STL Fan Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 It was actually just coincidence that I still had NE and Indy. Wasn't saving them at all. I took the best match-up for 10 weeks in a row. The best match-up in Week 11 was PIT-KC. Just didn't happen. But thanks for the sage advice. I wasn't saying Pitt was a bad choice this week, lots of guys lost on that one. It was just the way your post was worded it sounded like you had been saving Indy and NE. Lots of people do that, and I just thank them for their donation. If that's not what you did, then forgive me for misinterpreting your post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenmaniac Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I am still alive and taking Dallas this week because this looks to be their best matchup thru the rest of the season. Good luck!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I am still alive and taking Dallas this week because this looks to be their best matchup thru the rest of the season. Good luck!!!! I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland won that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenmaniac Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 (edited) After last week with the Raiders and Chiefs nothing would shock me.....but THANK YOU BOTH !!!!!!! Edited November 25, 2009 by ravenmaniac Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mroban Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 After last week with the Raiders and Chiefs nothing would shock me.....but THANK YOU BOTH !!!!!!! Im with you on this one. I wouldnt take anything for granted. One thing I will say though is that both of the upsets last week were teams on the road against non-conference opponents playing in games that they werent taking very seriously. Thats a potent situation for an upset and usually the type of situation where we see these kind of shockers. Pittsburgh on the road at Kansas City and Cincy on the road at Oakland. Dallas is playing very well defensively and at home on Turkey Day they arent going to take anyone lightly. I dont think Oakland will be a push over but Dallas is: a) playing at home (for the 2nd week in a row); is playing at a high level defensively at least; c) Oakland is going cross country to play a non conf. opponent (the week after a big win) on a day they probably would rather be doing anything but playing football (e.g. Thanksgiving). Not a great spot for the Raiders playing against a team that will be highly motivated to win fighting for a playoff spot and coming off a narrow escape against the Redskins. The Skins also have a better run defense than Oakland and the Cowboys should be able to pound the Raiders. I think something along the lines of 24-10 sounds about right. My other team I am taking this week is San Diego. Again, Kansas City has to travel on a short week right after pulling off the shocker. Not a good situation for them really (although it is a division rival). But then again, nothing would shock me. But sticking with home teams in form is a decent enough rule of thumb (if you can). Late in the season though you take what you can get and play the best matchups. This week (IMO) the best matchups are (in no particular order): Cowboys Bengals Falcons Chargers I think Atlanta can come in handy in week 15 (if you are fortunate enough to be there) at home against the Bills so all things being equal id rather play the other teams. Same with the Bengals who have the Lions at home shortly. Saving the best teams is not smart if they are the best matchups but if you have a choice among several teams, if all things are more or less equal there is nothing wrong with playing teams that dont have good matchups in future weeks. Another good reason to play the Cowboys (for me anyway) is that half my pool had them last week (and almost bit it). That means at least half cant take them this week and quite a bit wont because of the narrow escape from last week. So there is a little bit of an edge if a team like the Falcons bites the dust this week. Lots of luck is always needed late in the season in these pools. I have to pick 2 teams a week now and its getting dicey. But we had 5600 people (500k payoff) and are now down to under 300, so its a little exciting. Had the Cowboys and Jags lost last week we would be down to 35 or so. I had the Saints and Cardinals last week, so whew! My rules: 1. Avoid road teams whenever possible, in particular road games against non-conf opponents (see Steelers and Bengals). Especially cross country trips to the Raiders. 2. Try to avoid conference rivals (particularly where one team has won earlier in the season - tough to beat a team 2x in a season). Conversely, the Pats were a great play against the Jets this week (unlikely they were going to lose 2x and were playing at home). 3. Look at key injuries (e.g. Polamalu). I would personally avoid playing the Steelers without Polamalu, he means too much too their defense and their offensive line is awful (did you see the kind of pressure the Chiefs were able to put on him? crazy). 4. Dont take teams with rookie QBs ever. 5. If you have to play a team on the road, make sure they have a solid/very good QB and a strong defense. Teams that rely too much on offensive execution and cant get their defenses off the field tend to make poor road teams (although the Cardinals are doing much better this year). But in general, look at form first. If a team has seen a recent dip in form, just stay away from them. Look for the teams in the best form and play them. The Chargers right now fit that bill. Hit them this week for sure. I would stay far far away from the Broncos until further notice no matter who they are playing (to state the obvious). Cowboys had been playing very well until the last few games, so you could argue that their form has dipped. So there is that. Im rambling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 This is why my personal philosophy is that you never try to "save" a team for later. Take your best matchup every week and let next week handle itself. It's crazy to go down with Indy and NE still on your bench. For the record, I'm still in it this year, and in five pools over three years, i've won twice and finished second once. I'll agree to a point that "saving" a good team can certainly backfire. I'll disagree slightly with "take your best matchup every week and let next week handle itself". That is a good way to end up stuck some week picking amongst middling teams that could go either way IMO. There is real strategy and value in looking at the whole season and identifying when you feel you can use some teams and which weeks are going to be tougher(and constantly revisiting that). Obviously, if you dont get past the current week all the planning you did matters none and therein lies the rub. Its a fine line between advancing and advancing while leaving yourself the best options for the subsequent weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 I'll agree to a point that "saving" a good team can certainly backfire. I'll disagree slightly with "take your best matchup every week and let next week handle itself". That is a good way to end up stuck some week picking amongst middling teams that could go either way IMO. There is real strategy and value in looking at the whole season and identifying when you feel you can use some teams and which weeks are going to be tougher(and constantly revisiting that). Obviously, if you dont get past the current week all the planning you did matters none and therein lies the rub. Its a fine line between advancing and advancing while leaving yourself the best options for the subsequent weeks. I don't think the fine line exists. Advance at all costs. You don't get any credit for strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mroban Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 I'll agree to a point that "saving" a good team can certainly backfire. I'll disagree slightly with "take your best matchup every week and let next week handle itself". That is a good way to end up stuck some week picking amongst middling teams that could go either way IMO. There is real strategy and value in looking at the whole season and identifying when you feel you can use some teams and which weeks are going to be tougher(and constantly revisiting that). Obviously, if you dont get past the current week all the planning you did matters none and therein lies the rub. Its a fine line between advancing and advancing while leaving yourself the best options for the subsequent weeks. Really depends on the size of the pool. If you have 12 guys in a pool its unlikely the pool will last deep into the season. Conversely, if you are in a 5,000 person pool with a massive payout then employing some late season strategy makes sense as its really the only way you can win the pool. If you are in week 16 and have the Patriots and nobody else does, you not only have a huge advantage but are in a better position to make a deal that is favorable to you. Of course, if the Patriots are the best team to take in any given week and the rest of the games are coinflips. you would be crazy not to take them that week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madman34698 Posted November 26, 2009 Share Posted November 26, 2009 I think picking Seattle as your survivor pick is king of crazy, no matter how bad you think the Rams are (almost beat NO on the road two weeks ago) Seattle is 0-5 on the road and they were blow out in every game. My strategy is to only pick home teams if at all possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 I don't think the fine line exists. Advance at all costs. You don't get any credit for strategy. While you dont technically get "credit" for strategy, you may get paid as a result of using some... Lets take this week for example. According to your rule, I should have taken my best available matchup and not given thought to next week or beyond. My "best" matchup this week(at least going by point spread) would be the Bengals @home vs Cle. I could have gone that route, but instead I went with Dallas and now have the option of using Cinci next week when they are home again vs Det. 35% of the remaining people in the pool went with Cinci this week. Assuming the Bengals beat Cleveland sunday, those people will all advance but not have the option of choosing what is likely to be one of the most favorable matchups to choose from in week 13. They will need to choose a different team and I think next week is tougher to call than this week. I like Cinci's prospects in Week 13 and Week 16 so I chose to go with Dallas whom I liked this week but not so much beyond this week. Now, I am in no way suggesting that I am home free or anything like that. Upsets can happen at any time and knock you out whether you take a team favored by 3 scores or by a mere 3 points. Just saying you can put yourself in advantageous positions by looking beyond the current week and/or going with teams that are not necessarily the "best matchup" of the week but good enough to get you by. Its been my experience that most people are like sheep and will just pick whatever the biggest point spread that week is. The "herd" will continue on until there is a big upset at which time you'll see a mass exodus. Or, if they manage to keep advancing, you'll see them all faced with the same matchups to choose from and they will likely all live or die together. I think if you really want to win a pool and not just hang with the "herd" you need to zig a little bit when they all zag... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Really depends on the size of the pool. If you have 12 guys in a pool its unlikely the pool will last deep into the season. Conversely, if you are in a 5,000 person pool with a massive payout then employing some late season strategy makes sense as its really the only way you can win the pool. If you are in week 16 and have the Patriots and nobody else does, you not only have a huge advantage but are in a better position to make a deal that is favorable to you. Of course, if the Patriots are the best team to take in any given week and the rest of the games are coinflips. you would be crazy not to take them that week. Well said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 I think picking Seattle as your survivor pick is king of crazy, no matter how bad you think the Rams are (almost beat NO on the road two weeks ago) Seattle is 0-5 on the road and they were blow out in every game. My strategy is to only pick home teams if at all possible. Actually, that game was in STL, but the point is still valid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Really depends on the size of the pool. If you have 12 guys in a pool its unlikely the pool will last deep into the season. Conversely, if you are in a 5,000 person pool with a massive payout then employing some late season strategy makes sense as its really the only way you can win the pool. If you are in week 16 and have the Patriots and nobody else does, you not only have a huge advantage but are in a better position to make a deal that is favorable to you. Of course, if the Patriots are the best team to take in any given week and the rest of the games are coinflips. you would be crazy not to take them that week. True, I guess if you're in one of those gigantic on-line pools, you have to employ some late season strategy and get a little lucky during the season because those often go well into the playoffs. But in a smaller pool, nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWmaker Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Made it through another week. How about you? Now deciding btwn New Orleans & San Diego for wk 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 3, 2009 Share Posted December 3, 2009 Still alive, I've got Cincy this week probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitbull739 Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 (edited) Down to me and one other owner in a local 14 team league. Steelers fan rolling with the Bungles this week. Hard for me to even type that, but sometimes the truth hurts. My head and heart will be rooting for the Lions, my wallet for the striped kitty's. Edited December 6, 2009 by Pitbull739 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhippens Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 I'm still in right now with 11 guys (68 started). I'm thinking about rolling with PIT at home over NEP or DEN. Hopefully Ben is back and they are in a tight spot with the playoff chase so I hope they aren't screwing around today. My plan (if I get this lucky) for the rest of the year: 13: PIT 14: NEP (Home v. CAR 15: DEN (Home v. OAK) 16: ARI (Home v. STL) 17: SFO (Road v. STL) Obviously lots of football to be played but I don't mind the way it's shaping up. Good luck to those of you that are still in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWmaker Posted December 18, 2009 Author Share Posted December 18, 2009 Heading into week 15, I'm still alive. Teams to pick from (proposed selections in bold): BUF CAR CIN vs. KCC wk 16 CLE DEN vs. OAK wk 15, vs. KCC wk 17 DET GBP vs. SEA wk 16 HOU @STL wk 15 KCC MIA NEP @BUF wk 15 NYJ OAK PIT SDC vs. WAS wk 17 SEA STL TBB was thinking going HOU this wk @ STL which would lead DEN vs. KCC in wk 17. Who else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 Still alive, probably got Arizona this week at Detroit. I also have Houston as a possibility against my Rams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 Heading into week 15, I'm still alive. Teams to pick from (proposed selections in bold): BUF CAR CIN vs. KCC wk 16 CLE DEN vs. OAK wk 15, vs. KCC wk 17 DET GBP vs. SEA wk 16 HOU @STL wk 15 KCC MIA NEP @BUF wk 15 NYJ OAK PIT SDC vs. WAS wk 17 SEA STL TBB was thinking going HOU this wk @ STL which would lead DEN vs. KCC in wk 17. Who else? This is tough because there is a decent chance San Diego has nothing to play for in week 17 if playoff seeding is already determined by then. And SD locks in a first round bye with a win this weekend. So I wouldn't count on that game. But the HOU-STL game seems like a strong play anyway, and Denver will most likely have something to play for in week 17 vs the Chiefs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 Wk 15: HOU Wk 16: SFO Wk 17: DEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted December 21, 2009 Share Posted December 21, 2009 Was down to me and 2 other guys this weekend...I took Houston and they both took Denver...yah! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWmaker Posted December 21, 2009 Author Share Posted December 21, 2009 Based partially on this thread, I switched from Denver to picking Houston. Still alive going into week 16. Only playing for personal pride now as I'm outright winner of the pool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted December 21, 2009 Share Posted December 21, 2009 Denver was playing a team that was starting a new QB...which breaks the rule of never starting a team in a Survivor league that doesn't have at least one week of game film on the opposing team's QB. Houston had 1 week of film on Null... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Fan Posted December 22, 2009 Share Posted December 22, 2009 Denver was playing a team that was starting a new QB...which breaks the rule of never starting a team in a Survivor league that doesn't have at least one week of game film on the opposing team's QB. Houston had 1 week of film on Null... And ironically Null had a MUCH better game this week than he had last week, so a fat lot of good it did them to have a week of game film on the guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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