theeohiostate Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 (edited) I can't find a piece of positive news from any company in America making any money. Job losses are huge and I'd imagine after the Holiday Season that retailers will be solving people to unemployment by the 10's of thousands. The US Dollar is falling so fast it's scary. Credit Card companies are canceling credit and raising interests rates. Banks won't lend money. Madoff screws investors for 50+ billion and I'm sure there are many other hedge fund companies doing the same ponzi scheme. I see on 60 minutes that the commercial real estate is ready to implode like the housing market did. All this negative news and much much more and our Markets continue to rise? Most confusing thing I've ever seen. Is Wall Street trying to create another bubble to burst soon ? Will these fools ever learn ? Edited December 17, 2008 by theeohiostate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Soup Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Because the Fed dropped the key rate to almost 0%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted December 17, 2008 Author Share Posted December 17, 2008 Because the Fed dropped the key rate to almost 0%? Which directly sent the dollar down. Rally on a declining dollar ? The rate cuts have failed to do anything for the economy thus far(aside of providing banks more reason to invest outside our country), why would 1% to 0-0.25% be any different ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Which directly sent the dollar down. Rally on a declining dollar ? The rate cuts have failed to do anything for the economy thus far(aside of providing banks more reason to invest outside our country), why would 1% to 0-0.25% be any different ? The rate decrease are saving my behind. I am in real estate and in the market. Instead of being cash strapped I am pretty cash flow strong. I am spending instead of going to foreclosure(not really). The market is ALWAYS forward looking. Todays news is being shrugged off by the market b/c it is priced into current prices. The VIX(volatility) and TED spread (investment risk indicator) also improving. Although they are far from a healthy range they are declining. The FED gave us a vote of confidence today in that they will do anything to help. A weak US dollar is not the end of the world. It does help foreign investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Also 1% going to 0% is BIG in my book. Say you have commercial paper tied to prime and you were paying 4%. Now your rate is 3%. That is a 25% reduction in interest expenses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Hos gotta eat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Which directly sent the dollar down. Rally on a declining dollar ? A weak dollar boosts exports The rate cuts have failed to do anything for the economy thus far You can't say that for sure. For instance, just think how bad things would be if they had kept the fed funds rate at around 5%. Having said that, I think the Fed is almost played out with respect to how it can affect the economy (it could still start buying long-term bonds). It is basically up to fiscal policy to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 well of course, you have to look at the big picture....where stock prices are depressed hugh amounts from where they were a few months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted December 17, 2008 Author Share Posted December 17, 2008 (edited) I think this government created house of cards is being built on hopes and dreams and no substance right now. This thing is gonna tank soon. The new balloon they're trying to create will pop anytime now. How much are they going to cut rates now when we have huge unemployment after the holiday season, more banks go under, horrible 4th quarter reports and more Madoff's are unveiled? The printing press is running out of ink isn't it ? Edited December 17, 2008 by theeohiostate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polksalet Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 WMT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted December 17, 2008 Author Share Posted December 17, 2008 TGT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 I think this government created house of cards is being built on hopes and dreams Not fair dude, he isn't sworn in until Jan 20th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 I think this government created house of cards is being built on hopes and dreams and no substance right now. This thing is gonna tank soon. The new balloon they're trying to create will pop anytime now. How much are they going to cut rates now when we have huge unemployment after the holiday season, more banks go under, horrible 4th quarter reports and more Madoff's are unveiled? The printing press is running out of ink isn't it ? When I hear these types of statements I BUY and then I BUY some more. Do you have some stock I can buy from you? "I think this government created house of cards is being built on hopes and dreams and no substance right now." What is this house they built? IMHO I think this is only going to strengthen our economy. With the the extreme amount of deleveraging these rate cuts will be tempered. Banks will go to sane underwriting for the most part. We will ALWAYS have bubbles for the rest of times. It is just human nature. All aboard the bond and treasury bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 They aren't calling down 50%, then rising 5% a bubble nowadays, are they? I mean, I know the human race attention span is about 4.3 seconds, but haven't they noticed what's happened to the market the last year? A bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 my thoughts are that there is no one around to sell right now. any short hedge fund has killed it this year. so they either are done for the year or closed up shop for good. the risk-reward for a short shop is great with the market at its lows. Hedge fund manager Fleckenstein closing down Short Fund - DJ : DJ reports hedge fund manager Bill Fleckenstein writes in his Daily Rap column that he's closing down his Fleckenstein Capital fund because he no longer wants to run a short fund. Describing running a short-only fund as "stressful, nerve-wracking and generally not very much fun, he said he became a short seller in part because of the "bubble" he saw forming because of Alan Greenspan-era policies and because of widespread lack of respect for risk. "However, the recent carnage in the stock market, real estate market and the financial system (as well as the job losses) has washed away those excesses to a large degree and it has violently demonstrated the risks associated with investing," he wrote. He said that though he believes the stock market "still has unfinished business on the downside," he said 2009 will be the time "to prepare for a return to managing money in a more balanced fashion, with longs (and some shorts), as there are currently plenty of interesting ideas that appear to offer a margin of safety." Fleckenstein said he'll return to investing using a more balanced investing approach in a vehicle that will not be a hedge fund. and joe public isnt selling either. they are either already out of the market or are holding on to their positions down here. so since the sellers are not around and there are a few buyers, the market slowly goes up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Not sure about the rest, but the rate decreases have been a boom to us (personally an professionally). Out home equity is tied to prime, and the cuts have basically meant I am paying about $450 less in interest per month than I was before the cuts began last summer. That money has allowed us to continue to spend for essentials, home improvement, and the occasional quasi-luxury item. Had that extra $450 not been there, we definitely would have not frequented restaurants/hotels/higher-end retialers/etc. That helps the economy. Some of that extra cash has also allowed us to comfortably pay off some other debts. I imagine there are those whose "other debts" may have been borderline default had the money saved from interest not been made available. Similarly, we have many commerical loans that float to prime, and the reduction in interest expense has allowed us to maintain certain levels of employment in our hotels (rather than cutting people to make sure we can meet our debt service). For deals we are evaluating, the loans we can put in place, at reduced debt service, can allow us to comfortably maintain a 1.2 or greater debt service ratio, which gets the deal done. we then renovate the hotels, employing many different trades, as well as purchase millions of dollars worth of furniture/carpet/etc, which as you can see, continues to keep the economy moving. its not a house of cards...its an effective way to keep those than are willing to spend and employ able to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Dmarc, should the SEC have stopped the shorts earlier like some are saying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 Dmarc, should the SEC have stopped the shorts earlier like some are saying? i dont think so. if a company is not run well, it should be shorted. now rumor mongering that some claim happened should be looked into. maybe the uptick rule could be reinstated too. the one thing i want is for the sec to be consistant. dont change the rules in the middle of the game. but i do think that you should be able to short a company that isnt performing well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 i dont think so. if a company is not run well, it should be shorted. now rumor mongering that some claim happened should be looked into. maybe the uptick rule could be reinstated too. the one thing i want is for the sec to be consistant. dont change the rules in the middle of the game. but i do think that you should be able to short a company that isnt performing well. The uptick should be reinstated, but I am not sure what you mean "in the middle of the game."??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 (edited) The uptick should be reinstated, but I am not sure what you mean "in the middle of the game."??? im was refering to the instance when they ruled that you could not short the financials a few months ago. granted we made a ton of money on that day, but the govt needs to be consistant. make rules and stick to them. granted the uptick rule will not be a good thing for me, but should help to stabilize things a little. Edited December 17, 2008 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 We should change rules for stability even if it is "middle game". What we should not do is not make a rule change to appease the short interest. Making rules and sticking with them is not appropriate in the face of a crisis. I know some could argue stable rules improves confidence but a short storm is not stable. I am not a fan of shorting stocks,but am not total apposed to it. I am a business man at heart and shorting has no use to me....it is for traders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted December 17, 2008 Author Share Posted December 17, 2008 Nice penny stock if anyone plays them NVD I got in this morning at $.20 , closed at $.41 ......and holding Here is their website http://www.novadel.com/ Here is their pipeline http://www.novadel.com/pipeline/index.htm You'll like what you see. No official news has yet to be release on new drugs, but when it does, this stock will have some long legs. Makings of a $5 stock. Thanks to TommyGun for the pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted December 17, 2008 Share Posted December 17, 2008 The market is rising? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBoog Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 Also, the mainstream media got their man in office and the "doom and gloom, everything sucks" barrage of crappy news we've had to scare us into voting for a particular candidate has calmed down a lot. People are starting to calm down and realize the world isn't really ending after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 Also, the mainstream media got their man in office and the "doom and gloom, everything sucks" barrage of crappy news we've had to scare us into voting for a particular candidate has calmed down a lot. People are starting to calm down and realize the world isn't really ending after all. I thought I was the only one who noticed that. I can now watch the news without taking some sort of mood enhancement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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