Zooty Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 (edited) So for the last year or two I have seen drafts, mocks and advice to take Graham and in some years Gronk in the first. I have not had the balls to pull the trigger on this but was wondering if you have and how did your team do? I play mostly dynasty but I don't remember the team who had Graham doing well in any of my redrafts. Edited July 31, 2014 by Zooty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I don't think it's about having the balls to do it, I think it's more about playing the odds. I treat the TE position the same way as QBs Right now, the only two TEs that anyone would consider as a 1st round pick are Graham and Gronk. If you take one of those two in the first round, the risk/reward factor is too great. I'd much rather fill up my RB/WR starters and then grab a top 5 player in the 4th or 5th round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I think league format plays a role in this. FFPC format where TEs get 1.5 PPR causes greate rseparation in value between Graham (and maybe a couple other top TEs) and the rest of the pack. Add in the 2 flex spots along with this rule, and all of a sudden TEs as a whole see a increase in value, with the top TEs seeing an even greater increase. In more standard leagues (ie no separate rule for TE PPR, less flex positions), TEs aren't as valuable as a whole. Graham likely separates himself enough that if you really don't think there is much drop off at the RB/WR options you are looking at with a current pick vs. your next few picks, then Graham can be a legit option in the late 1st. But, you need him to continue performing well above the other TE options and you also need to hit on having those later round RBs/WRs not get outperformed that much by the late 1st/early 2nd RB/WR options. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 BC how do flex spots make affect the value of a top TE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QFFL Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Graham went in the first round in every draft I have done so far. Compared to some of the RB pick in first round, he probably is a safer pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 BC how do flex spots make affect the value of a top TE? Because it gives you the ability to start multiple TEs and many owners will take a 2nd TE earlier because it's a better value pick in latter rounds than say a WR5, which in turn drives up the value of a starter TE due to availability. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 BC how do flex spots make affect the value of a top TE? That comment was directed to the FFPC format, because in that league where TEs get 1.5 PPR, the second/third tier of TEs can become very valuable flex options. The top TEs also separate themselves from that 2nd/3rd tier more because of the volume of catches they get. For example, Graham had 86 catches last year.. the #12 TE in terms of receptions was Timothy Wright with 54, 32 less. In standard PPR, this is a 2 PPG advantage for Graham... that jumps to a 3 PPG advantage in the 1.5 PPR league. That's why I said TEs as a whole are less valuable when they don't get more per reception than the other positions. There is less separation within the position scoring wise, thus reduced value in comparison. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Great discussion but has anyone actually seen someone win a league after a TE in the 1st round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Great discussion but has anyone actually seen someone win a league after a TE in the 1st round? Some FFPC leagues were won by teams that drafted Graham in the first. In theory you could win a league drafting a kicker in the first round if you hit on your following picks.... just like you could win taking an RB in the first round that blows his knee out week one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Great discussion but has anyone actually seen someone win a league after a TE in the 1st round? In tiered PPR leagues, it happens quite often. In regular (PPR or non) leagues, I would guess that it happens with much less regularity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 In tiered PPR leagues, it happens quite often. In regular (PPR or non) leagues, I would guess that it happens with much less regularity. But that is likely because in non-tiered PPR it is much less likely that a TE will (or should) be taken in the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Some FFPC leagues were won by teams that drafted Graham in the first. In theory you could win a league drafting a kicker in the first round if you hit on your following picks.... just like you could win taking an RB in the first round that blows his knee out week one. In tiered PPR leagues, it happens quite often. In regular (PPR or non) leagues, I would guess that it happens with much less regularity. But that is likely because in non-tiered PPR it is much less likely that a TE will (or should) be taken in the first round. Yeah that's kind of what I'm thinking. It really is only a plus move in tiered leagues and even then you need to hit "sleepers" or guys outperforming their draft position at other positions later in the draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 even then you need to hit "sleepers" or guys outperforming their draft position at other positions later in the draft I think this is true of any league, regardless of structure and who or what position you take with your first pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 I think this is true of any league, regardless of structure and who or what position you take with your first pick. well yeah but it seems like a TE in the first leaves you chasing RBs and WRs instead of just one of the two..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Great discussion guys and thanks for the feedback on value of TE with regard to flex, tiered PPR and so on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 (edited) In my opinion, Graham is the safest pick one can make in the first round. Claiming TE's are deep is a ruse, because there are only about four that have a consistent role as a WR. Last year in the Ladder (WCOFF scoring), Graham was 24th overall, 1 point behind Calvin Johnson, 2 points behind AJ Green and 11 points behind Josh Gordon (most of the top 24 was QB's). Tony Gonzales was 80 points behind him. Greg Olson at #7 was 113 points lower. In looking at the other stats for TE's, most of them score their points by scoring TD's. Gonzo scores 39 points in one game, but has three games at <6. Graham had one game at 4.5, but the rest of the games he played in were over 10. In looking at the value of having a stud TE, let alone thee stud TE, if you have a mandatory TE position, then someone has to fill that slot. If you only get 5 points a game, it doesn't matter that your stud RB scored 15 points, because combined they score 20. If you have a lesser RB, the delta is going to be consistently higher, so I'm not buying the argument you'll be *scrambling* for a RB or WR later, because you've already planned on it. Also worth noting is the team the TE plays for. Greg Olson is (IMHO) not going to do as well this year. The reason is the supporting cast is weaker with less talent at WR, making him draw better coverage. In the case of the Bronco's with Julius Thomas, there will be many more scoring opportunities, as the corners have to cover DT, Welker and Sanders. In the case of NO, Graham is to go-to guy for Brees because he's a monster with basketball hands. He's like Calvin in the red zone, because if the QB can loft it just high enough for him to catch it, he'll prolly be able to leap over the shorter dude covering him. If you think Jordan Cameron is going to repeat last year's stats, meethinks not. Without Josh Gordon, there's less to cover and he draws more attention. Think Kyle Rudolph will fill the void? Who will be throwing to him? What would your plan be in the red zone, throw it to him, or give it to AP? Think Gronk will play every game... if you do, then maybe, just maybe, a best-case scenario plays out, but I don't think so. Realistically, Gronk is still in rehab and his body has to overcome all the punishment. In his best years, he had Hernandez as a bookend, which opened things up. Taking Gronk early is a hugh mistake this year IMO. When the chips fall, Graham is as close as you can get to a lock with your first pick. I planned on taking him with the #3 pick in the Ladder, but drank the KoolAid and drafted Calvin instead. I did wind up with Julius Thomas with the second pick, but being a Denver homer I had to reach to make sure the position was covered with someone I could count on. What are the odds your first round RB will pan out? If you take him, you won't be playing against him and you won't have to pick between two TE's and hope one of them scores a TD. How did last year go. Did you expect 5 points from your mandatory TE slot every week? FF is changing and the old-school RB "must have" draft strategy is all but dead with the RBBC, but you may get lucky if you go that route. Edited August 1, 2014 by Thews40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joebirds55 Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 In my opinion, Graham is the safest pick one can make in the first round. Claiming TE's are deep is a ruse, because there are only about four that have a consistent role as a WR. Last year in the Ladder (WCOFF scoring), Graham was 24th overall, 1 point behind Calvin Johnson, 2 points behind AJ Green and 11 points behind Josh Gordon (most of the top 24 was QB's). Tony Gonzales was 80 points behind him. Greg Olson at #7 was 113 points lower. In looking at the other stats for TE's, most of them score their points by scoring TD's. Gonzo scores 39 points in one game, but has three games at <6. Graham had one game at 4.5, but the rest of the games he played in were over 10. In looking at the value of having a stud TE, let alone thee stud TE, if you have a mandatory TE position, then someone has to fill that slot. If you only get 5 points a game, it doesn't matter that your stud RB scored 15 points, because combined they score 20. If you have a lesser RB, the delta is going to be consistently higher, so I'm not buying the argument you'll be *scrambling* for a RB or WR later, because you've already planned on it. Also worth noting is the team the TE plays for. Greg Olson is (IMHO) not going to do as well this year. The reason is the supporting cast is weaker with less talent at WR, making him draw better coverage. In the case of the Bronco's with Julius Thomas, there will be many more scoring opportunities, as the corners have to cover DT, Welker and Sanders. In the case of NO, Graham is to go-to guy for Brees because he's a monster with basketball hands. He's like Calvin in the red zone, because if the QB can loft it just high enough for him to catch it, he'll prolly be able to leap over the shorter dude covering him. If you think Jordan Cameron is going to repeat last year's stats, meethinks not. Without Josh Gordon, there's less to cover and he draws more attention. Think Kyle Rudolph will fill the void? Who will be throwing to him? What would your plan be in the red zone, throw it to him, or give it to AP? Think Gronk will play every game... if you do, then maybe, just maybe, a best-case scenario plays out, but I don't think so. Realistically, Gronk is still in rehab and his body has to overcome all the punishment. In his best years, he had Hernandez as a bookend, which opened things up. Taking Gronk early is a hugh mistake this year IMO. When the chips fall, Graham is as close as you can get to a lock with your first pick. I planned on taking him with the #3 pick in the Ladder, but drank the KoolAid and drafted Calvin instead. I did wind up with Julius Thomas with the second pick, but being a Denver homer I had to reach to make sure the position was covered with someone I could count on. What are the odds your first round RB will pan out? If you take him, you won't be playing against him and you won't have to pick between two TE's and hope one of them scores a TD. How did last year go. Did you expect 5 points from your mandatory TE slot every week? FF is changing and the old-school RB "must have" draft strategy is all but dead with the RBBC, but you may get lucky if you go that route. Hmmmm....with the 4th pick if Calvin is gone at 3 I planned on ap or forte. You now have me considering graham at 4... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeo2007 Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 I think I'm still taking Eddie lacy at 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 I think that if you have a shot at Charles, McCoy, or Forte, then you have to take them. After that I can see going Graham, but personally, I would rather have Megatron. Graham does provide a large positional advantage, but most leagues only require 1 TE, which makes streaming an option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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