Mahomes vs Allen stats???

[Big Dogs]

Can someone help me understand why the experts still have Mahomes ranked ahead of Allen for this season.  Granted, I do NOT question Mahomes superman/ superhuman like capabilities.  Mahomes has Kelce.  Allen has Diggs.  Beyond that, I put the Buffalo WR's & RB's ahead of all other pass catchers (RB&WR's) for KC. 

And Allen has a much more favorability in Buffalo's overall strength of schedule for the year, the first 6 games, and in the playoffs.  Combine that with Allen's ability to run more so than Patrick and I think he has better weapons. 

I have trouble projecting Mahomes over Allen, but I'm very stat driven, so I would love to hear everyone else thoughts?

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Big Dogs

[gijoerock]

Rankings vs Stats may not always equal our likings. Are you evaluating real world or fantasy stats?

[Shaft]

The stats you share have Mahomes over Allen. Allen has the advantage in rushing, but most would put Mahomes over Allen because of his past stats and KC offense.

[Big Dogs]

Evaluating for fantasy stats.  Have the 2nd overall pick in a couple PPR drafts so far (which is weird it worked out that way), and looking at either one of them in the end of 2 or early 3 as a potential strategy.  I normally wait at QB, but considering going big early with one of them, and if I'm going to pull that trigger, I'm just trying to make the best decision.  I have several weeks before either draft, but studying this scenario now.  

 

[gijoerock]

I would choose Allen over Mahomes 9 out of 10 drafts based on his rushing abilities. As for PPR, it all depends on your scoring settings. Good luck Brother.

Side note: I wouldn't take either QB because in rounds 6 - 10 the marginal difference in points is not that great for Mahomes or Allen.

10-Team league

Edited August 11, 2023 by gijoerock
Updated

[Bobby Brown]

- I'm not sure I agree that Buf pass catchers are substantially better the KCs, it's not something I'd personally factor in to a decision between the two.  

- There has been talk about Allen not running as much. 

- I would put Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts the the 1st tier of QBs.  Gun to my head today, I would go with Hurts out of those three as I think he will be running more. 

- Not sure you go can go 'wrong' with any of the three, it seems like most projections on these guys are splitting hairs. 

[Big Dogs]

2 minutes ago, gijoerock said:

I would choose Allen over Mahomes 9 out of 10 drafts based on his rushing abilities. As for PPR, it all depends on your scoring settings. Good luck Brother.

Side note: I wouldn't take either QB because in rounds 6 - 10 the marginal difference in points is not that great for Mahomes or Allen.

10-Team league

These are 12 team leagues, and my normal strategy is to take a QB late, but testing the theory on taking it early.  I'm asking about this as it's been over a decade since I thought about taking a qb this early

 

[gijoerock]

24 minutes ago, Big Dogs said:

These are 12 team leagues, and my normal strategy is to take a QB late, but testing the theory on taking it early.  I'm asking about this as it's been over a decade since I thought about taking a qb this early

 

Conduct a few mock drafts and grab your high volume receivers first and foremost. I'm not putting alot of effort behind drafting RB's early this year only if they run, pass, and catch 😁. Keep us posted on your mock draft results.

Tier 2 QB's are getting the job done.

Snapshot of round #3 in 12-Team mock draft.

Edited August 11, 2023 by gijoerock
Updated

[irish]

Simple answer, I don't have Mahomes ranked ahead of Allen.  I have both Allen and Hurts above him.   

Oh and wait on taking a QB. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by irish

[stevegrab]

The projected stats provided by the OP have Mahomes just 8 points ahead of Allen, over 17 games. That' less than half a point per game, Allen stats are 98.3% of Mahomes.

We are definitely splitting hairs on who is "better". I agree that Allen will probably run less this year. Mahomes has done it longer and more consistently. Hurts is great, but runs a lot and will eventually get hurt. 

As for where to draft a QB in a redraft, I'll leave that to those who play in those leagues, all these QBs and more are keepers in our league. 

[Big Country]

As @Bobby Brownsaid, you can pretty much toss Mahomes/Allen/Hurts into a bag and draw a name - you can logically argue for any of them being your QB1 and it would be hard to refute that argument. In best ball, where things like correlation and stacking matter a lot more, the decision will largely be influenced by who you took in the 1st round. These 3 QBs will usually go between the mid 2nd and the mid 3rd. Occasionally Lamar Jackson sneaks in ahead of 1 of them, but he is usually your QB4 taken in the late 3rd. He is kind of the sole Tier 2 QB. Your Tier 3 is basically Burrow/Fields/Herbert/Lawrence who tend to go between early 5th and mid 6th.

After that is a fairly decent sized ADP gap.

Your typical redraft league will likely see slightly depressed QB ADP, but the general trend this year has been a fairly large jump in normal QB ADP.

As for general strategy, a lot will depend on your league and the owners draft tendencies. I'm usually one of the biggest wait on QB proponents on the board here, but based on my projections, it seems like I may be trying to target one of those tier 3 type QBs depending on my draft slot and the flow of the draft. I tend to fade RB a bit and while I don't go full on zero RB in most managed leagues, this year with how RBs seem to be falling, I'm more inclined to target a higher tier QB in the 4th/5th round over going RB there, and instead will be targeting some of the RBs that are falling into the 6th-8th round.

Again. so much of this is league dependent - what are owners tendencies, what is league size, lineup requirements, scoring system - that an approach in one setup may be very wrong for a different league.