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The Jets-Steelers Matchup


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Well, that's your interpretation, not mine. Maybe, you should let, Polk speak for, himself. :wacko:

 

All I did was point, out some stats, relative to the, rushing games of both teams, that this thread, is about. Seems to me, like, I stayed on topic.

 

well thought out commant btw.

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lol! there's some good Hugh 1 humor here reinforcing why I nominated him for funniest huddler....since my beautiful Cowboys are not in the hunt, I just find myself rooting for the underdogs, so I will go for the Jets (they are the underdogs, right?) hadnt had a shot at this since 1969. They have a cute QB too, Big Ben not a very nice fella

 

 

:wacko: Dude

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Assuming your not :wacko: here

 

Unlike the Jets the Steelers have a viable NFl qb. They often throw on 3rd down and do it well. The Steelers have have more than one wr who can start for most other teams in the league and an old but fairly mean oline. They also have a superior running back. All of this translates to being better able to convert 3rd downs via the run against good teams defenses in a pinch.

so the bolded is what you mean when you say, "its about who is the better running team when it matters. "

 

and not fishing...just want to clarify your exact meaning before I go and dig into some stats is all :tup:

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Assuming your not :wacko: here

 

Unlike the Jets the Steelers have a viable NFl qb. They often throw on 3rd down and do it well. The Steelers have have more than one wr who can start for most other teams in the league and an old but fairly mean oline. They also have a superior running back. All of this translates to being better able to convert 3rd downs via the run against good teams defenses in a pinch.

 

1. To say Sanchez is not a viable NFL QB is , well, silly. He is 4-1 in road playoff games and this is only his second year. Of those 5 games, only in the win at Indy did he play poorly. Well enough to win, but not very well. That may be attributable to his shoulder injury, he didn't throw at all that week in practice. He so far has played his best in playoff games with both a higher completeion % and QB rating vs the regular season. Rothlisberger is better no doubt. but Sanchez can make plays when he has to.

 

2. You think Ward, Wallace (add any one of the others) and Miller are better than Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery and Keller? They have been more productive, but that doesn't mean they are better. The Jets don't pass if they don't have to.

 

3. Mendenhall/Moore/Redmon better than Tomlinson/Greene/B Smith? The Jets had a 4.4 YPC and 148.4 YPG rushing, 4th ranked in the NFL. The Steelers were ranked 11th with a 4.1 YPC and 120.2 YPG. The Jets rush attack is better than PIT's.

 

4. If there is one area where the Jets have a clear, definitive edge, it's the O line. Pick any category... sacks, QB hits, YPG, YPR, the Jets have the better O line across the board.

 

Did I pick the Pats to win? Yep, but I did guarantee it would not be a blowout, and despite NE's 20-2 home record, said the Jets could win that game. I said I would not be surprised if they did. Giiddy, drunk with happiness, delirious, yes, but not surprised. I think the Jets can win this game. I think the game will be won or lost in the trenches and by turnovers. Whichever team wins the battle at the line of scrimmage will go to Dallas.

 

And karma mandates I pick the Steelers here.

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Assuming your not :wacko: here

 

Unlike the Jets the Steelers have a viable NFl qb. They often throw on 3rd down and do it well. The Steelers have have more than one wr who can start for most other teams in the league and an old but fairly mean oline. They also have a superior running back. All of this translates to being better able to convert 3rd downs via the run against good teams defenses in a pinch.

ok, unfortunately 3rd down carries isn't going to be an easy thing to get stats on and would take quite a bit of time but in the meantime here are some numbers to chew on:

 

Running Back A:

YPC average while team is leading 3.5

YPC average while team is behind 4.1

Running Back B:

YPC average while team is leading 4.5

YPC average while team is behind 4.1

 

Running Back A:

YPC average while team is leading by 1-8 points: 4.5

YPC average while team is behind by 1-8 points: 4.3

Running Back B:

YPC average while team is leading by 1-8 points: 3.2

YPC average while team is behind by 1-8 points: 3.4

 

Running Back A:

YPC average at HOME: 4.1

YPC average AWAY: 4.2

Running Back B:

YPC average at HOME:3.9

YPC average AWAY: 4.0

 

Running Back A:

% of carries for 1st down: 18.8

Running Back B:

% of carries for a 1st down: 20.0

 

Running Back A:

4th Quarter carries for a 1st down: 14 (26.9%)

Running Back B:

4th Quarter carries for a 1st down: 15 (18.8%)

 

Running Back A:

YPC last two minutes of a half: 1.6 (17 carries)

Running Back B:

YPC last two minutes of a half: 5.4 (15 carries)

 

Running Back A and B aren't always the same RB( had to keep you on your toes) so try and figure out who is who for each category :tup:

 

one last thing that I looked at...How each RB did against the top 12 rushing defenses(based on YPC average)

Each RB faced a top 12 ranked D 8 times:

LT (Pitt 1st, Mia tied for 3rd (played twice), Chi tied for 5th, Bal tied for 7th, Min tied for 7th, Hou 11th and Clev 12th)

LT had a 3.74 YPC against those above teams.

 

Mendy (Mia tied for 3rd , NYJ tied for 3rd, Bal tied for 7th (played twice), Car tied for 7th , Tenn tied for 7th & Clev 12th (played twice)

Mendy had a 3.25 YPC against those above teams.

Edited by keggerz
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1. To say Sanchez is not a viable NFL QB is , well, silly. He is 4-1 in road playoff games and this is only his second year. Of those 5 games, only in the win at Indy did he play poorly. Well enough to win, but not very well. That may be attributable to his shoulder injury, he didn't throw at all that week in practice. He so far has played his best in playoff games with both a higher completeion % and QB rating vs the regular season. Rothlisberger is better no doubt. but Sanchez can make plays when he has to.

 

2. You think Ward, Wallace (add any one of the others) and Miller are better than Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery and Keller? They have been more productive, but that doesn't mean they are better. The Jets don't pass if they don't have to.

 

3. Mendenhall/Moore/Redmon better than Tomlinson/Greene/B Smith? The Jets had a 4.4 YPC and 148.4 YPG rushing, 4th ranked in the NFL. The Steelers were ranked 11th with a 4.1 YPC and 120.2 YPG. The Jets rush attack is better than PIT's.

 

4. If there is one area where the Jets have a clear, definitive edge, it's the O line. Pick any category... sacks, QB hits, YPG, YPR, the Jets have the better O line across the board.

 

Did I pick the Pats to win? Yep, but I did guarantee it would not be a blowout, and despite NE's 20-2 home record, said the Jets could win that game. I said I would not be surprised if they did. Giiddy, drunk with happiness, delirious, yes, but not surprised. I think the Jets can win this game. I think the game will be won or lost in the trenches and by turnovers. Whichever team wins the battle at the line of scrimmage will go to Dallas.

 

And karma mandates I pick the Steelers here.

 

1. There is this one guy on the Huddle that rips Sanchez apart more than anyone else............his name is Rovers. However, if someone else rips him, Rovers defends him. I'm not ripping you, it is like a family thing. You can rip him, but, when someone else does, it doesn't sit right. Trust me, I do the same thing. :wacko:

 

2. Yes, I would take the Steelers receivers over the Jets. The guy I noticed you failed to mention in your original analysis and here again is the rookie Emmanuel Sanders. I would actually consider him Ben's 2nd best WR target over the last several games. He has emerged as a very good and dangerous weapon. Trust me, this is not take away from Santonio or Braylon or Cotchery or Keller. I know how talented Santonio is, and he scares me in this game, as he has proven to be a CLUTCH player. I also know what Braylon is capable of as well. I think the Jets are talented, but, I'd take the Steelers group by a slight margin.

 

3. I would take the Jets group as a whole, but, I think Mendenhall is the most talented at this stage in their careers. However, the Jets have as good a 1-2 punch as anyone in the league. Both Tomlinson and Greene can get it done, which is a big advantage. Unfortunately, the Steelers have to work Mendenhall too much, as the drop-off to Moore & Redman is too large.

 

4. There is no doubt about this. The Jets have one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Steelers are average with their two starting tackles, without them, as they have been for almost the entire season, they are below average. I think the Jets offensive line is easily the biggest advantage they have over the Steelers. I think the Steelers biggest advantage is at QB, but, that isn't to say Sanchez can't get it done. Sanchez is very inconsistent though, and Roethlisberger has become pretty steady, as evidence by his 17-5 TD / INT ration this season.

 

In my honest opinion, I could see this going either way. I know that is the easy way out and weak, but, I watch a lot of pro football, and one thing I've learned is that the NFL is hard to predict. I can envision a game where the Steelers shut down the running game and the defensive pressure gets to Sanchez early and often, causing him to make several mistakes. I can also envision a game where the Jets get just enough of a running game, and short passing success, with the occasional big play from Santonio & Braylon, wearing the Steelers defense out. I can envision Mendenhall being steady enough on the ground to help the O-Line, which could create play action opportunities for Ben's dangerous offensive weapons. I can also envision a situation where the Jets defense overwhelms the Steelers offensive line, clogging the running lanes and more importantly getting to Ben and causing mistakes. I also believe that the Jets have an advantage on special teams. Steeler coverage teams have been known to be very shaky, and Smith took one back against them to open up the last meeting. Which of these scenarios will take place, your guess is as good as mine. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show.

Edited by Menudo
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so the bolded is what you mean when you say, "its about who is the better running team when it matters. "

 

and not fishing...just want to clarify your exact meaning before I go and dig into some stats is all :wacko:

 

This is something that stats can't quantify. I could build an algorithm of sorts to justify my thoughts but I'm sure we would all disagree on the variables. It is just something I observe.

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1. There is this one guy on the Huddle that rips Sanchez apart more than anyone else............his name is Rovers. However, if someone else rips him, Rovers defends him. I'm not ripping you, it is like a family thing. You can rip him, but, when someone else does, it doesn't sit right. Trust me, I do the same thing. :wacko:

 

2. Yes, I would take the Steelers receivers over the Jets. The guy I noticed you failed to mention in your original analysis and here again is the rookie Emmanuel Sanders. I would actually consider him Ben's 2nd best WR target over the last several games. He has emerged as a very good and dangerous weapon. Trust me, this is not take away from Santonio or Braylon or Cotchery or Keller. I know how talented Santonio is, and he scares me in this game, as he has proven to be a CLUTCH player. I also know what Braylon is capable of as well. I think the Jets are talented, but, I'd take the Steelers group by a slight margin.

 

3. I would take the Jets group as a whole, but, I think Mendenhall is the most talented at this stage in their careers. However, the Jets have as good a 1-2 punch as anyone in the league. Both Tomlinson and Greene can get it done, which is a big advantage. Unfortunately, the Steelers have to work Mendenhall too much, as the drop-off to Moore & Redman is too large.

 

4. There is no doubt about this. The Jets have one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Steelers are average with their two starting tackles, without them, as they have been for almost the entire season, they are below average. I think the Jets offensive line is easily the biggest advantage they have over the Steelers. I think the Steelers biggest advantage is at QB, but, that isn't to say Sanchez can't get it done. Sanchez is very inconsistent though, and Roethlisberger has become pretty steady, as evidence by his 17-5 TD / INT ration this season.

 

In my honest opinion, I could see this going either way. I know that is the easy way out and weak, but, I watch a lot of pro football, and one thing I've learned is that the NFL is hard to predict. I can envision a game where the Steelers shut down the running game and the defensive pressure gets to Sanchez early and often, causing him to make several mistakes. I can also envision a game where the Jets get just enough of a running game, and short passing success, with the occasional big play from Santonio & Braylon, wearing the Steelers defense out. I can envision Mendenhall being steady enough on the ground to help the O-Line, which could create play action opportunities for Ben's dangerous offensive weapons. I can also envision a situation where the Jets defense overwhelms the Steelers offensive line, clogging the running lanes and more importantly getting to Ben and causing mistakes. I also believe that the Jets have an advantage on special teams. Steeler coverage teams have been known to be very shaky, and Smith took one back against them to open up the last meeting. Which of these scenarios will take place, your guess is as good as mine. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show.

 

Yes, I have a love-hate thing with Sanchez, but to say he insn't a viable NFL QB right now is beyond silliness. That comment I had to respond to. Even at that, my support fotr him is still somewhat luke warm. Iv'e seen him play great, I've seen him as inaccurate as can be, as in the Indy game. Which Sanchez shows up? I did not say the Jets WR corp was better, I see it as pretty even. However, I think the PIT D backfield (specifically the CB's) is more vulnerable than the Jets D backfield.

 

Mostly, I agree with your last paragraph. Who the heck knows how it's going to go? These teams matchup for the most part as strength vs strength. The big advantage PIT has is Rothlisberger. The big advantage the Jets have is the O line. Most of the rest of it is an even match.

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In other words, I can't possibly defend what I said, and besides, all of you would be too stupid to understand it.

 

Is thatt right polk?

 

no

 

"In other words, I can't possibly defend what I said as it is gut feelings and observations based on a few decades of football observations and besides, Rovers would be too stupid to understand it. "

 

fixed

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no

 

"In other words, I can't possibly defend what I said as it is gut feelings and observations based on a few decades of football observations and besides, Rovers would be too stupid to understand it. "

 

fixed

 

So your "gut feelings" tell you that the Steelers have a better rushing game and offensive line that the Jets. Yep, I'm too stupid to understand that. :wacko:

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Edwards and Holmes are far superior to Pitt's cornerbacks. The Pitt O-Line is hobbled. You talk about Sanchez needing to hurry b/c of pressure, what about Big Ben? Let's see how good he does when his O-Line fall apart. You think think the Pitt LB crew is better than the Jets LB crew? Nope. The Jet cornerbacks? Not a chance. I just do not see how Pitt can have an edge big enough to guarantee more than a 3 point victory, if that.

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Edwards and Holmes are far superior to Pitt's cornerbacks. The Pitt O-Line is hobbled. You talk about Sanchez needing to hurry b/c of pressure, what about Big Ben? Let's see how good he does when his O-Line fall apart. You think think the Pitt LB crew is better than the Jets LB crew? Nope. The Jet cornerbacks? Not a chance. I just do not see how Pitt can have an edge big enough to guarantee more than a 3 point victory, if that.

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Edwards and Holmes are far superior to Pitt's cornerbacks. The Pitt O-Line is hobbled. You talk about Sanchez needing to hurry b/c of pressure, what about Big Ben? Let's see how good he does when his O-Line fall apart. You think think the Pitt LB crew is better than the Jets LB crew? Nope. The Jet cornerbacks? Not a chance. I just do not see how Pitt can have an edge big enough to guarantee more than a 3 point victory, if that.

 

I've talked about Ben being hurried over and over again. I've commented on the Steelers offensive line being their weakness over and over again. As for the Steelers corners, Ike Taylor is a very good corner. However, Bryant McFadden & William Gay can both be burned if Sanchez gets enough time. As for the Steelers LB crew, every game they play, the commentators call them the best LB corps in the NFL, but, I'm sure you know more than them. I don't know if they are the best, but, their isn't a LB crew in the league clearly better than Harrison, Woodley, Timmons & Farrior. As for your last statement, I don't need a 3 point victory, a one point victory will do just fine !!!!!

 

I'm assuming you were directing this at me, as if I'm spouting about how the Steelers are going to win. I picked the Jets to win, but, as I've said, honestly, I have no idea how it will play out. I'm just going to enjoy my view from Heinz Field with 60,000+ of my friends.

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