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My gut tells me.....


Coach1310
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Who do you have as big suprises and busts and the like....

 

QB

Matt Cassell as a suprise.... not elite, but around #10 by years end.. the article on late draft sleepers kinda stole my thunder.

Phillip Rivers as a disappointment. No VJax, no Left tackle and a movement to more run heavy in my opinion

 

RB

K. Moreno as a suprise.... not much competition and his injury worry will lower his ADP which is fine by me

C. Benson as a dissappoinment... not sure why, but I just can't see him repeating last year

 

WR

W. Welker as a suprise... maybe not a huge suprise, but I see ZERO affect from the knee and over 100 catches again

M. Austin as a dissappointment... A lot of hype for a one good year...

Edited by Coach1310
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QB:

 

Chad Henne as a suprise, with the addition of Marshall, the always sound running game and the development of Bess, I expect good things from Henne...top 12 QB imo

 

Aaron Rodgers as a disapointment....he was the top fantasy QB last year despite poor offensive line....the schedule this year is tougher then it was last and the offensive line isnt any better....I still expect Arod in the top 10, but I project him more in the 5-8 range this year

 

RB:

 

Adrian Peterson as a disapointment....again schedule is tough, offesnive line is getting old and old quick....I still think top 10, but would go with 5-8 range as opposed to the usual 1-3 range for AP

 

Cedric Benson as a disapointment......had a resurgence last year but I smell a fall back year for Benson....dont have any exact reasons but my gut tells me this...

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QB

Matthew Stafford will have 3500+ yards and deliver 10 more TDs than INTs. Everything going right for him right now, more experience, healthy CJ, Nate Burleson is legit, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith can take some pressure off, and the run defense is getting better. The bad pass defense means some more shootouts, and with more weapons Stafford can keep up. I traded Rodgers away for Moss and R. Brown because I think Stafford is going to put up top-10 numbers

 

Bust: Tom Brady. As usual, hard as hell schedule, faces two tough defenses in weeks 15+16, and last year they were right in the middle with run/pass splits. Welker is probably not as effective as normal and he's got nothing for a TE.

 

RB

Love Frank Gore this year. No Glen Coffee, a passing attack that's actually going to drive down the field and allow Gore to do work. He's a monster workhorse. He's got an easy schedule against run-defenses, plays SDG, STL in weeks 15+16, and should get 275 carries this year. My projection is 2000+ yards and 12-13 TDs

 

Bust: Matt Forte. Mike Martz despises RBs, Jay Cutler has some young weapons in Knox and Aramashodu, and he's got Chester Taylor to finally get carries this year. They could be as high as 55/45 this year, and Taylor is an even better receiver than Forte. I wouldn't take Forte in the 8th round, let alone the 5th.

 

WR

Jeremy Maclin is my late pick, he'll get a ton of yards and could take away the TDs that DJax was getting last year. Kolb likes him so far and that could mean a huge number of yards. The only thing you know you won't get is RZ touches, but 60 yards is equal to a TD

 

I don't like Andre Johnson this year. He has an easy stretch of games this year, but then he faces Oakland (Asoghuma), Indianapolis (my #4 pass defense this year) twice, Jets (Revis Island), and the Broncos in week 16 (great matchup). AJ could end up putting about 200 yards and 2 TDs in those 5 games combined. Not worth a #6 pick this year

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QB

Bust: Matt Forte. Mike Martz despises RBs, Jay Cutler has some young weapons in Knox and Aramashodu, and he's got Chester Taylor to finally get carries this year. They could be as high as 55/45 this year, and Taylor is an even better receiver than Forte. I wouldn't take Forte in the 8th round, let alone the 5th.

 

I don't like Andre Johnson this year. He has an easy stretch of games this year, but then he faces Oakland (Asoghuma), Indianapolis (my #4 pass defense this year) twice, Jets (Revis Island), and the Broncos in week 16 (great matchup). AJ could end up putting about 200 yards and 2 TDs in those 5 games combined. Not worth a #6 pick this year

 

I like your other picks alot, and your logic sounds good, but have you watched these guys play? Forte looked great in the last preseason game. I guess I can see the doubts that he can continue that, but if I'm in need of a 2nd or 3rd RB later, he's definitely not on my 10-foot-pole list anymore.

 

But AJ, really? You're talking THE lowest risk WR, regardless of schedule. AJ is just a freak in every capacity of the word, and with Schaub throwing to him, and so many other WRs with more question marks and risk, he's the epitome of low risk.

 

 

My hunch is that McGahee becomes a true backup to Rice, which leads to Rice ending up the #1 RB in the NFL this year, and a lock for #1 next year in PPR... Kid is a superstud in the making.

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I feel like Matthew with SD is going to be a beast. I think LT really hasn't been himself for a number of years. SD will not only let him run a ton, but I also think he catches a number of passes as well. I'm really high on his potential production this year.

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My gut tells me to avoid all Broncos this year.

 

Other gut instincts:

 

Matthew Stafford is the QB of the future for the Lions, and they will above average in total offense this year (i.e. 15th or higher). Of course their defense will finish 30th or worse overall and they'll still only finish 5-11, but it's still an improvement!

 

Portis is going to be a good value this year. Regardless of whether or not he's got anything left in the tank, Shanahan always seems to get something out of the running game, and he doesn't really have serious competition for snaps.

 

Matt Forte will resurface as a top 10 PPR running back.

 

Jake Delhomme will play well enough to keep the job in Cleveland, and he'll play well enough to make Mohammed Massaquoi a spot starter or deep league flex play.

 

Buffalo will have the 1st pick in the 2011 NFL draft.

 

Wes Welker isn't going to make it through the entire season without reinjuring his knee.

 

The Dolphins might make some noise in the AFC East - I feel like they're being overlooked because of the Jets and Pats. They're a good football team on both sides.

 

I actually think Mike Martz will use Greg Olsen as a WR, but I'm not sold on any WR in this offense standing significantly out than any other by year's end.

 

I am sold on Jamaal Charles being "the man" in KC. Todd Haley is a dolt for playing games with the depth chart, and when push comes to shove, he knows this offense will have to have Charles as its centerpiece if he wants the best chance to win (and keep his job).

 

Lastly, my gut tells me that Michael Crabtree is going to disappoint people who draft him. I just don't have faith that Alex Smith will continue to play well enough to make him relevant.

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I'm not saying AJ won't put up huge numbers (I still think he will go over 1,300 yards), but he's got maybe the toughest schedule for any WR this year. I love him except for that stretch of games. Besides that, he's #1 no doubt and still #1 overall. It's just a question of do you take AJ or Rashard Mendenhall with #6/#7, I'd go Mendenhall and wait for a different elite WR

Also add that he's never scored 10 TDs in his life and there's no reason to think he will this year for some reason. That's just my thought

Edited by MoOnshine22
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I think SF will emerge as an offensive fantasy machine. The whole crew - Gore, Crabtree, Davis, A. Smith. Think Dallas Cowboys early 90s. I remember hearing Alex Smith's college coach comment that he's not necessarily the fastest learner but when he 'gets it', he basically masters it. Since that is similar to myself, that remark has stuck with me. For the first time he has the same offensive system and coordinator in consecutive years, I think he's the surprise of the NFL this year. 25+ passing TDs from Smith and a playoff birth for the 49ers.

 

L.T. will be fantasy relevant this year. I think his floor is 240 total touches (run/catch) and I see that turn into 1,100+ yards and 10+ TDs. With that O-line, the amount of carries to go around and that rookie FB clearing some holes - I like the Jet run game, especially L.T.'s value in fantasy.

 

Larry Fitzgerald has a better season than last year. I will be hesitant to draft him because of his knee and because of Leinart but he's a STUD in his PRIME. His yardage numbers were pedestrian last year (under 1100) but he did have 13 TDs. I think Anderson will be taking over eventually and he was a pro-bowler with brick-handed Braylon Edwards. Fitz should get at least another 200 yards this season because he's their only weapon and no more Boldin. If that happens any number of TDs over 10 means he beats last year's numbers.

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^^ Agreed man, on SFO. I love Alex Smith this year, and I love Gore so much I took him 4th. He's a workhorse and has been working with no help from the passing game, but Smith will be a stud this year. I completely agree, the 49ers have a chance at the playoffs this year with their stacked rushing defense. Just need to stop people through the air and stay healthy

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QB

Matthew Stafford will have 3500+ yards and deliver 10 more TDs than INTs. Everything going right for him right now, more experience, healthy CJ, Nate Burleson is legit, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith can take some pressure off, and the run defense is getting better. The bad pass defense means some more shootouts, and with more weapons Stafford can keep up. I traded Rodgers away for Moss and R. Brown because I think Stafford is going to put up top-10 numbers

 

MoOnshine22

Huddler

Group: Members

Joined: Yesterday, 7:20 PM

Member No.: 23,783

Fan of the: Lions

 

12-Team League

QB: Matthew Stafford

RB: Frank Gore, Beanie Wells

WR: Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Dwayne Bowe

TE: Kellen Winslow

RB/WR: Ronnie Brown

K: Lawrence Tynes

DEF: Vikings

 

RB: Carnell Williams, Bernard Scott, Steve Slaton

WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Jeremy Maclin

TE: Dustin Keller

 

hmmm... :wacko:

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My gut tells me.....

 

One of the Bears other receivers, Earl Bennett or Rashied Davis, will be a hot waiver-wire grab very soon.

 

(Bennett's been nursing a hammy but he's Cutler's best friend from Vanderbilt, caught 54 passes last year. Rashied just received camp-hype praise from Cutler yesterday.)

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MoOnshine22

Huddler

Group: Members

Joined: Yesterday, 7:20 PM

Member No.: 23,783

Fan of the: Lions

 

12-Team League

QB: Matthew Stafford

RB: Frank Gore, Beanie Wells

WR: Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Dwayne Bowe

TE: Kellen Winslow

RB/WR: Ronnie Brown

K: Lawrence Tynes

DEF: Vikings

 

RB: Carnell Williams, Bernard Scott, Steve Slaton

WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Jeremy Maclin

TE: Dustin Keller

 

hmmm... :wacko:

 

Hahaha I wouldn't have him as my starter if I didn't have a gut feeling he would put up huge numbers

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That the Rams will improve to 2-14 this year! :wacko::tup:

 

I agree with this in theory and I have been saying the same thing, but a friend of mine challenged me to look at the schedule and find two wins. It's tough.

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QB

High

Kevin Kolb--Weaponry and still should be a pass 1st and 2nd team.

Joe Flacco--Boldin's arrival makes him a legit fantasy starter

Bradford--I'm not saying I'd ever take him as a starter, but this kid will have moments.

Low

McNabb--he has loved finding his backs for years, doesn't have that guy in DC

Cassell--team will try to run first. Cassell isn't talented, not many reciving options.

Stafford--I was extremely disappointed when I watched him last year. In two years we'll be talking about a huge bust.

 

RB

High

Beanie Wells---team will have to run, and they have the beast that will allow them to do so

DeAngelo--If healthy, still has top 5 game

Donald Brown--treated with kid gloves last year. This year we'll get to find out what he can do.

Leon Washington--always loved his talent, now should get the opportunity to shine, but team will hold him back. Still a good late round pick.

Low

Moreno--not that talented. He was a reach by the Broncos last year, lacks the explosion to take the big step forward

Jamaal Charles--on that offense, now with Thomas Jones, I might be dead wrong on this guy, but not buying.

Steven Jackson--Never had two good years in a row.

 

WR

High

Harvin--more involved than ever with Rice ailing

Desean Jackson--Stud. I just love that his stock is lowering.

Sims-Walker--Talent was there last year. Consistency comes this year.

Jennings--Rodgers will figure out how to get him the rock. Won't get as much attention from defenses this year.

Low

Calvin--LOVE this guy. Don't like his QB. I don't know that he can be consistent.

Garcon---Just too many options that all share the ball

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