Luck in Fantasy Football

[McBoog]

i haven't read this whole thread. is this where i complain about how my opponent had to sub in a guy for boldin at the last minute and now i'm losing because james jones had 103 yards and a 74-yard touchdown?

 

 

Yup

[bigbadwolf]

Yup

That is some bad luck.

[yo mama]

I guess if luck wasn't involved I would win every year.

Henry Muto doesn't "win" leagues: he allows others the privilege of losing to him.

[BakoSpanks]

Where can I find a good point based league for next year? I've read through most of the messages in this thread, and share the frustration of being #1 in points scored in a H2H league, yet having no shot of making the playoffs. (Actually, I'm in 5 H2H leagues this year - I'm #1 in points in 3 of them, #2 in points in 1 of them, and #4 in points in another. Yet I'm only assured of making the playoffs in 2 of them!) Sorry, but I think that's lame. I've put started the best collection of players week in and week out, outscored everybody else for the entire season, and inferior teams/owners are in the playoffs? Sorry. There's got to be a better way. I've seen several point based ideas and options in the messages I've read here. Now I just need to know where to find the leagues they are used in. Thanks for your time!

 

Bako : ) SPANKS

[BakoSpanks]

Solution- Add a post-season slot based on breakdown record. In my local H2H league, we added a breakdown slot for the post season very early on. It works great and adds a lot of drama to the end of the season. Most importantly, it ensures that no one gets REALLY unlucky and misses the playoffs with a very good team.

 

So, if you score well every week but you are unlucky with losses and have a bad W-L record, you still have a chance to compete in the post-season. This is probably my favorite feature of this league. Feel free to use it...

 

I've come to think that the "breakdown" method is the way to go for ALL playoff slots. That way you're really playing EVERY team EVERY week. And only the best teams make it to the playoffs, since the larger number of games minimizes the effect of "fluke" wins and losses. It's imporatant to remember that in H2H FF no one changes their line-ups because of their FF opponent. If you've got a good QB against a bad pass D, you're going to play him no matter who or what your FF opponent does. You are trying to score the maximum points every week, regardless of who you face.

 

And on a personal note - My breakdown record in one league in particular is 90-42 (the best in the league), I'm #1 in points scored, and I'm OUT of the playoffs! If that doesn't warrant a re-evaluation of H2H FF, I don't know what does.

[delusions of grandeur]

Where can I find a good point based league for next year? I've read through most of the messages in this thread, and share the frustration of being #1 in points scored in a H2H league, yet having no shot of making the playoffs. (Actually, I'm in 5 H2H leagues this year - I'm #1 in points in 3 of them, #2 in points in 1 of them, and #4 in points in another. Yet I'm only assured of making the playoffs in 2 of them!) Sorry, but I think that's lame. I've put started the best collection of players week in and week out, outscored everybody else for the entire season, and inferior teams/owners are in the playoffs? Sorry. There's got to be a better way. I've seen several point based ideas and options in the messages I've read here. Now I just need to know where to find the leagues they are used in. Thanks for your time!

 

As much as I hate to bump this topic back up, it's getting pretty ridiculous the number of people who don't seem to understand why they might not make the playoffs or top seed with the best points record.

 

outscored everybody else for the entire season

 

Really?? if that was the case that you outscored your opponent every week, then you would be guaranteed a playoff spot.

 

So are your teams the most consistent players, or just the most explosive players? If it's the latter, then I think you already know the answer. This is not to say that you can't win by explosive plays, but if you don't have a few consistent guys who can carry you most weeks, then yes, you are probably going to lose some games.

 

Even though the most explosive and high-scoring team went to the Super Bowl last year (Arizona), they were beat by a consistently dominant Pittsburgh D... Okay, maybe it's a little different in FF, but unless your team is meeting the average every week, then I don't think getting the most points should guarantee you anything except maybe the lowest seed if your team somehow doesn't make the playoffs.

 

Like others said, if you don't like it, then go to a points league, and leave the H2H to us who prefer a game where anyone can win, and nothing is guaranteed. To me, there is nothing better than watching the bottom seed get hot at the right time and steal the title. Just like the real playoffs, you have to get hot at the right times and key matches, or points are irrelevant.

Edited December 3, 2009 by delusions of granduer

[BakoSpanks]

Really?? if that was the case that you outscored your opponent every week, then you would be guaranteed a playoff spot.

 

UNLESS - Your opponents have their best week of the season when they play you. It happened over and over again to me. If I averaged 100 points a week, and they averaged 75 a week, the week they played me, they'd miraculously rack up 105. It happened to me REPEATEDLY. My "breakdown" record (playing every team in the league every week) is 90-42. Short version is this - I'm misisng the playoffs because my LUCK is bad - NOT my team.

 

Even though the most explosive and high-scoring team went to the Super Bowl last year (Arizona), they were beat by a consistently dominant Pittsburgh D... Okay, maybe it's a little different in FF, but unless your team is meeting the average every week, then I don't think getting the most points should guarantee you anything except maybe the lowest seed if your team somehow doesn't make the playoffs.

 

The difference between the NFL & FF is that in FF you have no control or effect on your opponent. You have no control over how many points they score, and therefore it is up to luck to determine who wins between the two of you. HOWEVER, the amount of points YOU score IS effected by you. That's why FF would be better served to reward or punish you based on YOUR performance an ability (such as points per season) rather than your opponents.

 

Like others said, if you don't like it, then go to a points league, and leave the H2H to us who prefer a game where anyone can win, and nothing is guaranteed. To me, there is nothing better than watching the bottom seed get hot at the right time and steal the title. Just like the real playoffs, you have to get hot at the right times and key matches, or points are irrelevant.

 

The problem is that you can make the right moves, and get hot at the right time, and be consistent, and score a lot of points every week, and STILL not make it to the playoffs. You COULD out score 10 of the 12 teams in your league every week and never win a game. Does that mean you're the worst team? Or that you had some really bad luck? You KNOW the answer, and that's the problem.

[Big Country]

It's called tough sh!t. it happens both ways. I've had years where I outscored the league by a wide margin and did not make the playoffs because I had the most points against by an even wider margin, and I've had years where I was in the middle of the pack in scoring, but was first place in record because my points against were very low and ended up winning the league with a team that got very hot at the right time.

 

 

A lot of the fun, as has been noted, is the h2h against a friend in any given week. A lot of that has been lost with the proliferation of anonymous online leagues (ie Yahoo and ESPN, etc.) where there isn't any friendly rivalry, etc.

[detlef]

It's called tough sh!t. it happens both ways. I've had years where I outscored the league by a wide margin and did not make the playoffs because I had the most points against by an even wider margin, and I've had years where I was in the middle of the pack in scoring, but was first place in record because my points against were very low and ended up winning the league with a team that got very hot at the right time.

 

 

A lot of the fun, as has been noted, is the h2h against a friend in any given week. A lot of that has been lost with the proliferation of anonymous online leagues (ie Yahoo and ESPN, etc.) where there isn't any friendly rivalry, etc.

Can we just cut and paste this over and over until the babies stop crying?

[BillyBalata]

It's called tough sh!t. it happens both ways. I've had years where I outscored the league by a wide margin and did not make the playoffs because I had the most points against by an even wider margin, and I've had years where I was in the middle of the pack in scoring, but was first place in record because my points against were very low and ended up winning the league with a team that got very hot at the right time.

 

 

A lot of the fun, as has been noted, is the h2h against a friend in any given week. A lot of that has been lost with the proliferation of anonymous online leagues (ie Yahoo and ESPN, etc.) where there isn't any friendly rivalry, etc.

 

 

This man is very wise.

[yo mama]

Can we just cut and paste this over and over until the babies stop crying?

Could we try that in a few of the Tailgate threads?

[Henry Muto]

The schedule in FF is luck in H2H leagues...Think about the poor teams that have to play me twice during each year compared to the lucky ones that only have to play me once a year.

[buddahj]

The schedule in FF is luck in H2H leagues...Think about the poor teams that have to play me twice during each year compared to the lucky ones that only have to play me once a year.

[BakoSpanks]

Can we just cut and paste this over and over until the babies stop crying?

 

 

Wow. Didn't expect such a backlash. I know I'm new to this board and everything, so let me backup just a little...

 

I'm not some sore loser than can't deal with not making the playoffs. I won my only H2H league last year. I'm in 5 H2H leagues this year, I've clinched a playoff spot in 3 of them, and will probably clinch a 4th in Week 14. I'm very aware of the rivalries, smack-talk, and FUN that makes H2H FF such a blast for all of us.

 

Now that I've got that out of the way, I'd still like to see other options and scenarios in FF leagues that are less dependent on the luck of the schedule. I'd like to see a league in which H2H wins and points scored could be used equally and fairly and determining the playoff picture.

 

For you guys that are cool with H2H the way it is - That's cool! It's all good! I just thought this would be the proper thread to discuss some of the problems or issues that LUCK in FF creates.

 

[montster]

Can we just cut and paste this over and over until the babies stop crying?

 

it's my parity and i'll cry if i want to, cry if i want to.

[Jackass]

 

Wow. Didn't expect such a backlash. I know I'm new to this board and everything, so let me backup just a little...

 

I'm not some sore loser than can't deal with not making the playoffs. I won my only H2H league last year. I'm in 5 H2H leagues this year, I've clinched a playoff spot in 3 of them, and will probably clinch a 4th in Week 14. I'm very aware of the rivalries, smack-talk, and FUN that makes H2H FF such a blast for all of us.

 

Now that I've got that out of the way, I'd still like to see other options and scenarios in FF leagues that are less dependent on the luck of the schedule. I'd like to see a league in which H2H wins and points scored could be used equally and fairly and determining the playoff picture.

 

For you guys that are cool with H2H the way it is - That's cool! It's all good! I just thought this would be the proper thread to discuss some of the problems or issues that LUCK in FF creates.

 

 

Sometimes people feel peer pressure to play the tough guy on these boards. Trying to suggest that there may be a possible alternative idea is criticized as whining.

[Big Country]

 

Wow. Didn't expect such a backlash. I know I'm new to this board and everything, so let me backup just a little...

 

I'm not some sore loser than can't deal with not making the playoffs. I won my only H2H league last year. I'm in 5 H2H leagues this year, I've clinched a playoff spot in 3 of them, and will probably clinch a 4th in Week 14. I'm very aware of the rivalries, smack-talk, and FUN that makes H2H FF such a blast for all of us.

 

Now that I've got that out of the way, I'd still like to see other options and scenarios in FF leagues that are less dependent on the luck of the schedule. I'd like to see a league in which H2H wins and points scored could be used equally and fairly and determining the playoff picture.

 

For you guys that are cool with H2H the way it is - That's cool! It's all good! I just thought this would be the proper thread to discuss some of the problems or issues that LUCK in FF creates.

 

 

 

It's nothing against you. It's against the people in general that complain about a H2H league when they join them knowing full well that there is a luck component. And, again nothing against you in particular, but there have been a larger than usual number of threads this year on this subject.

 

For anyone that does not like it, I along with many others have given multiple suggestions on other ways to have leagues, including but not limited to all-play leagues, total points only leagues, WCOFF style playoffs where spots are determined by a combination of record and total points, victory point standings, best ball league (where best possible lineup is automatically played after the fact), or any combination of those.

 

But, to go in and join a h2h league (which the large majority of FF leagues are currently), where the primary point is you are playing a particular opponent that week where any number of things can happen, including them having their best week ever, you having your worst week ever, etc., plus having the fun of having a good friend to talk smack with in a given week, and then rail against the primary attribute of a h2h league is just asinine.

[Chief Dick]

If I've said it once I've said it a hundred times, Fantasy Football is 95% luck and 5% luck.

[notamomo]

I've come to think that the "breakdown" method is the way to go for ALL playoff slots. That way you're really playing EVERY team EVERY week.

 

EXACTLY. The keeper league I am in uses only breakdown for record. It works great. The H2H league I'm in decided that we like the trash talking and rivalries that H2H allows. So we just added the one breakdown slot to make sure nobody gets really unlucky (like I did in the 1st year of the league).

 

It's imporatant to remember that in H2H FF no one changes their line-ups because of their FF opponent. If you've got a good QB against a bad pass D, you're going to play him no matter who or what your FF opponent does. You are trying to score the maximum points every week, regardless of who you face.

 

CORRECT again. This is the reason that H2H makes very little sense in fantasy. H2H usually means you have a chance to affect your opponent's performance. But in fantasy, that's impossible. (Other than convincing someone to start the wrong players, that is.)

 

And on a personal note - My breakdown record in one league in particular is 90-42 (the best in the league), I'm #1 in points scored, and I'm OUT of the playoffs! If that doesn't warrant a re-evaluation of H2H FF, I don't know what does.

 

Start lobbying hard for the breakdown slot. It'll probably take a few seasons (or until someone else in your league experiences this) before anyone else supports your cause.

 

Good luck to all.