CaP'N GRuNGe Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2009 to 07/23/2009 is 14.3% What are you doing with your 401K / IRA holdings for the rest of 2009 and into 2010? Anybody have any good mutual funds, strategies, etc. they feel pretty comfortable with? I guess we could discuss individual stocks as well for those that are into that kind of investing. Oh, and the doomsayers who want to horde gold are welcome too. I'm thinking of putting some of my 401K into China. Anyone have any opinions on oil and where it's heading? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Keep in mind that if you are picking individual assets and think you are going to make an above average return (after adjusting for risk, liquidity, etc.) you are assuming 2 things: 1) that you are smarter than the overall market & 2) that the overall market will become as smart as you are before you need to liquidate your assets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 2nd half of the year will be interesting. I'm too tired to comment. As it regards the S&P500 over the rest of the year, my personal guess is that the max upside from here is +15% (i.e., S&P 1100) and the max downside is -40% (i.e., S&P 600) and we are probably down something in the range of -10% from here on out (i.e., the S&P500 closes somewhere in the 900 range). That said, I'm long the market (but only a little bit) right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Keep in mind that if you are picking individual assets and think you are going to make an above average return (after adjusting for risk, liquidity, etc.) you are assuming 2 things: 1) that you are smarter than the overall market & 2) that the overall market will become as smart as you are before you need to liquidate your assets You should write a book, weeg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Rate of return - 18.1%. No interest in farting around with it as I really only understand the basics. Judging by how many so-called experts get burned, fiddling about with it is akin to throwing dice blindfold anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 (edited) Keep in mind that if you are picking individual assets and think you are going to make an above average return (after adjusting for risk, liquidity, etc.) you are assuming 2 things: 1) that you are smarter than the overall market & 2) that the overall market will become as smart as you are before you need to liquidate your assets No individual assets, mutual funds. But I am interested in foreign markets and market sectors. Edited July 24, 2009 by CaP'N GRuNGe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 No individual assets, mutual funds. But I am interested in foreign markets and market sectors. Mutual funds are individual assets. If you doubt me, look at your brokerage statement and see if they break our your proportional holdings, or if there is a single line item. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Good timing since we just did our pfs. Up 10.2 % for the year and now back to the networth we had the month we retired which was Jan 1st 2005. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 What are you doing with your 401K / IRA holdings for the rest of 2009 and into 2010? Probably realize even more of what a scam the whole stock market/401k is. I'm long and strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polksalet Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Don't know what mine is for the year but it is pretty high as I bought large (for me) into Russell 2k in March. Now my new purchases are as follows. 25% Russell 1K 25% Russell 2K 25% S&P 500 25% Asia Emerging Markets I know I don't a good handle on what in the heck I'm doing with this but I think I understand as much as many guys on Wall Street about what can really happen. Anybody have any comments on this? My primary investment vehicle is a piece of land near here. If it all hits the fan I can live on it and raise pintos and goat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Since the dow is up like a half percent for the year, I am impressed with all of your returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polksalet Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Since the dow is up like a half percent for the year, I am impressed with all of your returns. My pos returns are a fluke of chance in that our 401k match and profit sharing came out while the market was tanked. This is further evidence of Muck's philosophy of financial luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 (edited) Keep in mind that if you are picking individual assets and think you are going to make an above average return (after adjusting for risk, liquidity, etc.) you are assuming 2 things: 1) that you are smarter than the overall market & 2) that the overall market will become as smart as you are before you need to liquidate your assets This doesn't make sense to me. Are you saying that you should not buy individual stocks? If so, could you provide more detail on why you believe this? I don't agree with your statement. E2A: I bought about 6 different stocks in May, then sold them all on June 5 (Market started down on June 11). After a confirmed bottom a few weeks ago, I bought FSLR at $146, sold it last week at $168. I just can't get myself to trust any type of 'fund' when I can do my own research and pick a handful of stocks I think will breakout. Really though, when the market is going up, most stocks will follow and vice versa - so then it's about forseeing market reversals and taking the appropriate action. Edited July 27, 2009 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 (edited) All my funds have bounced back nicely, but we have a ways to go to get back to where they were. You know, before our economy fell off a cliff! I'm holding for a while longer (not too eager to sell anything and lock in those losses) and am going to discuss all my household finances with a financial professional. I won't pretend to know what I am doing and this is just too darn important to mess up. Glad to see that, for the most part, y'all are doing better! Edited July 27, 2009 by The Wolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Your Account Summary Statement Period: 01/01/2009 to 07/24/2009 Your Personal Rate of Return This Period 14.1% Your Personal Rate of Return is calculated with a time-weighted formula, widely used by financial analysts to calculate investment earnings. It reflects the results of your investment selections as well as any activity in the plan account(s) shown. There are other Personal Rate of Return formulas used that may yield different results. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. I have 73% in various stocks, 22% in bonds, and 5% in short term investments. Meh...still got a bit to go to recoup the last 2 years or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Just rebalanced and dropped a Fidelity index fund I was in. New mix, 20% each: FCNTX Contra FMAGX Magellan FLPSX Low Priced FICDX Canada FHKCX China Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Through June 30th: Best investment has had an 80% return since March 1st (an unleveraged portfolio of banking / insurance / finance / automotive industry bonds). Worst investment has had an unknown return (may be up, may be down, not sure how much in either direction). Most investments are within 10% of breakeven for the year (i.e., no big deal). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Worst investment has had an unknown return (may be up, may be down, not sure how much in either direction). Come on, Muck--your clients are waiting for you to scratch off those instant lottery tickets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 Come on, Muck--your clients are waiting for you to scratch off those instant lottery tickets. With his old sigline about the lottery being a tax on the stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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