ridicule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 I'll be sure to take my medicine next week if things don't turn out well. But truthfully, I just really enjoy writing about fantasy football as a way to take a break from work, and thus am sharing my thoughts with the community for their feedback/ridicule. Admitting that you have a problem is the first step. Let me know if you need a sponsor. I've been there, man. I've been there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Good stuff RA, glad to have another Saints Faithful on board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Definitely good stuff, but whats with all the 3rd person talk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 I've got both Schaub and Kitna (don't ask) and was contemplating the switch to Schaub. If he can't come out guns blazing against the lowly Chefs, who can he exploit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Alpaca Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 Definitely good stuff, but whats with all the 3rd person talk? Ah, just having some fun. Maybe too much exposure to Joe Horn for all those years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Ah, just having some fun. Maybe too much exposure to Joe Horn for all those years? I think youll fit in well here. You take critisim well... Enjoy your stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 I've got both Schaub and Kitna (don't ask) and was contemplating the switch to Schaub. If he can't come out guns blazing against the lowly Chefs, who can he exploit? I don't see the Texans falling way behind the lowly Chiefs...I doubt this will be the game that Schaub buts up stellar fantasy numbers. Rather, look for him to post great stats in games where the Texans will be playing catch-up for 2-3 quarters. I see Sunday as a big Ahman Green day, as the Texans look to control the ball and clock, and keep LJ on the sidelines. Schaub may have good numbers from an NFL perspective (15/20, 175 yds, 1 TD, no INTs) , but Kitna is your guy from a fantasy persepctive (250 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Admitting that you have a problem is the first step. Let me know if you need a sponsor. I've been there, man. I've been there. I still use your QB platooning strategy. Has worked well for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 For God's sake stop with the third party all caps self-reference. We get it, you are a hairy, ill-tempered beast that burps and spits. Not so rare around these parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nhoops Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Was debating starting Delhomme over Y.Voung due to matchups in 1 league before reading this.......I might just do that. Although I will be starting Kitna, Roy Williams and C.Johnson in various leagues......I am drinking the koolaid and for now the raiders koolaid is tainted to me. Nice work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Was debating starting Delhomme over Y.Voung due to matchups in 1 league before reading this.......I might just do that. Although I will be starting Kitna, Roy Williams and C.Johnson in various leagues......I am drinking the koolaid and for now the raiders koolaid is tainted to me. Nice work. speaking of the Raiders...I like C-Pep and Jordan a lot this week... I just don't know which WR will get the job done.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Definitely good stuff, but whats with all the 3rd person talk? Surely you don't expect an alpaca to give reasoned FF advice AND log on to the internets and type it out, do you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 speaking of the Raiders...I like C-Pep and Jordan a lot this week... I just don't know which WR will get the job done.... Curry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Alpaca Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 For God's sake stop with the third party all caps self-reference. We get it, you are a hairy, ill-tempered beast that burps and spits. Not so rare around these parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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