black tuesday

[dmarc117]

stock markets are closed today but futures were trading. s&p futures were down as much as 70 at 630am. now -45ish. dow futures were -500 at one time this morning. be nimble!!!!!!!!

[Savage Beatings]

Time to move my money from the left side of my mattress to the right.

[Coffeeman]

Goddammit! I am so conflicted about this - I want to pull out and go almost all cash for awhile. But if everyone does, isn't that like a run on the banks during the depression? when will it stop? Is parking my $ in cash now the best thing to protect my family's wealth, or will it eventually doom us all?

 

What the hell is the average investor supposed to do?!?!?

[detlef]

I'm really getting a first hand look at what a Bear Market looks like. It appeared that we had locked down our last investor for my next project and the impending recession scared him off at the last minute. He kept pointing to the horrible retail numbers for this last holiday season and the fact that my place was actually up 15% same month for both November and December wasn't enough to show that my product could be desirable enough to buck the general market. Now I've got a PR nightmare on my hands courtesy of what amounted to a front page eulogy in the main area paper about a local restaurant that recently went under citing the sluggish market among the main reasons (frankly, there are plenty of insiders who've got other theories on the reason for the demise but I wont go into them here). The fact that mine and other places seem to be doing better than just fine seems to be forgotten and people are being super cautious.

 

Meanwhile, the developer who I'm working with is getting squeezed as well. Their investors are freaking out about real estate investment. His situation, however, is not unlike mine. They're rental units have a waiting list and the condos are selling as fast as they can build them. This is not Miami. Prices did not go so sky-high that we're facing a massive correction or even worse, tons of foreclosures due to people buying in way above their heads. None the less, people are scared of real estate.

 

I can really see how this steamrolls. People decide the economy sucks, they start acting like the economy sucks...Next thing you know, the economy sucks.

 

Edit to add: Just for the record, Nov and Dec weren't fluke months as we were up 13% for the year as a whole and are currently up the same amount in average daily sales over last January.

Edited January 21, 2008 by detlef

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

401K up 24% last year...already down 12% the first 3 weeks of this year...I guess I just leave everything sit and hope for a rebound this fall???

Edited January 21, 2008 by CaP'N GRuNGe

[moneymakers]

Gold is doing nicely right now. If dollar continues to fall I expect the value of gold to rise even higher.

[muck]

Reason #1 to not have all of your money invested in things that require the market to go up for you to make money.

[Egret]

Michigan has been in the crapper for awhile. Yesterday there was a woman on the corner by the mall holding a sign that said "Will work for diapers and food for my children." I've lived in this area most of my life, and I've never seen anything like that. State gov't, Michigan State, and GM have always had plenty of jobs for folks in my area. Not so much anymore. I know lots of folks who have lost jobs, unable to sell homes, lost homes, and are living worse than paycheck-to-paycheck. Be safe with you money.

 

I'm very glad that I didn't leave my school district a few years ago. I'd hate to be low on the seniority pole right now.

[TDFFFreak]

Reason #1 to not have all of your money invested in things that require the market to go up for you to make money.

Good ol' diversification.

[TimC]

When you have the Federal Government artificially propping up the economy instead of the natual ebb and flow of the free market, you'll eventually get a correction that'll hurt more than the natural cycle of things. Fake interest rates set by a handful of Government economists will never be the answer. Artificially inflating and deflating the dollar and then handing out short-term tax breaks to cover the real problem is a recipe for disaster long-term. This economy and the people who have prospered because of it deserve everything they get. Judging from the bankruptcy and foreclosures of individuals and corporations alike, I see no one saved for a rainy day...again.

[Avernus]

I would look into foreign markets for investing..India or maybe China...

[Ursa Majoris]

401K up 24% last year...already down 12% the first 3 weeks of this year...I guess I just leave everything sit and hope for a rebound this fall???

I've "lost" $24,000 so far this year but I'm leaving it exactly where it is. It's all paper for another 10 years anyway. Over time, all things must pass - this downturn will too. It's shortsightedness that causes these wild fluctuations anyway.

[isleseeya]

I've "lost" $24,000 so far this year but I'm leaving it exactly where it is. It's all paper for another 10 years anyway. Over time, all things must pass - this downturn will too. It's shortsightedness that causes these wild fluctuations anyway.

 

 

thats basically the way to do it

[muck]

I've "lost" $24,000 so far this year but I'm leaving it exactly where it is. It's all paper for another 10 years anyway. Over time, all things must pass - this downturn will too. It's shortsightedness that causes these wild fluctuations anyway.

 

Beware of faulty logic....just because it happened before doesn't mean it MUST happen again...

 

17yrs and still off by more than 50%

[Double Agent]

We've all taken a hit. But I'm still dumping as much money in as I can. Share prices are down and I'm all about dollar cost averaging.

[dmarc117]

while im not nearly as smart as muck, i would think that todays markets arent as overvalued as the nikkei was or the dotcoms were. then again who knows. if this credit crisis gets worse, we could be in trouble. home prices declining due to subprime mess. if the banks tighten comsumer credit policies such as credit cards and auto loans due to defaults, how much are companies and our economy affected? how much of company xyz'z earnings are due to fake money such as credit cards?

Edited January 21, 2008 by dmarc117

[Ramhock]

Home prices!!

 

Talked to a fella last week, bought his home for 1.5MM in VA 2 years ago. Mortgages = 1.2, wanted 1.3 . . . home would have appraised for 1.050MM.

 

They are a fallin' and it is going to get uglier, for certain!

[TheGrunt]

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHY THE DOW JONES WILL FALL 1,000 POINTS IN JUST DAYS, HERE IT IS:

 

Jim Cramer, on Friday, predicted the DOW will either go up 1,000 or down 1,000 depending on which plan our government takes to help our economy: Jim Cramer's Plan or Bush's plan.

 

I have a feeling our government is NOT taking Jim Cramer's plan. Very interesting video.

 

[Ursa Majoris]

Beware of faulty logic....just because it happened before doesn't mean it MUST happen again...

 

17yrs and still off by more than 50%

As I understand it, there were a lot more problems with the Japanese market than we have right now. That said, like most others, I really know jack about the markets and respect those that make their living there. I do know that over long time periods you're a lot better off in than out. I try to take a long term view rather than panic every time stocks drop - I leave that to the quarterly balance sheet brigade.

 

We've all taken a hit. But I'm still dumping as much money in as I can. Share prices are down and I'm all about dollar cost averaging.

That's my thought too - if I continue to buy my 401k mutuals at reduced share prices, I'll have a $hitload more of them when the market goes back up. That's the theory anyway.

[TheGrunt]

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHY THE DOW JONES WILL FALL 1,000 POINTS IN JUST DAYS, HERE IT IS:

 

Jim Cramer, on Friday, predicted the DOW will either go up 1,000 or down 1,000 depending on which plan our government takes to help our economy: Jim Cramer's Plan or Bush's plan.

 

I have a feeling our government is NOT taking Jim Cramer's plan. Very interesting video.

 

If these insurance companies go bankrupt, things will not be good.

 

MBIA, Inc. (MBI):

The Company provides financial guarantee insurance and other forms of credit protection as well as investment management services to public finance and structured finance issuers and investors and capital market participants on a global basis.

 

The PMI Group, Inc. (PMI):

The Company provides financial products designed to reduce risk, lower costs and expand market access for residential mortgages, public finance obligations and asset-backed securities.

 

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK):

A holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world.

 

Many people don't understand the severity of this situation. Please be careful if you have money in any of these companies, or if you have money in the housing / mortgage industry.

[TheGrunt]

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHY THE DOW JONES WILL FALL 1,000 POINTS IN JUST DAYS, HERE IT IS:

 

Jim Cramer, on Friday, predicted the DOW will either go up 1,000 or down 1,000 depending on which plan our government takes to help our economy: Jim Cramer's Plan or Bush's plan.

I'll reiterate this for those who choose not to watch the video, which if you have money in the stock market I highly suggest you do watch it. Don't say I didn't warn you.

 

The stock market (Dow) could fall "a couple of thousand points overnight..." And this isn't coming from me, these are words from one of the most brilliant investors of our time. If you don't believe me, believe Jim Cramer.

[detlef]

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHY THE DOW JONES WILL FALL 1,000 POINTS IN JUST DAYS, HERE IT IS:

 

Jim Cramer, on Friday, predicted the DOW will either go up 1,000 or down 1,000 depending on which plan our government takes to help our economy: Jim Cramer's Plan or Bush's plan.

 

I have a feeling our government is NOT taking Jim Cramer's plan. Very interesting video.

 

 

 

If these insurance companies go bankrupt, things will not be good.

 

MBIA, Inc. (MBI):

The Company provides financial guarantee insurance and other forms of credit protection as well as investment management services to public finance and structured finance issuers and investors and capital market participants on a global basis.

 

The PMI Group, Inc. (PMI):

The Company provides financial products designed to reduce risk, lower costs and expand market access for residential mortgages, public finance obligations and asset-backed securities.

 

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK):

A holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world.

 

Many people don't understand the severity of this situation. Please be careful if you have money in any of these companies, or if you have money in the housing / mortgage industry.

 

 

I'll reiterate this for those who choose not to watch the video, which if you have money in the stock market I highly suggest you do watch it. Don't say I didn't warn you.

 

The stock market (Dow) could fall "a couple of thousand points overnight..." And this isn't coming from me, these are words from one of the most brilliant investors of our time. If you don't believe me, believe Jim Cramer.

Dude, we got it. Thanks. I think you got your point across with the ALL CAPS AND

[muck]

My primary point, Ursa, is that what has happened before does not NECESSARILY have to happen again.

 

It may, but it doesn't have to...

 

So, while investing on the dips has proven successful over the last twenty years (or eighty), doesn't mean it will going forward. I mean, at some point, the Constantinople Exchange (circa, 'sometime BC') went down and never went up again. Same thing in Rome. Etc.

 

If things extend off to the upper right hand side of a chart simply because they had been going that way for a prolonged period of time, wouldn't the family of the guy who first used fire in a controlled way to cook and heat themselves ... wouldn't their family still rule the world?

 

NOTE: I am NOT predicting the end of the USA or a perpetually falling this or that ... all of this is an encouragement to really internalize the risks you are taking and the risks you are not taking, so that when things go good/bad, you can have a better grasp on why you experienced what you did than if you have not paid close attention to the risks inherent in your decisions.

Edited January 21, 2008 by muck

[TheGrunt]

Dude, we got it. Thanks. I think you got your point across with the ALL CAPS AND

Sorry about the overload there. I've been following the stock market a lot lately and, even though it's probably one of the worst times to start getting involved in stocks, I feel this information is very important for others to know. If you don't want or care to know about it, then don't read it.

[Wolverines Fan]

Michigan has been in the crapper for awhile. Yesterday there was a woman on the corner by the mall holding a sign that said "Will work for diapers and food for my children." I've lived in this area most of my life, and I've never seen anything like that. State gov't, Michigan State, and GM have always had plenty of jobs for folks in my area. Not so much anymore. I know lots of folks who have lost jobs, unable to sell homes, lost homes, and are living worse than paycheck-to-paycheck. Be safe with you money.

 

I'm very glad that I didn't leave my school district a few years ago. I'd hate to be low on the seniority pole right now.

 

This is so sad to see. I was born in Michigan near Ann Arbor and lived in a small town near Saginaw up until 1984 I haven't been back there recently, but my family and I have stayed in touch with friends and neighbors who still live there or used to live there. They've been telling us the same story about the state economy being in the toilet. Some of them reluctantly moved out of state for jobs or better jobs. Many miss the snowmobiling/hunting up north, the rural small town "thing" and would like to go back, but the job market up there is absolutely awful, as I understand it.

 

I'm not an expert in economics, yet I just don't see how things can be improved up there. I don't want to start a debate about which politicians have said what, but it looks like the bulk of those manufacturing jobs are gone for good.

 

And yes, I agree, tomorrow looks like a scary day on Wall Street.

Edited January 21, 2008 by Wolverines Fan