Marvin Harrison

[yo mama]

I wont reach for him. But that's not to say I won't draft him.

[Caveman_Nick]

Maybe "dead to me" is a little strong, but I wouldn't be all that interested in drafting him as a first stringer. And he'd be gone by the time I was drafting second stringers.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Harrison's stock is falling a little too far. I was a little down on him at the end of last year, but I wouldn't have expected him to drop all the way to the #30 WR range. Will he be a lock for the top three? Of course not. But I haven't heard anything suggesting he won't play this year, so I think he's a good bet for 1100 yards and 10 TDs.

 

Also, his age is definitely a factor. But remember -- this is the guy who was on pace to challenge most of Jerry Rice's records. Rice was productive until his late 30s.

 

I think people just don't want to be "that guy" who takes Harrison too early.

[Caveman_Nick]

Harrison's stock is falling a little too far. I was a little down on him at the end of last year, but I wouldn't have expected him to drop all the way to the #30 WR range. Will he be a lock for the top three? Of course not. But I haven't heard anything suggesting he won't play this year, so I think he's a good bet for 1100 yards and 10 TDs.

 

Also, his age is definitely a factor. But remember -- this is the guy who was on pace to challenge most of Jerry Rice's records. Rice was productive until his late 30s.

 

I think people just don't want to be "that guy" who takes Harrison too early.

 

Didn't Rice also enjoy those years being essentially injury free, though?

 

It's not Harrison's age alone, it's also that he missed most of last year.

[CaptainHook]

I seem to remember Rice tearing his ACL and coming back just fine.

 

Just sayin' . . .

[rajncajn]

Didn't Rice also enjoy those years being essentially injury free, though?

 

It's not Harrison's age alone, it's also that he missed most of last year.

It's also Anthony Gonzalez

 

I seem to remember Rice tearing his ACL and coming back just fine.

 

Just sayin' . . .

How old was Rice when he did it?

[The Wolf]

It's also Anthony Gonzalez

 

 

How old was Rice when he did it?

 

34...happened in 1997:

 

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stor...g_1c7onthe.html

[Bronco Billy]

I watched what happened to Rod Smith - he was at about the same stage in his career/age as Harrison. The end came quick. I could easily see the same thing happen to Harrison. WRs last longer than most other positions, but they aren't immune to Mother Nature, and IND has to put its best product on the field - especially in their division and in the AFC. That may mean getting Gonzalez more touches and Marvin less.

[CaptainHook]

Didn't Rod break his hip or something? It was something weird . . .

 

I can't imagine sitting out all of training camp . . . arthroscopic surgery usually takes just a few weeks to recover from. If he's not good to go by then, I wouldn't draft him. Once we see him in the pre-season, I think we'll have a better idea where he is physically. The fact the Colts didn't draft a WR until late in the draft, or make a move for one in free agency makes me believe the Colts have full confidence in his recovery. If his knees are healthy, he will be a steal late in the draft.

[Egret]

Gonzalez is a good route runner like Harrison. There's a reason they drafted him. I can see Marvin going the same way that Rod Smith went.

[Bronco Billy]

Didn't Rod break his hip or something? It was something weird . . .

 

Before he got hurt he had gotten to the point where he simply couldn't beat CBs 1-on-1 any more. Now Harrison is more athletic than Smith, no question, but there comes a time where guile & experience just can't outweigh the ravages of age & the wear and tear of a long playing career.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

there comes a time where guile & experience just can't outweigh the ravages of age & the wear and tear of a long playing career.

 

Of course that's true, but that's what this discussion is about. For Rod Smith, after his 12th year, it was "that time" (then he got injured and the fork was inserted). Harrison just finished his 12th year. So, the question is: Is Harrison more likely to finish his career looking like Rice or Rod Smith? Harrison's talent and previous production certainly indicate he's much closer to Rice.

 

Also, I believe Smith was about 37.5 years old entering his 13th year. Harrison will have just turned 36.

 

And, coincidentally, Rice also suffered his ACL tear in his 12th year -- same point in career when Harrison got injured -- and had 82/1157/9 the very next year. He also had two more 1100-plus-yard seasons before he retired.

[rajncajn]

Of course that's true, but that's what this discussion is about. For Rod Smith, after his 12th year, it was "that time" (then he got injured and the fork was inserted). Harrison just finished his 12th year. So, the question is: Is Harrison more likely to finish his career looking like Rice or Rod Smith? Harrison's talent and previous production certainly indicate he's much closer to Rice.

 

Also, I believe Smith was about 37.5 years old entering his 13th year. Harrison will have just turned 36.

 

And, coincidentally, Rice also suffered his ACL tear in his 12th year -- same point in career when Harrison got injured -- and had 82/1157/9 the very next year. He also had two more 1100-plus-yard seasons before he retired.

While Rice proves it can be done, I would still say the odds are against him. It's just a risk most fantasy owners do not want to take on a player this late in his career.

[Bronco Billy]

I find it peculiar that anyone would be using the player (Rice) who is arguably the best player (not WR, but player) ever to have played the game as their standard for comparison.

 

Rice is a clear outlier in the data set, not the norm.

Edited May 16, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[BeeR]

The point is that it's do-able - but yeah, expecting anything Rice-like, even from Harrison, is asking a lot. I think given the lingering injury concerns, age etc, he's probably going a little low but about where he should.

[Bronco Billy]

Other top WRs in NFL history besides Rice, and the ages when their production dropped off significantly (ranked by career receptions):

 

2) Cris Carter 35

3) Tim Brown 35

5) Andre Reed 32

7) Art Monk 34

10) Jimmy Smith quit after productive year at 36

11) Irving Fryar 35

12) Rod Smith 35

15) Steve Largent 33

17t) Henry Ellard 35

17t) Keyshawn Johnson quit after 4 straight mediocre years @ 34

 

Others on the list not mentioned:

 

13) FB Larry Centers

14) TE Tony Gonzalez

16) TE Shannon Sharpe

 

 

Still active (owners of the top 4 may want to take note):

 

4) Harrison 35

6) Isaac Bruce 35

8) Keenan McCardell 33

9) Terrell Owens 34

19) Torry Holt 31

20) Randy Moss 30

 

In short, it is much more rational and reasonable to expect Harrison's production to fall off significantly in the very near future than it is to expect Harrison to have a career like the exception on the list, #1 Jerry Rice (whom BTW has 41% more receptions in his career than #2 Cris Carter on the list - how anyone can use Rice as a predictor for other player's longevity is way beyond my comprehension since his career is so drastically different than any other WR's in the history of the NFL).

Edited May 16, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[CaptainHook]

I find it peculiar that anyone would be using the player (Rice) who is arguably the best player (not WR, but player) ever to have played the game as their standard for comparison.

 

Rice is a clear outlier in the data set, not the norm.

Because Harrison has put up Rice-like numbers in his career? Harrison has also not been been the "norm" in his career.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Through their first 11 seasons...

 

Harrison averaged 93 rec., 1245 yards, 11 TDs. Rice averaged 86 rec., 1375 yards, 13 TDs.

 

Why WOULDN'T we use Rice as a comparison for Harrison? Is there another receiver whose first 11 years were comparable to Harrison's?

[Hitman]

I'm not sure about his health...or even his production for this year...but his "decline" is greatly over-exaggerated IMO, and was 95% due to the injury. From a fantasy standpoint, it's hard to gauge where he should be this year...but again, I'd only base it off of the extent of his knee injury, and not his age. It will be hard to take him early in a draft, that's for sure...with that said healthy, he's still a top 10 WR IMO, no doubt. While Reggie Wayne has done a nice job stepping up to the #1 WR, it was only after Marvin got hurt that he became Peyton's "go to" guy. Yes, it was evident that he would take over soon....but when healthy, he'd look Marvin's way 1st everytime. Again, I dont' know the extent of his knee injury, and it was obviously alot worse than was ever admitted. I just think that if he's able to get back to anywhere near 100%....age is not his problem. He's still got alot left in the tank IMO. It doesn't hurt having arguably the best QB in football throwing to you either. Also, regardless of Harrison's status I'm not sold on Gonzo at all as a consistent fantasty option. You will be disapointed if you think he's going to produce as a quality #2 WR on a regular basis. He has flashes of good games....and a bit more speed than the "slot machine", but he's not a big-time WR. His best opportunities will always come from being left wide open, and underestimated.

Edited May 19, 2008 by Hitman

[Bill Swerski]

I'm not sure about his health...or even his production for this year...but his "decline" is greatly over-exaggerated IMO, and was 95% due to the injury. From a fantasy standpoint, it's hard to gauge where he should be this year...but again, I'd only base it off of the extent of his knee injury, and not his age.

 

I don't agree with this. Marvin lost a noticeable amount of burst between '04 and '06, before the knee injury. I haven't seen him burn a CB since November of 2005 (Ike Taylor).

 

While Reggie Wayne has done a nice job stepping up to the #1 WR, it was only after Marvin got hurt that he became Peyton's "go to" guy. Yes, it was evident that he would take over soon....but when healthy, he'd look Marvin's way 1st everytime.

 

Not really. Peyton routinely ignores Marvin when they play the Broncos (Champ Bailey). Reggie still may technically be a "possession" WR, but he's gotten as many looks as Marvin has for the past couple of seasons now. Some of that is due to the fact that the better corners have historically covered Marvin, and some of it is due to the fact that Marvin is easier to cover than he used to be. Reggie has become somewhat of a poor man's Chris Carter - not the fastest guy in the league, but can do everything else incredibly well.

 

Also, regardless of Harrison's status I'm not sold on Gonzo at all as a consistent fantasty option. You will be disapointed if you think he's going to produce as a quality #2 WR on a regular basis. He has flashes of good games....and a bit more speed than the "slot machine", but he's not a big-time WR. His best opportunities will always come from being left wide open, and underestimated.

 

When Marvin retires or is released, Gonzalez will be a productive fantasy WR. I'm not saying that he'll be a stud or anything, but I don't see why he wouldn't be a decent #2 or #3 fantasy option in '09, considering his supporting cast. He had a pretty decent rookie year (576 yds, 15.6 yds/rec) and, most importantly, he improved dramatically in November and December. He'd be a good middle/late-round pick up in a keeper league this season.

[WaterMan]

Harrison has personal problems and coming off bad injuries at his age, I don't expect much. He won't be in the same paragraph as Randy Moss this coming season.

[CaptainHook]

Harrison has personal problems and coming off bad injuries at his age, I don't expect much. He won't be in the same paragraph as Randy Moss this coming season.

Especially if that paragraph is about wide receivers that have Super Bowl rings.

[WaterMan]

Especially if that paragraph is about wide receivers that have Super Bowl rings.

Or titled, WRs who can't make it in the NFL anymore.

[CaptainHook]

Or titled, WRs who can't make it in the NFL anymore.

we'll see . . .