i_am_the_swammi Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Dude was dead-on back in March with his prediction for the summer for the stock market....is he right with his predictions beyond? if so, this will be a very ugly next several years: Dent's Predictions from March 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Dude was dead-on I wouldn't say "dead on": he sees clear and present danger in gold, silver, oil and other commodities. "All investors should lighten up on or sell oil, silver, and gold And the DOW hasn't quite hit 3500 just yet, as he predicted. . .or was that Brent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 I wouldn't say "dead on": He was close...predicted 13,200 as our summer top, and we came close at 12,724....not bad. And the DOW hasn't quite hit 3500 just yet, as he predicted. . .or was that Brent? He didn't predict we'd be at a worse-case 3,300 bottom for some time...thats part of our drop over the next couple years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Is this the same guy who predicted Dow 29,000 (or some such) sometime in the late 1990s or early 2000s? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramhock Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 We may get to 3300, today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 (edited) Anyone who's been REALLY paying attention to what's going on globally over the last few years, would have seen some sort of catastrophe coming. Even if you started paying attention after the housing bubble (post-2008) - just seeing the Fed policies and all the stimulus etc... that was a recipe for disaster. The problems were never fixed, only band-aids and anytime you cover up a massive problem with a band-aid instead of getting to the root of the problem, the problem manifests into something bigger. Not to mention the European debt crisis. This is a global issue since the entire modern civilized financial world is controlled and manipulated by central banks. The stocks WILL get below the Mar 09 lows over the next several years - this I know. Good luck, huddlers. I hope you all have a cash-heavy position. The spit is going to hit the fan. Edited August 4, 2011 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Just read that article, never heard of the guy but he too suggests that the dollar is close to bottoming and is a good long investment. He also says to avoid all stocks and commodities. Hmmmm, sounds familiar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Just read that article, never heard of the guy but he too suggests that the dollar is close to bottoming and is a good long investment. He also says to avoid all stocks and commodities. Hmmmm, sounds familiar. With all do respect, I could find at least one other person who would agree that Yak futures are the way to make a killing in the Indo/Asian market, but, hey, I'm not honking my horn about that. I'm just taking a fun shot at you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Is this the same guy who predicted Dow 29,000 (or some such) sometime in the late 1990s or early 2000s? The Roaring 2000's Also... In 1999, the AIM Dent Demographics Trends Fund was launched, based on the demographic economic and lifestyle trends identified by Dent. Unfortunately, the fund’s results were miserable. From 2000 through 2004, the fund lost more than 11 percent per year and underperformed the S&P 500 Index by almost 9 percent per year. In 2005, its sponsor put investors out of their misery by merging it into the AIM Weingarten Fund. Read more: http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/.../#ixzz1U4za7lLp I can't believe anyone would actually listen to this guy. That's not to say there aren't some real issues right now but he is the last person I would be getting information or following predictions from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The Roaring 2000's Also... I can't believe anyone would actually listen to this guy. That's not to say there aren't some real issues right now but he is the last person I would be getting information or following predictions from. I'm not trying to defend the guy because I don't even know who he is but in fairness, the stock market peaked on 1/1/2000 and declined for the next 4 years after being on an historic bull run. I'm sure most 'experts' got that wrong and were blind-sided by it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 it won't be long now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duchess Jack Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The Roaring That's not to say there aren't some real issues right now but he is the last person I would be getting information or following predictions from. including folk in this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 including folk in this thread? I don't think anyone in this thread ever predicted the market doubling from 2009 levels and then switched to doomsday when it suited them so yes, I would even listen to people in this thread ahead of Dent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Good luck, huddlers. I hope you all have a cash-heavy position. The spit is going to hit the fan. From a blog I read: In early May, Wells Fargo’s chief economist, Johan Silva, told me interest rates were definitely going to rise this year. He said it’s just a matter of how much. He stated that his estimate was that the 5-year Treasury rate was going to increase by 0.30 to 0.50 percent. Since making that confident forecast on May 5th, the 5-year Treasury actually declined by 0.71 percent, dropping from 1.95 percent to 1.24 percent. How low can they go? I have the answer as well as what you should do with your cash in the mean time. 5 year Treasury Since 1962, the 5-year Treasury rate has ranged from a high of 16.27 percent during the inflationary days in September of 1981, to an all time low of 1.04 percent in November of 2010. Thus we have yet to hit an all-time low. In 2006, rates were over five percent. Many economists predicted rates would rise, as the inverted yield curve couldn’t last. They were dead wrong. Rates have steadily fallen to the modern day low levels of the past year. King cash When markets tanked in 2008 and 2009, investors ran to cash, though sprinted was more like it. Investors feared that rising rates would cause a bond bubble, so many avoided bonds. Both stocks and bonds rallied, though King Cash retained its throne as many were still too scared of bubbles. How low? How low can the 5-year Treasury rate go? The answer, to state the obvious, is that it can only lower by 1.24 percent since that would bring it to a big fat zero yield. I’m not saying it will go that low, but I’m betting that rates won’t turn negative on a nominal basis. Those who might disagree with my premise should ask themselves if they would lend $100 for the promise of being paid back $99 in a year. That’s one of those propositions unlikely to have any takers. I ran my theory by advisor and author William Bernstein who pointed out they could go slightly negative, since Treasuries have a bit of a storage and security premium that makes them preferable to stuffing the cash inside your mattress. What to do now Allow me to reiterate that I’m not claiming to know what will happen to intermediate to long-term rates. There is certainly more downside to rising rates than there is upside, given this zero absolute bottom. So cash is guaranteed to lose and bonds are very risky. The answer is simple. You can earn intermediate-term rates without the risk by buying CDs that have easy early withdrawal penalties. My favorite two are: Allly Bank 5-Year CD paying 2.32% APY with a 60 day early withdrawal penalty. Security Service Federal Credit Union 7-Year CD paying as much as 3.50% APY with a 1-year early withdrawal penalty. Each pays nearly 2-3 times the 5-year Treasury rate. If rates do shoot up, pay the early withdrawal penalty and put your money into something paying more. Read more: http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/...n-they-go/3904/ One says go cash heavy, the other says that cash is guaranteed to lose. However, do you consider CDs part of your cash allocation or look at them as something different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 CDs are one of many "cash equivalent" investments (along with money market funds). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 From a blog I read: One says go cash heavy, the other says that cash is guaranteed to lose. However, do you consider CDs part of your cash allocation or look at them as something different? No, I look at CDs as an IOU, not cash. Anything except for actual physical cash is a risk, imo. Robert Prechter once opined on a similar matter: "I have run into many people who think their money is safe because it is in bank CDs, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, short funds, etc. But most of these investments depend upon the solvency of some creditor institution that will probably not survive." My point has always been to maximize safety. I'm not saying cash will be the most profitable investment, it is simply the safest. Because, again, the global problem is too much debt, which is why it's dubbed the debt crisis. Once the avalanche of defaults begins people will scurry to cash, primarily the US dollar because most of the global debt is backed by the dollar. Of course there will be some bank CD that will be fine but do you have the confidence to identify now which banks those will be? I have my money with Northern Trust because I believe them to be one of the safest banks in America but there is no guarantee. If governments are defaulting, don't you think most banks will too? I've always preached safety, not profit, during these vicious, volatile and uncertain times and my stance hasn't changed one bit, even if the stock market has been stubborn (i.e. propped up by QE) up until now. When it's too late, it's too late and everyone with 401ks and money market funds etc... will lose it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 CDs are one of many "cash equivalent" investments (along with money market funds). True, but still not as good as cash. Better than stocks and commodities, however. I posted this sometime recently: Half the assets in U.S. prime money market funds were invested in European banks as of the end ofMay….The Treasury is even saying privately that the U.S. needs to support the European bailout of Greece lest European banks fail, U.S. funds take big losses, and we get another flight from money funds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Evidently Mr. Prechter didn't count on TARP and "Too Big To Fail" happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 True, but still not as good as cash. Better than stocks and commodities, however. I posted this sometime recently: I don't know any CD's that would yield the type of return that Gold has had over the last 10 years....in the last 2 years I've more than tripled my money in commodities and I was thinking of cashing out soon and then today gold/silver got hammered out of my selling range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If you think paper money in your mattress will hold value, then the FDIC will be solvent and, since it's solvent, it will be honoring the "up to $250,000 per account" insurance that all FDIC-insured institutions provide. I'll stand that a CD is a "cash equivalent" that is far less likely to go up in flames should your domicile catch on fire than the bag of $5s in the duffle bag in your closet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If you think paper money in your mattress will hold value, then the FDIC will be solvent and, since it's solvent, it will be honoring the "up to $250,000 per account" insurance that all FDIC-insured institutions provide. I'll stand that a CD is a "cash equivalent" that is far less likely to go up in flames should your domicile catch on fire than the bag of $5s in the duffle bag in your closet. Are hundreds less flamable than fives? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 that's why I have my life savings in coffee cans full of pennies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 that's why I have my life savings in coffee cans full of pennies. Smart. A coffee can never losses its value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 one of the many reasons not to be a fan of CD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 (edited) If you think paper money in your mattress will hold value, then the FDIC will be solvent and, since it's solvent, it will be honoring the "up to $250,000 per account" insurance that all FDIC-insured institutions provide. I'll stand that a CD is a "cash equivalent" that is far less likely to go up in flames should your domicile catch on fire than the bag of $5s in the duffle bag in your closet. So are you saying the FDIC must remain solvent in order for USD to retain value? Why would they have any effect on the dollar? Also, cash under the mattress isn't very realistic but cash in a fireproof safe sure makes sense. It's just personal preference but I have a hard time trusting any entity in this uncertain environment. E2A: I'm not arguing that CDs aren't cash equivalents, I'm just saying if you're going for optimal safety, CDs are less safe than actual cash. Both options are much better than the stock market. Edited August 4, 2011 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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