DMD Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 2007 Top Ten and where they ended up in 2008 1. R andy Moss (10) 2. Terrell Owens (9) 3. Braylon Edwards (36) 4. Reggie Wayne (14) 5. Larry Fitzgerald (1) 6. Chad OchoCinco (50) 7. T.J. Houshmandzandeh (31) 8. Marques Colston (35) 9. Brandon Marshall (11) 10. Plaxico Burress (59) Amazingly, Wide Receivers are being drafted very early this year and yet they come off a season where the previous top ten only placed three players into the top ten the next year - and two of those came in 9th and 10th. In most years, it is half of the players in the top ten who will not return the next year. Which 5 players do you think are most likely to fall? Last year's top ten looked a lot like how people are drafting but you know half (at least) are going to be a disappointment. As a symbol of disappointment, consider the average draft positions of WR currently and where they ranked last season: 1 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI (1) 2 Johnson, Andre HOU (2) 3 Johnson, Calvin DET (3) 4 Moss, Randy NEP (10) 5 Jennings, Greg GBP (4) 6 Wayne, Reggie IND (14) 7 White, Roddy ATL (6) 8 Smith, Steve CAR (5) 9 Boldin, Anquan ARI (7) 10 Colston, Marques NOS (35) Only two were not top ten last year. And that never happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Barring injury, I think Moss, Fitz, A Johnson, and S Smith are top 10 locks. That leaves C Johnson, Jennings, White , Boldin, Bryant, and Owens for me to pick 5 from. The one with the least risk to me is Jennings. He's on a top O with an emerging stud QB, and he has an uncanny open field ability that allows he to turn 12 yd passes into 60 yd TDs. That means I need to find some fault with the rest of them. C Johnson is easy - he may be tied to a rookie QB for a lrge portion of the season. Most rookie QBs do not experience the success that Ryan did last year, and CJ has no legitimate running mate at the other WR, unless B Johnson steps up like he looked like he might have the potential to do in AZ. A rookie TE doesn't help him much either. The thing that makes him almost impossible to count out of any top 10 is that DET will be throwing to him early & often in almost every game and that he is so physically dominant that double covering is probably not enough to remove him from the top 10. White is a little easier. ATL has a dynamic O, but they also are shaking out as the best team in the NFC South. They will run the ball a significant amount, and when they do throw White has to share with Jenkins and now Gonzalez. Regardless, White is talented and I don't see Ryan doing anything but improving, so if White were to fall out of the top 10 somehow, I don't see him slipping too far. Boldin's issue has never been his talent - he's as capable a WR as Fitz. It's been a problem of his health, and now he is showing attitude issues with his pouting on the sideline at times last season as well as his contract situation. Add the emergence of Breaston to the mix and you have a real boom-or-bust situation with Boldin. If he gets his head on straight and can stay healthy, he's a top 5 WR. But the caveats are too much to ignore, and there's a real risk for any fantasy team that he could damage a WR corps significantly for a good portion of the season. Bryant is easy to find flaws - flash in the pan, came out of nowhere after 5 seasons of mostly mediocre to sometimes solid efforts with 4 different teams (actually 3, he flip flopped with both CLE & DAL twice). There is a very unsettled QB situation in TB, where they lose a very underappreciated Garcia and have to move on with the best of McCown, Leftwich, Griese, Freeman, or Johnson - and whomever loses that battle and sticks with the team besides the rookie Freeman is probably going to feel robbed. I get the feeling that TB is hanging on the edge of a precipice and won't be able to help falling over. They are loaded with journeymen at all O skill positions and last year managed to wring a credible O out of the mess. I think it could have just as easily turned into #### stew, and expect that it very well could happen a year later with Garcia missing. Owens - my personal dislike for the guy aside - has reached an age where WRs decline very, very quickly. He is going to an O where a talented but can't-seem-to-put-it-all-together Trent Edwards is the triggerman. BUF has already had one very talented WR in Lee Evans languishing for years in a very limited passing attack. To think TO can come in and in his first year at this stage in his career put up top 10 numbers seems like awfully pie-in-the-sky optimism. If I had to guess, I don't think I could throw 5 of these guys out of the top 10. CJ belongs in the top 10 - no question in my mind - as much as Jennings does. Boldin is close to a lock also, but has enough risk that I could justify placing him on the outside. White is pretty close to being at the same level as Boldin, but the risk/reward quotient isn't quite as large. Bryant & Owens are the two I'd throw out without hesitation, acknowledging that either could slip in, but the likelihood to me just isn't very great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Owens + New Offense + T.Edwards + 38 = Top 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 For what it's worth, I voted: Roddy White Anquan Boldin Antonio Bryant Terrell Owens & C Johnson <- this was the hardest for me to do. I grew up watching Barry Sanders and am a bit of a Lions fan, but there are just a lot of questions with an entire new coaching staff, new QB (possibly rookie or re-retread), and the same mediocre O line. I still think the guy will put up good stats, I just don't know if they will be productive enough to be top 10. I hope I'm wrong but I just can't ignore the risk in his equation. So I still think Megatron is a stud, but there is still a chance he can't be as amazing on this rebuilding team (and it might be possible that they aren't behind by 25 at half time with Sims, Foote, & Peterson at LB). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Wow. That is as hard of a question as I've seen. All seem great!! I didn't want to pick on Bryant, so I picked Roddy White. Tony G is going to steal lots of catches, which will put him at #11! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 (edited) Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, Steve Smith are the three I would pick, but when forced to choose two more I would take Calvin Johnson and Anquan Boldin, the former for the QB situation and coaching change and the latter for the injury history. Edited July 9, 2009 by Caveman_Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 ahhhh megatron....still have fond memories of taking him with the first pick in the 4th round last year as my #1 receiver...and he did it....helped me to a second place finish(should have been a championship if i didnt make a boneheaded lineup decision in week 16 with my qb...but i tried to get too cute)....the guy got it done regardless....alot of the time it wasnt pretty though...lotta garbage time production...cant remember what game it was...but i think he caught a long td on like the last play of the first half(minny? indy?)....went for 100 and 2 tds in week 17 which was huge if yer league was still playing 4 qbs...and considering the overall bad vibes surrounding that team last year...and he still placed where he did and showed no quit....i cant help but be very impressed....this year...they will have much more of a buzz surrounding them...and maybe schwartz, stafford, and co. can change the atmosphere around there...like bronco billy pointed out....few rookie qbs will have the type of success that ryan had last year....the question is will they have a running game to help stafford along like ryan had? well probably not...it doesnt have to be that good to help stafford....but the running game does need some life.....but i didnt see them add much if anything to help that line(jon jansen doesnt do much for me anymore)....i dunno...maybe cherlius takes a major step forward in year two bronco billy-i like the b. johnson signing probably more than you do...i think he can be a nice fit there as a #2....he went to san fran on a 1 year deal...hoping to get the opportunity to catch alot of balls there, be the guy, and parlay that into a nice contract....didnt really work out....lot of inconsistent qb play..and for the most part...san fran was a mess untill they started to pick it up the last 5 weeks...theyve also added dennis northcutt to the mix...probably to play in the slot....not to mention all you hear is great things about pettigrew...and the relationship hes built with stafford.....i think obviously the key is the running and the defense being able to keep games competitive(a strong runinng game is what help ryan...and a good running game and defense is what helped flacco).... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgcoach Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Megatron??? Wasn't he the transformer that got his arse kicked at the end of the movie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashingtonD Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 I think it's especially hard to project this one out, because if you look at what DMD posted initially, most of the WRs on that list dropped for 1 reason...injury, either to themselves or to their starting QB. 1. Randy Moss (10) - Injury to QB 2. Terrell Owens (9) 3. Braylon Edwards (36) - Forgot he was a professional football player/mental midget 4. Reggie Wayne (14) - Injury to his QB 5. Larry Fitzgerald (1) 6. Chad OchoCinco (50) - Injury to his QB 7. T.J. Houshmandzandeh (31) - Injury to his QB 8. Marques Colston (35) - Injury to himself 9. Brandon Marshall (11) - mental midget 10. Plaxico Burress (59) - self inflicted injury to himself/mental midget Ok, so it breaks down to injuries and mental midgetry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 I only voted for 3 - Johnson, Bryant and Owens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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