Piles Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 (edited) Good question - it is my understanding that the government just banned short-selling last spring. Such a stupid rule too (the uptick rule) because you never see them ban buyers. Why is it ok to ban sellers but it's perfectly fine to pile on buy orders? You can also look into DOG and QID ETF's Edited January 20, 2010 by Piles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 This is truth. BUT, I did some research today and found a few inverse ETFs that I'm going to buy this week. I'm looking at these (in order of my preference): FAZ - 3x inverse of the Russell 1000 index SRS - 2x inverse of the DJIA Real Estate index SDS - 2x inverse of the S&P 500 index DXD - 2x inverse of the DOW index I think you have a 50% chance of making money. And I think we have a 100% chance of you telling us all about it if you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 This is truth. BUT, I did some research today and found a few inverse ETFs that I'm going to buy this week. I'm looking at these (in order of my preference): FAZ - 3x inverse of the Russell 1000 index SRS - 2x inverse of the DJIA Real Estate index SDS - 2x inverse of the S&P 500 index DXD - 2x inverse of the DOW index FAZ is a good play, but I don't follow ETF's too much.....the rest I'm not familiar with... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 I think you have a 50% chance of making money. And I think we have a 100% chance of you telling us all about it if you do. Are you ever going to participate in this conversation or are you just going to sit back and ask evaluation questions as if you're the teacher of this class and you're above participating? There's been plenty of room for you to flex your economic muscles but you seem content trying to make me look bad. We all know that you're an economist, but that's not good enough for me. Maybe all the sycophants presume your Eric Tyson links are gospel, but it doesn't work for me. I'm not a guy who needs to be right, I'm a guy who just wants the best, most efficient way of doing anything. IF that comes from my own analysis, great - if it comes from someone else, still great. If you disagree with my assertions, then offer something - I want to hear from people who know what they are talking about. Jesus, man - I picture you at home smoking a pipe and wearing a robe as if you're a scholarly great-uncle who teaches wisdom with a look. Oh, and you're correct - I will tell you all about my profits when the market tanks. It's the least I could do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 FAZ is a good play, but I don't follow ETF's too much.....the rest I'm not familiar with... FAZ is a great play if you ask me. It's currently at $17 per share - at it's high last February, it was around $1200. SRS is the inverse Dow Real Estate index and I'm hearing there's going to be an influx of commercial real estate foreclosures - at $7 per share, why not buy some? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 I'm reading your posts Brent and I can't help but think you're just a tad bit overconfident here. If things were set up for you to make such a killing by shorting the market wouldn't others of at least your skill set have seen the same thing and already bought in, making it not such a great play any more? Or are you claiming to be more knowledgeable than 99.9999999% of the people out there who live and breath this stuff 24-7? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 I'm reading your posts Brent and I can't help but think you're just a tad bit overconfident here. If things were set up for you to make such a killing by shorting the market wouldn't others of at least your skill set have seen the same thing and already bought in, making it not such a great play any more? Or are you claiming to be more knowledgeable than 99.9999999% of the people out there who live and breath this stuff 24-7? Well let me clarify one thing - there is no certainty at all, only probabilities. If I have come off as over-confident, it was not intentional because I certainly don't claim to 100% know anything about the future. Another thing, how do you know what others are doing right now with their investments? 99.9% of the hedge funds out there could be preparing for a sell off and you or I would never know it until it's finished or even never at all - AND the only news you or I get is from places like CNBC or the WSJ or IBD etc... 'Most' investors are bullish right now but there are others who are bearish as I am. Maybe most bears don't forsee such a drastic down move as I but there are still bears out there, bears are just in the minority. That last statement I just made is one of the indicators I look for when trying to project a reversal - once the market consists of mostly bulls or mostly bears, that's exactly the time when the market will reverse and do what 'most' don't expect. The other thing to consider is this - 'most' investors cannot be right because trading equities is a zero sum game. All of the advice or news you get out there is probably only right when it's in the middle of a trend - but on the edges, when the trend has slowed, I would say it's better for a novice to trade contrary to popular opinion because again, if 'most' people were right then all of them would be rich from trading stocks. I'm not recommending fading a trend but when it appears the trend is slowing (as it is now in the stock market), then probability favors fading popular opinion (IMO). And finally, I don't recommend to anyone that they short the market, I only recommend getting cash heavy to protect what you have. Wait until there is less uncertainty and then get back in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 be careful with the leveraged etfs. not as cracked up as they seem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 If you disagree with my assertions, then offer something - I want to hear from people who know what they are talking about. As I told my classes at the beginning of this semester: There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know. I'll leave it at that and only observe the thread from here on out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 As I told my classes at the beginning of this semester: There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know. I'll leave it at that and only observe the thread from here on out. If you are implying that I don't know that I don't know then you are wrong. If my message wasn't clear initially, it should be after my last post to Cap'n - I am not certain about anything and I would be a fool to think there is certainty in the market. However, the probability of the market tanking, IMO, is high right now. That is all, nothing more nothing less. Which is why I recommend being cash heavy - at least that way you can't lose money. You may miss profits being cash heavy if my predictions are wrong, but you won't lose money. All investors should have one goal, to not lose money - at least, that's what makes sense to me. I'd still like to see you offer something relevant to the disscussion. Maybe why you think this projection is incorrect or why you might agree with it. Are you afraid of being wrong? If you write under the premise that nobody really knows anything, then you shouldn't be afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyBalata Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 - I picture you at home smoking a pipe and wearing a robe Funny, that's how I picture you at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 Funny, that's how I picture you at home. Wrong kind of pipe . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 If you are implying that I don't know that I don't know then you are wrong. If my message wasn't clear initially, it should be after my last post to Cap'n - I am not certain about anything and I would be a fool to think there is certainty in the market. However, the probability of the market tanking, IMO, is high right now. That is all, nothing more nothing less. Which is why I recommend being cash heavy - at least that way you can't lose money. You may miss profits being cash heavy if my predictions are wrong, but you won't lose money. All investors should have one goal, to not lose money - at least, that's what makes sense to me. I'd still like to see you offer something relevant to the disscussion. Maybe why you think this projection is incorrect or why you might agree with it. Are you afraid of being wrong? If you write under the premise that nobody really knows anything, then you shouldn't be afraid. you have to understand that you're dealing with someone that has arrogance of Brett Favre proportions when it comes to this topic... weige invented the market and investing so you can't tell him otherwise.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 (edited) I'll leave it at that and only observe the thread from here on out. you have to understand that you're dealing with someone that has arrogance of Brett Favre proportions when it comes to this topic... weige invented the market and investing so you can't tell him otherwise.... Nice . Question is, will wiegie bite? Edited January 20, 2010 by cre8tiff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 Anybody know if the DOW is up or down today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 Anybody know if the DOW is up or down today? Only 9,560 pts to go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 Nice . Question is, will wiegie bite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 Anybody know if the DOW is up or down today? the only thing I know is the dollar should be doing well because Gold and Silver dropped like a bad habit this morning... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 the only thing I know is the dollar should be doing well because Gold and Silver dropped like a bad habit this morning... dollar is doing well cause of the china rumors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 the only thing I know is the dollar should be doing well because Gold and Silver dropped like a bad habit this morning... Well, I did mention that gold and silver are going to tank too. Per the EWT, at a minimum, gold and silver should fall below their 2008 lows ($8.91 for silver and $681 for gold). Again, there is no certainty, only probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 Well, I did mention that gold and silver are going to tank too. Per the EWT, at a minimum, gold and silver should fall below their 2008 lows ($8.91 for silver and $681 for gold). Again, there is no certainty, only probability. I really need to start watching post-apocalyptic movies like Mad Max and The Book of Eli for tips on how to survive when the complete and total breakdown of society and economies crumble . . . Brent you are like, such a downer man . . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 dollar is doing well cause of the china rumors Stocks and currencies don't trade off news - any correlation is coincidence. The dollar should climb all year and reach at least 90 - the strengthening of the dollar indicates that deflation is intensifying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 I really need to start watching post-apocalyptic movies like Mad Max and The Book of Eli for tips on how to survive when the complete and total breakdown of society and economies crumble . . . Brent you are like, such a downer man . . . . when people talk about investing in gold/silver the common thought is that these people think it will be complete anarchy and I don't think that at all.... I just think things will get really bad and if I thought things would get that bad, I would put all of my money that I put to Gold/Silver and get more guns instead.... hyper-inflation doesn't mean there will be complete bedlam, it just means our way of life will be completely altered... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 dollar is doing well cause of the china rumors ths is probably the exact reason...actually, you can scratch the word "probably from that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted January 20, 2010 Share Posted January 20, 2010 dollar is doing well cause of the china rumors What China rumors? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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