Value Plays: Wide Receiver

[Jackass]

April 6, 2006 3:16 PM

 

D-Jax still has Knee issues - not even sure he will play this season.

 

 

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Just curious. what is this statement based on?

[Otis]

Another good report on Clayton:

 

Weight won't be an issue for Buccaneers wide receiver Michael Clayton this year. The second-year wideout currently weighs in at 212 pounds, down from the 225 pounds he weighed when he reported to training camp last year. "It's a whole lot easier on your body," Clayton told Friday's Tampa Tribune. "It's a big difference when you can stop on a dime and come out of your cuts."

 

Clayton battled a knee injury in his rookie season that prevented him from running during the last offseason. His knee appears to be healthy and the fact that he's in good shape is encouraging. The big questions now are whether Chris Simms can get him the ball and whether there's enough to go around to keep both Clayton and Joey Galloway's fantasy owners happy.

[Otis]

Here is another value play.

 

What if I told you there was a guy out there who has played 16 games in 4 of the past 6 seasons.

 

In those seasons, he had receiving totals of 1399, 1312, 1265, and 1340.

 

And, on top of that, his team made a huge free agent acquisition at QB this year, picking up a QB who threw for 3500 yards last year.

 

Best of all, I'll bet this guy is coming off one of his worst statistical years ever, mainly because he was not healthy last year and, as a result, can be had VERY CHEAP, PARTICULARLY in dynasty leagues (although I think he is a better play in a yearly league.)

 

Who is he?

 

Joe Horn

 

Horn could end up being one of the best value plays out there this year.

[Seahawks21]

You boys have at those overweight non-producers. If they slide to the 12th I'll consider em'. Let somebody else deal with the headache.

 

DJax is fine and is gonna be huge if he can manage to stay healthy. However, drafting my local in Seattle, there is no way to get any kind of value pick on him. Heck, he'll be gone well before my first pick in the 6th round.

[Randall]

Last year it was TJ Housh in the 9th round for many. This season I got Driver in the 9th in a January draft, but now? Koren Robinson.

 

If you are going McNair Derrick Mason may also be cheap.

Edited May 20, 2006 by Randall

[Wizards]

IMO

 

David Givens will be great value as a #2 on Titans with Bennett on other side....doesn't matter whether it's McNair, Volek or Young....Givens gets separation and will be a Hines Ward type for that team.....

 

Reche Caldwell should be great value too...he'll drop into middle to late rounds....probably 8th or so...and as #2 on Tom Brady offense...could be great late value on WR....

[Otis]

IMO

 

David Givens will be great value as a #2 on Titans with Bennett on other side....doesn't matter whether it's McNair, Volek or Young....Givens gets separation and will be a Hines Ward type for that team.....

 

Reche Caldwell should be great value too...he'll drop into middle to late rounds....probably 8th or so...and as #2 on Tom Brady offense...could be great late value on WR....

 

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The problem with Givens is that there are many other talented young WRs on that team. I love Brandon Jones, and Roydell Williams can play too. Not to mention the way they love to spread the ball to the TE position.

 

Is Caldwell really the No. 2 in NE? If so, that's an interesting play.

[Avernus]

RE: Clayton- He had a bad knee last year, and recently spoke about how he should have gotten it scoped before the 2005 regular season. As soon as 2005 ended, he got the knee worked on. Now, he's shed a few pounds, and looks to me like he's ready to be a force again.... he's my sleeper WR to get into the top ten. That isn't my projection, just my upside for him. I'll be surprised if he isn't top 20 this year.

 

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good info here...even I wasn't aware of this..

[Avernus]

The problem with Givens is that there are many other talented young WRs on that team.  I love Brandon Jones, and Roydell Williams can play too.  Not to mention the way they love to spread the ball to the TE position.

 

Is Caldwell really the No. 2 in NE?  If so, that's an interesting play.

 

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I've always liked Caldwell....

 

the problem is IMO that Brees wasn't on the same page with him...

 

Gates is an amazing safety valve if you lack serious talent.....and McCardell just got open deep at times...

 

Caldwell could really make some plays in NE as the #2 or #3...pending on which TE starts lol..

[tomfin2000]

Some other guys I like as value plays right now (without any particular analysis, I'm feeling lazy):

 

Darrel Jackson

Andre Johnson

The JAX WRs (assuming you pick the right one -- I like Matt Jones)

Muhsin Muhammed

Koren Robinson

 

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There's always a spot on my team for DJax. When he plays, he produces. Period.

 

Andre Johnson? Please tell me you guys aren't going to fall for that one again. I agree with the other poster. Moulds is the value pick on that team.

 

You can see what I think of the Jax WRs in one of the other threads. I'm a homer and I say avoid 'em like the plague unless you've got a deep bench.

 

Muhammed is a good value pick. If Greise becomes the starter, he will be a great value pick.

 

Robinson is a guy that you roll the dice on if you're in a 12 team league and your draft goes into double digits. I doubt he'll be good for anything other than spot duty.

 

I think Mark Clayton is a GREAT call if McNair becomes a Raven.

 

A couple that I'll add that no one has mentioned:

 

Sammie Parker - He got better as the year went on and most of the key players on the KC offense will be back.

 

Kevin Curtis - He's a good guy to have on your bench. If Holt or Bruce get injured again, he'll put up very good stats, and even if they don't, you can plug him in your lineup if you're in a jam and usually 40 or 50 yards out of him. I don't think the coaching change will impact his value all that much.

 

Also, keep an eye on the Dolphins and see who emerges as the No. 2 behind Chambers. Even if it's Booker, there could be some real upside there.

Edited May 21, 2006 by tomfin2000

[major-tom]

Good thread...two guys that had high expectations last year and were a hot topic in preseason - Nate Burleson with a fresh start in Seattle and Jerry Porter with a new QB and coach. But which one will be a better fantasy draft?

[Big Score 1]

Good thread...two guys that had high expectations last year and were a hot topic in preseason - Nate Burleson with a fresh start in Seattle and Jerry Porter with a new QB and coach.  But which one will be a better fantasy draft?

 

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Not knowing for a certainty what role Burleson will play (#2? or #3?), right now you'd probably want to go with Porter.

 

Now as things progress and if we see Burleson take sole possession of the #2 spot, it's nowhere near as easy a call.

[The Waterboy]

I don't think I understand or I think the term "value-play" is being stretched a bit for these home-cooked articles.

 

When you have a younger player that you think is going to have a better season than years' past, but hasn't really done much - is that technically a "value play"? Or is that a speculative play?

 

Similar to stocks. Value plays vs. Growth plays vs. Speculative stocks.

 

Muhsin Muhammad might be a value play.

 

Chris Chambers might be a growth play.

 

To me, Mike Williams would be a penny-stock, and a very speculative play. He doesn't really have much of a value, and hasn't done squat for anyone to attribute one to him. So how can you determine you are getting good value by drafting him in any round?

 

If the intent is just to name WRs who will be available in the 3-10th round who anyone thinks will have a better 2006-07 than 05-06, this could take quite a bit of time. Breakout WRs, or Rebound WRs, or Diamond-in-the-Rough WRs might be a better way to title these posts.

Edited May 22, 2006 by The Waterboy

[rebdog]

Odds on Chris Henry:

 

25% - continues to climb as Bengals #3 WR and big-play threat

 

25% - suspended by the NFL by mid-season for substance abuse

 

50% - released by the Bengals for conduct detrimental to the team

 

....this guy was my dynasty sleeper pick last year. things looked good for him until about game #13. now?...not so good.

[tomfin2000]

If the intent is just to name WRs who will be available in the 3-10th round who anyone thinks will have a better 2006-07 than 05-06, this could take quite a bit of time.  Breakout WRs, or Rebound WRs, or Diamond-in-the-Rough WRs might be a better way to title these posts.

 

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Good point.

 

Okay, here are some guys who are proven commodities but will probably be drafted later than they should have been due to having some stigma or another attached to them:

 

Hines Ward: He should be one of the first five WRs off the board, but in most drafts, he won't be. In spite of everything he and the Steelers accomplished in 2005, FFL owners still remember his uncharacteristically bad 2004 season and still don't fully trust the Steelers passing game.

 

Javon Walker: Concern over his knee and whether or not he's fully recovered will drop him down the cheat sheets, even if he has a solid preseason. He could be this year's Steve Smith.

 

Keshawn Johnson: Speaking of Smith, how can Keshawn NOT succeed in Carolina? He's not spectacular, but every year he goes in the middle rounds and every year he outperforms half the WRs taken in front of him. Now he's in the best situation he's been in for years.

 

Terry Glenn: Another mid to late round gem, especially if you start 3 WRs. T.O. will draw a lot of attention, but Glenn will get his, especially with Bledsoe at QB.

 

Issac Bruce: Every year it's supposed to be time to stick a fork in him, and every year he produces, especially in relation to where he's drafted.

 

Joe Horn: Good call from another poster. Horn was one of the most consistent WRs in fantasy football until the unmitigated disaster that was the Saints' 2005 season. Most will blame Horn's poor stats on his age. I'll blame it on the unmittigated disaster and laugh my rear end off if I get him in the fourth or fifth round.

 

Marvin Harrison: He no longer has the upside of most of the WRs that will be chosen ahead of him, but he's still more consistent and reliable than just about any other WR out there. If he drops to the third round, he's a steal.

 

Tony Gonzalez: Okay, so he's not a WR, but one bad year after 7 or 8 as the premier TE in Fantasy Football and now Gonzo is on the FFL backburner. If he's available late in the fourth or early in the fifth, take him and have a major advantage over just about everyone else but the Gates owner.

 

Those are just a few right off the top of my head.

[Wizards]

[if the intent is just to name WRs who will be available in the 3-10th round who anyone thinks will have a better 2006-07 than 05-06, this could take quite a bit of time. Breakout WRs, or Rebound WRs, or Diamond-in-the-Rough WRs might be a better way to title these posts.

 

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Okay....now that the editor of this thread has appeared...could he possibly be the sleeper of great value....nah..............HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

[Otis]

I don't think I understand or I think the term "value-play" is being stretched a bit for these home-cooked articles. 

 

When you have a younger player that you think is going to have a better season than years' past, but hasn't really done much - is that technically a "value play"?  Or is that a speculative play? 

 

Similar to stocks.  Value plays vs. Growth plays vs. Speculative stocks.

 

Muhsin Muhammad might be a value play.

 

Chris Chambers might be a growth play.

 

To me, Mike Williams would be a penny-stock, and a very speculative play.  He doesn't really have much of a value, and hasn't done squat for anyone to attribute one to him.  So how can you determine you are getting good value by drafting him in any round?

 

If the intent is just to name WRs who will be available in the 3-10th round who anyone thinks will have a better 2006-07 than 05-06, this could take quite a bit of time.  Breakout WRs, or Rebound WRs, or Diamond-in-the-Rough WRs might be a better way to title these posts.

 

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I disagree. The whole concept of value in fantasy football is getting a guy for less than he ends up being worth (i.e., he puts up better stats than his draft position or trade cost would have suggested).

 

It can be a young guy who will improve, but keep in mind that this isn't the entire story. Coming into every year there are young guys who many people think are going to put up improved numbers in the following season -- however, if that speculative value is already built into their trade price or draft position, you aren't really getting value. Generally you tend to get more value from guys coming off a down season, or young guys who have disappointed, or old guys who people think are on their last legs, etc.

 

It's all about what you pay (in terms of trade value or draft spot) versus what you get at the end of the season.

[Otis]

Regarding the call on Burleson above, I really think he could be the next Peerless Price. A guy who was very solid as a #2 WR but when given the #1 slot absolutely stinks up the joint. That said, he could be a decent #2 in Seattle.

[peepinmofo]

My next selection:

 

Mike Williams (aka "BMW")

 

Come on.  This isn't just a first round talent.  This is a TOP TEN talent.  And just a year ago.

 

I have no problem with a kid getting off to a slow start at the WR position.  It usually takes several years for a receiver to get into a groove and get caught up with NFL game speeds.  I will give even more leeway in this respect to a kid who was forced to miss his final college season.

 

He was a monster in college.  He is big and athletic and can come over the middle.  Last year was a learning experience and he has the potential to bounce back.

 

Also, consider the addition of Mike Martz, a guy who has built offenses in the past that produce 1, 2 or even 3 fantasy-valuable wide recievers.  As a potential #2 in that offense, Williams has upside galore.

 

He also can be had DIRT CHEAP right now.  BUY all the way.

 

Additionally, the Detroit News is already reporting some promising info on BMW:

 

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Wasnt David Terrell a 1st round, top 10 talent too? He might have been later then top 10, but lets just remember...there IS such thing as a 1st rounder WR bust.

 

Edit to add - Im not saying he will be a bust, just reminding it is possible.

Edited May 22, 2006 by peepinmofo

[Otis]

Wasnt David Terrell a 1st round, top 10 talent too? He might have been later then top 10, but lets just remember...there IS such thing as a 1st rounder WR bust.

 

Edit to add - Im not saying he will be a bust, just reminding it is possible.

 

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I don't doubt that it's possible. And if BMW continues to flop for 2-3 more years, I'll agree he is a bust. But it's not time to make that call yet. WRs typically require 2-3 years to adjust to the NFL, and, even though BMW is not yet a bust, he is probably being valued as one now.

 

I'm not going to make any guarantees, but for what you will have to pay for him (i.e., next to nothing) I think he is well worth the shot.

[Otis]

Just wanted to reiterate my thoughts on Darrel Jackson.

 

The catch on Jackson is he has been in the league for 7 years now and still has never broken the 1200 yard mark (he did 1199 in 2004). That history would suggest that he may not have stud potential.

 

That said, I think last year he was ready to make a move upward into the next tier of WRs. If you look at his point totals in the games he played last year, you see that he had monster games when he played. He is not a guy who has a concerning injury history. And now that he is coming off the quiet season, I think his value could be low and there is little buzz. He could be a great value pick here.

[Otis]

Also, to reiterate what I posted earlier, I am becoming higher on Mike Clayton with each passing day. He is the perfect example of what Boldin was last year -- a young player coming off a monster rookie season but gets hurt in year 2. Just like last year, when Boldin's ADP slipped way, way down and people let me have an absolute steal with him in every single draft, Clayton is going unbelieveable low in drafts. We got him as our WR4 in a 12 team draft just last night, and that was after we'd filled our with several solid backs and a QB. I think he will perform a lot closer to a WR2 or even WR1 than a WR4.

 

He could be my ultimate value pick at WR this offseason.

[TecmoBeast]

Derrick Mason - McNair chemistry

Drew Bennett - Volek chemistry

Donte Stallworth - already flashes the big games, just needs more consistency

Laveranues Coles - if one of the 4 QBs can step up and produce, you'll have some value here

[Jackass]

Wasnt David Terrell a 1st round, top 10 talent too? He might have been later then top 10, but lets just remember...there IS such thing as a 1st rounder WR bust.

 

Edit to add - Im not saying he will be a bust, just reminding it is possible.

 

picked #7. some pats fans wanted the pats to take him instead of richard seymour at #6 - looks like the pats made the right call.

[Big Dogs]

Clayton & Williams? I wouldn't mind grabbing either in the late rounds and hoping as I agree each may pan out to be nice value -- but rounds 3-6? Nope. Got other folks to grab.

 

 

 

I'm obviously not suggesting you take BMW in the third. The point is that these are guys who I think will drop well into later rounds. My statements regarding rounds 3-10 are just a general observation that it's not what you do with your first pick that wins fantasy, it's what you do with the last.

 

Three guys I targeted HARD in all my leagues across the board last year were Anquan Boldin, LJ, and Willie Parker. All value plays where I got them, but they were what made the difference.

 

 

 

Based on the My Fantasy League 2006 Draft tracker, Clayton is on average going with the 95th pick, (8th round), and Williams isn't going on average till 214th!!! That's waiver wire fodder in most leagues!!!