Lamont Jordon Projections?

[MikesVikes]

I doubt he will be drafted real early as long as you don't think late 2nd round is too early.  I think people see those numbers as a real possibility but most are smart enough to temper their excitement enough to draft some of the more proven guys ahead of him.

 

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Exactly.

[Whipdancer]

This leads me to think that he will be drafted much earlier than I would ever consider him.

 

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Well, depending on when the RB selection starts to be depleted... I could see taking him in the 2nd/3rd.

 

I'm think 1100/10 is very conservative (good enough for a #2 in a 12 or 16 team league) and his upside is very nice (1500/14 as a high end projection).

Edited July 25, 2005 by Whipdancer

[gogo2146]

I think 1400 12-15 td's

I have as my # 2 behind C. Dillon then I have R. Brown and R. Williams as #3's

[The Stoner]

I love taking chances on RBs in new situations and opportunities.  I didn't hesitate to draft Deuce McAllister after the smoke cleared in New Orleans.    That worked out well enough to try that again.  I just don't see a successful team in Oakland this year.  1400/14 backs tend to come from solid teams.  I don't see Oakland as being a solid team this year.

 

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They'll be very solid on offense. If the defense is suspect, they could be in for some shoot outs. That's always good in fantasy land.

[Rovers]

Whoa.  1,300?  1,400???  He'll be lucky to crack 1,000.  He's their "feature back", but the Raidahs are gonna throw a TON... and they have Fargas and Zereoue for "changes of pace".  I'd say 900 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games (he'll get a minor injury halfway through the season).

 

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No way does Fargas steal carries unless Jordan gets hurt. Zereoue is gone, as mentioned, the biggest threat comes from Crockett, who is a pretty darn good blocking FB and difficult to stop at the goal line as a ball carrier. The yardage will come. If Jordan averages 20 carries a game, and has even a paltry 4.0 YPC, that's still 1280 yards. If he gets 15 carries a game with a YPC of 4.5, that's still over 1000 yards. To say he'll be lucky to get 1000 yards means he would be one of the biggest busts in the NFL this year...... so is that what you are saying? That you think he'll get fewer than 15 carries a game? Or be well under a YPC of 4.5?

 

The injury prediction is pretty much a stretch..... just say you hate the guy, it would make more sense!

[Vet]

As one who's seen every carry LaMont Jordan has ever had in the NFL, I'm 100% comfortable saying that you all are VASTLY overrating him. Most of his rushing yards came in garbage time. Good change of pace back, not great up the middle for a man of his size. Why do you think the Jets took goal line duties away from him last year?

 

I'd take him in the 7th or 8th round of my fantasy draft is he was still there.

 

750 yards, 4-5 rushing TDs.

[Rovers]

As one who's seen every carry LaMont Jordan has ever had in the NFL, I'm 100% comfortable saying that you all are VASTLY overrating him.  Most of his rushing yards came in garbage time.  Good change of pace back, not great up the middle for a man of his size.  Why do you think the Jets took goal line duties away from him last year? 

 

I'd take him in the 7th or 8th round of my fantasy draft is he was still there.

 

750 yards, 4-5 rushing TDs.

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Vet. sometimes I wonder if we watch the same team. Here is something from another thread earlier in the year that I wrote:

 

While some question Jordan's abilty to stay healthy as an every down back is a head scratcher to me, simply because he hasn't done it yet? He's only 5'10" but weighs 230. I've seen him play more than any of you. One reason he will do well in Oakland is that he is a better receiving RB than Curtis Martin is, and Norv Turner loves to pass to the RB in his offense. Jordan is also better than Martin between the tackles. He'll get three yards even if there is no running lane.

 

Last year, Jordan's avg/carry was 5.2 yards, and his avg/rec was 7.5. Compare that to Martin's 4.6 and 6.0. Another stupid rap on Jordan is that 2/3's of his stats were compiled in the 4th quarter, against tired defenses. What people overlook is that all of that came in games the Jets had the lead, and were trying to take time off the clock. The opposing defenses knew the Jets would run the ball. Still, he put up impressive numbers. Even last year, when Martin won the rushing title, there were people in NY who thought Jordan was the better RB.

Don't compare Jordan to Martin? Why not? For one thing, over 50% of Jordan's rushes did in fact come on first down.... more numbers:

1st down- 50 carries

2nd down- 24 "

3rd down- 18 "

4th down- 1 "

 

Now, 49 of Jordan's carries did come in the 4th quarter. He averaged 4.9/carry.... but he also had 20 3rd quarter carries, for a whopping 7.8 yards/carry. This where the whole myth about him only running the ball against tired D's is nonsense. Opposing defenses KNOW that if Jordan is in the backfield, there is an 85% chance he gets the ball, so they key on him. Still, he racked up impressive numbers.

 

But, I know this is just an excersice, no matter what I say, the Jordan non-believers will remain so. We'll all just have to see how it plays out.

 

There is also another reason Jordan didn't do as well as Martin in goal line carries. When Jordan was in, he got the ball. When Martin was in, the Jets might just as easilly throw.... it was more difficult to key on Martin in short and goal. 750 yards, Vet? That's just nuts.

[broncosn05]

1100 rushing yrds. 7 TDs

400 receiving 3 TDs

 

[Vet]

Rovers -

 

Jordan got 115 of his 479 yards rushing in the 2nd half of the Monday Night blow-out over Miami. I was at that game and it was clear that the Fish had packed it in at half-time. I actuall say Dave Wanstadt flipping through the "help wanted" ads on the sideline about 2:00 into the 3rd quarter.

 

In any case - me saying he's not going to be able to carry the load is the same as you saying he will be. We're both just guessing at this point - which I guess is what makes FF fun.

[BS Miscreant]

As one who's seen every carry LaMont Jordan has ever had in the NFL, I'm 100% comfortable saying that you all are VASTLY overrating him.  Most of his rushing yards came in garbage time.  Good change of pace back, not great up the middle for a man of his size.  Why do you think the Jets took goal line duties away from him last year? 

 

I'd take him in the 7th or 8th round of my fantasy draft is he was still there.

 

750 yards, 4-5 rushing TDs.

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I appreciate the fact that you've actually seen all of his carries and that you think he's overhyped but those stats are reeediculous. If he gets only 250 carries, that's only 3 ypc. You're kidding right? I'm not saying he's gonna average 5.2 ypc like last year but 43 of his 93 carries last year were when they were behind or up by 7pts or less(not garbage time) and he averaged nearly 4.3 ypc. And I don't think they took the goalline duties away from him. What I think happened is CuMar was an absolute beast and no caoch in his right mind would take the ball out his hands when it mattered most.

[broncosn05]

The statement I made above is bull$hit we can't say this guy is a great RB when he hasn't been the #1 RB and if Curtis Martin can get a rushing title under the team then that leads me to believe that fresh legs should have a good outcome when the defense has been out there all day and he has had 7-8 carries

[broncosn05]

Rovers -

 

Jordan got 115 of his 479 yards rushing in the 2nd half of the Monday Night blow-out over Miami.  I was at that game and it was clear that the Fish had packed it in at half-time.  I actuall say Dave Wanstadt flipping through the "help wanted" ads on the sideline about 2:00 into the 3rd quarter.

 

In any case - me saying he's not going to be able to carry the load is the same as you saying he will be.  We're both just guessing at this point - which I guess is what makes FF fun. 

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Vet give it up and admit that you a Jet fan are glad LaMont is gone.

[Vet]

I appreciate the fact that you've actually seen all of his carries and that you think he's overhyped but those stats are reeediculous.  If he gets only 250 carries, that's only 3 ypc.  You're kidding right?  I'm not saying he's gonna average 5.2 ypc like last year but 43 of his 93 carries last year were when they were behind or up by 7pts or less(not garbage time) and he averaged nearly 4.3 ypc.  And I don't think they took the goalline duties away from him.  What I think happened is CuMar was an absolute beast and no caoch in his right mind would take the ball out his hands when it mattered most.

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I don't think he'll get 250 carries. I'm not going to try to predict an injury or anything, but I think half way through the season when Jordan is unproductive he'll see his carries per game diminish.

 

Jordan would have had more carries and would have retained the goal line duties if he hadn't come into camp fat and sulking and if he had been able to average more than 2.9 YPC in the red-zone.

 

We'll see.

[Vet]

Vet give it up and admit that you a Jet fan are glad LaMont is gone.

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No. I would have liked to see him stay as a back-up and a change of pace guy until Martin is done. But there is NO WAY I would have given starting RB money. But hey, I'm sure Al Davis knows what he's doing....

[whomper]

Ive gone on record saying this guy will be a fantasy stud this year..I see 1300 and between 15-17 tds. If he is there in the 2nd round im gonna pick him. I love the way this guy runs. If he stays healthy he will be a no doubt first round pick next year in all fantasy drafts.

[Big Score 1]

I think possibly most people's Jordan projections, are way, way, way underestimating the impact Randy Moss is likely to have on this offense.

 

Make no mistake about it, Moss is the marquee player signing by the Raiders this off season......not Jordan.

 

Moss was not signed to open up the run game for Jordan.

 

Jordan was signed to give the ground game some much needed ummph and open up the passing game for Moss & Porter.

 

Norv knew Tyronne Wheatley's best days were behind him. He couldn't stay healthy and thus failed to get the job done. Obviously Norv didn't feel the other backs on the roster, Fargas, Zeroue, Redmond could either.

 

Can you guys tell me what NFL team is and always has been, synonymous with the deep game? Wouldn't that be Al "Bombs Away" Davis and his Raiders?

 

Can you guys tell me which NFL team had the fourth most pass attempts last year?

 

Can you guys tell me which NFL team had one of the absolute worst D's last year and this year traded away their starting Middle Linebacker and one of their starting CB's?

 

Generally, what type of offensive games do you end up with when you have a bad D? Typically, you'll find yourself involved in a lot of shootouts. I know the usual thinking is for teams to try and keep the other teams offense off the field and thus protect the weak D with a ball control philosophy, but it rarely works out that way.

 

Moss is also one of the pre-eminent Goal Line threats in the game today. For that matter, Porter ain't no slouch himself.

 

I see Jordan with right around a 1,000 yds rushing, maybe another 200 yds in the passing game and 7 to 9 TD's total.

 

My .02..........for what it's worth.

[Rovers]

I think possibly most people's Jordan projections, are way, way, way underestimating the impact Randy Moss is likely to have on this offense.

 

Make no mistake about it, Moss is the marquee player signing by the Raiders this off season......not Jordan.

 

Moss was not signed to open up the run game for Jordan.

 

Jordan was signed to give the ground game some much needed ummph and open up the passing game for Moss & Porter.

 

Norv knew Tyronne Wheatley's best days were behind him. He couldn't stay healthy and thus failed to get the job done. Obviously Norv didn't feel the other backs on the roster, Fargas, Zeroue, Redmond could either.

 

Can you guys tell me what NFL team is and always has been, synonymous with the deep game? Wouldn't that be Al "Bombs Away" Davis and his Raiders?

 

Can you guys tell me which NFL team had the fourth most pass attempts last year?

 

Can you guys tell me which NFL team had one of the absolute worst D's last year and this year traded away their starting Middle Linebacker and one of their starting CB's?

 

Generally, what type of offensive games do you end up with when you have a bad D? Typically, you'll find yourself involved in a lot of shootouts. I know the usual thinking is for teams to try and keep the other teams offense off the field and thus protect the weak D with a ball control philosophy, but it rarely works out that way.

 

Moss is also one of the pre-eminent Goal Line threats in the game today. For that matter, Porter ain't no slouch himself.

 

I see Jordan with right around a 1,000 yds rushing, maybe another 200 yds in the passing game and 7 to 9 TD's total.

 

My .02..........for what it's worth. 

 

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I'd like to see more.... how many carries you think Jordan will get, and what his YPC will be. I mean, if you think he gets only 225 carries and has a 4.3 YPC.... that would be just under 1000 yards. So, either you think Jordan averages less much less than 4.3 YPC or that he only gets 14 carries a game.

 

People that have Jordan under 1000 yards this year have not thought it through, period. He will be near 300 carries, and his YPC will be well above 4.0. That means 1200 yards as a minimum. Again, more of a concern to me is the loss of goal line carries to Crockett. I'm going to GARANTEE that Jordan gets a MINIMUM of 1300 yards, barring any extended injury (more than 2 games) . How many TD's is another question.

[Avernus]

I could see Jordan getting 1100 yds and 200 rec with 7-9 TD's total...

 

if he missed at least 4-5 games...

 

it's too easy to get 1000 yds nowadays...it's what?..a little over 65 yds a game?...

 

1300 yds should be easily realistic...

 

it's the double digit TD's that are the question with Moss likely getting red zone TD's off of play action..

[Rovers]

I could see Jordan getting 1100 yds and 200 rec with 7-9 TD's total...

 

if he missed at least 4-5 games...

 

it's too easy to get 1000 yds nowadays...it's what?..a little over 65 yds a game?...

 

1300 yds should be easily realistic...

 

it's the double digit TD's that are the question with Moss likely getting red zone TD's off of play action..

 

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Avernus, exactly! 1000 yards is NOTHING for a feature back, I don't care what team it is. It's the TD numbers that worry me MUCH more when evaluating Jordan's value. Unless he gets hurt, 1300 is almost an automatic. Some of these low projections are just as nuts as the 14 TD ones are.

[BS Miscreant]

Jordan would have had more carries and would have retained the goal line duties if he hadn't come into camp fat and sulking and if he had been able to average more than 2.9 YPC in the red-zone.

 

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NEWSFLASH!!! This just in!!! Martin averaged 3.0 YPC in the red-zone but still managed to lead the league in rushing. You're right, Jordan sucks.

[Rovers]

NEWSFLASH!!!  This just in!!!  Martin averaged 3.0 YPC in the red-zone but still managed to lead the league in rushing.  You're right, Jordan sucks.

 

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Vet can't help it, he's a Jets darksider. He is even a darksider for ex-Jets!

[Big Score 1]

I'd like to see more.... how many carries you think Jordan will get, and what his YPC will be. I mean, if you think he gets only 225 carries and has a 4.3 YPC.... that would be just under 1000 yards. So, either you think Jordan averages less much less than 4.3 YPC or that he only gets 14 carries a game.

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Raiders Backfield total carries last year as follows;

 

Featured Back = 197 carries ~ 112 went to Zereoue and another 85 went to Wheatley.

3rd Down / Change of Pace Back = 56 carries ~ 35 to Fargas & another 21 to Redmond.

Full Back = 48 to Crockett

 

That's 301 total carries from the entire Raider Backfield last year.

 

I project Oakland's Backfield carries to increase from last years 301 total, to around a 340 total this year, with Jordan being the main beneficiary.

 

I do not expect a decrease in either Crocketts carries, or the 3rd Down / Change of Pace Back's carries.

 

So I expect Jordan to see approx 230 to 240 carries. If we split the difference and give Jordan 235 carries at a 4.5 ypc (a respectable & reasonable ypc), that comes to 1,057.5 yds.

[Rovers]

Raiders Backfield total carries last year as follows;

 

Featured Back = 197 carries ~ 112 went to Zereoue and another 85 went to Wheatley.

3rd Down / Change of Pace Back = 56 carries ~ 35 to Fargas & another 21 to Redmond.

Full Back = 48 to Crockett

 

That's 301 total carries from the entire Raider Backfield last year.

 

I project Oakland's Backfield carries to increase from last years 301 total, to around a 340 total this year, with Jordan being the main beneficiary.

 

I do not expect a decrease in either Crocketts carries, or the 3rd Down / Change of Pace Back's carries.

 

So I expect Jordan to see approx 230 to 240 carries. If we split the difference and give Jordan 235 carries at a 4.5 ypc (a respectable & reasonable ypc), that comes to 1,057.5 yds.

 

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A reasonable projection, but I differ on several things. I think Redmond will rarely touch the ball. Since Jordan is an under rated pass reciever, I don't see a whole lot of the change of pace RB substitution. I think Crockett stays near the 48 carries he had last year. I also think the Raiders will have something closer to 375 rushes or so. If Jordan can average the 4.5 YPC you mentioned, Turner will not go absolutely pass crazy. The run may get even more attention, if the Oakland D is as bad as expected. The first half of the Oakland game plan may well be to keep the D off the field, and give them a breather if the running game is working. Turner understands TOP and how it can affect players late in the game.

 

I still see Jordan at or near 300 carries. I also see some long runs when the Raiders are trying to play catch up. Not the 50 yard ones, but more 20 yard runs, which should take advantage of nickel and dime coverages the opposing D may employ. Maybe we could create a Jordan pool, based on yardage and TD's? Just a thought. I'd bet the farm on 1200 yards. TD's, I'm not so sure about.

[Big Score 1]

As bad as I expect the Raider's D to be, I just don't see how Norv is going to be able to coax another 75 carries more than he did last year. A 30 to 40 increase I can see, but not a 75.

 

I totally understand the reasoning for a Coach to want to play ball control with the run game, but every team I can remember with a bad D, inevitably had to abondon the run, in favor of the passing game to play catch up.

 

Given Al Davis's notorious preference for the long ball, Collins strength at throwing the deep ball and the acquisition of Moss, I think Jordan was acquired to set the table for the Moss & Porter, in regards to the Passing game.

 

I do not think Moss was acquired & paired with Porter, to set the table for Jordan and the Run game.

 

I could well be wrong Rovers, but that's how I see the Raider's offense shaking out.

Edited July 26, 2005 by Big Score 1

[Avernus]

wow...I think we have probably the biggest RB debate for the 2005 season...

 

the aquisition of L Jordan as a feature back with the addition of R Moss into the offense...