Early thoughts on quantifying the voters

[polksalet]

Here is what I am wondering, with Obama getting slaughtered bu Hillary in some purple states does that mean that MCcain will do the same in KY and WV? I believe it does. Ok, let's say if the black people actually turn out and vote in this election they could win MS but I also find that highly doubtful. That would give the entire south to Mccain. Don't even go there on Florida, Obama will lose it as well.

 

I think we all agree that Mccain will win the midwest or more accurately Obama will lose it. Mcain couldn't win anything.

 

Ok, that gives all of the NE and west coast to Obama along with MN, MI, and Wisconsin.

 

What it appears to me at casual glance is that Obama will win the traditional democrat strongholds and lose all of the "purple" states. This leads me to believe that Mcain could pulverize Obama in the electoral college.

 

What do you think? Am I wrong?

[SuperBalla]

Here is what I am wondering, with Obama getting slaughtered bu Hillary in some purple states does that mean that MCcain will do the same in KY and WV? I believe it does. Ok, let's say if the black people actually turn out and vote in this election they could win MS but I also find that highly doubtful. That would give the entire south to Mccain. Don't even go there on Florida, Obama will lose it as well.

 

I think we all agree that Mccain will win the midwest or more accurately Obama will lose it. Mcain couldn't win anything.

 

Ok, that gives all of the NE and west coast to Obama along with MN, MI, and Wisconsin.

 

What it appears to me at casual glance is that Obama will win the traditional democrat strongholds and lose all of the "purple" states. This leads me to believe that Mcain could pulverize Obama in the electoral college.

 

What do you think? Am I wrong?

 

 

Let's see what the political Gawds such as Ursa and Bushwacked have to say. Good question.

[wiegie]

www.intrade.com has numbers suggesting that the odds are in Obama's favor. If you trust your own analysis, go there and make some money.

[bushwacked]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May26.html

[polksalet]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May26.html

 

It is a pretty map but listing Texas as weak gop threw the map's credibility out the window.

[moneymakers]

It is a pretty map but listing Texas as weak gop threw the map's credibility out the window.

 

+1

 

Obama is unelectable.

 

Rev wright just barely scratches the surface.

 

GOP is holding back big time.

[JoJoTheWebToedBoy]

It may all depend on how much Clinton shakes things up. If she takes it to the convention floor, it's going to weaken the Democratic candidate's abiliy to concentrate on platform, VP, etc.. and that will help McCain. If she somehow gets the nomination, then Obama's support will walk. They will feel that it was stolen and they will sit out the election and take their chances with McCain (who is not the usual Republican).

 

Personally, I think the Republicans are in trouble if Obama is the Democratic choice. McCain is about the weakest candidate the Republicans have put up up in quite a while (although I kinda like the guy). Hell, a good percentage of his own party doesn't like him.

 

But I think you are under estimating the anger in this country. The economy is in the dumps, we have what has become a very unpopular war, the environment, joblessness, and don't even look at gas prices.. Lot of angry folks out there. I think Obama can win, I think he splits the south, takes the Northeast and west coast.

[polksalet]

It may all depend on how much Clinton shakes things up. If she takes it to the convention floor, it's going to weaken the Democratic candidate's abiliy to concentrate on platform, VP, etc.. and that will help McCain. If she somehow gets the nomination, then Obama's support will walk. They will feel that it was stolen and they will sit out the election and take their chances with McCain (who is not the usual Republican).

 

Personally, I think the Republicans are in trouble if Obama is the Democratic choice. McCain is about the weakest candidate the Republicans have put up up in quite a while (although I kinda like the guy). Hell, a good percentage of his own party doesn't like him.

 

But I think you are under estimating the anger in this country. The economy is in the dumps, we have what has become a very unpopular war, the environment, joblessness, and don't even look at gas prices.. Lot of angry folks out there. I think Obama can win, I think he splits the south, takes the Northeast and west coast.

 

 

I'll bet you a grand they do not split the south. Should we send it to Muck to hold for us?

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

http://www.270towin.com/

 

Start with 2004 actual results.

 

Bush 286

Kerry 252

 

Obama could very well flip CO and NM. Let's give NH to McCain because he seems to do well there.

 

I have a feeling Obama is going to flip VA.

 

And I don't see how McCain's hopeless message does with the Ohio voters to tell you the truth. And I think Obama turns IA as well. So my prediction is:

 

McCain 236 (adds NH)

Obama 302 (adds CO, NM, VA, IA, and OH)

 

without VA and OH flipping it gets REALLY interesting:

 

McCain 269 (adds NH)

Obama 269 (adds CO, NM, and IA)

 

So I assume it goes to the Democratically controlled house and Obama is given the tiebreaker.

Edited May 26, 2008 by CaP'N GRuNGe

[Pope Flick]

I think you're overly dismissive of the states in McCains favor and are simply looking for a way to talk yourself into a McCain landslide, but don't let moneymakesr fool you.

 

One advantage that Obama is bringing to the table is the number of new registerees. You also have to consider the manner in which he went about motivating them: remember he cut his teeth in street level community organizing, and that's what helped him whip Hillary. ANd let's not be a haters here, that's exactly what he did to her. She should have run a campaign that allowed her to run away with it. It shouldn't even have been close. This guy wasn't even on the map in 2004, apart from a nice speech at the convention, of which there are usually several. His problem isn't with the 'white working class' it's with Appalachia. Look what he's pulling in Montana against her for instance in the June 3 primary, and that state is filled with black people, right?

 

So scoff at Tx being in play, but consider that he has many more months to register even more voters, while McCain is starting to have his own set of problems on his hands: he keeps rejecting these endorsements and he's going to piss of more of the church group. If they start believing he's no better than Obama, well then Barr might have a real impact come November.

 

One other thing to consider IMO is that Obama might not win states, but by making them competitive he helps the Dems at the locla level, and effects the congressional votes as well. That COULD hinder him though, as the dynamic of people voting one party in congressional races, and the other party in the presidential race in not uncommon. In fact, I don't consider the idea of an Obama presidency and full Dem control of the House and Senate to be an appealing option.

Edited May 26, 2008 by Pope Flick

[untateve]

I think Bob Barr could be a problem for repubs because he has a certain amount of name recognition. He could pull enough repub votes in some southern states to tip a couple to obama.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

I think Bob Barr could be a problem for repubs because he has a certain amount of name recognition. He could pull enough repub votes in some southern states to tip a couple to obama.

 

I read some analysis that maybe Georgia could flip because of Barr.

[Cyclones]

I'll bet you a grand they do not split the south. Should we send it to Muck to hold for us?

 

I want in on this action too, but I'll play for 10 grand - with up to 10 people who want the action.

 

Split the South....Jeez. Dumbest prediction in this thread by a long shot.

[bushwacked]

It is a pretty map but listing Texas as weak gop threw the map's credibility out the window.

 

 

The link had McCain winning Texas by 9%. If you truly believe that McCain wins this easy...I'll be your sacrificial lamb. Next POTUS is Obama, for a benji....

[Duchess Jack]

+1

 

Obama is unelectable.

 

Rev wright just barely scratches the surface.

 

GOP is holding back big time.

That would suggest that Hillary is also holding back. Not a chance. I cannot believe that there is anything the GOP knows that Hillary doesn't

[TheShiznit]

It is a pretty map but listing Texas as weak gop threw the map's credibility out the window.

 

It is based upon an average of polls...not on the feelings of a person or webmaster...reading is fundamental.

[TheShiznit]

I think Bob Barr could be a problem for repubs because he has a certain amount of name recognition. He could pull enough repub votes in some southern states to tip a couple to obama.

 

Namely Georgia since he is from Georgia and is somewhat popular there for taking down Bill Clinton. If he get 12% of the vote, and there is a heavy black turnout there....Obama wins that state.

[polksalet]

It is based upon an average of polls...not on the feelings of a person or webmaster...reading is fundamental.

 

So is independent thought and observation.

[RFFL Chump]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May26.html

 

As I looked at this I saw a link to McCain vs Clinton and looked at it. It is clearly Clinton. Why is she not the best choice............

[TheShiznit]

So is independent thought and observation.

 

Yes, but your observation and thought led you to a conclusion that this website based predictions on thoughts rather than just averaging polls together. It is not my fault you are incapable of reading or independent rational thought.

[wirehairman]

Look what he's pulling in Montana against her for instance in the June 3 primary, and that state is filled with black people, right?

 

Obama was here last week and raised a lot of support, particularly on the reservations and with the 20 somethings. Hillary is planning a stop this week. Things may change drastically after her visit.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

Obama was here last week and raised a lot of support, particularly on the reservations and with the 20 somethings. Hillary is planning a stop this week. Things may change drastically after her visit.

 

Is she going to hand out cash?

[Perchoutofwater]

I wouldn't put much stock in the electorial map linked earlier. The main reason is While Obama and Clinton are roving all over the country trying to sew up their parties nomination, McCain really hasn't been out there. Once Obama and Clinton are finished fighting it out, McCain will step up his campaign, and will more than likely have a lot more to spend on getting his message out. McCain hasn't really had to campaign for the last three months, so he has been relatively inactive, and saving a lot of money for the general election I would assume.

[wirehairman]

Is she going to hand out cash?

 

It was just a first hand observation I thought I'd throw out there, but maybe, I don't know chit. I see as many or more Hillary signs as Obama signs. Montana has a relatively small population, and it was a big deal when Obama made a campaign stop and Hillary had not. Hillary's stop may change the general sentiment among the Democrats around here.

[Pope Flick]

It was just a first hand observation I thought I'd throw out there, but maybe, I don't know chit. I see as many or more Hillary signs as Obama signs. Montana has a relatively small population, and it was a big deal when Obama made a campaign stop and Hillary had not. Hillary's stop may change the general sentiment among the Democrats around here.

 

 

That would go against the trends in this primary: either Obama starts with a lead that he adds to, or she starts ahead and he closes the gap, time after time as the voting gets closer - with few exceptions.