These are grim predictions

[MojoMan]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...=googlenews_wsj

 

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2010/12/...a_collapse_2025

 

I'm not advocating that these are right...I don't purport to know.

 

As a dumb@$$ about this kind of stuff, I find it disturbing.

Edited December 30, 2010 by MojoMan

[yo mama]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...=googlenews_wsj

 

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2010/12/...a_collapse_2025

 

I'm not advocating that these are right...I don't purport to know.

There are lots of factors in play and no single-sentence answer to the housing market issue. But here's three things I know to be true:

 

1. In many areas housing values have stabilized and, in some cases, are even going back up. All things being equal the market has probably hit bottom. But things aren't equal because...

 

2. There is a glut of foreclosures still on the market, and more to come. The laws of supply and demand dictate that as long as there is an over-supply of housing prices will be restrained from going up. And considering only 40% of foreclosure deals actually close, the process of getting those properties off the market is slow and arduous.

 

3. Mortgage interests rates have been rising from the all-time historic lows they were at earlier this year. Assuming people have a fixed monthly budget for home buying - and they stick to it - higher interest rates will reduce the price prospective buyers can afford to pay. And that ain't gonna help anyone, but the banks.

Edited December 30, 2010 by yo mama

[bpwallace49]

Second one is a interesting read. Fun to play "what if" with the future . .

[Yukon Cornelius]

the next bubble will be student loans, as the me, me and only me generation has to come clean.

[Grimm74]

the next bubble will be student loans, as the me, me and only me generation has to come clean.

 

I think I understand where you are coming, but student loans are at their highest default rates in history. Not sure if we are so worried about student loans as we are tuition. Are you referring more to college tuition inflation? Until the government gets out of this business college tuition will continue to skyrocket. When I say government I mean cheap loans, an endless supply of grants, and lots of lottery dollars. The US governments are really just chasing their own tails when it comes to funding college for the masses.

 

For the original post... life is unpredictable and media companies print what sells. Maybe the WSJ should do a piece on 2011 being a boring year where the stock markets trades laterally and hosing bumps around the bottom for another year.... I am pretty sure apocalypse sells better.

[moneymakers]

By 2020, according to current plans, the Pentagon will throw a military Hail Mary pass for a dying empire. It will launch a lethal triple canopy of advanced aerospace robotics that represents Washington's last best hope of retaining global power despite its waning economic influence. By that year, however, China's global network of communications satellites, backed by the world's most powerful supercomputers, will also be fully operational, providing Beijing with an independent platform for the weaponization of space and a powerful communications system for missile- or cyber-strikes into every quadrant of the globe.

 

Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional U.S. military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China.

 

It will be much quicker than 2020.

 

The Assyrians are coming to America and many have already arrived.

[Ursa Majoris]

The US defense budget is greater than the rest of the world's combined.

 

There are more completely insane people in this country than the rest of the world combined (see example immediately above)

 

These two things are going to eventually collide.

[Perchoutofwater]

The US defense budget is greater than the rest of the world's combined.

 

There are more completely insane people in this country than the rest of the world combined (see example immediately above)

 

These two things are going to eventually collide.

 

Defense spending needs to be cut back, and we need to drastically reduce the number of bases we have abroad, particularly in Europe. We also need to cut back entitlement spending, and increase the age for enrollment in Medicare and SS.

[evil_gop_liars]

By 2020, according to current plans, the Pentagon will throw a military Hail Mary pass for a dying empire. It will launch a lethal triple canopy of advanced aerospace robotics that represents Washington's last best hope of retaining global power despite its waning economic influence. By that year, however, China's global network of communications satellites, backed by the world's most powerful supercomputers, will also be fully operational, providing Beijing with an independent platform for the weaponization of space and a powerful communications system for missile- or cyber-strikes into every quadrant of the globe.

 

Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional U.S. military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China.

 

It will be much quicker than 2020.

 

The Assyrians are coming to America and many have already arrived.

 

So communism works after all.

[bushwacked]

By 2020, according to current plans, the Pentagon will throw a military Hail Mary pass for a dying empire. It will launch a lethal triple canopy of advanced aerospace robotics that represents Washington's last best hope of retaining global power despite its waning economic influence. By that year, however, China's global network of communications satellites, backed by the world's most powerful supercomputers, will also be fully operational, providing Beijing with an independent platform for the weaponization of space and a powerful communications system for missile- or cyber-strikes into every quadrant of the globe.

 

No way you wrote this.

[TimC]

No way you wrote this.

 

Why does Jesus hate us?

[Ursa Majoris]

No way you wrote this.

It's lifted from the second of the two links in the OP.

[wiegie]

Are you referring more to college tuition inflation? Until the government gets out of this business college tuition will continue to skyrocket. When I say government I mean cheap loans, an endless supply of grants, and lots of lottery dollars. The US governments are really just chasing their own tails when it comes to funding college for the masses.

So, you are saying that the best way to make college affordable is to make it unaffordable for more and more students. Nice.

[moneymakers]

Why does Jesus hate us?

 

 

Jesus does not hate us. He wants us to be obedient. America says it does not need God. It can fix all the problems by itself.

It compromises and justifies sin for its own convenience.

Therefore he must discipline,

 

Fat,lazy and spoiled and most of all very foolish is what this country has become.

[evil_gop_liars]

Jesus does not hate us. He wants us to be obedient. America says it does not need God. It can fix all the problems by itself.

It compromises and justifies sin for its own convenience.

Therefore he must discipline,

 

Fat,lazy and spoiled and most of all very foolish is what this country has become.

 

Good thing I believe in supply side Jesus.

[Perchoutofwater]

So, you are saying that the best way to make college affordable is to make it unaffordable for more and more students. Nice.

 

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think what he is saying is too many people are going to college, and colleges have loosened their entrance requirements so much to maximize the number of students they have. As it is we have more college graduates than we have jobs for college graduates, and the education a college graduate gets today is inferior to that received a few decades ago. We need to make going to college similar to what it was a few decades ago, and have more of the current "borderline" students going to trade schools and such. We need to focus more on quality than quantity.

[Yukon Cornelius]

We need to focus more on quality than quantity.

but that's not the American way... I.E. Wally World , online universities etc.

[Ursa Majoris]

colleges have loosened their entrance requirements so much to maximize the number of students they have.

Perhaps. When my kid went to UW-Madison, they were taking the top 25% of applicants. By the time she left four years later, they were taking less than the top 20% of applicants. The ACT entrance requirement remained pretty rigorous, as did the "college resume" requirements.

[wiegie]

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think what he is saying is too many people are going to college, and colleges have loosened their entrance requirements so much to maximize the number of students they have. As it is we have more college graduates than we have jobs for college graduates, and the education a college graduate gets today is inferior to that received a few decades ago. We need to make going to college similar to what it was a few decades ago, and have more of the current "borderline" students going to trade schools and such. We need to focus more on quality than quantity.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this.

 

My one concern for the students going to trade schools is what happens to them if there is some sort of change (technological perhaps) that suddenly makes their job obsolete. In other countries (such as, say Germany or Switzerland) where the number of people going to college is limited and most other people going into skills-training/apprenticeships there are protections in such situations (and also regulations that keep wages/benefits high for these workers). In the US we have traditionally used an "adapt or die" strategy. And we can see that many workers (say manufacturing workers) have indeed "died" in the face of technological changes and outsourcing.

 

One way to stay more adaptable to changes in the labor market is to have a broader-based education such as what is (or at least should) be provided at colleges. So, I'm not sure that we should try to limit kids going to college without a broader plan to revise our overall way of organizing our economy. (And to be honest, I'm not sure that re-organizing our economy is a good idea since the flexibility of our labor-force in responding to changing market forces has been one of the keys of our traditionally strong economic growth.)

[Ursa Majoris]

My one concern for the students going to trade schools is what happens to them if there is some sort of change (technological perhaps) that suddenly makes their job obsolete.

This is really interesting but I'm not sure what type of "sudden change" you are referring to. Seems to me that change in these fields occurs slower than in a field like e.g. software programming.

[Grimm74]

So, you are saying that the best way to make college affordable is to make it unaffordable for more and more students. Nice.

 

 

I did not provide a solution just a fact. You assumed my solution. I think reduction in these areas is apart of the solution, but will not completely help the situation. I open to hear suggestion from you.

[gbpfan1231]

I think I understand where you are coming, but student loans are at their highest default rates in history. Not sure if we are so worried about student loans as we are tuition. Are you referring more to college tuition inflation? Until the government gets out of this business college tuition will continue to skyrocket. When I say government I mean cheap loans, an endless supply of grants, and lots of lottery dollars. The US governments are really just chasing their own tails when it comes to funding college for the masses.

 

For the original post... life is unpredictable and media companies print what sells. Maybe the WSJ should do a piece on 2011 being a boring year where the stock markets trades laterally and hosing bumps around the bottom for another year.... I am pretty sure apocalypse sells better.

Could be way wrong here but could college tuition be rising because they know that the govt will continue to fork out more money so more people have the opportunity to go to school? If colleges know that the govt will add more money to the education fund why not raise tuition?? Slam dunk price increase and no loss of buyers?? I am just speculating that govt education aid is rising in tune with tuition inflation. Could be wrong but just a thought.

[Grimm74]

Could be way wrong here but could college tuition be rising because they know that the govt will continue to fork out more money so more people have the opportunity to go to school? If colleges know that the govt will add more money to the education fund why not raise tuition?? Slam dunk price increase and no loss of buyers?? I am just speculating that govt education aid is rising in tune with tuition inflation. Could be wrong but just a thought.

 

I do not think it is as conspiracy theory like in your comments but it is definitely apart of the problem. The college tuition thing is more complex but I feel this is a nice piece of the pie. In my comments I am looking at it more in a supply demand type argument then a college siting there in a room say well we know the government will hook us up or just pay up. But schools do know there is an ever growing pot of funds coming their way. When I went to school the school gym was a square room with necessary equipment and enough of it. Today my university has a Vegas like adult play ground with state of the art equipment and an absolute ton of other excesses.

 

 

But other problems are the simple fact that education is very labor intensive....and it isn't cheap labor.

[wiegie]

A major reason that tuition is rising at most public universities is because the direct support that comes from the government to the universities is decreasing (at least on a per-student basis, but in many cases in an absolute dollar sense too). For instance, at the state university where I work only about 15% of our total budget now comes from the state (down from I believe 50% or so several decades ago). The only way to continue to finance the university is to increase tuition. (Now, some of you will have the knee-jerk reaction that we could just cut spending, but there really isn't much slack in the budget, so cutting spending means cutting stuff that students want/need.)

Edited January 4, 2011 by wiegie

[Perchoutofwater]

A major reason that tuition is rising at most public universities is because the direct support that comes from the government to the universities is decreasing (at least on a per-student basis, but in many cases in an absolute dollar sense too). For instance, at the state university where I work only about 15% of our total budget now comes from the state (down from I believe 50% or so several decades ago). The only way to continue to finance the university is to increase tuition. (Now, some of you will have the knee-jerk reaction that we could just cut spending, but there really isn't much slack in the budget, so cutting spending means cutting stuff that students want/need.)

 

Isn't that anecdotal?

 

Seriously I think the government money we are talking about here is grants and loans to students from the federal government which have increased demand significantly.