bdog1321 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 So after two weeks of mediocrity, is it time to admit defeat with him and try to deal him for whatever you can get, or would you stay the course and hope that he realizes preseason was over two weeks ago and it's time to try? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Don't sell low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyr0802 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Soon as his knee heals up from the top secret surgery he had he'll be back to norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Remember last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efi4eye Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 So after two weeks of mediocrity, is it time to admit defeat with him and try to deal him for whatever you can get, or would you stay the course and hope that he realizes preseason was over two weeks ago and it's time to try? You're kidding. it's two games in. He rushed for like 98 last week which isn't bad and had one crappy week. Show.me a guy who never has a bad game. If you start giving up on guys that quickly you'll be in for a.miserable season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Garrard threw a ton of INTs, they got down early, and the running game never had a chance and they gave Jennings a lot of work in the 2nd half of a blowout. If you envision this scenario playing out every game, then yes, trade MJD now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tosberg34 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Can't wait to hear what he says on his Sirius/XM "Running with MJD" show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Despite the fact that the game got out of hand and took him out of play, I have to say that MJD just doesn't look right to me. I wouldn't bother trying to move him right now, but if you aren't a bit concerned at this point you might be suffering from denial. He got outscored and outperformed by Jennings. I drafted him 5th overall in a no-trade league and I am feeling pretty screwed right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Looks eerily like a RBBC too me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebdog Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 its definitely no RBBC. but i agree that something's not right. i think he's a little dinged and Del Rio is being cautious with him on top of that. he's not gonna get any easy scores in that offense either. owners may have to wait this one out and hope for the best with his health. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearBroncos Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I think Denver made him look healthy. Denver has a way to make RB's look good. Heck, Forsett averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring Back Pat!!! Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Jacksonville CANNOT travel to the west coast. Look at what he did last year in SF. Pretty much the same stat line. And this week he goes home to face a Philly team that just got lit up by Best. I wouldn't trade him now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenzal rhomb Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I know - I may try to move Chris Johnson for a back upi tight end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Garrard threw a ton of INTs, they got down early, and the running game never had a chance and they gave Jennings a lot of work in the 2nd half of a blowout. If you envision this scenario playing out every game Yep, sounds about right for JAX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I really had a feeling that MJD was being overvalued this year. If you looked deeper at the numbers last year he was a very average back besides a ridiculous stretch in the middle of the year last year. I wouldn't try and trade him now with his value low, but I don't see him being a top 5 back this year. Possibly not even top 10 since he will be insconsistent on that awful offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balzac Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I really had a feeling that MJD was being overvalued this year. If you looked deeper at the numbers last year he was a very average back besides a ridiculous stretch in the middle of the year last year. I wouldn't try and trade him now with his value low, but I don't see him being a top 5 back this year. Possibly not even top 10 since he will be insconsistent on that awful offense. Spot on. Outside of a pretty solid game against Indy (who doesn't skewer them on the ground?) down the stretch, he was thoroughly mediocre for most of the second half of last season. While I didn't get a high enough draft slot in either of my leagues to get him this year, he was on my "stay away" list. He won't produce anywhere near a top 5 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Remember last year? Guess not, because people were panicking on him after the first 2 weeks last year. Maybe he is banged up still, but it seems like an over-reaction to one game, especially the way it played out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) Guess not, because people were panicking on him after the first 2 weeks last year. Maybe he is banged up still, but it seems like an over-reaction to one game, especially the way it played out. The writing was on the wall prior to the season. Although I love the guy as a player, he's not consistent enough to warrent where he was being drafted. Where you at, Keggerz? Back me up on this one. Edited September 20, 2010 by Capt. Stanky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 The writing was on the wall prior to the season. Although I love the guy as a player, he's not consistent enough to warrent where he was being drafted. Where you at, Keggerz? Back me up on this one. In my PPR scoring format, MJD scored the following in weeks 10-17 last year: 10 - 22.50 11 - 18.40 12 - 16.00 13 - 9.20 14 - 16.30 15 - 31.00 16 - 12.80 17 - 9.80 He was the 6th highest scoring RB in that time behind ADP and Ray Rice, 4th and 5th respectively. In these weeks Ray Rice had one game below 10 points, MJD had two (9.2 and 9.8 points). In these weeks Ray Rice and MJD had 4 games between 10 and 20 points, while ADP had 5. All remaining games were 20 and higher, with MJD the only one eclipsing 30 points in these weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 In my PPR scoring format, MJD scored the following in weeks 10-17 last year: 10 - 22.50 11 - 18.40 12 - 16.00 13 - 9.20 14 - 16.30 15 - 31.00 16 - 12.80 17 - 9.80 He was the 6th highest scoring RB in that time behind ADP and Ray Rice, 4th and 5th respectively. In these weeks Ray Rice had one game below 10 points, MJD had two (9.2 and 9.8 points). In these weeks Ray Rice and MJD had 4 games between 10 and 20 points, while ADP had 5. All remaining games were 20 and higher, with MJD the only one eclipsing 30 points in these weeks The point I was trying to make is that MJD's value was inflated if you just looked at the end of the year stats. The torrid mid-season stretch I'm talking about was from week 6-10 (4 games; bye week 7). MJD had 94 carries for 530 yards (5.6 YPC) and 7 TD's. For the other 12 games of the year he had 265 carries for 861 yards (3.2 YPC) and 8 TD's. This isn't looking at his receiving numbers, just his rushing. I just think he was being over valued this year prior to the draft. I didn't think he was top 5 going into the draft and I certainly don't think he is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) The point I was trying to make is that MJD's value was inflated if you just looked at the end of the year stats. The torrid mid-season stretch I'm talking about was from week 6-10 (4 games; bye week 7). MJD had 94 carries for 530 yards (5.6 YPC) and 7 TD's. For the other 12 games of the year he had 265 carries for 861 yards (3.2 YPC) and 8 TD's. This isn't looking at his receiving numbers, just his rushing. I just think he was being over valued this year prior to the draft. I didn't think he was top 5 going into the draft and I certainly don't think he is now. I just pulled up weeks 1 through 5 in 2009 and he was the 3rd highest scoring RB in my PPR league. Not sure what you are getting at, as far as points go, he was no less consistent than anyone outside of maybe ADP and Chris Johnson. All top consensus picks tend to be over-valued every single year. I'll admit that I passed on him at 1.4 this year, but solely because of the injury talk. Still, proclaiming MJD a 2010 bust or even significantly over-valued seems a bit premature. Edited September 20, 2010 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) been there done it no need to jump back in...ppl know my stance and if they don't they can search it but I do find it funny how I got lambasted for saying that there was cause for concerns due to some of his metrics really falling off, consistently since entering the league...and now there are bunches of people jumping on that train after the fact (not singling you out Stanky) last year he may have handled the load (which I didn't think he could do) but I wonder at what cost. Edited September 20, 2010 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I'm not so much concerned about one bad game, but no scores and only 3 catches in 2 games by a guy who's value was tied so largely to PPR does worry me, even though it's only 2 games. And I vowed not to draft him too. Really Garrard and weakness at the skill areas worries me as much as anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) some numbers to chew on and a look at what happens when you drill down some: 2009 season: 312carries 1,391yrds 4.5YPC 15TDs 2009 1st half carries (1st 8 games) 145 carries 737yds 5.08YPC 11TDs 2009 2nd half carries (last 8 games) 167 carries 654yds 3.92YPC 4TDs Edited September 21, 2010 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) some numbers to chew on and a look at what happens when you drill down some: 2009 season: 312carries 1,391yrds 4.5YPC 15TDs 2009 1st half carries (1st 8 games) 145 carries 737yds 5.08YPC 11TDs 2009 2nd half carries (last 8 games) 167 carries 654yds 3.92YPC 2TDs Those TDs aren't adding up to 15 Anyway, Adrian Peterson's YPC in the first 8 games last year was 4.81 and the dropped to 3.97 in the 2nd half. I guess he should have been avoided this year since the numbers show can't handle the load, similar to MJD? Edited September 20, 2010 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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