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Tebow stinks.


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The thing about Denver, at least right now anyway, is that they play on the razor's edge, relying on mistake free football.

 

One of their tests will be whether they can recover from mistakes because they will make them. The other real test, as I see it, is if they can consistently win if they need to throw the ball.

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What I'm really curious to see is what will happen when Denver gets behind by 2 touchdowns or more. When the score is close, this offense works as well as it can for it's limitations. When it is not close and they have to play comeback football of major proportions, then look out.

 

Or what happens if they are ahead and don't need those late scores and heroics by Tebow. Could be the case against the Vikings on Sunday, especially if AP doesn't play. Will Tebow still be praised as having "won the game" for the Broncos? Or will people then realize it is the defense and running game (which Tebow is a big part of) that are really what is making the Broncos better.

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NFL Network has a special edition (1/2 hr) of their Playbook show (usually one hour each for AFC & NFC) featuring Tebow, Saturday at 11AM and again at 10:30PM.

 

The description says "The Playbook crew breaks down Tim Tebow and how the electric Broncos quarterback continues to pull in wins for Denver."

 

Should be interesting.

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Or what happens if they are ahead and don't need those late scores and heroics by Tebow. Could be the case against the Vikings on Sunday, especially if AP doesn't play. Will Tebow still be praised as having "won the game" for the Broncos? Or will people then realize it is the defense and running game (which Tebow is a big part of) that are really what is making the Broncos better.

It's already happened. It happened against Oakland and it happened against KC.

 

So, that means all the "I wonder ifs" have happened. They've already come back from 2 TDs or more down and they've already won a game that did not require Tebow to perform some heroic comeback. In the case of the latter, they've done so two ways, where Tebow and the offense completely had its way with the other team and where they put up rather pedestrian yardage and points, but simply did so and lead the whole game.

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OK Azz, so I've been trying to figure out why your stats regarding games where a team has rushed for 200 yards equaled better defensive stats and, yet, I found no credible correlation between teams ranked highly in rushing and ranking high in D.

 

So, I looked at what you looked at. Games this season where teams rushed for more than 200 yards. Keep in mind, it's happened a few more times since you posted yours and I obviously included those as well.

 

Below is a table, showing the 200 yard rushing games, ranked in descending order of total yardage. The columns represent rushing yards, total yards, points allowed, opponent, and how much above or below that team's average the points allowed were. After all, it's only fair to actually look at what effect a strong offense had on the opponents ability to score relative to their average.

 

 

236 557 7 indy -6.6

222 518 7 tampa -11.1

239 495 7 dallas -17.5

223 481 35 Raiders 11.4

294 445 7 stl -5.7

218 435 33 GB -1.7

213 418 3 tampa -15.1

206 418 24 Den 4.1

299 412 24 oak 0.4

236 403 13 stL 0.3

254 383 24 jets 0.7

261 380 12 cle -3

201 377 19 colts 5.4

268 374 20 stl 7.3

202 352 17 tb -1.1

208 349 13 SD -9.4

224 317 29 carolina 6.1

203 314 19 lions -9.7

244 313 10 kc -3.9

 

So, here's what I learned. Well, besides the fact that I'm pissed that the two times I have Frank Gore going against St. Louis, one is this week where I've already clinched 1st seed and in week 17 where I the season is over (but that's another story).

 

You'll notice that most of the big negative numbers exist up at the top, where the team not only ran well, but just totally dominated offensively in every manner. They ran when they wanted to run, the passed when they wanted to pass. Or, at very least, ran the ball so well, that it didn't matter. They just totally controlled the game. As you move down the list, where teams were able to run the ball effectively but had rather pedestrian yardage totals overall, you see opponents scoring better with respect to their average.

 

With three notable exceptions. One is when the Lions were held to 19 pts, nearly 10 pts below their average. And who did that? The Niners. A team who has been recognized as a team who's D is really playing great and largely responsible for their success. The other two? Where SD was held to almost 10 pts below their average and KC was held to almost 4 pts below? Those would be Denver. A team who, according to you, can thank its stout rushing game for the fact that the defensive numbers look as good as they do.

 

Something that may not actually be true. After all, when teams without great Ds rushed for 200 yards but didn't amass a ton of yards overall, their opponents scored as much or more as they usually do.

 

ETA: It should be noted that the one major outlier among the top total yardage producers, where Oakland was allowed to score 11 pts better than their average despite allowing over 200 yards and nearly 500 total, they were facing Buffalo, a team ranked 28th in scoring D.

 

So, again, maybe good Ds just play good D and bad ones don't. It might be that simple.

 

ETA2: I just noticed that I had the points allowed in the Lions game off and fixed that.

Edited by detlef
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