TimC Posted July 27, 2010 Share Posted July 27, 2010 So for those of us with just a 401k....... Hold / buy a little until mid-August Bail into safe havens for a couple months Rush out and buy as much as possible for a couple months through, say, the end of January Sell the lot and stuff it under the mattress from there through forever Is that it? Nope...place yer head between your legs and hope you ride the wave the same way as the .00001% of the people that control the stock market decide it's gonna go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 27, 2010 Share Posted July 27, 2010 So for those of us with just a 401k....... Hold / buy a little until mid-August Bail into safe havens for a couple months Rush out and buy as much as possible for a couple months through, say, the end of January Sell the lot and stuff it under the mattress from there through forever Is that it? 1) I think they're thinking more like the end of Q1 ... so hold to early / mid March. 2) Juist 'cause I think they're smart doesn't mean they actually are ... nor does it mean they will be correct in this (or any other instance). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 how some wealthy people are currently invested, and their views Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 how some wealthy people are currently invested, and their views near the bottom of the article, there was this Melcher has a significant gold position as a currency bet, which Gallagher said he favors as did some other Tiger 21 members. Gold-related investments were picked by 6 percent of respondents, with 75 percent of investors allocating from 11 percent to 20 percent of their portfolios to gold, the survey said. a few months ago I mentioned how gold/silver would be a strong buy around July/August and both have managed to fall significantly (well, in terms of how much gold and silver can drop in a short period of time anyways) and all the while there is talk of a class action lawsuit on JPM for manipulating the price of silver with ETF's as they've been selling about 100 oz worth of silver for every 1oz that they actually have....I obviously don't know if it's true, but just by watching it on the naked eye, silver might be the most manipulated anything I've ever seen... in the past year Gold has gone up within a range of $300.00/oz while Silver has fluctuated between about $2-$3/oz which would be a 100/1 ratio or greater - this makes no sense as far as history is concerned and I would expect a decent correction for silver.... I have read quite a few more things recently, but I don't have them off hand as I'm on the verge of passing out...but I'll add them later...or not because I'm pretty sure that most of the people reading this right now aside from 3 or 4 have little to no interest in this position...but I'll say this once, if you have a silver/gold ETF and want to cash it out - take physical delivery instead of money, but some here that have mentioned gold/silver (I think it was dmarc or perch) also think we'll be following the "cash is king" mantra which I also happen to disagree with... quite a few of people are starting to ask for physical delivery of their metals which is causing a few inconsistencies as of late...because the idea is that you take cash and be on your merry way with a piece of paper while they keep the precious metal in exchange.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 "Everybody is selling?, then BUY .... everyone is buying?, then SELL" - Al Cervick (Rodney Dangerfield) in Caddyshack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 (edited) im buying physical gold and selling the GLD. Edited July 28, 2010 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 im buying physical gold and selling the GLD. wise decision here.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 "Everybody is selling?, then BUY .... everyone is buying?, then SELL" - Al Cervick (Rodney Dangerfield) in Caddyshack. exactly...this is why I was saying a little while ago to get in on the Euro while it was down even though I don't invest in paper currency/stocks anymore - nor have I followed what has transpired since then... all I knew was that everyone was ditching the Euro, so that must be a great time to buy (if I were into that sort of thing anyways) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polksalet Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 I'm buying dirt and improvements. When we have a SHTF scenario I'll be ready. You are all welcome to drop by but it would serve you well to let me know you are coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 28, 2010 Share Posted July 28, 2010 I'm buying dirt and improvements. When we have a SHTF scenario I'll be ready. You are all welcome to drop by but it would serve you well to let me know you are coming. this is part of my plan...I just hope I don't take too long to get around to it... and yes, it's a very sound plan...but location is everything I'd also like to add that I'm not expecting anything as far as a SHTF scenario....but I would like to prepare for future generations and have something laid out if I have anything to do/say about it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Lots of positive movement and news these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Lots of positive movement and news these days. Unacceptable observation, we only clamor onto bad news round here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Unacceptable observation, we only clamor onto bad news round here. the good news is and was expected...but unfortunately it is only temporary... I want to hear this come mid-October and then we might have something to cheer about... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 the good news is and was expected "I think the market is looking at earnings reports and saying things are not as bad as we thought," said Dave Hinnenkamp, chief executive at KDV Wealth Management. "Yes, the economic recovery won't be at a brisk pace, but companies are still earning money and their balance sheets are in good shape." Is that you, dmarc, or Brentastic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 alright...when people speak negatively about the market - it is long-term...nit just a few weeks to maybe a month, but over the course of 6 months to the end of the year... the market isn't just going to do a free-for-all drop - I'm a super-bear and even I know this... C'MON MAANNNN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 The gold used in the swaps came mainly from investors’ deposit accounts at the European commercial banks. Some investors prefer to deposit their gold in so-called “allocated accounts”, which restrict the custodian banks’ ability to use the gold in their market operations by assigning them specific bullion bars. But other investors prefer cheaper “unallocated accounts”, which give banks access to their bullion for their day-to-day operations. The banks identified in the swaps were HSBC, Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas. First of all I think it’s insane for anyone to have gold within a bank. The entire purpose of gold is to escape the banking system once it becomes so big, complex and fraudulent that there is no place to go but collapse upon its ponzi scheme structure. I smell a rat in this BIS deal. People are not going to be happy when they try to redeem their paper gold. I can’t tell you how many people I know that are selling GLD (HSBC is the custodian!!) and buying physical. Of great significance is also the fact that on every orchestrated comex plunge physical buying accelerates. As an example, the U.S. Mint reported selling only 85,000 coins in the first twenty one days of July but then sold 57,000 in the last seven days of the month. This sort of behavior is what will limit the downside. There are enough smart people with lots of money that see the current system for the fraud that it is and are getting out while physical gold is still available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 someone recently appeared on the Max Keiser Report talking about the EU pondering a "gold standard"....and while gold isn't in a bubble yet, I think that the talk of gold has been increasing so much that it's coming... all we need is for Oprah and a couple of those morning shows like the View and an 'expert" on CNBC to come on and talk about how much they love having their gold etc etc...but they always spout off about the ETF and not physical... gold or silver ETF's are a joke imo, but others can disagree and I won't argue it...but I think the ETF's in this instance are where the manipulation is at... and here's a great video of what's going on in Indonesia, the largest muslim community....they seem to be quite ahead of the curve over there as far as money goes.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 We're at a crucial point for the short term, imo. You know my long-term views but tomorrow should indicate where we're headed for September. If the markets are blood red tomorrow then we'll be at the July lows (9614 dow, 1011 s&p) soon. If we bounce, we may see more sideways trading for another month, possibly topping the Aug 9 highs (non-confirmed by s&p) before heading down thru the july lows. If, like I suspect, we are deep red tomorrow and hence at the July lows soon, then we should be in the range of 8k dow, 900 s&p easily by October and even further lower by year end. I still think the Mar 09 lows are a reasonable target for the end of year. This is a bear market folks, one that will last several years. The market will be defined by large drops (may/june) followed by large 'sucker' rallies (july/august) - this is going to be the pattern for the next couple of years while the market squeezes every last penny from every last sucker it can. That's how it works and that's why the rallies must be so convincing. Eventually, there will be no more suckers to bleed and the market will just free fall to the bottom. Anyways, that's how I see it. Regardless of my short-term outlook, this fall is going to be a doozy and don't be surprised to see the Mar 09 lows by year end. Best of luck this fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 We're at a crucial point for the short term, imo. You know my long-term views but tomorrow should indicate where we're headed for September. If the markets are blood red tomorrow then we'll be at the July lows (9614 dow, 1011 s&p) soon. If we bounce, we may see more sideways trading for another month, possibly topping the Aug 9 highs (non-confirmed by s&p) before heading down thru the july lows. If, like I suspect, we are deep red tomorrow and hence at the July lows soon, then we should be in the range of 8k dow, 900 s&p easily by October and even further lower by year end. I still think the Mar 09 lows are a reasonable target for the end of year. This is a bear market folks, one that will last several years. The market will be defined by large drops (may/june) followed by large 'sucker' rallies (july/august) - this is going to be the pattern for the next couple of years while the market squeezes every last penny from every last sucker it can. That's how it works and that's why the rallies must be so convincing. Eventually, there will be no more suckers to bleed and the market will just free fall to the bottom. Anyways, that's how I see it. Regardless of my short-term outlook, this fall is going to be a doozy and don't be surprised to see the Mar 09 lows by year end. Best of luck this fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 That's a tasty wave, dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 The market will be defined by large drops (may/june) followed by large 'sucker' rallies (july/august) - this is going to be the pattern for the next couple of years while the market squeezes every last penny from every last sucker it can. That's how it works and that's why the rallies must be so convincing. Eventually, there will be no more suckers to bleed and the market will just free fall to the bottom. Care to explain how this piece of analysis fits in with the Elliot Wave Hypothesis? (For those who don't want to wait for your reply, the answer is: it doesn't.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Care to explain how this piece of analysis fits in with the Elliot Wave Hypothesis? (For those who don't want to wait for your reply, the answer is: it doesn't.) When the market moves with the trend it does so in 5 waves - 3 in the direction of the trend and 2 counter-trend moves. And in a bear market, volatility increases which is why the VIX will reach record highs at times during this bear market. Economists cannot forecast and that's why you have been and will continue to be behind the curve. It's also why you fail to post anything adding to the discussion and only attempt to point out flaws in my posts. The topping process of the entire market takes time which is why my posts pre market top (April 26) made you think I was delusional. I am not delusional and there is validity to what I have been forecasting and the EWT. At this point no matter what happens you won't see it and I really don't care. But then again, you think the Federal Reserve is a neccessity in our economy, so what do you know? Open your eyes, we'll be at the Mar 09 lows in no time and you can say you heard it from me first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 (edited) When the market moves with the trend it does so in 5 waves - 3 in the direction of the trend and 2 counter-trend moves. And in a bear market, volatility increases which is why the VIX will reach record highs at times during this bear market. Yes, we get that. But how in the world does that have anything to do with the powers-that-be manipulating the market so that they can take the suckers for all of their money? Economists cannot forecast and that's why you have been and will continue to be behind the curve. It's also why you fail to post anything adding to the discussion and only attempt to point out flaws in my posts.You are definitely correct when you say that economists cannot forecast the market. I have been very upfront about the fact that I don't think I can accurately forecast what the market is going to do. I point out the flaws in your posts to try to convince you that you don't know how to forecast the market either. (And I think it is pretty clear that the evidence backs me up here.) I'd say it's much better to be a person who can admit that he can't do something than a fool who thinks he can do something when he really can't. Edited August 24, 2010 by wiegie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big F'n Dave Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 (edited) It's like the innernets equivalent of a slap fight up in here. Edited August 24, 2010 by Big F'n Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Yes, we get that. But how in the world does that have anything to do with the powers-that-be manipulating the market so that they can take the suckers for all of their money?You are definitely correct when you say that economists cannot forecast the market. I have been very upfront about the fact that I don't think I can accurately forecast what the market is going to do. I point out the flaws in your posts to try to convince you that you don't know how to forecast the market either. (And I think it is pretty clear that the evidence backs me up here.) I'd say it's much better to be a person who can admit that he can't do something than a fool who thinks he can do something when he really can't. Wiegie, the market is down nearly 11% from the April highs. At it's lows in July, the market was down 14.5%. On top of all that, my initial forecast was dow 5k by year-end and it's not year-end yet - so how am I wrong? I have retracted my initial forecast and stated multiple times that dow 5k by year end probably won't happen but it certainly will soon enough. And by the end of this bear market, we will be at dow levels that nobody can fathom right now. So, my forecast is right on track, deflationary depression, market sinking - it's all happening and I was talking about it before anybody was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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