muck Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 (edited) This guy is ALWAYS a "glass is half empty" guy; also I don't agree with his prognostications ... but, it's an interesting set of things to think about. If that link doesn't work, click this one ... the link above is to a video that is accessable there ... do a search for "David Tice" Edited May 12, 2009 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 i read this one the other day....... http://seekingalpha.com/article/134820-the...e-has-to-say-it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 i read this one the other day....... http://seekingalpha.com/article/134820-the...e-has-to-say-it Wow! I think we are headed in the wrong direction, and that a lot of damage is going to be done to us as a country between now and 2012 that may very well take years to rectify, but even I think that is a little extreme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeteebee Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 This guy is ALWAYS a "glass is half empty" guy; also I don't agree with his prognostications ... but, it's an interesting set of things to think about. If that link doesn't work, click this one ... the link above is to a video that is accessable there ... do a search for "David Tice" Like that guy knows anything. He probably got his degree from GVSU or somesuch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 Wow! I think we are headed in the wrong direction, and that a lot of damage is going to be done to us as a country between now and 2012 that may very well take years to rectify, but even I think that is a little extreme. i agree.....very extreme. but i do think the pension problem will be a huge factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 12, 2009 Author Share Posted May 12, 2009 Like that guy knows anything. He probably got his degree from GVSU or somesuch. Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 12, 2009 Author Share Posted May 12, 2009 This article talks about how much money the Arab countries' sovereign wealth funds have lost ... if it continues, the world may end up with more angry Arabs than we have now, which is a fun thing to think about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Does anyone believe the DOW will sink to 3 digits (under 1,000) within 10 years? I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Wow! I think we are headed in the wrong direction, and that a lot of damage is going to be done to us as a country between now and 2012 that may very well take years to rectify, but even I think that is a little extreme. Doesn't matter. We'll all be dead in 2012 anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egret Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Like that guy knows anything. He probably got his degree from GVSU or somesuch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Like that guy knows anything. He probably got his degree from GVSU or somesuch. or ASU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 or ASU The GVSU reference was pointing to wiegie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 (edited) Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same." This outlook is based on the following main points: * With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity. * Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt. * More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs. Edited May 15, 2009 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 I agree with that assesment. Which is why I said earlier that I think the DOW could go below 1,000 sometime in the next 10 years. I think we are entering a deflationary depression. No one ever points the finger at the Federal Reserve - but I think Greenspan has as much to do with all of this than anybody. You can't continually 'band-aid' the economy by lowering rates and forcing money supply everytime the economy slips. Sometimes you just need to let the free market work itself out. Boom and busts are a direct result of forced demand (by forcing an increase in money supply) and over-valuation of markets. The economy has yet to really collapse and the recent uptrend in the markets the last few months is the calm before the storm. I think the DOW could reach 10,000 and then it will absolutely tank. It might not go all the way down below 1,000 but I bet it gets close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 I think the DOW could reach 10,000 and then it will absolutely tank. It might not go all the way down below 1,000 but I bet it gets close. So, the DJIA goes up about 25% from here, and then down 90%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 So, the DJIA goes up about 25% from here, and then down 90%? Yes, I think it's very possible (but it would be closer to a 20% increase from where it's at now). I think it will be tough for the low to push 1,000 and 2,500-3,000 seems more likely as an absolute bottom. However, depending on how bad things get, I see 1,000 as at least a possibility. I just think everything is completely over-valued right now. Credit is increasing on top of an already large amount of credit. How many IOUs can there be before a hugh bust? I say not much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 I wouldn't dare predict the market - I don't have a clue. I always bought indexed funds. What Brent has said, however, makes a ton of sense to me and is something I've had in my gut for a while. Everyone everywhere is borrowing more and more, including world governments. How far will these paternalistic government tendencies go before everyone has to do what the Soviets did and essentially cry uncle, leaving people to fend for themselves? You want to talk about the little guy being muscled out by criminals - take a look at what happened over there. Hell, the mafaiya still controls more than the government does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 I wouldn't dare predict the market - I don't have a clue. I always bought indexed funds. What Brent has said, however, makes a ton of sense to me and is something I've had in my gut for a while. Everyone everywhere is borrowing more and more, including world governments. How far will these paternalistic government tendencies go before everyone has to do what the Soviets did and essentially cry uncle, leaving people to fend for themselves? You want to talk about the little guy being muscled out by criminals - take a look at what happened over there. Hell, the mafaiya still controls more than the government does. All the more reason to purchase firearms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 All the more reason to purchase firearms. Yeah, but you'll literally have to have a defendable compound too. When there's that much unrest, it'll be like that scene in war of the worlds where they're trying to drive the van through the crowd. You can't kill that many people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 Yeah, but you'll literally have to have a defendable compound too. When there's that much unrest, it'll be like that scene in war of the worlds where they're trying to drive the van through the crowd. You can't kill that many people... get out of the cities, get off the grid. but then your screwed cause everyone is coming there too. im bid for a tank on ebay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 I wouldn't dare predict the market - I don't have a clue. I always bought indexed funds. What Brent has said, however, makes a ton of sense to me and is something I've had in my gut for a while. Everyone everywhere is borrowing more and more, including world governments. How far will these paternalistic government tendencies go before everyone has to do what the Soviets did and essentially cry uncle, leaving people to fend for themselves? You want to talk about the little guy being muscled out by criminals - take a look at what happened over there. Hell, the mafaiya still controls more than the government does. The years 2006 and 2007 were "the peak of prosperity" and the world economy is not likely to return soon to that level, he added. "I think the final low in markets will occur when the system is cleaned out," Faber said. Unless the system is cleaned out of losses, "the way communism collapsed, capitalism will collapse," according to Faber. "The best way to deal with any economic problem is to let the market work it through." The Federal Reserve's policy of printing money is destabilizing the markets and creating "enormous volatility" said Faber, who in his latest "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" wrote that it was money printing that had pushed stock prices up. "The US government for sure will go bust. That I guarantee you. Not tomorrow, but it will go bust," he added. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 I agree with that assesment. Which is why I said earlier that I think the DOW could go below 1,000 sometime in the next 10 years. I think we are entering a deflationary depression. No one ever points the finger at the Federal Reserve - but I think Greenspan has as much to do with all of this than anybody. You can't continually 'band-aid' the economy by lowering rates and forcing money supply everytime the economy slips. Sometimes you just need to let the free market work itself out. Boom and busts are a direct result of forced demand (by forcing an increase in money supply) and over-valuation of markets. The economy has yet to really collapse and the recent uptrend in the markets the last few months is the calm before the storm. I think the DOW could reach 10,000 and then it will absolutely tank. It might not go all the way down below 1,000 but I bet it gets close. Well, when I said this, the DOW was around 8300. It has sputtered it's way up to about 10,800 since then and I believe the doomsday scenario I describe below has started. Don't say I didn't warn you guys. I would be heavy cash as much as possible. I sold all my stocks a few months back in anticipation of a HUGH drop. Don't be surprised if by training camp, the DOW is hovering around 6,000. The next 5 years is going to be BRUTAL in the financial markets. If you are cash heavy, at least you can't lose money. Be patient the next 5 years and buy at the absolute low (DOW below 1,000 as a worst case scenario). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 I know nothing from nothing when it comes to the market but i think you are being WAY to bearish here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 I know nothing from nothing when it comes to the market but i think you are being WAY to bearish here. In the near term (2010) or my worst-case scenario, or both? I'm telling anybody who will listen - LIQUIDATE your 401Ks or any other investments and hold cash or cash equivalents. Worst case scenario if this assesment is wrong - you don't earn money (but you don't lose either). Worst case scenario if you don't take this advice and the market tanks - you lose anything invested. I know everyone wants to believe the market won't get worse than the February 2009 lows - but it can and it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 you could lose if youre all cash if we have massive inflation. im a bear. things dont look good. be nimble. trade, dont buy and hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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