Be The Huddle Market Guru. Predict the stock market.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I didn't even play.

hilarious ...

[Jackass]

Do you even pay attention to the world economy? If you don't brace yourself for a complete financial collapse over the next several years then you will be led to slaughter my friend. Laugh at me all you want, but there is serious diaper dirt going on in the world economies. I do know what I'm talking about I just haven't been able to accurately predict when the structure will completely crack in the stock market. It's fractured and barely staying afloat, this is fact. We did see glimpses of this fractured market during the 'flash crash' early this summer and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Be prepared is all I'm saying and have been saying - cash is your friend.

 

I'm starting to think you may be slightly 'challenged.'

[Brentastic]

I'm starting to think you may be slightly 'challenged.'

That's a 'NO' then. You obviously do not pay attention to the global economy or even the US economy for that matter. Sucks to be you. I hope you're all in on equities, pal

[wiegie]

I pay attention to the world economy.

 

Do I think the world economy is in good shape today? No.

 

Do I think the world economy is going to collapse? No.

 

Two years ago did I think that there was a chance that the world economy was going to collapse? Yes.

 

Have I at any time thought that Brent has any special insight into the world economy? No.

 

At any time in the last year have any of Brent's economic predictions come anywhere close to be correct? No.

[Brentastic]

I pay attention to the world economy.

 

Do I think the world economy is in good shape today? No.

 

Do I think the world economy is going to collapse? No.

 

Two years ago did I think that there was a chance that the world economy was going to collapse? Yes.

 

Have I at any time thought that Brent has any special insight into the world economy? No.

At any time in the last year have any of Brent's economic predictions come anywhere close to be correct? No.

The bolded part is not accurate because I have been very consistent in my timeframe, which is several years (about 5 until we hit the bottom). The only thing I've missed on is my prediction that we'd be at dow 5k by the end of this year and even that prediction I've modified but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. What does matter and what I've reiterated time and again is that the next several years is going to bring a complete stock market collapse. The Federal Reserve Bank is a gang of corrupt bankers and you're on their side, so anything you say is irrelevant and wrong.

[cre8tiff]

The bolded part is not accurate because I have been very consistent in my timeframe, which is several years (about 5 until we hit the bottom). The only thing I've missed on is my prediction that we'd be at dow 5k by the end of this year and even that prediction I've modified but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. What does matter and what I've reiterated time and again is that the next several years is going to bring a complete stock market collapse. The Federal Reserve Bank is a gang of corrupt bankers and you're on their side, so anything you say is irrelevant and wrong.

 

So basically, we can start heckling you on Jan 1, 2013? I'm trying to get the timeframe down, so I can put it on my calendar.

[Jackass]

So basically, we can start heckling you on Jan 1, 2013? I'm trying to get the timeframe down, so I can put it on my calendar.

 

This will be his post on Jan 1, 2013.

 

The bolded part is not accurate because I have been very consistent in my timeframe, which is several years (about 5 until we hit the bottom). The only thing I've missed on is my prediction that we'd be at dow 5k by the end of this year and even that prediction I've modified but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. What does matter and what I've reiterated time and again is that the next several years is going to bring a complete stock market collapse. The Federal Reserve Bank is a gang of corrupt bankers and you're on their side, so anything you say is irrelevant and wrong.

[wiegie]

The bolded part is not accurate

The bolded part was indeed accurate: you really have yet to be anywhere close to being correct in any of your predictions.

[Brentastic]

So basically, we can start heckling you on Jan 1, 2013? I'm trying to get the timeframe down, so I can put it on my calendar.

I'm thinking we bottom in 2016 but by 2013 the market should be well on it's way. Although I'm not sure what math you're doing to come up with 2013? But hey, whatever floats your boat. The point of all my posts is not to be right, the point is to warn everyone of the impending doom. If in the end, I'm wrong on all of this, the only harm done would be missing out on gains - but that's still better than losing it all or losing most of your portfolio. This is a once-a-century crash I'm warning of, not a minor correction.

[Brentastic]

The bolded part was indeed accurate: you really have yet to be anywhere close to being correct in any of your predictions.

Not true. Everything is relative and obviously you're too blinded to see the long-term picture I've been talking about for the last year.

 

Go ahead, keep buying stocks for the long-term and see how the end result works out for you. I'm done trying to explain smart to stupid.

[wiegie]

Not true. Everything is relative and obviously you're too blinded to see the long-term picture I've been talking about for the last year.

 

Go ahead, keep buying stocks for the long-term and see how the end result works out for you. I'm done trying to explain smart to stupid.

Please, go through the logic of how the crash is going to happen. You keep saying it will happen, but you don't say why it will happen. (You do blame the Fed a lot for what is going to happen, but that isn't the same as explaining the mechanism behind the crash itself.)

 

Your reasoning goes sort of like this:

 

Step One: Underpants (meaning: Fed)

Step Two: undecipherablemumble

Step Three: Profits (meaning: Crash)

 

In other words, you are the Underpants Gnome of the financial system.

[Brentastic]

There are too many reasons to state but I will paste an email from a friend that sums it up nicely. This may be taken from an article, it definitely reads like an article. Nonetheless, this summarizes most of what I believe. There's more to it than what reads below but it's a start. But essentially, the stock market is a direct reflection of investor mood and the mood has been negative for the last decade - BUT, the market will never move straight down or straight up. The rally of the last 2 years is a bear market rally. If you look at a longer term chart (3-5 years) you will see the trend is still down. Until we break the peak of 2007, we are still in a bear market. I believe over the next few years all of my 'whacky' predictions will be reality and if not then I will be thankful. Anyways, here's the summation:

 

Stocks are setting up for the third major top of the past decade. The evidence for markets approaching a major top include historic bullish sentiment extremes from advisers, investors and mutual funds, which have their cash levels at one of the lowest levels ever. This extreme bullish sentiment is a contrary indicator, and these types of extremes are associated with major tops, not minor tops. We also have an alignment of extreme overbought readings in the monthly, weekly and daily stochastics. Then there is the bearish divergence between the NYSE and the cumulative NYSE advance/decline Line. The Elliott Wave count fits nicely inside this backdrop, having satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave picture. There are also bearish inter-market divergences between major stock indices, where some have exceeded their April 2010 highs and others, such as the bank index (BKX), have not. Healthy markets do not go anywhere without the financials, especially since the U.S. has become so finance-oriented (meaning leveraged).Demand for stocks is weak, and it is unlikely that supply will overwhelm the market over the holidays, but not impossible. This gives investors a chance to prepare for what should be a return of the bear market in 2011. There is a confirmed Hindenburg Omen on the clock, with little interest about it this time from the mainstream. Last August, the media were all over the Hindenburg, and perhaps that was the reason for its ineffectiveness (only about 7% of the time does a confirmed Hindenburg not manifest). Historically, there has never been a market decline of more than 15% without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. The fact that one was just generated raises the odds of a crash in the next four months from less than 1% under non-Hindenburg conditions to 28%-plus between now and early April. We've reported many times before how the full moon/new moon cycle can influence markets, in both the short and long term, because of the emotional tides in our bodies. We've mentioned Fibonacci turn dates recently that are due in the next one to three weeks (Dec. 26-Jan. 11). We've highlighted the uniformity of the crowd's complacency toward risk (historically matching or reaching record extremes of bullishness among traders, the public, advisers and mutual fund managers). The volatility index (VIX) is at the lowest level since April, and at levels where major peaks in stocks have appeared in the past four years (October 2007, May 2008 and April 2010). Do you really want to remain fully invested here? Together, these factors strongly suggest that investors exit long stock exposure to at least allow a correction, if not the start of the third major decline of the decade. Certainly, the smart money is doing just that, as Friday's quadruple-witching saw the biggest total volume since the April peak, with over 2 billion shares traded. What's interesting is that the Dow was negative Friday and Monday, while the other indices were barely positive. This is known as distribution. In the meantime, while the "smart guys" move their money out of harm's way, the rest of us are pumping money into the lesser indices such as the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, looking for the proverbial dead horse to beat. Supporting the "dead horse" analogy, the number of new 52-week highs peaked at the November high, made a much lower high in December and has been falling sharply ever since.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

Phases of the moon? I don't think you're helping yourself any Brent. What's a Hindenberg Omen?

[Brentastic]

Phases of the moon? I don't think you're helping yourself any Brent. What's a Hindenberg Omen?

Hey, I'm not naive or arrogant enough to believe we humans aren't susceptible to natural tendencies. I look at everything for patterns, including the heavens. It's not the entire pie, just a small sliver. Plus, I don't care what people think of me. I know what works for me and I'm a seeker of truth, nothing else.

 

Moving on to the hidenburg omen:

MechanicsThe Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash.

 

The rationale is that under "normal conditions" either a substantial number of stocks may set new annual highs or annual lows, but not both at the same time. As a healthy market possesses a degree of uniformity, whether up or down, the simultaneous presence of many new highs and lows may signal trouble.

 

There's more to it, here's the wiki page. There were a couple back in August of this year and one just last week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

[wiegie]

Hey, I'm not naive or arrogant enough to believe we humans aren't susceptible to natural tendencies.

well, that would be about the only thing

 

 

 

[Jackass]

That sounds like it was written by Charles Manson. Seriously.

[Brentastic]

That sounds like it was written by Charles Manson. Seriously.

I'm glad I'm not you. Do you 'bah' on your way to work too?

[bushwacked]

I'm done trying to explain smart to stupid.

 

 

Hey, I'm not naive or arrogant

 

 

I think these two little phrases explain everything, if you ignore how wrong you've been about everything, you're still wrong.

Edited December 23, 2010 by bushwacked

[Jackass]

I'm glad I'm not you. Do you 'bah' on your way to work too?

 

If I'm a sheep, you're a sheep too my friend. You just seem to be flocking with the nutty ones.

[MikesVikes]

Updated: 12/29/2010 02:09 ET

DOW 11,617.47 +41.93

 

If anyone needs any advice, any at all, don't hesitate to call me.

 

Azazello1313 – 15000

MrTed46 – 12095

DMD – 11675

DOW 11617.47

MikesVikes – 11600

Chief Dick – 11496

 

(hopefully you can call on DMD or MrTed46 before the year is over.)

Edited December 29, 2010 by MikesVikes

[bpwallace49]

Phases of the moon?

 

That article reads like part of the script for the next Dan Brown novel about the mysterious symbols in the NYSE and how they interact with the Illuminati, Freemasons, Wiccans, people that play World of Warcraft and the antichrist Sarah Palin in cahoots with the Bilderburger cabal.

 

In general I think that people that think they can predict the unpredictable are amusing. (in a non-specific sense here)

[MikesVikes]

Do you even pay attention to the world economy? If you don't brace yourself for a complete financial collapse over the next several years then you will be led to slaughter my friend. Laugh at me all you want, but there is serious diaper dirt going on in the world economies. I do know what I'm talking about I just haven't been able to accurately predict when the structure will completely crack in the stock market. It's fractured and barely staying afloat, this is fact. We did see glimpses of this fractured market during the 'flash crash' early this summer and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Be prepared is all I'm saying and have been saying - cash is your friend.

 

That tip of the ice berg is floating in water. When the ice melts, the water is still there in another form.

[Delicious_bass]

11,577.51 +7.80 +0.07%

[Avernus]

Official Entries:

 

AC - 10523

Whomper - 10111

Untateve - 10524

Skylive5 - 10112

driveby - 10522

Chief Dick - 11496

bushwacked - 9973

CaP'N Grunge - 8989

Azazello1313 - 15000

Duchess Jack - 10113

WashingtonD - 10333

dmac117 - 8000

keggerz - 7466

Caveman Nick - 10448

bpwallace49 - 9750

Skippy - 10701

MikesVikes - 11600

Big John - 11086

Ursa Majoris - 10950

i_am_the_swammi - 8650

frankf - 11120

jetsfan - 666

DMD - 11675

Avernus - 11154

gilthorp - 11382

Sugar Manolia - 10552

TimC - 6,969

SEC=UGA - 9487

Delicious_bass - 10810

MrTed46 - 12095

cre8tiff - 11235

matt770 - 11112

Jimmy Neutron - 9781

 

It's pretty much around where many of us thought it would be....I'm bearish towards the market and even said that things would pick back up at the end of the year...

 

but I expect things to begin moving steady downward around February-April....