Mayock's Mock

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/mock-drafts/mike-mayock/60103

 

Surprise, surprise: Don't be shocked if ...

 

By Mike Mayock | NFL Network

 

The draft process has finally led us to the eve of the 2011 NFL Draft and the time to unveil my first-ever official mock draft. The most difficult thing about putting together this mock was quarterback placement and the potential for movement at the end of the first round. I still expect to see eight quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds of what will be a historic draft.

 

I think there will be more trades this year than people have seen in the history of the NFL draft. However, because of the uncertainty created by the lack of free agency, teams have more needs than ever, and to compound that there are certain position groups in this draft that are simply bad.

 

You’re going to see some teams trading to get down, and other teams trying to trade up in order to get specific players of interest. I know you’re not supposed to do trades in a mock draft, but I’ve got some surprises.

 

So here we go, folks, my mock draft:

 

Pick No.

1 Cam Newton QBAuburn

This is a tough one for me. I’ve been trying to talk myself out of a quarterback for the last three months. The Panthers took Jimmy Clausen a year ago in the second round, so by taking one here they're admitting a mistake. But if you don’t have a franchise guy, you can’t compete. Newton can run, he can pass. They’re going to have to protect him early by running the ball and playing good defense. They want to build the offense around his talents.

 

Pick No.

2 Von Miller LBTexas A&M

Everyone thinks this pick will be Marcell Dareus, but look at the big picture for the Broncos. Defensive tackle is a strength of this draft, so the Broncos take Miller, the best edge rusher, and then come back and get a defensive tackle with their next pick.

 

Pick No.

3 Marcell Dareus DTAlabama

With everyone thinking Miller would go to Buffalo, what are the Bills going to do? They go Dareus, a scheme-diverse guy who can play all three spots in the 3-4 front. My favorite player in the draft.

 

Pick No.

4 A.J. Green WRGeorgia

I struggled with this pick. Could easily be a quarterback, but Green has a rare skill set. I almost picked Blaine Gabbert here, but I really believe with the uncertainty over T.O. they go Green here.

 

Pick No.

5 Patrick Peterson DBLSU

The Cardinals pass on the quarterback here and take the top corner in the draft. He can take pressure off other guys in the secondary and can also help in the return game. With this pick, the Cardinals feel they can compete right now in a watered-down NFC West. This pick shows the Cardinals believe they’ll get a veteran QB this offseason.

 

Pick No.

6 Julio Jones WRAlabama

This is a tough position for the Browns, who would like to get an edge rusher with this pick. But new coach Pat Shurmur is an offensive guy. I love Jones, who will help protect the development of young quarterback Colt McCoy.

 

Pick No.

7 Blaine Gabbert QBMissouri

I was thinking corner or rush lineman initially, but the quarterback is there in this scenario. There's a new regime in San Francisco, so the 49ers are going to have to turn things around. Gabbert is my top-rated quarterback. I love the marriage of Gabbert and coach Jim Harbaugh.

 

Pick No.

8 Nick Fairley DTAuburn

If the Titans can re-sign free agent defensive ends Jason Babin and Dave Ball, they can plug in Fairley immediately to upgrade the middle of the defensive line.

 

Pick No.

9 Tyron Smith OTUSC

I think the Cowboys would like to trade down here, but this kid is talented. Dallas can plug him in at right tackle, and he upgrades the youth and athleticism of the offensive line.

 

Pick No.

10 Prince Amukamara CBNebraska

Do the Redskins think about a quarterback here? Maybe. But cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Phillip Buchanon are both set to be free agents. If I’m Mike Shanahan, I look at Amukamara as one of the most gifted players in the draft and an immediate help.

 

Pick No.

11 Robert Quinn DENorth Carolina

Jobs are on the line in Houston, and the Texans need to upgrade the defense. With Amukamara off the board, I think they turn to the rush linebacker position as they transition to a 3-4 defense. Quinn is the protoypical 3-4 option, and he’s got all kinds of upside. There is some risk involved because we’ve never seen him stand up and play in this scheme.

 

Pick No.

12 Aldon Smith DEMissouri

In desperate need of a QB, the Vikings go the veteran route. If they don’t re-sign Ray Edwards, they line up Smith opposite Jared Allen and return to the dominance of their front-four defense.

 

Pick No.

13 Anthony Castonzo OLBoston College

This is a no-brainer pick for the Lions. Veteran Jeff Backus is in the last year of his deal. Castonzo gets a one-year apprenticeship at right tackle, and a year from now he replaces Backus over on the left side and stays there for the next 10 years to protect Matthew Stafford.

 

Pick No.

14 Corey Liuget DTIllinois

The Rams have huge needs along the defense line. I love Liuget, who is a prototypical 3-technique and fits immediately into a rotation for Steve Spagnuolo. Liuget is a winner and immediately upgrades the talent along the line for the Rams.

 

Pick No.

15 Mike Pouncey OLFlorida

The Dolphins are in an awkward spot. It’s probably too early for the quarterback they need, and they also need a wide receiver or skill player who can make a difference on the edge. They aren’t there at No. 15. They can take Pouncey and plug him in. I don’t care if it’s at center or guard, he’s going to play.

 

Pick No.

16 Ryan Kerrigan DEPurdue

This pick has GM Gene Smith’s fingerprints all over it. Kerrigan is special. He’s a great complement to Aaron Kampman on the other side for a poor pass-rush team. Could be a heck of a front line with recent DT draft picks Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton.

 

Pick No.

17 Cameron Jordan DE

CaliforniaA five-technique for the Pats here from the pick they got from the Raiders when they dealt the prototypical 5-technique in Richard Seymour. Jordan might be the best 5-technique in this draft. He gives them scheme versatility because you can play him inside, and he can stand up.

 

Pick No.

18 J.J. Watt DEWisconsin

The next 3-4 team on the board takes the next best 5-technique defensive end. When the Chargers move to nickel or sub packages, they can slide Watt inside and he’ll continue to play at a high level. The Chargers covet scheme versatility and get it in Watt.

 

Pick No.

19 Mark Ingram RBAlabama

The Giants are thinking about a left tackle like Nate Solder, so they can kick David Diehl inside. But the value of Mark Ingram is too high at this point, plus don't assume they can re-sign both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Ingram can take a pounding, he’ll pass protect, he’ll catch the football.

 

Pick No.

20 Da'Quan Bowers DEClemson

The slide stops here for Bowers, who was once thought of as a potential top overall pick. Bowers provides an immediate explosion off the edge for a defense that was 30th in total sacks last season. Coach Raheem Morris has a history of dealing well with players, and this is a great pick for the Bucs, who get a top-10 player.

 

Pick No.

21 Danny Watkins OLBaylor

When Scott Pioli worked with the Patriots, they took a guy named Logan Mankins. I see his reincarnation in Watkins. I think Watkins is a Pioli guy. He’s a try-hard kid. He’s gifted, tough and mean. You plug him in at right tackle in Year 1, and he’ll be able to move inside later, if needed.

 

Pick No.

22 Nate Solder OLColorado

The Colts have been looking for answers at left tackle for a long time. Solder needs more lower-body strength but has good feet and will take care of Peyton Manning’s blind side. At some point the Colts will have a Pro Bowl tackle in Solder.

 

Pick No.

23 Gabe Carimi OLWisconsin

Carimi was a left tackle at Wisconsin, but I like him on the interior of the offensive line from Day 1. The Eagles have had a bunch of issues inside over the last couple of years with injuries. Their center, Jamaal Jackson, is getting old, and their two guards are free agents. You plug Carimi in and play him.

 

Pick No.

24 Phil Taylor DLBaylor

At this point, the entire defensive side of the Saints’ draft board has been decimated. But pairing Taylor with Sedrick Ellis on the inside of the defensive line creates a formidable, young duo. At 335 pounds, Taylor is a dancing bear who gives the Saints the ability to be both stout against the run and provides a push in the pocket.

 

Pick No.

25 Marvin Austin DLNorth Carolina

Pete Carroll is not afraid of Marvin Austin. He didn’t play last year, but he’s rehabbed his image. He played great at the East-West Shrine Game and turned it on at the NFL Scouting Combine. He’s a gifted specimen, and he’s the ideal 3-technique. He fits, especially if the Seahawks don’t re-sign Brandon Mebane.

 

Pick No.

26 Jimmy Smith CBColorado

This is a great fit and a win-win situation for both Smith and the Ravens. Smith is one of the most physically gifted players in the draft who has dealt with off-field issues, and he benefits from the infrastructure of the veteran locker room of the Ravens. The Ravens get a big, physical player who is a top-10 talent.

 

Pick No.

27 Adrian Clayborn DLIowa

This is the point where the quarterbacks start to come into play as far as other teams trying to trade up. If Atlanta is stuck here, Clayborn is the pick. There are some concerns about one side of his body because of Erb's Palsy, but if he goes this low, what a great football player you're going to get.

 

Pick No.

28 Jake Locker QBWashington

No, the Patriots aren't drafting Jake Locker. Any of the teams at the bottom of the first round could be looking to trade out, including New England here. A QB such as Locker will be a prime target for a team looking to jump up. It’s not about the teams at this point, it’s about the players.

 

Pick No.

29 Jonathan Baldwin WRPittsburgh

The Bears want offensive or defensive line help, but at this point in the draft, those spots have been hit hard. If a trade down isn’t an option, they try to give Jay Cutler another target in the passing game. Baldwin is a talented wideout.

 

Pick No.

30 Akeem Ayers LBUCLA

The Jets desperately need an edge rusher out of this draft, and Ayers is one of the best available. Rex Ryan always believes he can get the best out of any player.

 

Pick No.

31 Aaron Williams DBTexas

Williams’ versatility fits the defensive scheme of Dick LeBeau. Williams is a confident corner who should be able to contribute immediately as a nickel back.

 

Pick No.

32 Andy Dalton QBTCU

Why not trade out of this spot and let another team trade in to take a QB like Andy Dalton at the end of the first round? There will be teams who would rather deal with the Packers here than working out a deal with the Patriots at the top of the second round at No. 33. At the end of the day, I think four quarterbacks go in the first round of the draft.

[Return Of S&B]

He is going over his mock on NFL network right now

[HowboutthemCowboys]

can someone save me the hassle of looking it up..how many teams pick tomorrow? Yes Im a lazy Ginsu

[Big John]

can someone save me the hassle of looking it up..how many teams pick tomorrow? Yes Im a lazy Ginsu

1st round only tomorrow - 32 picks. (less teams though through trades - currently at 31 as NE had OAK's pick))

Edited April 28, 2011 by Big John

[Seahawks21]

I can't see Cinci passing on Gabbert if he is still there. I also believe there will be a second run on QB's in the first round at some point.

[kpholmes]

Boy would Niner fans be furious if the Cards snatched Peterson from them instead of taking a rookie QB, picked up a veteran (Bulger aka Kurt 2.0 makes a lot of sense) and made a run at the playoffs this year...

 

I thought the Bengals were loving Simpson and Shipley as their future wideout stars?

[BearBroncos]

Pick No.

11 Robert Quinn DENorth Carolina

Jobs are on the line in Houston, and the Texans need to upgrade the defense. With Amukamara off the board, I think they turn to the rush linebacker position as they transition to a 3-4 defense. Quinn is the protoypical 3-4 option, and he’s got all kinds of upside. There is some risk involved because we’ve never seen him stand up and play in this scheme.

 

I'm not sure how I feel about this pick. They just moved Connor Barwin to OLB which I think will have a great impact in the new 3-4 defense.. Plus I own Barwin and am hoping for big things from him

[Caveman_Nick]

Boy would Niner fans be furious if the Cards snatched Peterson from them instead of taking a rookie QB, picked up a veteran (Bulger aka Kurt 2.0 makes a lot of sense) and made a run at the playoffs this year...

 

I thought the Bengals were loving Simpson and Shipley as their future wideout stars?

 

I think that's what's going to happen, and the 9ers are going to be drafting Prince....and he'll be fine.

[T-Scorp]

Do not see Locker getting past Vikings at 12. It would suprise me to see the Vikings take A Smith.

[Bronco Billy]

The problem with Mayock's philosophy in regard to DEN picking Miller instead of Dareus because of the availability of quality DLs in the draft:

 

I heard GM Brian Xanders interviewed yesterday and he stated that DEN has ever intention of trading down both the 36th and 46th pick to acquire some 4th round picks. They also expect to get lots of takers given this will likely be the territory where some QBs are going to fall and that ome teams who won't use a 1st rounder on a QB because of the question marks in this class will jump up to land one of those guys.

 

The interview was really very candid and enlightening, and it sounds like for once that there is lots of input from various sources on their draft board, that the board has been created through consensus of multiple parties, and that there has been some very deep and thorough research done to create it.

 

That doesn't preclude DEN from taking Miller - but if they do take Miller it is because they consider him the better player and not because of what could happen in terms of player availabilty later in the draft.

Edited April 28, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[BearBroncos]

The problem with Mayock's philosophy in regard to DEN picking Miller instead of Dareus because of the availability of quality DLs in the draft:

 

I heard GM Brian Xanders interviewed yesterday and he stated that DEN has ever intention of trading down both the 36th and 46th pick to acquire some 4th round picks. They also expect to get lots of takers given this will likely be the territory where some QBs are going to fall and that ome teams who won't use a 1st rounder on a QB because of the question marks in this class will jump up to land one of those guys.

 

The interview was really very candid and enlightening, and it sounds like for once that there is lots of input from various sources on their draft board, that the board has been created through consensus of multiple parties, and that there has been some very deep and thorough research done to create it.

 

That doesn't preclude DEN from taking Miller - but if they do take Miller it is because they consider him the better player and not because of what could happen in terms of player availabilty later in the draft.

 

I agree in a different sence. With Fox, Denver will be going back to a 4-3. Dumervil, from my udnerstanding (and it doesn't make sense) will go back to his DE duties but DJ Williams will be one of the primary LB and I think their not ready to jump ship on Robert Ayers. I just don't see that as a "Need" position for them considering Dumervil, if needed, could move back to LB which when he was, he was one of the most prodcut. I think they need more help in the tackle position, especially with the cutting of Jamall Williams and Justin Bannan, they need allot fo help to fill that 4-3.

 

I just can't see them picking Miller with several other, much more needed positions to fill.

[Caveman_Nick]

Scott Wright's last mock has them taking Von Miller as well. He had Miller at #3 for a long time and just moved him up for his final.

 

Take it FWIW.

[DallasMothership]

So do you all think that when forecasters are giving their mock drafts they are predicting what the teams will do or are they saying who they think is best? Mayock seems to be predicting what teams will do. Can he think that Newton will be a bust, but put him on top of his mock only because he thinks Carolina will take him? Seems to me a mock is more interesting if the forecaster is giving his opinion of who the team should take, not who the team will take.

[kpholmes]

So do you all think that when forecasters are giving their mock drafts they are predicting what the teams will do or are they saying who they think is best? Mayock seems to be predicting what teams will do. Can he think that Newton will be a bust, but put him on top of his mock only because he thinks Carolina will take him? Seems to me a mock is more interesting if the forecaster is giving his opinion of who the team should take, not who the team will take.

 

It's a mock draft.

 

They're predicting what will happen. And no one does it better than Mayock (See: Heyward-Bey, Alualu)

[DallasMothership]

It's a mock draft.

 

They're predicting what will happen. And no one does it better than Mayock (See: Heyward-Bey, Alualu)

 

If they are predicting what will happen, then Heyward Bey being a bust is irrelevant. If they are predicting what will happen, if Mayock predicted that the Raiders would draft him, then he would be spot on.

[kpholmes]

If they are predicting what will happen, then Heyward Bey being a bust is irrelevant. If they are predicting what will happen, if Mayock predicted that the Raiders would draft him, then he would be spot on.

 

He did predict Oakland would take DHB over Crabtree.

 

He also said last year that Jacksonville would reach on a 2nd-3rd round talent defensive tackle in Tyson Alualu and take him 10th overall.

[muck]

If it's true the this is the first mock draft he's ever published, IMO, he may lose some of the candor he'd had w/ NFL front offices.

[kpholmes]

If it's true the this is the first mock draft he's ever published, IMO, he may lose some of the candor he'd had w/ NFL front offices.

 

It's the first mock he's ever published because the lockout has made exceptions to his own rules. From last season:

"See I do one mock draft and it's the day of the draft, and the reason I do it that way is because free agency changes everything on a daily basis. A month before the draft, the pick that any teams needs is different once they sign a free agent, and their priorities are different. I think it's a great exercise…it's a great exchange of information. But when it comes to a mock draft itself, I try to set it up the way I think a team is going to do it. And the problem is when you have the amount of trades you did this year, all the mock drafts go right out the window."

 

This is a great read on what it's like year-round living the life of Mike Mayock.