Niners trying to trade for Phillip Rivers?

[9ersdude]

This site says the Niners are "rumored" to be offering their 1st round draft pick in exchange for San Diego's QB of the future, Phillip Rivers. (link to site below) Sounds far fetched, but at the same time interesting. Brees played well last season and the chargers who don't need a running back could take a top wideout like Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams with the pick.

 

Football Rumors

[Jackass]

This site says the Niners are "rumored" to be offering their 1st round draft pick in exchange for San Diego's QB of the future, Phillip Rivers. (link to site below) Sounds far fetched, but at the same time interesting. Brees played well last season and the chargers who don't need a running back could take a top wideout like Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams with the pick.

 

Football Rumors

 

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In some ways, that might make sense. Aren't there cap implications that would prevent this though?

[Blue Cross]

In some ways, that might make sense.  Aren't there cap implications that would prevent this though?

 

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The link also says that "The biggest flaw in this one, as we see it, is that the "option" portion of Rivers' 2004 signing bonus was due on March 10, which means that the cap hit resulting from a trade would be much larger than it would have been if the trade had occurred before March 10....

 

The Chargers, on the other hand, might be willing to take the cap hit if they can make the team a lot better. The rumored trade would give the Chargers three first-round picks in the upcoming draft -- not bad for a team that was 12-4 last year".

 

Hey Chargerz, what do you think?

[Jumpin Johnies]

Thanks 9ers Dude.

[Big Red]

The Chargers, on the other hand, might be willing to take the cap hit if they can make the team a lot better.  The rumored trade would give the Chargers three first-round picks in the upcoming draft -- not bad for a team that was 12-4 last year".

 

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That would probably be a big cap hit.

 

If this does happen, they'll have turned last year's first rounder into a first rounder last year, a first rounder this year and what eve first rounder(s)/pick(s) they get out of this. Not bad for Eli.

[Vote Quimby2]

The rumored trade would give the Chargers three first-round picks in the upcoming draft -- not bad for a team that was 12-4 last year".

 

Hey Chargerz, what do you think?

 

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This is the same team that has a tough time signing just one first rounder to a contract every year. Can't imagine when they have three sitting out the whole summer .

[Jumpin Johnies]

That would probably be a big cap hit.

 

If this does happen, they'll have turned last year's first rounder into a first rounder last year, a first rounder this year and what eve first rounder(s)/pick(s) they get out of this.  Not bad for Eli.

 

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Yeah these guys have been looking pretty smart over the last year or so.

[Dr. Rock]

That's huge.. a playoff team with good young stars getting out of an incredibly tough situation and with 3 first rounders? I'll admit I don't know the cap implications, but I couldn't see how it'd be much worse than having a highly paid QB sitting on the bench.

[Jumpin Johnies]

That's huge.. a playoff team with good young stars getting out of an incredibly tough situation and with 3 first rounders? I'll admit I don't know the cap implications, but I couldn't see how it'd be much worse than having a highly paid QB sitting on the bench.

 

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True dat. I see Mr. Dorey lurking maybe he has some insight.

[Dr. Rock]

Think about it.. draft Braylon Edwards #1. Draft a DE like Erasmus James at #12 (NYG pick) and then a CB at their own pick.. what a team this could be.

[Jumpin Johnies]

Think about it.. draft Braylon Edwards #1. Draft a DE like Erasmus James at #12 (NYG pick) and then a CB at their own pick.. what a team this could be.

 

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What corner would be available at their pick?

[Dr. Rock]

What corner would be available at their pick?

 

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Okay, I don't know. Maybe they could snag Edwards with #1, and package their #12 (NYG) and their own (late 20s) to the Vikes, and move up to #7 and get either Alex Barron or Derrick Johnson.

[policyvote]

In some ways, that might make sense.  Aren't there cap implications that would prevent this though?

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Uh, last I heard, the Chargers had like $20M of cap room to throw around . . . they could absorb Rivers' hit if they really wanted to.

 

Peace

policy

[REZ]

I'd rather have Rodgers personally.

I'm not a big fan of Rivers.

[Jumpin Johnies]

Uh, last I heard, the Chargers had like $20M of cap room to throw around . . . they could absorb Rivers' hit if they really wanted to.

 

Peace

policy

 

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Always dropping knowledge.

[Chargerz]

It's an interesting possibility. My gut feeling is that it won't happen. Marty has man-love for Rivers and would probably have a melt-down if Rivers got traded. It's still A.J.'s decision to make, and with the cap room available to the team he might pull the trigger. The niners may also have to sweeten the pot a little more if they REALLY want Rivers. We'll see!!!

[Jo]

Read an article by some scout that said all Eli, Big Ben and Rivers all had better pre-draft grades than any QBs in this year's class, so you never know. If the 49ers agree with that, might as well offer up the #1 pick for Rivers and see what happens.

[Jumpin Johnies]

Read an article by some scout that said all Eli, Big Ben and Rivers all had better pre-draft grades than any QBs in this year's class, so you never know.  If the 49ers agree with that, might as well offer up the #1 pick for Rivers and see what happens.

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Where did the article come from?

[Jo]

From ESPN Insider. The date on the article says March 22, but I know I read it before that, so I don't know whether this was before or after the individual workouts:

 

"Few quarterback classes can compare with last year's, and this won't be one of them. There are two probable top-10 prospects in the group, but neither Aaron Rodgers (Cal) nor Alex Smith (Utah) would have gone ahead of the top three quarterbacks selected in 2004 – Eli Manning (Giants), Philip Rivers (Chargers) and Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers).

 

Rodgers has elite arm strength and is further along in his development than Kyle Boller was when he left coach Jeff Tedford, but Rodgers doesn't have great size and there are some understandable concerns that he's a product of a passer-friendly system. Those same concerns exist for Smith, who played not only in a wide-open offense at Utah but also in a scheme that primarily used the shotgun.

 

Smith is a better athlete than Rodgers and has better size, but Smith doesn't have nearly the arm strength Rodgers possesses. In my opinion, both are mid-first-round prospects and Rodgers grades out slightly better when comparing their overall NFL potential.

 

After Smith and Rodgers, there's a group of four quarterbacks vying for the No. 3 spot – Jason Campbell (Auburn), Charlie Frye (Akron), Andrew Walter (Arizona State) and Kyle Orton (Purdue).

 

 

Campbell's emergence as a senior was reminiscent of Carson Palmer's in 2002-03, and Campbell put on a similarly impressive showing at the Senior Bowl. With so much momentum in his favor right now, he has to be the odds-on favorite of the group.

 

Frye finished strong after a slow start under a new coaching staff, and his MVP performance in the Senior Bowl certainly won't hurt his chances on draft day.

 

Walter might have the most upside of the group, but his career at Arizona State was somewhat of a roller coaster. The shoulder injury he suffered in the regular-season finale against Arizona required surgery and set him back during the postseason draft process.

 

Nobody had more peaks and valleys than Orton in 2004. After being one of the hottest quarterbacks in the nation in the first half of the season, Orton cooled off considerably in the second half, which can partially be blamed on a lingering hip injury.

 

Derek Anderson and David Greene are fringe Day 1 prospects who had tremendously productive college careers at the highest level. Greene became the winningest quarterback in Division I-A history with 42 career victories at Georgia, breaking the mark of 39 set by Tennessee's Peyton Manning. Anderson wasn't nearly as successful at Oregon State, but his NFL upside is greater thanks to his outstanding size and arm strength.

 

Timmy Chang (Hawaii) broke Ty Detmer's NCAA Division I-A record for career passing yardage, but so much of his success was a byproduct of the system in which he played, that he'll likely slip to the middle rounds. Other hugely successful collegiate quarterbacks who will slide to Day 2 include Dan Orlovsky (Connecticut), Jason White (Oklahoma) and Bryan Randall (Virginia Tech).

 

This year's group of quarterbacks has its fair share of story lines, as well. Adrian McPherson became the first athlete to win "Mr. Football" and "Mr. Basketball" as a high school athlete in the state of Florida and was well on his way to a successful career as a sophomore starter at Florida State before his well-publicized gambling scandal.

 

He has matured since then and has developed his passing skills in the Arena Football League, but how high a pick will NFL teams be willing to use on a prospect with so many red flags? Chris Rix is another Seminole quarterback with loads of talent but questionable character and intelligence. It seems ironic that McPherson will wind up getting drafted ahead of Rix, who started several games in each of his four seasons in Tallahassee.

 

 

Fitzpatrick (Harvard) and Stefan LeFors (Louisville) both lack ideal NFL measurables but are middle-round sleepers to keep an eye on.

 

This year's quarterback class also has an abundance of athletes who could very easily be forced to move positions to make it in the NFL. Those include Matt Jones (Arkansas), Walter Washington (Temple), Darian Durant (North Carolina), Shane Boyd (Kentucky) and Joshua Cribbs (Kent State).

 

There are also several small-school late-round prospects with some developmental upside, including Dustin Long (Sam Houston State), Craig Ochs (Montana), Jared Allen (Florida Atlantic), James Kilian (Tulsa) and Ben Dougherty (Florida A&M). "

[Jumpin Johnies]

Thanks Jo.

[Vote Quimby2]

This year's group of quarterbacks has its fair share of story lines, as well. Adrian McPherson became the first athlete to win "Mr. Football" and "Mr. Basketball" as a high school athlete in the state of Florida and was well on his way to a successful career as a sophomore starter at Florida State before his well-publicized gambling scandal.

 

He has matured since then and has developed his passing skills in the Arena Football League, but how high a pick will NFL teams be willing to use on a prospect with so many red flags? Chris Rix is another Seminole quarterback with loads of talent but questionable character and intelligence. It seems ironic that McPherson will wind up getting drafted ahead of Rix, who started several games in each of his four seasons in Tallahassee.

 

I am real curious to see how McPherson pans out and just glad Rix is gone.

[Rovers]

There is some depth at CB this year, if not in the safety position.... there should be some quality CB's left if SD ends up with 3 first round picks. Intruiging scenario....

[McBoog]

It's an interesting possibility. My gut feeling is that it won't happen. Marty has man-love for Rivers and would probably have a melt-down if Rivers got traded. It's still A.J.'s decision to make, and with the cap room available to the team he might pull the trigger. The niners may also have to sweeten the pot a little more if they REALLY want Rivers. We'll see!!! 

 

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Man-love

 

I’m with Chargerz! I really doubt that this will happen. As discussed before in other threads, Rivers has the tools that Brees doesn’t, and the QBs coming out this, next and possibly three years from now do not match what came out last year and you reset the learning clock to zero. AJ is really high on the kid as well as Marty.

 

The cap hit would be huge and would eat a large portion of that 20 mil. AJ likes to have the space to pick up that “guy” if he needs to. He is not worried about paying for a player, but that player better be the one that is the piece that wins the championship. The way they are running this thing in the Patriots model, i.e. no one player is bigger than the team, I don’t see that happening.

 

Rivers will sign a six-year contract and ESPN.com has confirmed that the base value is $41 million. The deal includes roughly $18 million-$19 million in guaranteed money ($14.275 million signing bonus plus other guarantees) and an additional $11 million in incentives.

 

The bonus is pro-rated over the life of the contract, in this case, six years. The Chargers cap hit for the bonus is a little less than 2.4 million per year. That means that if the Chargers were to trade/cut/lose Rivers this year, approximately $12 million would “accelerate” against this years cap. That would also add to whatever roster bonus he has received since March 10. Take that $12 mil and add it to the 8 mil Breeser gets for his one year FA deal, and you just ate 20 million on two players and one position! Now, and I am not that up on the “rookie cap”, and try to add three first round salaries to that number, an team that was cap happy is now cap strapped, at least for this year.

 

Lets look at that factor and consider is this. What are the Chargers going to do with the salary of yet another #1 overall. I don’t think the player picked will publicly declare that they don’t want to come to San Diego anymore after the apparent turn around from last year, but what is the value of the guys that are there in the top 5 to 7 players? I have heard and read a few articles talking about how this is a thinner draft at the top 20 or so players than in the past. Not so much in talent, but in comparable skill levels. There just aren’t any major standouts, especially on defense where the Chargers need the most help. Yeh, the WRs are attractive, but will be there a few picks lower as well. Are any of these guys the value that Rivers was last year? I think not. Chargerz is right when he says that SF would have to sweeten the pot.

 

I also think that carrying all those first rounder salaries would cut too deeply into AJ’s comfort zone/cap space especially if one was the #1 overall (who would want more money than Eli got last year and is not worth that kind of payday). IF my Bolts were to pull this trigger (I hope not, I differ from an above post and really like Rivers), I would think that they would be better off trading down for this pick and get a couple 2s or 3s as well as a lower #1. They could go down as far as maybe 7, still grab an awesome player, get even more out of the deal (from whatever SF threw in the pot on top of the #1) and have a lot less $ tied up in a top guy that is not clearly the top guy, and walk away still with three of the top 30 guys in the draft (that be 10%).

 

If Brees has another year like last, look for the Chargers to protect him again and then trade him for a #1, he will prove then he is worth it and they had the reighns to Rivers.

 

I just don’t see this trade happening. My 2 cents.