Elway and qb's in the draft

[rustycolts]

Well since you asked

 

There are some pretty interesting rumors flying around involving Denver and a QB. One has them trading down and taking...drum roll please..Christian Ponder

 

Another has them selecting Special K in the 2nd. Of course these are all rumors and they are starting to get thick the closer we get to the draft. Most of this is just smoke screen but I'm just kinda perplexed as to why nobody else thinks Orton is a viable QB.

I just have to shake my head and smile at all these so called experts opinons .Have any of these QBs in this years draft proven that they can compete in the NFL?Newton and Special K how are they that much different than Tebow.It just amazes me at the Tebow hate out there.The Broncos have a lot more pressing needs than QB right now they would have to be insane to grab a QB in any of the early rounds.

[tazinib1]

I just have to shake my head and smile at all these so called experts opinons .Have any of these QBs in this years draft proven that they can compete in the NFL?Newton and Special K how are they that much different than Tebow.It just amazes me at the Tebow hate out there.The Broncos have a lot more pressing needs than QB right now they would have to be insane to grab a QB in any of the early rounds.

 

Give it another week

 

The disinformation that will start growing like weeds at Chernobyl will be amazing to witness.

[tazinib1]

Anyone who thinks Tebow has no game is a racist.

 

 

Pretty funny right there Opie.

[Bronco Billy]

Give it another week

 

The disinformation that will start growing like weeds at Chernobyl will be amazing to witness.

 

It seems fairly obvious that Elway is doing this to run up Orton's and/or the 1st/2nd round pick's value.

 

Tebow sucks = Orton value as starter = pick a QB with 1st/2nd rounder as successor to Orton and taking QB off the board.

 

The other thing you do by putting this kind of information out there is drive Tebow's value down.

 

So, as a GM less than a month before the draft what does all the above mean? It means they have no intention of trading away Tebow and that they are looking for adding picks in next year's draft for Orton (because of no contract/can't move players for picks this year) and this year's draft by trading down what I'm guessing is their 2nd rounder (also obvious that DEN isn't going QB at 1.02). That would also indicate that Tebow is their guy.

 

Also - don't underestimate that Elway was not only able to watch Shanahan manipulate with disinformation but also was likely a contributing participant in Shanahan draft warrooms.

Edited April 5, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[tazinib1]

It seems fairly obvious that Elway is doing this to run up Orton's and/or the 1st/2nd round pick's value.

 

Tebow sucks = Orton value as starter = pick a QB with 1st/2nd rounder as successor to Orton and taking QB off the board.

 

The other thing you do by putting this kind of information out there is drive Tebow's value down.

 

So, as a GM less than a month before the draft what does all the above mean? It means they have no intention of trading away Tebow and that they are looking for adding picks in next year's draft for Orton (because of no contract/can't move players for picks this year) and this year's draft by trading down what I'm guessing is their 2nd rounder (also obvious that DEN isn't going QB at 1.02). That would also indicate that Tebow is their guy.

 

Also - don't underestimate that Elway was not only able to watch Shanahan manipulate with disinformation but also was likely a contributing participant in Shanahan draft warrooms.

 

 

Agreed 100%

[Seahawks21]

First, let's get one thing straight. It matters zero how good any other position on the team is without an elite QB. If you don't have one, it is the most pressing and only need that you have. You are better served to take 7 QB's in the draft. Anything else you take doesn't matter in the least bit without a top QB. Denver will never be good, period, until they get an elite QB. They can have top-5 picks for the next 7 years, take 7 studs with those picks, and still never smell the playoffs. It is all up to the QB. So don't tell me they shouldn't take a QB because they have Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow. They essentially have a 0% chance of winning a championship. 0%. Not 1%. 0%.

 

If there isn't a QB available, fine, then there isn't a QB available, and you have to go elsewhere, and that is certainly a viable excuse in this year's draft, but the fact that they are better at QB than the rest of their positions matters zero to long-term success. You are either elite at QB or you need a QB. There is nothing in between if championships are the goal.

[tazinib1]

First, let's get one thing straight. It matters zero how good any other position on the team is without an elite QB. If you don't have one, it is the most pressing and only need that you have. You are better served to take 7 QB's in the draft. Anything else you take doesn't matter in the least bit without a top QB. Denver will never be good, period, until they get an elite QB. They can have top-5 picks for the next 7 years, take 7 studs with those picks, and still never smell the playoffs. It is all up to the QB. So don't tell me they shouldn't take a QB because they have Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow. They essentially have a 0% chance of winning a championship. 0%. Not 1%. 0%.

 

If there isn't a QB available, fine, then there isn't a QB available, and you have to go elsewhere, and that is certainly a viable excuse in this year's draft, but the fact that they are better at QB than the rest of their positions matters zero to long-term success. You are either elite at QB or you need a QB. There is nothing in between if championships are the goal.

 

 

Sorry Seahawks but you are WAY off here.

 

Jeff Hostetler

Mark Rypien

Trent Dilfer

 

Those 3 come to mind right off the bat. None of those were "elite" QB's. And as much as some would like to argue, Eli Manning is far from elite.

[Bronco Billy]

Sorry Seahawks but you are WAY off here.

 

Jeff Hostetler

Mark Rypien

Trent Dilfer

 

Those 3 come to mind right off the bat. None of those were "elite" QB's. And as much as some would like to argue, Eli Manning is far from elite.

 

Brad Johnson

Doug Williams

Jim McMahon

 

That's 21% of QBs who have won a SB who you can't count as "elite".

Edited April 6, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Azazello1313]

Brad Johnson

Doug Williams

Jim McMahon

 

Troy Aikman

Roger Staubach

Danny White

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Would you consider Eli Manning *elite*?

 

Make that 25% of QBs who have won a SB being non-elite.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

Brad Johnson

Doug Williams

Jim McMahon

 

That's 21% of QBs who have won a SB who you can't count as "elite".

 

Don't forget Elway himself.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the ring TD!

[KOKIDKOKID]

Troy Aikman

Roger Staubach

Danny White

 

 

Danny White never won a super bowl as the starting QB...starting punter - Yes...so maybe we need a new list?

 

Ray Guy

Danny White

Sean Landetta

 

 

KO'd

[Bronco Billy]

First, let's get one thing straight. It matters zero how good any other position on the team is without an elite QB. If you don't have one, it is the most pressing and only need that you have. You are better served to take 7 QB's in the draft. Anything else you take doesn't matter in the least bit without a top QB. Denver will never be good, period, until they get an elite QB. They can have top-5 picks for the next 7 years, take 7 studs with those picks, and still never smell the playoffs. It is all up to the QB. So don't tell me they shouldn't take a QB because they have Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow. They essentially have a 0% chance of winning a championship. 0%. Not 1%. 0%.

 

If there isn't a QB available, fine, then there isn't a QB available, and you have to go elsewhere, and that is certainly a viable excuse in this year's draft, but the fact that they are better at QB than the rest of their positions matters zero to long-term success. You are either elite at QB or you need a QB. There is nothing in between if championships are the goal.

 

List of top 100 QBs (by career passing yds who played at least 5 years in the SB era and never won a SB):

 

2 Dan Marino+ 61,361

5 Warren Moon+ 49,325

6 Fran Tarkenton+ 47,003

7 Vinny Testaverde 46,233

9 Dan Fouts+ 43,040

11 Kerry Collins (38) 40,441

13 Dave Krieg 38,147

14 Boomer Esiason 37,920

15 Donovan McNabb (34) 36,250

16 Jim Kelly+ 35,467

18 Jim Everett 34,837

20 Jim Hart 34,665

21 Steve DeBerg 34,241

22 John Hadl 33,503

26 Ken Anderson 32,838

28 Sonny Jurgensen+ 32,224

29 Mark Brunell (40) 32,045

30 John Brodie 31,548

31 Steve McNair 31,304

32 Norm Snead 30,797

33 Randall Cunningham 29,979

34 Joe Ferguson 29,817

35 Jon Kitna (38) 29,658

36 Matt Hasselbeck (35) 29,579

37 Roman Gabriel 29,444

38 Jake Plummer 29,253

40 Rich Gannon 28,743

42 Chris Chandler 28,484

44 Ron Jaworski 28,190

47 Craig Morton 27,908

49 Jeff George 27,602

50 George Blanda+ 26,920

51 Steve Grogan 26,886

52 Jim Harbaugh 26,288

54 Jeff Garcia 25,537

56 Ken O'Brien 25,094

58 Tommy Kramer 24,777

60 Charley Johnson 24,410

61 Daunte Culpepper 24,153

62 Steve Bartkowski 24,124

63 Steve Beuerlein 24,046

64 Archie Manning 23,911

65 Brian Sipe 23,713

66 Lynn Dickey 23,322

67 Bernie Kosar 23,301

68 Marc Bulger 22,814

69 Neil Lomax 22,771

71 Carson Palmer (31) 22,694

74 Danny White 21,959

75 Jeff Blake 21,711

76 Neil O'Donnell 21,690

77 Bobby Hebert 21,683

78 Gus Frerotte 21,291

79 Jack Kemp 21,218

80 Jim Zorn 21,115

81 Earl Morrall 20,809

82 Jake Delhomme (35) 20,764

83 Richard Todd 20,610

84 Trent Dilfer 20,518

85 Billy Kilmer 20,495

86 Aaron Brooks 20,261

87 Jay Schroeder 20,063

88 Philip Rivers (29) 19,661

89 Brian Griese 19,440

90 Chris Miller 19,320

91 Daryle Lamonica 19,154

92 Dan Pastorini 18,515

94 Bert Jones 18,190

96 Chad Pennington (34) 17,823

97 Wade Wilson 17,283

98 Bill Kenney 17,277

99 Stan Humphries 17,191

 

That's 72% of the "eilite" QBs who never won a SB.

 

If you choose to use career QB rating as your "elite" criteria, here is the list of the top 100 career rated QBs who played at least 5 years in the SB era who never won to the SB:

 

2 Philip Rivers (29) 97.2

4 Tony Romo (30) 95.5

11 Matt Schaub (29) 91.5

12 Chad Pennington (34) 90.1

13 Joe Flacco (25) 87.9

14 Daunte Culpepper 87.8

15 Jeff Garcia 87.5

16 Carson Palmer (31) 86.9

18 Matt Ryan (25) 86.9

19 Dan Marino+ 86.4

21 Trent Green 86.0

22 David Garrard (32) 85.8

23 Donovan McNabb (34) 85.7

24 Rich Gannon 84.7

25 Shaun Hill (30) 84.6

26 Marc Bulger 84.4

27 Jim Kelly+ 84.4

28 Jay Cutler (27) 84.3

29 Mark Brunell (40) 84.0

30 Matt Cassel (28) 83.6

32 Steve McNair 82.8

33 Brian Griese 82.7

33 Neil Lomax 82.7

35 Jason Campbell (29) 82.6

35 Sonny Jurgensen+ 82.6

39 Matt Hasselbeck (35) 82.2

40 Ken Anderson 81.9

41 Bernie Kosar 81.8

41 Neil O'Donnell 81.8

43 Danny White 81.7

45 Dave Krieg 81.5

45 Randall Cunningham 81.5

47 Jake Delhomme (35) 81.2

48 Boomer Esiason 81.1

49 Warren Moon+ 80.9

50 Damon Huard 80.6

53 Fran Tarkenton+ 80.4

53 Jeff George 80.4

53 Ken O'Brien 80.4

56 Steve Beuerlein 80.3

57 Dan Fouts+ 80.2

57 Michael Vick (30) 80.2

61 Byron Leftwich (30) 79.7

61 Tony Eason 79.7

63 Elvis Grbac 79.6

63 Kyle Orton (28) 79.6

65 Chris Chandler 79.1

67 Jim Everett 78.6

68 Aaron Brooks 78.5

70 Bert Jones 78.2

73 Bobby Hebert 78.0

73 Jeff Blake 78.0

75 Charlie Batch (36) 77.9

76 Jim Harbaugh 77.6

78 Jon Kitna (38) 77.5

80 Bob Berry 77.2

81 Drew Bledsoe 77.1

81 Jay Fiedler 77.1

84 Bill Kenney 77.0

85 Erik Kramer 76.6

85 Gary Danielson 76.6

87 Doug Flutie 76.3

88 Stan Humphries 75.8

89 Vince Young (27) 75.7

90 J.P. Losman 75.6

90 Wade Wilson 75.6

92 Steve Bartkowski 75.4

92 Trent Edwards (27) 75.4

94 Chad Henne (25) 75.3

94 Scott Mitchell 75.3

94 Steve Bono 75.3

95 Jim Miller 75.2

96 Tim Couch 75.1

97 Vinny Testaverde 75.0

99 David Carr (31) 74.9

100 Chris Miller 74.9

100 Patrick Ramsey 74.9

 

That drops the odds of an "elite" QB not winning a SB at 77%

 

So making a team's priority to be drafting an "eilte" QB in order to win a SB appears to be a fallacy.

Edited April 6, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Azazello1313]

List of top 100 QBs (by career passing yds who played at least 5 years in the SB era and never won a SB):

 

...17 Drew Brees (31) 35,266

 

[Bronco Billy]

 

Thought I weeded that enough. Thanks, and changed

[KOKIDKOKID]

Thought I weeded that enough. Thanks, and changed

Also need to remove Trent Dilfer #84 from this list.

 

KO'd

[rustycolts]

Here are a few more Super Bowl winners that were not elite.

1 Bob Greise( my all time favorite but definatly not elite)

2 Jim Plunkett

3 Joe Theismann

4 Phil Simms

5 Jeff Hostetler

6 Mark Rypien

All good QBs but not elite.So I guess that elite theory is kind of bogus

[rustycolts]

Sorry Taz you already named two of those guys.But I think everyone gets the point you can win championships and at least smell the playoffs without an elite QB.

[Seahawks21]

I'd argue that quite a few of those guys should be considered elite. You guys were right though. I should have phrased it completely differently. I suppose you mathematically can win a championship. I should have said that you can't be a perennial contender, which is really what I hope for when my team is building a run.

 

Look at the teams that have made the playoffs over the last couple of years. Take the top 12 QB's in terms of rating. 10-11 of those guys make the playoffs, along with whoever represents the NFC West. Look how many times the elite QB's make the playoffs in their career. Then look at the guys that aren't elite, and look at their playoff records. If they're fortunate enough to make the playoffs, they are quickly ousted by the elite QB's.

 

The Dilfer debate doesn't hold water. If you're going to tell me that Denver is going to have arguably the greatest defense in the history of pro football, sure, they can win a Super Bowl. Also, QB's from 20-30 years ago aren't relevant to today's game. The rules done changed.

 

If you have an elite QB, you're going to make the playoffs almost every single year. If you don't, you're barely ever going to make the playoffs. I should have worded my original argument this way. I stand corrected.

[NAUgrad]

I'd argue that quite a few of those guys should be considered elite. You guys were right though. I should have phrased it completely differently. I suppose you mathematically can win a championship. I should have said that you can't be a perennial contender, which is really what I hope for when my team is building a run.

 

Look at the teams that have made the playoffs over the last couple of years. Take the top 12 QB's in terms of rating. 10-11 of those guys make the playoffs, along with whoever represents the NFC West. Look how many times the elite QB's make the playoffs in their career. Then look at the guys that aren't elite, and look at their playoff records. If they're fortunate enough to make the playoffs, they are quickly ousted by the elite QB's.

 

The Dilfer debate doesn't hold water. If you're going to tell me that Denver is going to have arguably the greatest defense in the history of pro football, sure, they can win a Super Bowl. Also, QB's from 20-30 years ago aren't relevant to today's game. The rules done changed.

 

If you have an elite QB, you're going to make the playoffs almost every single year. If you don't, you're barely ever going to make the playoffs. I should have worded my original argument this way. I stand corrected.

Again, your saying Tebow and Orton are not very good, based on what? Let's focus on Tebow for a moment. He may actually be a very good QB when it's all said and done. What are you basing your opinion on that he's no good and never will be? Some sort of mailer?

[NAUgrad]

I think he's saying that if there was a Bradford or Luck in this draft, that we'd take them and dump Tebow. I tend to agree. We know that Orton is a good QB, but he ain't elite.

 

I'd rather have Cutler than Tebow or Orton.

I don't think he's saying that at all. I think he's clearly saying that Orton and Tebow stink and will never be good and we need to pick up a top end QB out of this draft. I don't know if Tebow is elite or not, but I can tell you I'm starting to like the kid after watching him play at the end of last year. And completely disagree with him that Denver needs to pick up a QB in this draft.

[detlef]

I don't think he's saying that at all. I think he's clearly saying that Orton and Tebow stink and will never be good and we need to pick up a top end QB out of this draft. I don't know if Tebow is elite or not, but I can tell you I'm starting to like the kid after watching him play at the end of last year. And completely disagree with him that Denver needs to pick up a QB in this draft.

Actually, I believe he specifically stated that there wasn't a QB worth taking in the first round of this draft to supplant either. He merely distanced himself from those who would take that to be an endorsement of either Tebow or Orton but rather as an indictment of the QB draft class.

 

In other words, some were saying that Tebow could be the man and that's why Den should skip the QB position. He was simply saying that, even though Tebow will not be the man, they should skip QB in the draft because he doesn't think there's anyone out there any better.

[NAUgrad]

Actually, I believe he specifically stated that there wasn't a QB worth taking in the first round of this draft to supplant either. He merely distanced himself from those who would take that to be an endorsement of either Tebow or Orton but rather as an indictment of the QB draft class.

 

In other words, some were saying that Tebow could be the man and that's why Den should skip the QB position. He was simply saying that, even though Tebow will not be the man, they should skip QB in the draft because he doesn't think there's anyone out there any better.

Exactly what i was saying.........okay maybe not. I guess I got hung up on the implication that Denver has no QB now, nor do they have a QB that could be elite.

[BearBroncos]

Me prsonally, I think Elway has merely only been posturing himself to move down in the draft. Threatening to take a QB with that 1.02 gets those teams desperate, thinking Denver will be taking "their guy". Move down 2 or 3 spots and add a second, a win, win for Denver.

 

I think his confidence in Tebow isn't solid, but I've never seen Elway react to a player being drafted as he did with Tebow. Even when Shanahan masterfully move in to get Cutler, nothing. Elway was pretty silent. He was estatic when Tebow was drafted... Granted, that could have all changed with his new position and in which in some cases, I would suspect but that being said, I'm not thinking Elway is willing to give up on Tebow as of yet.

[detlef]

Exactly what i was saying.........okay maybe not. I guess I got hung up on the implication that Denver has no QB now, nor do they have a QB that could be elite.

FWIW, I actually agree with you (despite my reservations about Tebow) that it's too early to assume he could never be a great or even good NFL starter. I'd just prefer that people be accurately quoted.