darin3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 IMO Belicheck will lose this game on purpose to make the Pats a wildcard in the playoffs. Teams will play them soft, maybe leading to another Superbowl appearance, but not a win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well, I don't know if this is the type of play that makes bookies rich or not. I mean, even the most novice bettor has a hard time laying 20+ points in an NFL game. And seasoned gamblers will take a +20 just on principal. It's just an automatic bet. Regardless of the teams involved. It just doesn't matter, it's 20 points in an NFL game. You either take those points and pray or it is a no play. That is why Vegas set the line so high, so that nobody will play the game. They don't even want action on this one. If the line was 14-17 NE would get pounded. At 20+ they will fend off a percentage of the typical public "favorite" bettors, while still attracting some action from sharper gamblers with that juicy plus number. One of the games in '07 where the Pats were favored by more than 20 was against the Eagles. I think AJ Feeley was getting his first start of the year and that one ended up a 3 point squeaker. This league is just way too crazy to be laying 20+ points. I can't put pen to paper and show you one way in hell that the Colts even compete in this game. It seems impossible. But gun to my head, I'll take the points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Don't encourage him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpfan1231 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well, I don't know if this is the type of play that makes bookies rich or not. I mean, even the most novice bettor has a hard time laying 20+ points in an NFL game. And seasoned gamblers will take a +20 just on principal. It's just an automatic bet. Regardless of the teams involved. It just doesn't matter, it's 20 points in an NFL game. You either take those points and pray or it is a no play. That is why Vegas set the line so high, so that nobody will play the game. They don't even want action on this one. If the line was 14-17 NE would get pounded. At 20+ they will fend off a percentage of the typical public "favorite" bettors, while still attracting some action from sharper gamblers with that juicy plus number. One of the games in '07 where the Pats were favored by more than 20 was against the Eagles. I think AJ Feeley was getting his first start of the year and that one ended up a 3 point squeaker. This league is just way too crazy to be laying 20+ points. I can't put pen to paper and show you one way in hell that the Colts even compete in this game. It seems impossible. But gun to my head, I'll take the points. Not sure I agree with you - why would Vegas not want people to bet? The goal of a bookie is to get as much money as possible on the game not the least. With that said - they want the most money as possible bet on the game where half is on the dog and half is on the favorite then the bookie can't lose they just get paid the juice with no risk. They set the line at where they think that scenario has the best chance to happen. At least that is how I thought it worked??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 IMO Belicheck will lose this game on purpose to make the Pats a wildcard in the playoffs. Teams will play them soft, maybe leading to another Superbowl appearance, but not a win. this is...the level of...i dont even know where to begin without being scolded by the Huddle brass for resorting to name calling.. i'm sorry, i whole heartedly disagree. god. i just...disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well, I don't know if this is the type of play that makes bookies rich or not. I mean, even the most novice bettor has a hard time laying 20+ points in an NFL game. And seasoned gamblers will take a +20 just on principal. It's just an automatic bet. Regardless of the teams involved. It just doesn't matter, it's 20 points in an NFL game. You either take those points and pray or it is a no play. That is why Vegas set the line so high, so that nobody will play the game. They don't even want action on this one. If the line was 14-17 NE would get pounded. At 20+ they will fend off a percentage of the typical public "favorite" bettors, while still attracting some action from sharper gamblers with that juicy plus number. One of the games in '07 where the Pats were favored by more than 20 was against the Eagles. I think AJ Feeley was getting his first start of the year and that one ended up a 3 point squeaker. This league is just way too crazy to be laying 20+ points. I can't put pen to paper and show you one way in hell that the Colts even compete in this game. It seems impossible. But gun to my head, I'll take the points. this is not how vegas, and bookies work. The line is 21 because the powers that be truly believe Patriots will win by 21 points. The over/under 48, so the Powers that be are telling us they see a NE 35 IND 14 ish came. Really 34 to 14 because the spread is now 20.5 and the ov/un is 48. That's how Vegas works. the line moves based on the bets, that's all. they want an even amount of bets on both sides, this way they are guaranteed to make money. if the spread was only 10 points, the percentage would be so far in NE favor that if they covered, Vegas would lose money. This way, it's more fair, and even and if they cover, Vegas still has an appropriate amount of bets they dont have to pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not sure I agree with you - why would Vegas not want people to bet? The goal of a bookie is to get as much money as possible on the game not the least. With that said - they want the most money as possible bet on the game where half is on the dog and half is on the favorite then the bookie can't lose they just get paid the juice with no risk. They set the line at where they think that scenario has the best chance to happen. At least that is how I thought it worked??? yes, that's how it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 yes, that's how it works. Okay, thanks for the schooling guys. I have so much to learn. Vegas sets lines without regard to the betting habits of the sheep they fleece. No psychology involved, it just strictly numbers. Okay then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 (edited) Okay, thanks for the schooling guys. I have so much to learn. Vegas sets lines without regard to the betting habits of the sheep they fleece. No psychology involved, it just strictly numbers. Okay then. what psychology is involved? gamblers will gamble regardless. You insisted that vegas doesn't want money on it. if they didn't want money, they would take it off the board. they would remove the moneyline. they want money. they dont need to know that the sheeple will take NE to win..they know the sheeple will..if the points are right. . They see a 21 point game, they see the public seeing a 21 point game (certainly 14 points means everyone bets and gives the points, and 28 points means everyone TAKES the points). that the psycology you mean? that's not psycology, but more importantly, that's not them wanting no money on the game, except for the "sharp betters" or however you put it. they want money..they just want even bets. edit: i actually said "bro". ugh, removed at once. apologies Edited November 30, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 although this does bring up a good point, doesn't Vegas hate pushes? they have to pay back all that money, no winners, no losers. The powers that be are very good, but throughout history i believe they are only a few points off. I wonder if they do that on purpose, to avoid pushes? or would they rather have a push? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Okay, thanks for the schooling guys. I have so much to learn. Vegas sets lines without regard to the betting habits of the sheep they fleece. No psychology involved, it just strictly numbers. Okay then. I agree. Vegas hides spreads just as much as they trap spreads. I've seen cases where rather than do what they're doing here, they'll actually lower the line on a favorite to make it look closer, when it fact they know that their likely to get beat on the spread no matter where they set it... Or on the opposite end, look at the way they just begged us to take the Giants the other night with 7.5 points. I knew it seemed fishy, but couldn't help myself with that line. Of course there are just as many instances where they simply want even money and take their juice. But that's how bookies work, that's not always how Vegas works. They realize that appearances are everything, especially as we keep trying to figure out ways to beat them. I've long been one to jump on nearly any double-digit dog in an NFL game, because we all know that even the crappy teams can keep close it on a given Sunday, and the percentages would seem to be in your favor that even in junktime they can keep it within the points.... But what I've learned is that for every one that wins, there's another one that was set that high because they actually were set to get beat down badly. You have to choose carefully to win by taking advantage of high spreads. But rather than trying to figure Vegas out, you really have to look at the teams and decide if the reality matches the spread, because it's a losing game to try to figure out how Vegas is suckering you (and believe me, they are)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 although this does bring up a good point, doesn't Vegas hate pushes? they have to pay back all that money, no winners, no losers. The powers that be are very good, but throughout history i believe they are only a few points off. I wonder if they do that on purpose, to avoid pushes? or would they rather have a push? Well, obvioulsy they'd rather be on the winning side, but assuming they can't achieve that, then yes, a push is great. They take the juice, while not losing anything... Same goes for bookies. But make no mistake, there are instances where they simply don't want action, and at very least try to even it out as much as they can, when they can see that they're likely to get crushed by the public, sometimes no matter where they put it. They'd rather take your money in an easier game to handicap for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'll jump all over the Pats on this one. stomp stomp This is the correct answer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 (edited) although this does bring up a good point, doesn't Vegas hate pushes? they have to pay back all that money, no winners, no losers. The powers that be are very good, but throughout history i believe they are only a few points off. I wonder if they do that on purpose, to avoid pushes? or would they rather have a push? Vegas loves pushes. Raking 10% of all the money bet rather than paying out one side or the other? That's a bookmaker's wet dream. ETA - Remember, the bookmaker is doing a great job when they exactly as much money bet on each side of a line so that they allow the losers to pay the winners - with zero risk to themselves - and they get half the vig on all money bet. Now double that income on a push. Edited November 30, 2011 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 (edited) Vegas loves pushes. Raking 10% of all the money bet rather than paying out one side or the other? That's a bookmaker's wet dream. ETA - Remember, the bookmaker is doing a great job when they exactly as much money bet on each side of a line so that they allow the losers to pay the winners - with zero risk to themselves - and they get half the vig on all money bet. Now double that income on a push. where does that 10% come from? in vegas, you pay upfront. edit: that is to say, i understand the bookies like juice to accumulate and blah blah, but in vegas, its just money up front...what am i missing? Edited November 30, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 where does that 10% come from? in vegas, you pay upfront. edit: that is to say, i understand the bookies like juice to accumulate and blah blah, but in vegas, its just money up front...what am i missing? In Vegas, you pay $110 to make a $100 bet. If you win, the $110 is returned to you plus the $100 you won. Vegas keeps the additonal $10 of the loser's $110. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The highest anyone can find is Steelers-Bucs in 1976. Pittsburgh was defending Super Bowl champ, the Bucs were first-year expansion babies who finished 0-14. The line was 24. The Steelers won, 42-0. Research shows that the biggest point spread since 1980 came in 1993 when San Francisco was a 23-point favorite over Cincinnati, a game the 49ers won just 21-8. During that time, there have been only five games with a point spread of more than 20 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The highest anyone can find is Steelers-Bucs in 1976. Pittsburgh was defending Super Bowl champ, the Bucs were first-year expansion babies who finished 0-14. The line was 24. The Steelers won, 42-0. Research shows that the biggest point spread since 1980 came in 1993 when San Francisco was a 23-point favorite over Cincinnati, a game the 49ers won just 21-8. During that time, there have been only five games with a point spread of more than 20 points. so WWTD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Okay, thanks for the schooling guys. I have so much to learn. Vegas sets lines without regard to the betting habits of the sheep they fleece. No psychology involved, it just strictly numbers. Okay then. lol - u nailed it. Especially in the NFL, u guys thinking Vegas wants 50/50 action have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 what psychology is involved? gamblers will gamble regardless. You insisted that vegas doesn't want money on it. if they didn't want money, they would take it off the board. they would remove the moneyline. they want money. they dont need to know that the sheeple will take NE to win..they know the sheeple will..if the points are right. . They see a 21 point game, they see the public seeing a 21 point game (certainly 14 points means everyone bets and gives the points, and 28 points means everyone TAKES the points). that the psycology you mean? that's not psycology, but more importantly, that's not them wanting no money on the game, except for the "sharp betters" or however you put it. they want money..they just want even bets. edit: i actually said "bro". ugh, removed at once. apologies Bro? Loogie.... you have been gone too long. Moran. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Especially in the NFL, u guys thinking Vegas wants 50/50 action have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Well, I'm willing to be educated. Please explain your position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 (edited) Well, I'm willing to be educated. Please explain your position. I don't think he's saying that Vegas doesn't want even money, in many cases they do, but rather that line placements and movements do not strictly correlate with seeking to get even money and pushes. It can be just as related to them scaring you off from a line that you might destroy them on no matter where they put it, or trapping you into picking a team that they have strong indication will not live up to the public's expectations. I most certainly do not believe that they always set lines just to get even money, when the reality is that they have to take all bets, and so they have to set it up to offset those occasions where they're going to get their ass handed to them by the public, by either getting them to bet elsewhere or on the other side to stop the bleeding, or getting it back later with trap spreads. (ETA: well, they don't have to, if they're actually good enough at getting even money, but that's quite a reach to think that they're happy just getting the juice, with taking on the risk that the might give it all back and more on one line) (ETA2: I think a distinction should be made between bookies who take the books, and "Vegas" that represents those who make the books. Their priorities are different). Edited November 30, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I don't think he's saying that Vegas doesn't want even money I believe he said exactly that. Please let him speak for himself. I am dying to hear why Vegas would not desire an outcome where they would collect 10% of all monies bet - and here's the kicker - with absolutely zero risk to themselves, on each and every game played if they could get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I believe he said exactly that. Please let him speak for himself. I am dying to hear why Vegas would not desire an outcome where they would collect 10% of all monies bet - and here's the kicker - with absolutely zero risk to themselves, on each and every game played if they could get it. am busy....IMO Vegas would like even wagering on about half the games - and the other half they have a decided opinion on who who is going to win and cover, and adjust the lines accordingly. I have seen too many reverse line moves, and guys in the know have told me as much. These guys setting lines are sharp, and do this for a living, do you honestly think they can't set a line for joe public to jump all over - while having a pretty good idea the other side is gonna cover. What makes you think these stat pros can't pick winners with all of that info at their disposal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I believe he said exactly that. Please let him speak for himself. I am dying to hear why Vegas would not desire an outcome where they would collect 10% of all monies bet - and here's the kicker - with absolutely zero risk to themselves, on each and every game played if they could get it. OK, sorry to ruin your gotcha moment for him, but I'm allowed to have an opinion too, no? What Vegas "desires" is different from reality... You don't think they actually get even money on all the games, do you? Then no, it matters not what they desire, it matters what they think is going to happen, which could be 3 outcomes: even money, public wins, vegas wins.... So obviously they have to balance and come out ahead on those 3 outcomes by influencing bettors in different directions, which might not necessarily be to get even money in some games. It's like having a bunch of accounts you barely make money on, some that are actually costing you money right now, but a few golden gooses that make it all worth it. I absolutely do not believe, nor should anyone, that they're just sitting back and hoping that if they give you another point or two you're just going to even it all out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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