T-Scorp Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Posting for easy find at end of season! Done deal! T-Scorp wins if...Caveman wins if not Culpepper is top 5 QB in PPG (minimum 10 games played) using perfect huddle scoring system. .05 points per yard 6 points for each TD scored -1 point for each interception Loser carries sigline throughout NFL playoffs (to end Monday after Conference Championship Games-to allow for Superbowl sigline bets) Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 A bold move by me, to be sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 A bold move by me, to be sure 847564[/snapback] Yer gonna lose. C Pep will easily be top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 A bold move by me, to be sure 847564[/snapback] Yer gonna win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Yer gonna win. 847647[/snapback] and i thought you were smart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Yer gonna win. 847647[/snapback] Smoke 'em if you got 'em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneymakers Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Culpepper has the potential to be a big bust this year. no real running game this year and no moss. bunch of medicore recievers. the 6 points for the td takes away the advantage for the rushing tds. I would side with the Culpepper is not a top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Culpepper has the potential to be a big bust this year. no real running game this year and no moss. bunch of medicore recievers. the 6 points for the td takes away the advantage for the rushing tds. I would side with the Culpepper is not a top 5. 847705[/snapback] No real running game? Huh? Bennett's healthy for the first time leading into a season. Moore proved he is a borderline stud when given the featured role. Williams is a competent short-yardage guy. What's not to like here? No Moss? OK so C-Pepp's numbers dipped when Moss was out... for the INITIAL game Moss was out. The following games, C-Pepp locked on with Burleson, Wiggins, and ran a bit more. The continuance of C-Pepp to Burleson will be even more pronounced this season. The addition of a speedy Williamson will also help. There is still an advantage for C-Pepp's rushing TDs because he's the only QB that gets them with any regularity. He'll throw just as many TDs as any other QB (save Manning and perhaps 1-2 others), but it's his ability to RUSH for TDs that makes him special. He will be top 5. Probably top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 No real running game? Huh? Bennett's healthy for the first time leading into a season. Moore proved he is a borderline stud when given the featured role. Williams is a competent short-yardage guy. What's not to like here? No Moss? OK so C-Pepp's numbers dipped when Moss was out... for the INITIAL game Moss was out. The following games, C-Pepp locked on with Burleson, Wiggins, and ran a bit more. The continuance of C-Pepp to Burleson will be even more pronounced this season. The addition of a speedy Williamson will also help. There is still an advantage for C-Pepp's rushing TDs because he's the only QB that gets them with any regularity. He'll throw just as many TDs as any other QB (save Manning and perhaps 1-2 others), but it's his ability to RUSH for TDs that makes him special. He will be top 5. Probably top 3. 847729[/snapback] shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh let them think he is a 4 or 5th rounder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneymakers Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Naw some sucker will take him with his #1 pick and when he gets hurt his team will be done for the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1stimer Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 .05 points per yard 847548[/snapback] Shoulda gone for .10 points per yard on rushing T ... woulda helped you a little more anyway ... not much but a little Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Naw some sucker will take him with his #1 pick and when he gets hurthis team will be done for the year. 847762[/snapback] Did you go Back to the Future? I just love it when people attempt to predict injuries... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexgaddis Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Culpepper has the potential to be a big bust this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Did you go Back to the Future? I just love it when people attempt to predict injuries... 847790[/snapback] MM is a blind-ass Lions and Cowboys fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 (edited) Culpepper should easily be in the top 10 in 2005 but in today's NFL that's nothing too special, fantasy-wise anyways. This bet is not as cut and dried as everyone is making the bizarro allegiance between moneymakers and me out to be. What do we know about the Vikes for next year as of now? A few things like they made significant offseason moves to improve their defense. Michael Bennett is supposedly healthy. Randy Moss is gone. A few general thoughts first. The 3 changes above represent what I believe will be a shift in what we have seen in the Vikings offensive philosophy for Culpepper's entire 5 year career (I'm throwing out his rookie year since his passing stats were 0 att; 0 comp; 0 yards; 0 TDs with 3 carries for 6 yards and one fumble). The Vikings are a team in transition. The Vikings are 39-41 in the regular season since Culpepper was named the starter 73 of the 80 games in this period from 2000 through the end of last year. If your defense is any good and you can run the ball, you usually don't throw the ball 478 times a season (Culpepper's career average for attempts/season). Even with a marginal defense, Manning threw the ball 52 time less than Culpepper did last year. Culpepper was 2 attempted passes away last year from throwing more passes than in any season in his career. He attempted 70 more passes last year than his career attempts/season average. No matter how great his stats, he's not a winning QB. Plus, I think he'd like to play a long time. To Daunte's credit he's smarter than the injury waiting to happen, Ron Mexico. Sure he’s hugh but as far as getting beat up is concerned, probably best to stick with the old saying it is better to be the hitter than the hitee. It is important to note two important things about Culpepper’s stats. First, he is not the same mobile QB that he was in 2000 when he ran the ball 106 times for 609 yards and 10 TDs. In the two seasons since he has only rushed for 6 TDs and last year, which just happens to be easily the best statistical season of his career, his yards per carry dipped below 5.0 for the first time and he only ran for 2 Tds. Josh McCown ran for the same amount of TDs last year in 2 less starts. The 406 yards rushing last year was neat but at .05 points a yard in this bet he’s only going to get you 17.15 more points than David Carr did in 2004 on the ground. Second, Culpepper is coming off of a career year. In 2004 he had his highest passer rating ever at 110.9, 12.9 points higher than his next best of 98 his rookie season. He had the most completion and second most attempts (by 1 lousy attempt) of his career. He had 780 more yards and 6 more passing Tds than the second best season he’s ever had, his rookie season. I almost never trust a player with 5 or more years in the NFL coming off of a career year. Moss averages of 82 catches, 1,306 yards and 12.8571428571 TDs a season. It bears repeating. 82 catches, 1,306 yards ans 12.9 TDs a season. No one person is going to make that $hit up. So you are left with a new approach to what the Vikes hope will be wining football. A good run game, a good defense and an offense that can, if forced, play vertical football as well. Due to injury Randy Moss is coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro. In 2004 he had 539 fewer yards receiving and 33 catches less than his career averages and his 59 yards/game receiving was down 24.9 yards from his career yards a game average. Despite the bad year he still had 13 Tds, .15 above his career average. In Culpepper’s best season as a pro (2004), Moss still accounted for 16% of Culpepper’s passing yards, 17% of Culpepper’s attempts and 33.3% of Culpepper’s passing Tds. For their 5 years together Moss was on the receiving end of 48% of Culpepper’s Tds and accounted for 34.49% of Culpepper’s passing yards. Out goes the HoFer and in comes 2 year WR Nate Burleson. In 2004 Burleson came on strong. His career averages are 48.5 receptions, 730.5 yards and 5.5 TD a season. In order to get his two years average that high he had to more than double his receptions and yards and quadruple his Tds from 2003 to 2004. Last year was a very good season for him but 1 season does not make a career and he will no longer have the protection of Randy Moss and his stats. He will now have to be the #1 WR on the team. Is Burleson ready to step up to the #1 WR role? Even if he is, he will need some help to make up for the loss of Moss. The question is does Burleson have the necessary help to not just match last year’s stats but to better them Unless Tice has completely gone berserk, Kelly Campbell and Travis Taylor will be battling for the #4 spot. Neither inspires confidence in me. In his 3rd season with Culpepper having his best year as a pro, Campbell regressed. He averaged 6.5 yards a catch less than he did in 2002 as a rookie and scored only once. For those who have met me, remember Campbell is ½ an inch shorter than I am and doesn’t even have 10 pounds on me. Taylor has been nothing but a turd for his entire career. He has 15 career Tds. In 5 years he scored 2 more total Tds than Moss did last year. Az can keep up with me in a single’s bar better than that. In come Marcus Robinson and Troy Williamson. In 1999 with the Bears Robinson had 84 catches for 1400 yards and 9 TD. He has been nowhere close since. Robinson’s career stats look like this: 265 catches for 3803 yards and 34 Tds with an average of 14.4 yards a catch. That was his lone season with more than 1,000 yards and 8 Tds. Take out the 1999 season and one lone game on November 23, 2003 and his career stats look like this: 134 catches for 1615 yards and 11 Tds. He was pretty darn good last year with 47 catches for 657 yards and 8 Tds. Well above his career averages. You can consider his 2004 season proof of his mad skills if you want but I’ll say he was nothing more than in the right place at the right time. Willaimson is listed at 6' 1" and 201 pounds. He’s young, has better hands than people thought (thanks to his combine workout) and is lightning fast. He’s also only played two years of college ball where he amassed a whopping 48 catches for 919 yards and 6 Tds. He averaged 19.1 yards a game for the 23 he played. No wonder I thought he was a human hilight reel, you can darn near fit every one of his receptions into one. Potential is a wonderful thing but a rookie WR who only played 2 years in college with tons of potential won’t make up for the loss of a HoF WR who, in easliy his worst year as a pro represented almost a third of the passing attack. In short, theoretically, you’ve got an improved defense and running game; lost a HoF WR and are expecting a good young WR to step in the void the left by the departure of said HoFer, 3 nobodies and a rookie who only bothered to play for two seasons in college before jetting to the pros. 5 Wrs who will have to have the best years of their careers in order for Culpepper to sniff anything even close to last year. Even if the Wrs outperform my expectations, I wouldn’t expect Culpepper to even match his career averages of 3,719 yards passing, 25 passing Tds, 465 rushing yards, 5 rushing Tds, 14 Ints and 6.2 lost fumbles. Particularly given what appears to be a shift in philosophy to a more balanced offense with a strong defense. Funny thing is, I don’t draft Qbs early anyways so I wasted a bunch of time for no reason. Edited June 20, 2005 by Clubfoothead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Good analysis, Club, lots of interesting info in there. Yer wrong though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Good analysis, Club, lots of interesting info in there. Yer wrong though. 848742[/snapback] Probably but I never fail to thoroughly research my insanity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outshined Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 So Club...to make a long story short. Your're saying We lost Moss, improved our defense and the pressure is off Culpepper. He won't have to throw as much. I'll buy that... The defense will keep him in games something he has never had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 So Club...to make a long story short. Your're saying We lost Moss, improved our defense and the pressure is off Culpepper. He won't have to throw as much. I'll buy that... The defense will keep him in games something he has never had. 849614[/snapback] I'll buy that, too. But as a C-Pepp owner in a dynasty league, I'm crossing my fingers that his athleticism (if he still has it in him) and the fact he has decent weapons to throw to makes him a solid, top-3 fantasy QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outshined Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 Here is some more analysis by somebody else from a different board. Its kind of interesting. I think I posted it before. Many a Packer fan (not me) will incorrectly conclude that the Vikings are dead in the water without Moss. It is easy to make this assumption based off of Moss's history of torching the Pack game in-game out, year in-year out. Viking fans too have fallen prey to the illusion of Moss's invaluableness because we have paid such close attention to Packer games and have seen Moss do his best stuff (remember 98?). Anyway, Ramstein Inc. has done a thorough analysis of the last four years and have concluded, just as Tice has, that their offense shouldn't miss a beat. Clearly Moss's most dominant years were his first three, when he had Carter and defenses didn't bottle him up. He has earned the right to be regarded as the most dominant receiver, based in large part from his exploitations of a weak NFC central...particularly in 1998-2000. However now consider this: 1) In his first 3 seasons, Moss scored 43 TDs and averaged 18.4 yd/catch. He had 30 receptions over 40 yards and 71 over 20 yards. He did this averaging just 75 receptions per year. Remember that in 98 he wasn't the starter all year. During this span the Vikings went to two NFC championships. In his last 4 (he missed five games) years, he has had 47 TDs and averaged 14.5 yd/catch. He had only 22 receptions over 40 yards and 71 over 20 despite averaging 87 receptions per year. During this span, they went to the playoffs just once. 2) His best individual year statistically (2003) was also a year in which the Vikes LOST more games in which he scored than won. In fact, Moss didn't score in four of the nine games the Vikes won but scored in six of the seven games they lost. 2003 was the year the Vikings lead the NFL in total offense yet Moss only exceeded 100 yards in 5 of the 16 games he played in. Moss had 31 more receptions than in any of his first 3 seasons but averaged 3 fewer yards/catch. This was the Randy Ratio.....result? Tons of opportunities...good numbers.....didn't help the team win 3) In the past four years, Moss has played in a total of 62 games. The Vikes were 27-35 during these games, which we know had more to do with their defense than offense. However, during this span, Moss has only had 2 more 100 yard games (22) than he has had less than 60 (20). In other words, he hits 100+ yards every 3rd game and gets less than 60 every 3rd game. Of the 27 wins, he scored TDs in 17 of those games. In their 35 losses, he scored in 18 games. 4) As mentioned, Moss has had a history of putting up big numbers against the Pack. Did you know that he didn't score against Detroit between 12/2001 - 12/2004? In 6 of his last 8 games against the Lions, Moss has been held out of the end zone. The Vikings were 7-1 in those games. 5) Last year, with 1/2 of their starting offensive line (including Kleinsasser) out and without a regular running back during Moss's five game injury, the Vikes averaged only 3 points less a game than when Moss (and others) were healthy. It was during his time out that the Vikes had two tough road games (Indy/GB) in a six day period and came up short by a FG. Without Moss they put up 31 & 28 points, proving without a doubt that Culpepper was the catalyst behind their offense. They beat Detroit/Tenn during this span and beat Jacksonville when Moss came back and played decoy for a quarter. 6) 9 of Moss's 13 TDs last year occurred within the opponents 20 yard line. Only twice all year did he score from Viking's territory. I believe the same applied in 2003. Essentially Moss has become a red zone receiver (a very good one), but Marcus Robinson (playing 1/2 the time of Moss) scored 8 TDs and 5 red zone himself; Burleson scored 6 from within the 20 yard line. While Moss missed some games, how many more times was he thrown to within the opponents 20 yard line than Burleson and Robinson combined? No doubt Travis Taylor would grab some TD's in that offense and no doubt Tice wants to employ his TE's in the red zone more. 7) Moss's notorious unwillingness to not take the middle put the passing game at a disadvantage at times. With Moss as the hot read, Culpepper needed to first look sideline then mid-field. I don't doubt that he was handcuffed because of this a few years ago and now that they have opted to use the TE in the passing game (fat Wiggins had 700+ yards) as well as very good receiving backs, the Viking's offense will be much less inclined to stall. Moss's injury and Culpepper's maturation during the injury are evidence of this. 8) Perhaps most telling to me is that last year (as in years before) Moss scored only four times when the Vikings trailed during the season. He did not score a TD in the first quarter of any game they played last year. Burleson scored six TDs when behind and scored twice in the first quarter. Granted, defenses clearly choose to take him out of the game early...and they did. Moss's value may be in the pressure he took off others but I maintain that as a "game breaker" he needed to step up early and when behind. He can't anymore. In the final analysis I have concluded, as the Viking's brain trusts has that Moss's abilities are no longer the difference maker (for the Vikes) that they once were. It may be said he is poorly utilized but the reality is that teams have opted to take the home run away and make him beat them another way. This is not what you predicate an offense around and Culpepper has proven that Moss isn't needed in order for him to thrive. Looking at the raw data, it is clear that Moss has had some games where he blew apart defenses but wasn't a difference maker more times than not. The Vikes fully realize that they can't replace the deep threat but they can score with a wider variety of options; particularly running. With Robinson and Burleson (and Taylor) the Vikes still possess plenty of "stretchability" so don't expect too many in the box. In 2002 (Moss's lowest TD year) the Vikes scored 46 TDs (Moss had 7) while in 2003 (Moss's best year; 17 TDs) they scored 51 TDs. Last year they scored 50 TDs with Moss missing five games and lame for 1/3 the season. Gentleman the truth of the matter is that Culpepper is infinitely more important to this team's success than Moss and this team will create great offensive production...with or without Randy Moss. He no longer can stretch the field like he first did and the Vikes will be much less predictable and much better positioned to dictate the flow of the game with a 2x better defense and an offense predicated on winning....not scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 I think C Pep will have better fantasy stats without Moss. How you like dem apples? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 I think C Pep will have better fantasy stats without Moss. How you like dem apples? 850405[/snapback] No chance. Nice post Outshined, and I think me and the other dude sort of agree about the 2005 Vikings when he concluded " the Vikes will be much less predictable and much better positioned to dictate the flow of the game with a 2x better defense and an offense predicated on winning....not scoring." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneymakers Posted September 12, 2005 Share Posted September 12, 2005 No real running game? Huh? Bennett's healthy for the first time leading into a season. Moore proved he is a borderline stud when given the featured role. Williams is a competent short-yardage guy. What's not to like here? No Moss? OK so C-Pepp's numbers dipped when Moss was out... for the INITIAL game Moss was out. The following games, C-Pepp locked on with Burleson, Wiggins, and ran a bit more. The continuance of C-Pepp to Burleson will be even more pronounced this season. The addition of a speedy Williamson will also help. There is still an advantage for C-Pepp's rushing TDs because he's the only QB that gets them with any regularity. He'll throw just as many TDs as any other QB (save Manning and perhaps 1-2 others), but it's his ability to RUSH for TDs that makes him special. He will be top 5. Probably top 3. 847729[/snapback] hmmmm No vikings on my team. I think culpepper is on pace to shatter the all time int record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted September 12, 2005 Share Posted September 12, 2005 A bold move by me, to be sure 847564[/snapback] Minnesota fans are still sying no Moss no problem. You got a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted September 12, 2005 Author Share Posted September 12, 2005 One game does not a season make... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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