The effect of a viable WR2 on stud WRs

[darin3]

Of course common sense tells you it is true, but then that isn't one of the strengths of the author of the OP. When he proceeded to explain why common sense made no sense to him, the discussion became more technical.

Water is not wet. Go.

[bpwallace49]

Seems to me that there are too many variables to make any definitive statements on this subject. Too many "yeah,BUT" s on each side, and not enough compelling evidence.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'm not sure why the conversation is so technical, common sense tells you that if you have more than one receiving threat, the defense is at a much bigger disadvantage because they do not have free reign of pinning one safety to the stud pass catcher.

 

That part we all agree on.

 

Where there is a disconnect is the fact that it doesn't necessarily translate into better FF production from the WR1. In fact, the stats prove it doesn't.

[Bronco Billy]

That part we all agree on.

 

Where there is a disconnect is the fact that it doesn't necessarily translate into better FF production from the WR1. In fact, the stats prove it doesn't.

 

I'll concede that (you read that, correct?), but that was not part of the original argument, nor have I made any statements denying this. But your stats also do not prove that WR1s never benefit from the addition of better WR2s.

Edited August 15, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[detlef]

I'm not sure why the conversation is so technical, common sense tells you that if you have more than one receiving threat, the defense is at a much bigger disadvantage because they do not have free reign of pinning one safety to the stud pass catcher. Even if Jones isn't the threat Evans will be in Baltimore, he will at least serve the role Steve Smith did in NY. So when Roddy White is running his routes, he definitely won't feel as much pressure from the defense which will in turn free him up to be a better fantasy receiver.

No, common sense tells you that a good WR2 should be able to take advantage of the attention a stud WR1 is going to get. Common sense does not say that the D is going to put their CB1 out on an island with Roddy White and have the safety help the CB2 with Jones. Common sense says that the D is going to make damned sure they take away the offense's best weapon and make you beat them with someone less. And, if the WR2 is good enough, then they're going play a secondary package where there's enough DBs to see to it that both are taken care of, which could open things up for the RB. Unless that dude is also a stud, in which case the D is screwed. So, from a team standpoint, I completely get why they would want to bring in a better WR2, because it's just one more guy the D has to worry about.

 

None the less, the theory that BB proposes relies on the D caring a whole lot about the WR2 but apparently not the QB, because he's prepared to discount the cost of making that WR2 relevant by giving him looks at the expense of the WR1. Thus, the cost of "opening things up" for the WR2.

 

So, there's "common sense" on both sides of the argument, but not a lot of statistical evidence to back up the theory that a better WR2 is a statistical boon to the WR1. Guys are digging through stats having to pretend that examples that don't actually illustrate this somehow do.

 

Like...

 

not on a per game basis, if you consider he lost a game to suspension in 2008. on a per game basis, 2008 (the year royal had 91 catches) was better than 2007. 2009 was better still per game, and that year royal was no longer a clear #2 (mcdaniels had no idea how to use him) but he was still there, but with gaffney and scheffler and others, there were far better secondary receiving options in 2009 than in 2007 when marshall was the only legitimate threat.

Somehow thinking that a .5 point per game increase in FF scoring is not essentially a statical wash. Because that was the boon that Marshall saw when they added Eddie Royal in 2008. Assuming, of course, that you also want to ignore the fact that Marshall had one more year under his belt in 2008 at a point in his career when that's actually a good thing.

Edited August 15, 2011 by detlef

[Bronco Billy]

Common sense does not say that the D is going to put their CB1 out on an island with Roddy White and have the safety help the CB2 with Jones.

 

Who made this statement?

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'll concede that (you read that, correct?), but that was not part of the original argument, nor have I made any statements denying this. But your stats also do not prove that WR1s never benefit from the addition of better WR2s.

 

yeah, I read that.

 

And I agree, I wouldn't say they never benefit...they sometimes do. And I will also concede that some WRs that were looked at as low-end WR1s prolly got a lot better when a solid WR2 was added. They don't come to mind, since all we've really looked at are top-end WR1s...but I am sure there were some schmo WR1s that were made to look a lot better when a decent complement was added. In fact, I would wager a guess that Tier 2 & 3 WR1s benefit more from a capable WR2 than Tier 1 WR1s. The top guys? They are already studs for a reason...they are good.

[detlef]

Who made this statement?

 

You did. Basically by saying that the CB1 no longer has the luxury of knowing he's got deep help from the FS because that dude is busy helping the CB with the WR2.

 

 

Pretty simplistic if you've coordinated a D before. A legit threat at the 2nd WR position (or the TE, for that matter) forces a float by the FS so that the CB2 doesn't get beaten deep by the WR2. That float is hugh to the WR1 - it gives him more room to operate underneath as the CB1 has to change his coverage without the deep help.

 

Why do you think the top cover corners draw so much attention and high pay in FA? It allows the D to play completely differently at the 2nd and 3rd levels.

Which, like I said earlier assumes the CB2 is significantly worse than the CB1. So much worse that you're giving him help covering a lesser threat than you're now expecting the CB1 to handle without the luxury of help over the top from the FS.

 

Now, again, I'm not arguing that this "opens things up" in general. Of course it does. If you've got a 2nd WR that is good enough to require being treated by the D in much the same way they have to treat the WR1, it's got to come from somewhere. Though it seems rather foolish to slack off on the bigger threat of the two in order to shut down the lesser evil.

 

However, the guy to have in these cases is often the WR2, because that's the guy who is truly feasting on the situation. Like the Mike Furrey example, he's putting up numbers by virtue of the fact that the Ds were doing their best to minimize the damage that Roy Williams was going to do to them.

 

Again, the data shows that the WR1's numbers are largely unaffected by the presence of a legit WR2. If he's getting any benefit at all from the fact that the FS has to worry about the guy on the other side, it comes at the expense of the amount of looks he's getting. So, it's not a boon for him specifically.

[Bronco Billy]

You did. Basically by saying that the CB1 no longer has the luxury of knowing he's got deep help from the FS because that dude is busy helping the CB with the WR2.

 

No, that is not what my statements said.

 

Pretty obvious that you just don't understand this stuff, which is why I stopped responding to you earlier, until you made other preposterous statements and strawman arguments.

 

And now I'll stop arguing with you again, since it is still pointless, and since you still insist on attributing false assertions to others to support your unsupportable view.

Edited August 15, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[detlef]

Seems to me that there are too many variables to make any definitive statements on this subject. Too many "yeah,BUT" s on each side, and not enough compelling evidence.

But "the side" I'm trying to argue on behalf is actually the middle. I'm not saying it's a bad thing. I'm just saying that it's not a good thing. And the data does seem to show that. Because the only instance we've been able to show that isn't clouded by a ton of circumstance (that is readily obvious) is Eric Moulds in 2003. And, on the other hand, you've got Reggie Wayne who blew up in 2007 when Harrison got hurt and Dallas Clark was not at the level he is now.

 

I don't think White's numbers will decrease with the addition of Jones. I just don't see them getting any better.

[detlef]

No, that is not what my statements said.

 

Pretty obvious that you just don't understand this stuff, which is why I stopped responding to you earlier, until you made other preposterous statements and strawmean arguments.

 

And now I'll stop arguing with you again, since it is still pointless, and since you still insist on attributing false assertions to others to support your unsupportable view.

You said, and I quote, "The CB1 has to change his coverage because he no longer has deep help" OK, so what help does he have? Short help? Apparently not because you said that, lacking deep help, the CB has to play off the WR, thus opening up the underneath. So, he doesn't have deep help and he doesn't have help underneath. Yet he's not going it alone?

 

But, regardless, I'll continue to rely on the overwhelming data that shows stud WR1's stats basically never increase due to the addition of a stronger WR2 to back up my theory that, well, a stud WR1's stats don't seem likely to increase with the addition of a stronger WR2.

 

Call that a strawman if you want, I call it a mountain of evidence vs basically nothing.

Edited August 15, 2011 by detlef

[Seahawks21]

The way people play against Atlanta this year is going to change very minimally until Jones proves he can absolutely torch people on the backside. This gets into the pair of elite WR rules if he eventually does. Teams are going to roll coverage towards Roddy White at almost the exact same rate as they did before. The WR2 benefits and the offense should benefit as a whole, but the #1 WR doesn't benefit much at all until Jones becomes elite as well and is schemed against as such.

[keggerz]

You said, and I quote, "The CB1 has to change his coverage because he no longer has deep help" OK, so what help does he have? Short help? Apparently not because you said that, lacking deep help, the CB has to play off the WR, thus opening up the underneath. So, he doesn't have deep help and he doesn't have help underneath. Yet he's not going it alone?

 

But, regardless, I'll continue to rely on the overwhelming data that shows stud WR1's stats basically never increase due to the addition of a stronger WR2 to back up my theory that, well, a stud WR1's stats don't seem likely to increase with the addition of a stronger WR2.

 

Call that a strawman if you want, I call it a mountain of evidence vs basically nothing.

I believe that what he meant was that the safety can no longer just cheat to the WR1's side, now he has to play more honest (for lack of a better way to describe it)...the safety will need to respect the WR2 so he will need to assess how the play is developing and that is why the CB1 won't always have deep help....

 

also I should say that I basically read the title of the thread and not much more when I agreed to BBs post....basically I was looking at it from an NFL perspective and in that sense I do think that a viable WR2 is going to make things EASIER on the WR1....then when I realized you guys were talking fantasy production I figured I would do some quick digging on guys that came to mind....and I do agree that a stud is a stud and will most likely get theirs no matter what...and with that said I expect that a non-probowl type WR1 that is a true 1 would garner much more from a viable #2...unfortunately I don't have the time to dig into this anymore because I have to finish my IDP Preseason Breakdowns on 7 more divisions....WW should have the NFC East posted in the next day or so.

 

 

EDIT: I also think you guys need to have realistic expectations that a WR is going to be hard pressed to repeat a career type year...IE: I think Roddy White would have a hard time repeating what he did last year, with or without a Julio Jones.

Edited August 15, 2011 by keggerz

[Bronco Billy]

You said, and I quote, "The CB1 has to change his coverage because he no longer has deep help" OK, so what help does he have? Short help? Apparently not because you said that, lacking deep help, the CB has to play off the WR, thus opening up the underneath. So, he doesn't have deep help and he doesn't have help underneath. Yet he's not going it alone?

 

But, regardless, I'll continue to rely on the overwhelming data that shows stud WR1's stats basically never increase due to the addition of a stronger WR2 to back up my theory that, well, a stud WR1's stats don't seem likely to increase with the addition of a stronger WR2.

 

Call that a strawman if you want, I call it a mountain of evidence vs basically nothing.

 

If you reread my posts, I made it perfectly clear. Not that it matters to you.

[darin3]

I believe that what he meant was that the safety can no longer just cheat to the WR1's side, now he has to play more honest (for lack of a better way to describe it)...the safety will need to respect the WR2 so he will need to assess how the play is developing and that is why the CB1 won't always have deep help....

 

also I should say that I basically read the title of the thread and not much more when I agreed to BBs post....basically I was looking at it from an NFL perspective and in that sense I do think that a viable WR2 is going to make things EASIER on the WR1....then when I realized you guys were talking fantasy production I figured I would do some quick digging on guys that came to mind....and I do agree that a stud is a stud and will most likely get theirs no matter what...and with that said expect that a non-probowl type WR1 that is a true 1 would garner much more from a viable #2...unfortunately I don't have the time to dig into this anymore because I have to finish my IDP Preseason Breakdowns on 7 more divisions....WW should have the NFC East posted in the next day or so.

 

 

EDIT: I also think you guys need to have realistic expectations that a WR is going to be hard pressed to repeat a career type year...IE: I think Roddy White would have a hard time repeating what he did last year, with or without a Julio Jones.

agree...

[tazinib1]

Water is not wet. Go.

 

Neither is bacon vodka!!

Edited August 15, 2011 by tazinib1

[keggerz]

With regards to expectations some have for Roddy White you might be interested in the following info:

 

This is a list of all players in NFL history that have had 100+ catches in a season and the number of times they had 100+:

(the number in the parentheses is the players age and the plus sign means they are in the HOF)

Andre Johnson (25) 103 2006 HOU

Andre Johnson (27) 115 2008 HOU

Andre Johnson (28) 101 2009 HOU

Anquan Boldin (23) 101 2003 ARI

Anquan Boldin (25) 102 2005 ARI

Art Monk+ (27) 106 1984 WAS

Brandon Marshall (23) 102 2007 DEN

Brandon Marshall (24) 104 2008 DEN

Brandon Marshall (25) 101 2009 DEN

Brett Perriman (30) 108 1995 DET

I'M A TOOL Pickens (26) 100 1996 CIN

Charley Hennigan (29) 101 1964 HOU

Cris Carter (29) 122 1994 MIN

Cris Carter (30) 122 1995 MIN

Dallas Clark (30) 100 2009 IND

Derrick Mason (33) 103 2007 BAL

Ed McCaffrey (32) 101 2000 DEN

Eric Metcalf (27) 104 1995 ATL

Eric Moulds (29) 100 2002 BUF

Haywood Jeffires (27) 100 1991 HOU

Herman Moore (26) 123 1995 DET

Herman Moore (27) 106 1996 DET

Herman Moore (28) 104 1997 DET

Hines Ward (26) 112 2002 PIT

Isaac Bruce (23) 119 1995 STL

Jerry Rice+ (28) 100 1990 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (32) 112 1994 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (33) 122 1995 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (34) 108 1996 SFO

Jimmy Smith (30) 116 1999 JAX

Jimmy Smith (32) 112 2001 JAX

Keyshawn Johnson (29) 106 2001 TAM

LaDainian Tomlinson (24) 100 2003 SDG

Larry Centers (27) 101 1995 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (22) 103 2005 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (24) 100 2007 ARI

Lionel Taylor (26) 100 1961 DEN

Marty Booker (25) 100 2001 CHI

Marvin Harrison (27) 115 1999 IND

Marvin Harrison (28) 102 2000 IND

Marvin Harrison (29) 109 2001 IND

Marvin Harrison (30) 143 2002 IND

Michael Irvin+ (29) 111 1995 DAL

Muhsin Muhammad (27) 102 2000 CAR

Randy Moss (25) 106 2002 MIN

Randy Moss (26) 111 2003 MIN

Reggie Wayne (29) 104 2007 IND

Reggie Wayne (31) 100 2009 IND

Reggie Wayne (32) 111 2010 IND

Robert Brooks (25) 102 1995 GNB

Rod Smith (30) 100 2000 DEN

Rod Smith (31) 113 2001 DEN

Roddy White (29) 115 2010 ATL

Sterling Sharpe (27) 108 1992 GNB

Sterling Sharpe (28) 112 1993 GNB

Steve Smith (24) 107 2009 NYG

Steve Smith (26) 103 2005 CAR

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (30) 112 2007 CIN

Terance Mathis (27) 111 1994 ATL

Terrell Owens (29) 100 2002 SFO

Tim Brown (31) 104 1997 OAK

Tony Gonzalez (28) 102 2004 KAN

Torry Holt (27) 117 2003 STL

Torry Holt (29) 102 2005 STL

Troy Brown (30) 101 2001 NWE

Wes Welker (26) 112 2007 NWE

Wes Welker (27) 111 2008 NWE

Wes Welker (28) 123 2009 NWE

 

 

What the above shows is that only 10 times has a player been able to increase on their 100+ catch season the very next year.

I should also add that Chris Carter had back to back 122 catch seasons and is not included in the above...he is also the only player to catch 115 or more passes in a season and not to see a decrease in his catches the following year. Roddy caught 115 passes last year.

 

Marvin Harrison is the only player in history to increase a 100+ catch season for two consecutive seasons:

102 2000

109 2001

143 2002

 

Harrison is also the only WR to record 100+ catches in 4 consecutive seasons

 

Harrison and Rice are the only two WRs to have 4 seasons with 100 or more catches

 

Four other players have logged 3 of those types of seasons: Andre Johnson, Herman Moore, Reggie Wayne & Wes Welker

 

I guess what I am saying is to temper your expectations for Roddy White.

 

 

 

 

 

And this is a list that includes all the season the above players had above 83 catches(I pulled the all time reception leaders at Pro-Football Reference.com and that is the number they cut off at)

 

Andre Johnson (25) 103 2006 HOU

Andre Johnson (27) 115 2008 HOU

Andre Johnson (28) 101 2009 HOU

Andre Johnson (29) 86 2010 HOU

Anquan Boldin (23) 101 2003 ARI

Anquan Boldin (25) 102 2005 ARI

Anquan Boldin (26) 83 2006 ARI

Anquan Boldin (28) 89 2008 ARI

Anquan Boldin (29) 84 2009 ARI

Art Monk+ (27) 106 1984 WAS

Art Monk+ (28) 91 1985 WAS

Art Monk+ (32) 86 1989 WAS

Brandon Marshall (23) 102 2007 DEN

Brandon Marshall (24) 104 2008 DEN

Brandon Marshall (25) 101 2009 DEN

Brandon Marshall (26) 86 2010 MIA

Brett Perriman (30) 108 1995 DET

Brett Perriman (31) 94 1996 DET

I'M A TOOL Pickens (25) 99 1995 CIN

I'M A TOOL Pickens (26) 100 1996 CIN

Charley Hennigan (29) 101 1964 HOU

Cris Carter (28) 86 1993 MIN

Cris Carter (29) 122 1994 MIN

Cris Carter (30) 122 1995 MIN

Cris Carter (31) 96 1996 MIN

Cris Carter (32) 89 1997 MIN

Cris Carter (34) 90 1999 MIN

Cris Carter (35) 96 2000 MIN

Dallas Clark (30) 100 2009 IND

Derrick Mason (29) 95 2003 TEN

Derrick Mason (30) 96 2004 TEN

Derrick Mason (31) 86 2005 BAL

Derrick Mason (33) 103 2007 BAL

Ed McCaffrey (32) 101 2000 DEN

Eric Metcalf (27) 104 1995 ATL

Eric Moulds (27) 94 2000 BUF

Eric Moulds (29) 100 2002 BUF

Eric Moulds (31) 88 2004 BUF

Haywood Jeffires (27) 100 1991 HOU

Haywood Jeffires (28) 90 1992 HOU

Herman Moore (26) 123 1995 DET

Herman Moore (27) 106 1996 DET

Herman Moore (28) 104 1997 DET

Hines Ward (25) 94 2001 PIT

Hines Ward (26) 112 2002 PIT

Hines Ward (27) 95 2003 PIT

Hines Ward (33) 95 2009 PIT

Isaac Bruce (23) 119 1995 STL

Isaac Bruce (24) 84 1996 STL

Isaac Bruce (28) 87 2000 STL

Isaac Bruce (32) 89 2004 STL

Jerry Rice+ (24) 86 1986 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (28) 100 1990 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (30) 84 1992 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (31) 98 1993 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (32) 112 1994 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (33) 122 1995 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (34) 108 1996 SFO

Jerry Rice+ (39) 83 2001 OAK

Jerry Rice+ (40) 92 2002 OAK

Jimmy Smith (27) 83 1996 JAX

Jimmy Smith (30) 116 1999 JAX

Jimmy Smith (31) 91 2000 JAX

Jimmy Smith (32) 112 2001 JAX

Keyshawn Johnson (26) 83 1998 NYJ

Keyshawn Johnson (27) 89 1999 NYJ

Keyshawn Johnson (29) 106 2001 TAM

LaDainian Tomlinson (24) 100 2003 SDG

Larry Centers (27) 101 1995 ARI

Larry Centers (28) 99 1996 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (22) 103 2005 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (24) 100 2007 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (25) 96 2008 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (26) 97 2009 ARI

Larry Fitzgerald (27) 90 2010 ARI

Lionel Taylor (25) 92 1960 DEN

Lionel Taylor (26) 100 1961 DEN

Lionel Taylor (30) 85 1965 DEN

Marty Booker (25) 100 2001 CHI

Marty Booker (26) 97 2002 CHI

Marvin Harrison (27) 115 1999 IND

Marvin Harrison (28) 102 2000 IND

Marvin Harrison (29) 109 2001 IND

Marvin Harrison (30) 143 2002 IND

Marvin Harrison (31) 94 2003 IND

Marvin Harrison (32) 86 2004 IND

Marvin Harrison (34) 95 2006 IND

Michael Irvin+ (25) 93 1991 DAL

Michael Irvin+ (27) 88 1993 DAL

Michael Irvin+ (29) 111 1995 DAL

Muhsin Muhammad (26) 96 1999 CAR

Muhsin Muhammad (27) 102 2000 CAR

Muhsin Muhammad (31) 93 2004 CAR

Randy Moss (25) 106 2002 MIN

Randy Moss (26) 111 2003 MIN

Randy Moss (30) 98 2007 NWE

Randy Moss (32) 83 2009 NWE

Reggie Wayne (27) 83 2005 IND

Reggie Wayne (28) 86 2006 IND

Reggie Wayne (29) 104 2007 IND

Reggie Wayne (31) 100 2009 IND

Reggie Wayne (32) 111 2010 IND

Robert Brooks (25) 102 1995 GNB

Rod Smith (28) 86 1998 DEN

Rod Smith (30) 100 2000 DEN

Rod Smith (31) 113 2001 DEN

Rod Smith (32) 89 2002 DEN

Rod Smith (35) 85 2005 DEN

Roddy White (26) 83 2007 ATL

Roddy White (27) 88 2008 ATL

Roddy White (28) 85 2009 ATL

Roddy White (29) 115 2010 ATL

Sterling Sharpe (24) 90 1989 GNB

Sterling Sharpe (27) 108 1992 GNB

Sterling Sharpe (28) 112 1993 GNB

Sterling Sharpe (29) 94 1994 GNB

Steve Smith (24) 107 2009 NYG

Steve Smith (24) 88 2003 CAR

Steve Smith (26) 103 2005 CAR

Steve Smith (27) 83 2006 CAR

Steve Smith (28) 87 2007 CAR

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29) 90 2006 CIN

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (30) 112 2007 CIN

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (31) 92 2008 CIN

Terance Mathis (27) 111 1994 ATL

Terrell Owens (27) 97 2000 SFO

Terrell Owens (28) 93 2001 SFO

Terrell Owens (29) 100 2002 SFO

Terrell Owens (33) 85 2006 DAL

Tim Brown (28) 89 1994 RAI

Tim Brown (29) 89 1995 OAK

Tim Brown (30) 90 1996 OAK

Tim Brown (31) 104 1997 OAK

Tim Brown (33) 90 1999 OAK

Tim Brown (35) 91 2001 OAK

Tony Gonzalez (24) 93 2000 KAN

Tony Gonzalez (28) 102 2004 KAN

Tony Gonzalez (31) 99 2007 KAN

Tony Gonzalez (32) 96 2008 KAN

Tony Gonzalez (33) 83 2009 ATL

Torry Holt (26) 91 2002 STL

Torry Holt (27) 117 2003 STL

Torry Holt (28) 94 2004 STL

Torry Holt (29) 102 2005 STL

Torry Holt (30) 93 2006 STL

Torry Holt (31) 93 2007 STL

Troy Brown (29) 83 2000 NWE

Troy Brown (30) 101 2001 NWE

Troy Brown (31) 97 2002 NWE

Wes Welker (26) 112 2007 NWE

Wes Welker (27) 111 2008 NWE

Wes Welker (28) 123 2009 NWE

Wes Welker (29) 86 2010 NWE

Edited August 15, 2011 by keggerz

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'M A TOOL Pickens (26) 100 1996 CIN

not sure what the filter was picking up with our boy Pickens

[Big John]

not sure what the filter was picking up with our boy Pickens

Censored ABWF's Huddle tech-support guy.

[keggerz]

another thing that is a bit interesting is that 18 of the 68 100+ catch seasons were recorded by players 30 years or older (26.5%)but the oldest player to record 100 or more catches in a season was Jerry Rice at 34 (3 of Rice's 4 years of 100+ happened in his 30's)

[Seahawks21]

The corner either has deep help or does not have deep help. This is not a determination that any safety is allowed to make during or before a play. The leverage the corner plays with is 100% determined by the coverage called. Same thing goes for the safeties. If there is a play called where the safety has deep middle third, the corners will play with an outside, deep leverage. Plane and simple. No cheating to a side, no lining up on the hash instead of in the middle. These things do not exist.

Edited August 15, 2011 by Seahawks21

[keggerz]

The corner either has deep help or does not have deep help. This is not a determination that any safety is allowed to make during or before a play. The leverage the corner plays with is 100% determined by the coverage called. Same thing goes for the safeties. If there is a play called where the safety has deep middle third, the corners will play with an outside, deep leverage. Plane and simple. No cheating to a side, no lining up on the hash instead of in the middle. These things do not exist.

Then why do QBs "look off" the safety? That was pretty much what I was talking about...without a viable #2 then looking off doesn't really do much but if that #2 is viable and deserves respect then the safety HAS to pay attention a bit more to that player.

[detlef]

The corner either has deep help or does not have deep help. This is not a determination that any safety is allowed to make during or before a play. The leverage the corner plays with is 100% determined by the coverage called. Same thing goes for the safeties. If there is a play called where the safety has deep middle third, the corners will play with an outside, deep leverage. Plane and simple. No cheating to a side, no lining up on the hash instead of in the middle. These things do not exist.

This is what I was basing my theory on and why I interpreted BB's comment that the CB1 "may not have deep help" as "the CB1 doesn't have deep help" if, as BB implied he was helping the CB2. Because it's not like dude is waiting to see, once the play starts who needs the help. So, if the DC is moving the FS over because, for some strange reason, he's more worried about the WR2 than he is the WR1, then he is absolutely sticking the CB1 on an island.

 

Further, I would imagine that if there were two WR threats that warranted help over the top, they'd just shift to a nickle package and sacrifice a player in the box rather than let the QB find out from one play to the next which of his stud WRs has got single coverage and just feed that guy the ball.

 

I mean, if Jones is the goods and starts torching teams on the other side, does anyone really think they're going to start letting White run free so they can try and shut Jones down? Hell no. They may pull what NE did against St. Louis in the SB and just flood the secondary and give the QB all day to find nobody. But I just don't see them letting up on a proven stud like White.

[Seahawks21]

Then why do QBs "look off" the safety? That was pretty much what I was talking about...without a viable #2 then looking off doesn't really do much but if that #2 is viable and deserves respect then the safety HAS to pay attention a bit more to that player.

You're 100% correct. Obviously if a free safety is playing deep middle, he's not going to be able to get to certain routes without anticipating before the ball is thrown. That said, it is impossible to look a safety off of Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson. The safeties know exactly where they are and aren't going to forget. Looking off a defender would be much more beneficial if you didn't have an elite stud #1 WR.

[Chavez]

Where there is a disconnect is the fact that it doesn't necessarily translate into better FF production from the WR1. In fact, the stats prove it doesn't.

 

No kidding. Generally, it looks like the best conclusion you can draw is "it doesn't help, except when it does. And in either case the difference is generally not particularly significant."