giantsfan Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 (edited) NO doubt at all he has top 2 and at worst top 3 ability if healthy. But I personally wouldn't take him in the top 5. I rather have LT, Alexander, Manning, Edge, Deuce, and possibily any of McGahee, DD, Lewis, and Dillion over him although the last 4 might be a little stretch. If you take Holmes you HAVE to not might have to but HAVE to take LJ in the 5th or so round. So you are basically spending 2 top 5 picks for the KC running game. Considering you'd need to use a top 4 or so pick on Holmes I say it just isn't worth the risk considering what else you can get in the top 7 lets say. Does anyone agree or am I crazy and not looking at the upside Holmes has? Edited August 18, 2005 by giantsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotgun Messiahs Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Yeah, but when holmes is getting all those points, when he does play you wish you had grabbed him when you had a chance. I've had holmes since he's been in KC and i've dealt with every injury as it occures. But when he's playing I don't ever regret not having him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giantsfan Posted August 18, 2005 Author Share Posted August 18, 2005 (edited) Yeah, but when holmes is getting all those points, when he does play you wish you had grabbed him when you had a chance. I've had holmes since he's been in KC and i've dealt with every injury as it occures. But when he's playing I don't ever regret not having him. 933949[/snapback] And that's the flip side. There is NO doubt that when he plays he is a mega stud unlike basically any other, but I personally wouldn't want that pick to make. If I had 4 or 5 I would REALLY hope Holmes went 3 or 4 so I wouldn't have to make that call. If you take Holmes and don't get LJ I think that's a HUGE mis-step so again you'd need to use 2 top 5 picks for 1 teams running game, so with that said I would not like to be the one to have to deal with that or make that pick. Just too risky from a top 4 pick when picks are supposed to be as close to sure things as possible. Edited August 18, 2005 by giantsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack04 Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I would take him and wouldn't look back. But I like to play slot machines, blackjack and play poker. Just waste your 5th round pick on LJ and watch the fantasy wins pile up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotgun Messiahs Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 There is NO doubt that when he plays he is a mega stud unlike basically any other, 933957[/snapback] When he is healthy there is no other that compares to him. He had like 10 td's in eight games or something like that last year and no other rb was close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giantsfan Posted August 18, 2005 Author Share Posted August 18, 2005 When he is healthy there is no other that compares to him. He had like 10 td's in eight games or something like that last year and no other rb was close. 933964[/snapback] Agreed. I really can see either side. I wouldn't take him top 5 or so, but I couldn't say a thing to someone who took him at 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotgun Messiahs Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 When he is healthy there is no other that compares to him. He had like 10 td's in eight games or something like that last year and no other rb was close. 933964[/snapback] To correct myself that was 12 td's in 8 games last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavinRJohnson Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Hey, gmanfan, happy pigskin season to ya. You may find this discussion interesting: Holmes/LJ Discussion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Be careful waiting until the 5th round to grab him. Depending on the other owners, there might be someone willing to grab him out from under you earlier. I would suggest taking him in the 4th round if you want to be 100% sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 NO doubt at all he has top 2 and at worst top 3 ability if healthy. But I personally wouldn't take him in the top 5. I rather have LT, Alexander, Manning, Edge, Deuce, and possibily any of McGahee, DD, Lewis, and Dillion over him although the last 4 might be a little stretch. If you take Holmes you HAVE to not might have to but HAVE to take LJ in the 5th or so round. So you are basically spending 2 top 5 picks for the KC running game. Considering you'd need to use a top 4 or so pick on Holmes I say it just isn't worth the risk considering what else you can get in the top 7 lets say. Does anyone agree or am I crazy and not looking at the upside Holmes has? 933931[/snapback] Actually, there is no doubt he is far and away the top fantasy player if he's healthy. And if he's not, LJ immediately becomes the top fantasy player. The only reason he's tumbling to the mid first round is because of the injury concern. IMHO, you just have to attack a draft differently in this case. People make fun of the 'Stud RB' draft theory on it's own, but the point of it is to CYA at the RB position. You know that LJ will be a stud RB if Priest goes down, so you are adapting this strategy to fit your Holmes risk. Draft WRs all of the mis rounds and you will be finr drafting Holmes. Or, go Holmes, Stud WR, Stud WR, LJ, Some other Bettis-like RB, WR. It will be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLGRAF Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 My problem with having Holmes and LJ is, what if Holmes is listed as "questionable" or "probable" on the injury report? If you are 100% certain that either Holmes or LJ is going to get a majority of the RB carries, then you are set. But, there will be weeks when it is unclear which will play more. So, you might end up starting them both to cover yourself, meaning your fantasy team is at the mercy of the K.C offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giantsfan Posted August 18, 2005 Author Share Posted August 18, 2005 I think if you take Holmes you HAVE to take LJ. Not well if I don't get him so be it I really believe you HAVE to have him. If I was a Holmes owner I would take LJ in the 4th to play it safe. I say it is 50/50 whether or not he's there in the mid to late 5th and I wouldn't want to risk that. Here's the question. If you take Holmes at 3-5 and LJ in round 4 would you feel comfortable starting both every week? Right now I'd say okay, but what if Holmes carries the full load would you still feel comfortable then? I wouldn't. Again just too many questions involved here not to mention 2 of your first 4 or 5 picks being spent there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Be careful waiting until the 5th round to grab him. Depending on the other owners, there might be someone willing to grab him out from under you earlier. I would suggest taking him in the 4th round if you want to be 100% sure. 934274[/snapback] i think 4th round for LJ is too high, and 5th probably is too. If someone else wants to waste one of their picks, then screw'em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Los Gigantes Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I completely disagree that you HAVE to have LJ. he is no different than any other handcuff, witht he exception that he isn't as much of a drop off potentially. I am perfectly comfortable having holmes without LJ. His injuries the past few years were unrelated and non-reccurring. He is no mor einjury prone than anyone else. People's concerns are over blown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavinRJohnson Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 If you take Holmes at 3-5 and LJ in round 4 would you feel comfortable starting both every week? No, I wouldn't start them both every week. I'd hope for Priest to put up #s equal to 2 or 3 RBs (as said earlier) and I'd hope to squeeze a few point out of fred taylor, michael bennett, tatum bell, kevan barlow, lee suggs, jj arrington or duce staley....I would think one of these would be available in Round 5 as my 2nd RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giantsfan Posted August 18, 2005 Author Share Posted August 18, 2005 I completely disagree that you HAVE to have LJ. he is no different than any other handcuff, witht he exception that he isn't as much of a drop off potentially. I am perfectly comfortable having holmes without LJ. His injuries the past few years were unrelated and non-reccurring. He is no mor einjury prone than anyone else. People's concerns are over blown. 934387[/snapback] That's where we disagree totally. To say at this point that Holmes is no more injury prone than anyone else is crazy I think. Of course anyone can get hurt on any play, but how you can make that statement is beyond me. It just isn't true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROCKNE Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 You are right but.... last year he played 8 games and had over 1000 totalyds & 15 TD's. What would he have had if he played the whole season? He is definitely a high risk / high reward pick. Imagine the team that gets him and if he stays healthy. He'd be the VP of Fantasy Football. I think he's out to prove something this year. How many times have I passed on him only to kick myself? Too many. That being said, I have the first pick and will take LT over him but I wouldn't hesitate to take him at #3 after LT & Alexander. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tega Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I'm with SLGRAF on this one - we know that LJ would be a stud if Priest went down with an injury. The real concern is if both are healthy enough to play, but Priest is a bit dinged up. Do they end up splitting the carries? It would be hard to choose who to put in the lineup (one of them or both of them with another good RB of yours is sitting on the bench). If LJ does as well as last year when he gets the ball, I could see Priest getting more breaks even if he's healthy to keep him healthy. I know you still have to play Priest, but it just makes you think maybe it would be better to draft someone else in the first round and not deal with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartans91 Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I cannot imagine a Non-Holmes owner taking LJ in the 5th round or earlier. That would mean they are taking a backup RB in a position they could be filling with a 3rd starting WR (my leagues starts 3) or #2 RB or #1 QB? That is nuts. If they do, then a decent starter (at any of those other positions) drops down one slot for you and they can let a backup RB sit on their bench. I draft 4th and may get Holmes and I figure on using my 6th/7th round pick on LJ. No way he goes in the top 6 rounds in a ten team league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I cannot imagine a Non-Holmes owner taking LJ in the 5th round or earlier. That would mean they are taking a backup RB in a position they could be filling with a 3rd starting WR (my leagues starts 3) or #2 RB or #1 QB? That is nuts. If they do, then a decent starter (at any of those other positions) drops down one slot for you and they can let a backup RB sit on their bench. I draft 4th and may get Holmes and I figure on using my 6th/7th round pick on LJ. No way he goes in the top 6 rounds in a ten team league. 934426[/snapback] Why not? If Holmes goes down, you immediately have a top 3 RB in PPG for the low, low price of a 5th round pick. You're going to ignore that because you can't dig and find a couple of good sleeper WR picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolf68 Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 (edited) We have a compensatory pick in our draft that is applied to the seventh round. It says you have one shot to select 2 players (at the same time) from the same team provided they are either QB or RB. If I have a shot at Holmes at #3 overall I'll take him and also select Larry Johnson, who would then become my 7th round draft pick. That allows you to "protect" a stud and eliminates the cut-throat actions of many fantasy leaguers....the rule has worked out well, but it certaily changes the value of the player. In my league Holmes is worth more than in a league where you don't have the option to protect him with his primary backup. Edited August 18, 2005 by kwolf68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavinRJohnson Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I cannot imagine a Non-Holmes owner taking LJ in the 5th round or earlier. That would mean they are taking a backup RB in a position they could be filling with a 3rd starting WR (my leagues starts 3) or #2 RB or #1 QB? That is nuts. If they do, then a decent starter (at any of those other positions) drops down one slot for you and they can let a backup RB sit on their bench. I draft 4th and may get Holmes and I figure on using my 6th/7th round pick on LJ. No way he goes in the top 6 rounds in a ten team league. 934426[/snapback] If I take Holmes in Round 1 and I miss LJ...I'll have a trade offer in my lap by the 6th or 7th round. I think all the discussion on this topic is right on so far: If you own Priest and want LJ, take LJ in Round 4. Round 5 is risking it in most leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 (edited) If I take Holmes in Round 1 and I miss LJ...I'll have a trade offer in my lap by the 6th or 7th round. I think all the discussion on this topic is right on so far: If you own Priest and want LJ, take LJ in Round 4. Round 5 is risking it in most leagues. 934468[/snapback] Indeed. You can't compare Priest to other backs for 2 HUGH reasons: He's old, and missed 8 games last year, so the injury issue HAS to be a MAJOR concern. If it's not, you're kidding yourself. His upside is HUGH: 21 TD's in '02 and 27 TD's in '03. HOWEVER, LJ has proven that he can be VERY succesful in KC as a feature back. You have a great system for RB's, and if you take the risky Priest pick with #3 overall, you'd be a moran not to handcuff that, even if it costs you a 4th rounder. JMHO. Show me another situation that's even remotely similar: a great offense for an RB, an old RB whose put up HUGH numbers but was hurt last year, and a proven backup that can put up SOLID numbers. Most teams got to an RBBC clusterf*ck when the primary back goes down, not KC. Edited August 18, 2005 by Hugh 0ne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Most teams got to an RBBC clusterf*ck when the primary back goes down, not KC. 934492[/snapback] Most teams also couldn't even fathom having 2 different RBs score 4TDs in the same game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borge007 Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Most teams also couldn't even fathom having 2 different RBs score 4TDs in the same game. 934506[/snapback] How many astute FF players started both? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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