Larry Johnson Bust

[cliaz]

My take on this years big fantasy bust:

 

1. Larry Johnson, RB K.C.

Johnson had a monster year only starting in nine games he managed to rack up 1351 yards rushing 16 rushing touchdowns and totaled for the year (2005) an impressive 1750 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns. With Herm Edwards, who loves to pound the ball, it seems as if Larry Johnson is on track to have “the” fantasy football season that all owners dream of from their first over all pick.

 

But there is cause for concern:

 

Offensive Line issues:

 

1. Tony Richardson will not be there to block for him.

2. Left Tackle Willie Roaf has retired further taking away from the line.

3. Kyle Turley just looked terrible during preseason play and the backups are not much more promising.

 

Coaching Change:

 

1. New Head Coach Herm Edwards – granted he loves to run the ball but a new coach means new system no matter how small the change is it could affect the O-line a lot.

2. New O.C. Mike Solari – even though he was the offensive line coach for 8 years there will be small changes to the line again could affect how the O-line reacts and blocks (though very doubtful).

3. Al Saunders is gone and this will be one of the more significant factors in the diminished value of LJ.

 

Assorted Reasons:

 

1. LJ has never played in a full 16 game season therefore is not proven that he can make it a full season with the work load that he is presumed to receive.

2. During the 9 starts he had he rushed against the follow:

 

Chargers - #1 rushing yard Defense

Denver - #2 rushing yard Defense

New England - #8 rushing yard Defense

 

Giants - #12 rushing yard Defense

Dallas - #15 rushing yard Defense

Bengals - #20 vs. rushing yard Defense

Oakland - #25 rushing yard Defense

Buffalo - #31 rushing yard Defense

Houston - #32 rushing yard Defense

 

During his 9 starts where he had 100 yards or more he only faced a top 10 defense against the rush three times (but when he face those three defenses he managed 390 yards and 5 total touchdowns.)

 

This can be read either way but it suggests (to me) that his stats were a tad inflated because of this.

 

With games against – Pittsburgh, Denver twice, Chargers twice, Dolphins, Ravens (yes even the ravens) and Jacksonville expect lowered rushing yardage and touchdown count.

 

My summary: I would suggest that if you have the first or second pick in your redraft league this year that you go to Tomlinson / Alexander in that ordered. It’s hard to find a player that can fill the #3 over all role but Tiki Barber could do it nicely. Me calling Larry Johnson a bust does not mean he fill flop but more over that the expectations of 2000+ yards and 20+ touchdowns is a bit over the top.

 

Expect a year more along the lines of Clinton Portis from last year 1500 yards and 11 – 13 touchdowns.

 

Do not fall into the hype of last year’s Chiefs they are not the same team, offense, offensive line they were before. Expect slower results from their running game.

 

Again this is all in MHO.

 

Cheers

[Primetime9287]

I agree with everything you said except about him not being able to carry the load. He had over 300 carries last year, telling me that he can carry the load. On the flip side to that, people that think he is gonna have this MONSTER SEASON because he had all those yards and tds in 9 STARTS, need to realize that he only hade about 30 carries less than Alexander. He isn't immortal. Herm Edwards is not gonna run him 500 times. Good post Cliaz. Alexander is def #1.

[thecerwin]

Damnit Cliaz, I hate to finally concede my opinion but you might be right. I haven't been impressed with LJ so far this pre-season, and I know I shouldn't put too much stock into the pre-season but his line does not look as productive as we're used to. I agree that expecting portis-like numbers is more realistic given the new factors of his line. If I had a first pick of the draft and my draft were starting tomorrow I don't think I would take LJ, I would take LT. Luckily I haven't had to deal with a first overall pick this year. This year I'd prefer a #4-#8 overall pick in drafts.

 

It is still too early for me to bring out the white flag and admit I was wrong and you were right... but the picture is clearing up a bit.

[samurai30]

I agree with everything you said except about him not being able to carry the load. He had over 300 carries last year, telling me that he can carry the load. On the flip side to that, people that think he is gonna have this MONSTER SEASON because he had all those yards and tds in 9 STARTS, need to realize that he only hade about 30 carries less than Alexander. He isn't immortal. Herm Edwards is not gonna run him 500 times. Good post Cliaz. Alexander is def #1.

 

 

 

People have seem to forgotten SA lost his probowl OL in hutch...thats pretty huge too....he was better then willie roaf actually. With Djax out....his knee won't be 100%...now jeremy stevens out.....they really don't have any wrs that scare you. Luckily...SA is playing in a patsy division. I think you can't go wrong with either one.

[DexterDew]

thanks for the breakdown, Cliaz! this is the kind of discourse that makes this BB so great!

 

i have some concerns over LJ, but in all honesty, i have questions about every RB this year, which makes it paramount to pick a solid RB1. Before the Portis injury, I had LJ as #4 for many of the reasons you wrote about. I think the Roaf thing and the fact he hasn't done it for 16 games being the two biggest reasons. I remember when Roaf was out last year, they OFF did struggle and had to keep Gonzales in to protect Green.

 

i can't imagine that the OFF philosophy will change much this year, and the DEF may be a notch better (which i place an importance on: RBs on teams with good DEF, respectable QB, and a chance to win more than lose), but there are so many question marks on the OFF, the biggest being Roaf and age of skilled players, that he is now number 3 on my RB list. The reason he is number three is that he is a true three-down back with good receiving skills and there is no threat to lose his starting job or RBBC... and in this draft, those facts are HUGE!

[YoungBob]

I know I shouldn't put too much stock into the pre-season but...

Why is it so many people say they know they shouldn't put too much stock into the pre-season, but then they go ahead and do it anyway?

[irish]

LJ will be a monster end of story. Take him #1 and don't look back!!

[Balzac]

Why is it so many people say they know they shouldn't put too much stock into the pre-season, but then they go ahead and do it anyway?

 

 

Bingo. I just had the #1 pick in my main money league (10 minutes ago) and I took LJ with confidence. Alexander's line ain't the same as last year's either and he's starting to have some serious wear on those wheels. I considered LT, but his inconsistency (especially w/r/t nagging injuries) seems to be growing each year.

 

The KC line should still be very solid (but clearly not the same) w/o Roaf and it's not like Herm is a coach that doesn't know how to run the ball - look what he did with CuMart in NY. I'm not saying LJ is a lock to be the #1 player this year, but I think he has a better shot than anyone else and should at least end up on the top 5.

[DexterDew]

not to drift this thread, but samurai30 has brought up the questions about Alexander that should be addressed:

 

the loss of Hutch is huge! and with DJax and Stevens both dinged, the later being out for six weeks, Alexander may face more defenders crowding the line in the first weeks of the season.

 

what concerns me most about Alexander is the number of carries last year, his age, and his new contract. if he is motivated to get back to the Super Bowl, then none of the above matters, but we will have to wait and see... and he is not a great receiver (takes himself out quite a bit, too)

 

what i like about Alexander is that he is a proven commodity, in the same system, with a solid QB, a very good DEF and MOST IMPORTANTLY, and easy schedule (especially during the FF playoffs). All teams want to run the ball when they are ahead to move the chains and keep the clock moving, i see SEA doing that more than KC this year.

 

JMHO

[thecerwin]

People have seem to forgotten SA lost his probowl OL in hutch...thats pretty huge too....he was better then willie roaf actually.

 

Hutch is not better than Roaf. Roaf's an 11x pro bowler at the tackle position. Hutch's success is not to be undermined but he had help while working alongside Big Walter Jones.

[thecerwin]

Why is it so many people say they know they shouldn't put too much stock into the pre-season, but then they go ahead and do it anyway?

 

I know, I have been putting more stock into the preseason when my players do well and less stock in my league-mates players when they don't do well. It's not the best approach, but it serves MY purposes well.

[theeohiostate]

LJ will be a monster end of story. Take him #1 and don't look back!!

 

 

 

It's as simple as this and i agree.

 

 

LJ and it won't even be close.

[Chavez]

Bingo. I just had the #1 pick in my main money league (10 minutes ago) and I took LJ with confidence. Alexander's line ain't the same as last year's either and he's starting to have some serious wear on those wheels. I considered LT, but his inconsistency (especially w/r/t nagging injuries) seems to be growing each year.

 

The thing with the consensus top 3 of LJ, SA, and LT is they all have some question marks; generally, when it comes down to it, I will ALWAYS err on the side of youth when it comes to ff - bottom line is that LJ simply has less wear on his tires than SA and LT - especially once you factor in that he only had one season in college where he shouldered the load - where LT and SA have been getting beat up with 300+ touches every year (8 of the past 9 for SA, 6 straight for LT - though LT has been closer to 400 touches per year since he got in the NFL), LJ has only topped 300 touches twice since 99. And both times he did so he was a MONSTER.

 

True, LJ's line is downgraded somewhat with the retirement of Roaf; but then again, so is SA's with the departure of Hutch and LT faces a slightly tougher road as well until Rivers proves he can take the load off.

 

They all have minor warts; but like I said before, I'll take the chance with the younger, less beat-up player.

[CD6405]

Why is it so many people say they know they shouldn't put too much stock into the pre-season, but then they go ahead and do it anyway?

 

 

 

I know I shouldn't put too much stock into the preseason but....with the Oakland Raiders 2-0 they are going to the Super Bowl!

[Chavez]

It's as simple as this and i agree.

LJ and it won't even be close.

 

I don't know about that, but take LJ's '05 production, project it to 16 games, and then chop 33% off of it - and you end up with 1600 rushing yds and 15 tds.

 

A 50% cut is about 1100 rushing yds and 12 tds.

 

LJ can drop off a significant amount and still be a VERY productive back. I would EASILY drop a c-note that he will do 1100-12 on the ground, not to mention whatever gravy you get from him catching the ball.

[Primetime9287]

Alexander plays in the NFC West (SF, Ari & STL 6 total times), averages 19.6 TDs per year since his rookie season, just turned 29, and plays SF and Arizona in the playoffs. His knocks are the loss of Hutch, wear & tear at 29?, and the BS Madden Curse. I would say Alexander is the safest pick in this years draft and he will get his 1500+ yards and 15+ tds like he does every year.

Edited August 20, 2006 by Primetime9287

[The Holy Roller]

The LJ owner in one of my keeper leagues must be frinking the CliazKoolaid because he is trying to trade LJ before our draft next Sunday. Claimed he wanted to try a different direction this year.

 

I'm happy with any of the top 3.

[cliaz]

The LJ owner in one of my keeper leagues must be frinking the CliazKoolaid because he is trying to trade LJ before our draft next Sunday. Claimed he wanted to try a different direction this year.

 

I'm happy with any of the top 3.

 

 

 

A wise man indeed.

[seabronc]

My take on this years big fantasy bust:

 

2. During the 9 starts he had he rushed against the follow:

 

Chargers - #1 rushing yard Defense

Denver - #2 rushing yard Defense

New England - #8 rushing yard Defense

 

Giants - #12 rushing yard Defense

Dallas - #15 rushing yard Defense

Bengals - #20 vs. rushing yard Defense

Oakland - #25 rushing yard Defense

Buffalo - #31 rushing yard Defense

Houston - #32 rushing yard Defense

 

During his 9 starts where he had 100 yards or more he only faced a top 10 defense against the rush three times (but when he face those three defenses he managed 390 yards and 5 total touchdowns.)

 

This can be read either way but it suggests (to me) that his stats were a tad inflated because of this.

 

 

 

This part of the argument seems pretty weak. If you look at the average...In 9 games, a player should face a top 10 defense three times (10 teams/32 is about 1/3... 3 games out of 9=1/3. It seems like he faced a pretty normal schedule to me. Where is the inflation?

 

Granted, he might face a tougher schedule this year------ but let's not say he played a weak schedule last year.

[Avernus]

I li2 as the #1 overall back...

 

the next 2 spots are between LJ and SA...and I am starting to wonder who is the better option....

 

my local just started allowing the trading of draft picks...and we are starting a keeper as well...

 

I hope I get a top 3 pick and trade down big time to some sucker...

 

I am getting ready for a new #1 in fantasy this year...

 

but I have no clue who it will be...

[Sgt. Ryan]

Its Preseason, if LJ doesnt have a 100 yard game or TD by week 3, then Ill worry, but I simply dont see that the case. Id take, and I have taken LJ at #1, and I aitn looking back. Could SA or LT have a better year, sure its possible, but I built my franchises around LJ, and Im stocked going into this fantasy season.

Edited August 20, 2006 by Sgt. Ryan

[Avernus]

Preseason, if LJ doesnt have a 100 yard game or TD by week 3, then Ill worry, but I simply dont see that the case. Id take, and I have taken LJ at #1, and I aitn looking back. Could SA or LT have a better year, sure its possible, but I built my franchises around LJ, and Im stocked going into this fantasy season.

 

 

LJ is a beast...but if his OL isn't near what it was last year...he won't be near the same back...

 

I say he gets 1300 yds and 10 TD's

[Ground Chuck]

My take on this years big fantasy bust:

 

1. Larry Johnson, RB K.C.

Johnson had a monster year only starting in nine games he managed to rack up 1351 yards rushing 16 rushing touchdowns and totaled for the year (2005) an impressive 1750 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns. With Herm Edwards, who loves to pound the ball, it seems as if Larry Johnson is on track to have “the” fantasy football season that all owners dream of from their first over all pick.

 

But there is cause for concern:

 

Offensive Line issues:

 

1. Tony Richardson will not be there to block for him.

2. Left Tackle Willie Roaf has retired further taking away from the line.

3. Kyle Turley just looked terrible during preseason play and the backups are not much more promising.

 

Coaching Change:

 

1. New Head Coach Herm Edwards – granted he loves to run the ball but a new coach means new system no matter how small the change is it could affect the O-line a lot.

2. New O.C. Mike Solari – even though he was the offensive line coach for 8 years there will be small changes to the line again could affect how the O-line reacts and blocks (though very doubtful).

3. Al Saunders is gone and this will be one of the more significant factors in the diminished value of LJ.

 

Assorted Reasons:

 

1. LJ has never played in a full 16 game season therefore is not proven that he can make it a full season with the work load that he is presumed to receive.

2. During the 9 starts he had he rushed against the follow:

 

Chargers - #1 rushing yard Defense

Denver - #2 rushing yard Defense

New England - #8 rushing yard Defense

 

Giants - #12 rushing yard Defense

Dallas - #15 rushing yard Defense

Bengals - #20 vs. rushing yard Defense

Oakland - #25 rushing yard Defense

Buffalo - #31 rushing yard Defense

Houston - #32 rushing yard Defense

 

During his 9 starts where he had 100 yards or more he only faced a top 10 defense against the rush three times (but when he face those three defenses he managed 390 yards and 5 total touchdowns.)

 

This can be read either way but it suggests (to me) that his stats were a tad inflated because of this.

 

With games against – Pittsburgh, Denver twice, Chargers twice, Dolphins, Ravens (yes even the ravens) and Jacksonville expect lowered rushing yardage and touchdown count.

 

My summary: I would suggest that if you have the first or second pick in your redraft league this year that you go to Tomlinson / Alexander in that ordered. It’s hard to find a player that can fill the #3 over all role but Tiki Barber could do it nicely. Me calling Larry Johnson a bust does not mean he fill flop but more over that the expectations of 2000+ yards and 20+ touchdowns is a bit over the top.

 

Expect a year more along the lines of Clinton Portis from last year 1500 yards and 11 – 13 touchdowns.

 

Do not fall into the hype of last year’s Chiefs they are not the same team, offense, offensive line they were before. Expect slower results from their running game.

 

Again this is all in MHO.

 

Cheers

 

Your not the only one who feels this way. It has been stated by myself and others earlier. Great post. I'll take it one step further. With the rif-raft this team has at WR, and the beating that Trent Green will take, teams will stack the box like never before against KC. I think it will be REAL tough sledding in KC this year.

[Chavez]

LJ is a beast...but if his OL isn't near what it was last year...he won't be near the same back...

 

I say he gets 1300 yds and 10 TD's

Just took a quick look - two new OTs and both of his OGs are injured.

 

As far as the "trash" at WR - it's not any different than it has been for the past 4-5 years in KC - Kennison and a stiff. At least Parker has some upside.

[Avernus]

Just took a quick look - two new OTs and both of his OGs are injured.

 

As far as the "trash" at WR - it's not any different than it has been for the past 4-5 years in KC - Kennison and a stiff. At least Parker has some upside.

 

in a weird way, I think this will benefit Gonzo more than anyone...