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"Dissecting QB Value In Fantasy Football -- The Zero QB Theorem"

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#1 keggerz

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 07:30 PM

I wanted to have a spot that people could comment, ask questions etc. about it my latest article, which is why I started this thread. Here is the link to the article on the main page:  LINK

I suggest you keep an open mind, because trust me, you'll need to have one with this article.

Edited by keggerz, 17 July 2013 - 05:37 PM.


#2 Henry Muto

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 08:10 PM

Please don't tell me Jake Locker is the key to my draft because that would truly be "The Zero QB Theorem"

Edited by Henry Muto, 15 July 2013 - 08:11 PM.


#3 keggerz

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 08:44 PM

View PostHenry Muto, on 15 July 2013 - 08:10 PM, said:

Please don't tell me Jake Locker is the key to my draft because that would truly be "The Zero QB Theorem"
Nothing at all wrong with the 15.576 PPG that Locker averaged last year.

Edited by keggerz, 15 July 2013 - 08:45 PM.


#4 Henry Muto

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 08:57 PM

View Postkeggerz, on 15 July 2013 - 08:44 PM, said:

Nothing at all wrong with the 15.576 PPG that Locker averaged last year.
Nothing at all I guess if you don't like winning.  Pretty sure I can find a guy off waiver wire who will score more.

#5 keggerz

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 09:06 PM

View PostHenry Muto, on 15 July 2013 - 08:57 PM, said:

Nothing at all I guess if you don't like winning.  Pretty sure I can find a guy off waiver wire who will score more.
Keep an open mind when you read the article...don't think about names...just think about numbers.

fwiw, for one fleeting moment I thought about calling it the "Sanchez Theorem" or the "Gabbert Theorem"

#6 keggerz

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Posted 15 July 2013 - 09:25 PM

View PostHenry Muto, on 15 July 2013 - 08:57 PM, said:

Nothing at all I guess if you don't like winning.  Pretty sure I can find a guy off waiver wire who will score more.
I did some quick digging on locker in SOFA Classic last year...he was owned by the team that had RG3 (who was that teams starter all year)...

Week 1-4 with RG3 that team was 4-0
Week 1-4 if Locker was their starter that team's record would be 4-0
That team dropped him after he got hurt in week 4.
Week 10-13(last week of regular season) that team when 3-0 (Tenn had a bye in week 11)
Had they still had Locker and started him they would have been 2-1

Next I looked at each team that won their playoff game...a total of 5 playoff games...
If Locker was their starter those teams would have still won all 5 of those games.
So in 12 games (1,2,3,4,10,12,13, 14,14, 15,15,16, duplication in week 14 and 15 is due to multiple playoff games) that Locker played in, including the game he got hurt and scored zero points in had he been a starter his record would have been 11-1

EDIT: I just checked and the team that picked up Locker was 1-2 in week's 10, 12 & 13...with Locker he would have still been 1-2. So all told, Locker's record between those two teams plus acting as if he was the starting QB for each team that won their playoff matchup he would have had a 12-3 record.

Edited by keggerz, 15 July 2013 - 10:27 PM.


#7 Grogansghost

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 09:52 AM

View Postkeggerz, on 15 July 2013 - 09:25 PM, said:

I did some quick digging on locker in SOFA Classic last year...he was owned by the team that had RG3 (who was that teams starter all year)...

Week 1-4 with RG3 that team was 4-0
Week 1-4 if Locker was their starter that team's record would be 4-0
That team dropped him after he got hurt in week 4.
Week 10-13(last week of regular season) that team when 3-0 (Tenn had a bye in week 11)
Had they still had Locker and started him they would have been 2-1

Next I looked at each team that won their playoff game...a total of 5 playoff games...
If Locker was their starter those teams would have still won all 5 of those games.
So in 12 games (1,2,3,4,10,12,13, 14,14, 15,15,16, duplication in week 14 and 15 is due to multiple playoff games) that Locker played in, including the game he got hurt and scored zero points in had he been a starter his record would have been 11-1

EDIT: I just checked and the team that picked up Locker was 1-2 in week's 10, 12 & 13...with Locker he would have still been 1-2. So all told, Locker's record between those two teams plus acting as if he was the starting QB for each team that won their playoff matchup he would have had a 12-3 record.


I'm not sure what to take from the fact that Locker does well if we give him a schedule where he was only ever the QB of the league champion, or a first round playoff winner.

Guess I'll have to keep waiting for the article ;)    Can't wait to read it.

#8 chiroacademy

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 10:46 AM

I can't wait to read the article.  I picked Matt Bryant in the 10th round last year and my league laughed at me.  This year I like Romo in the late rounds.

#9 flemingd

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 11:04 AM

All this shows to me is that he won/lost a bunch of games by a big enough margin that one guy (the QB in this case) wasn't enough to make a difference in 6 of the 7 games you compared.  I'm sure you could say the same about a multitude of cases.  I'm interested to see where you're going with this.

#10 Axe Elf

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 11:23 AM

View Postchiroacademy, on 16 July 2013 - 10:46 AM, said:

I can't wait to read the article.  I picked Matt Bryant in the 10th round last year and my league laughed at me.  This year I like Romo in the late rounds.

If you started a klcker at QB (or picked a kicker in the 10th round), I would have laughed at you too.

If you mean Matt Ryan, then I have to laugh at your league for letting him fall to the 10th round.  He was going by the fourth or fifth round of most credible drafts.

Just checked FFC archive data for 2012; Matt Ryan's ADP was 3.10.

Edited by Axe Elf, 16 July 2013 - 11:30 AM.


#11 Big Country

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:03 PM

View PostAxe Elf, on 16 July 2013 - 11:23 AM, said:

If you started a klcker at QB (or picked a kicker in the 10th round), I would have laughed at you too.

If you mean Matt Ryan, then I have to laugh at your league for letting him fall to the 10th round.  He was going by the fourth or fifth round of most credible drafts.

Just checked FFC archive data for 2012; Matt Ryan's ADP was 3.10.

Depends when your draft was. Looking at the articles another site put out on ADP heading into the FFPC live drafts, Ryan was ADPing in the mid to late 6th round. This was based on drafts in late July/early August. By the time late August/early September came around, so many people jumped on his bandwagon that his ADP was mid 3rd round. So, getting him in the 10th was not that much of a stretch if it was an early draft (or smaller league).

#12 Whiskey Pimp

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:09 PM

View Postchiroacademy, on 16 July 2013 - 10:46 AM, said:

I can't wait to read the article.  I picked Matt Bryant in the 10th round last year and my league laughed at me.  This year I like Romo in the late rounds.

View PostAxe Elf, on 16 July 2013 - 11:23 AM, said:

If you started a klcker at QB (or picked a kicker in the 10th round), I would have laughed at you too.

If you mean Matt Ryan, then I have to laugh at your league for letting him fall to the 10th round.  He was going by the fourth or fifth round of most credible drafts.

Just checked FFC archive data for 2012; Matt Ryan's ADP was 3.10.

Since his league laughed at him I assume he meant exactly who he said it was....Matt Bryant.

#13 keggerz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:13 PM

View Postflemingd, on 16 July 2013 - 11:04 AM, said:

All this shows to me is that he won/lost a bunch of games by a big enough margin that one guy (the QB in this case) wasn't enough to make a difference in 6 of the 7 games you compared. I'm sure you could say the same about a multitude of cases.  I'm interested to see where you're going with this.
More than you know...but there is "math" (2 new metrics: mR(miss rate) & pR(positional replaceability) to prove why the theorem pertains to QBs and not other positions.

Edited by keggerz, 16 July 2013 - 12:14 PM.


#14 keggerz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:15 PM

View Postflemingd, on 16 July 2013 - 11:04 AM, said:

All this shows to me is that he won/lost a bunch of games by a big enough margin that one guy (the QB in this case) wasn't enough to make a difference in 6 of the 7 games you compared.  I'm sure you could say the same about a multitude of cases.  I'm interested to see where you're going with this.
This is ABSOLUTELY a HUGE part of it, and more often than not, that's how games are won.

Edited by keggerz, 16 July 2013 - 12:15 PM.


#15 keggerz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:20 PM

View PostGrogansghost, on 16 July 2013 - 09:52 AM, said:

I'm not sure what to take from the fact that Locker does well if we give him a schedule where he was only ever the QB of the league champion, or a first round playoff winner.

Guess I'll have to keep waiting for the article ;) Can't wait to read it.
I didn't cherry pick...he said if you don't want to win with Locker...I went and looked at the Locker team...the only thing I decided to do was to see how Locker would fair on a playoff team...you know, since you can't win with him.

#16 keggerz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 12:22 PM

View Postchiroacademy, on 16 July 2013 - 10:46 AM, said:

I can't wait to read the article.  I picked Matt Bryant in the 10th round last year and my league laughed at me.  This year I like Romo in the late rounds.
It should also help to illustrate for you why taking Bryant that early was a mistake.

#17 flemingd

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:01 PM

View Postkeggerz, on 16 July 2013 - 12:13 PM, said:

More than you know...but there is "math" (2 new metrics: mR(miss rate) & pR(positional replaceability) to prove why the theorem pertains to QBs and not other positions.

Now I get where you are going.  I have been tracking Replacement Delta for my homer for a while now, and we have actually formed most of our rules around this analysis, so from a purely drafting perspective, there's almost no such thing as no positional benefit during the draft.  It's far more about drafting the right player rather than when to draft a certain position.

Now I'm really looking forward to this, interesting to compare methodologies.

Edited by flemingd, 16 July 2013 - 02:12 PM.


#18 chiroacademy

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:41 PM

How funny! I picked Matt Ryan in the 10th round last year not Matt Bryant

We draft in August usually the week before the regular season starts.  About half of our league are complete idiots.  I had a $50 side bet with one guy who mocked me for picking Matt Ryan and having my back up as Freeman.  He wouldn't quit mocking so I challenged him to a side bet.  He picked a defense with his 6th pick and had 3 defenses on his roster. Idiot! I crushed him by 160 points on the season! The other half of the league are tough and seem to know what they are doing.

#19 Axe Elf

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 03:54 PM

I'd say the other half are idiots too, if Ryan fell to the 10th round the last week in August.

#20 Whiskey Pimp

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 04:16 PM

View Postchiroacademy, on 16 July 2013 - 02:41 PM, said:

How funny! I picked Matt Ryan in the 10th round last year not Matt Bryant

I stand corrected.

#21 stethant

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 04:23 PM

View Postkeggerz, on 16 July 2013 - 12:13 PM, said:

More than you know...but there is "math" (2 new metrics: mR(miss rate) & pR(positional replaceability) to prove why the theorem pertains to QBs and not other positions.
OK this I'm going to like.  Looking forward to it.  If you ever stumble across a Grand Unified Theorem of FFL, I'll take that too......

Edited by stethant, 16 July 2013 - 04:23 PM.


#22 keggerz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 04:36 PM

View Postchiroacademy, on 16 July 2013 - 02:41 PM, said:

How funny! I picked Matt Ryan in the 10th round last year not Matt Bryant

We draft in August usually the week before the regular season starts.  About half of our league are complete idiots.  I had a $50 side bet with one guy who mocked me for picking Matt Ryan and having my back up as Freeman.  He wouldn't quit mocking so I challenged him to a side bet.  He picked a defense with his 6th pick and had 3 defenses on his roster. Idiot! I crushed him by 160 points on the season! The other half of the league are tough and seem to know what they are doing.
The round doesn't matter much at all...what number QB off the board was he?

#23 chiroacademy

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 08:14 AM

I went back and looked at last year's draft:

Rd 1: 4 QBs, 4 RBs and 2 WR  I picked Calvin Johnson
Rd 2: 2 QBs, 4 RBs , 3 WR and 1 TE I picked Chris Johnson
Rd 3: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 4 WRs and 1 TE I picked Sproles
Rd 4: 0 QBs, 5 RBS and 5 WRs I picked Brandon Marshall
Rd 5: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs and 2 Defenses I picked Trent Richardson
Rd 6: 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs and 1 Defense I picked A Hernandez
Rd 7: 0 QBs, 0 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs and 1 Defense I picked Maclin
Rd 8: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 2 WRs and  2 Defenses I picked BJGE
Rd 9: 0 QB, 2 RBs, 5 Defenses, 3 Kickers I picked Ridley
Rd 10: 5 Qbs, 0 RBs, 3 WRs 2 Kickers I picked Matt Ryan (12 QBs off the board before Ryan)
Rd 11: 1 QB, 3 RBs, 4 WRs 1 Defenses and 1 Kicker I picked I. Redman
Rd 12: 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 1 WR and 2 Kickers I picked Lance Moore
Rd 13: 0 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 Kicker I picked LaGarrette Blount
Rd 14: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs and 1 Defense I picked Freeman
Rd 15: 2 QBs, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 TE and 2 Defenses I picked Seahawks D
Rd 16: 0 QBs, 4 RBs, 5 WR and 1 Kicker I picked Jason Hanson

Clueless people. A Def. and Kicker run in the 9th rd?  Who knows what the trends will be this year but when I look at the draft, if one person picks position there would be a run on that position.  The owner who came in 3rd had 2 D picks in the first 9 rounds.  I hope they do the same this year.

Edited by chiroacademy, 17 July 2013 - 09:02 AM.


#24 keggerz

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 05:38 PM

Article is now up on the main page: http://www.thehuddle...sy-football.php

#25 darin3

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 05:39 PM

Kickers and defenses shouldn't be taken until the last rounds, regardless of how strong you feel about your position players.  Silly, just silly!  :fool:




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