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Gronkowski's ADP next year


nelsosi
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In one of my leagues, we only keep 3 players and the Gronk owner is (perhaps rightfully) considering keeping him over McFadden. This got me to thinking --- how early is too early to draft Gronk next year?

Edited by nelsosi
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#2 overall, right behind Tebow.

 

Seriously, though he is probably a first rounder in TE leagues. He produces like a WR1 as a TE.

 

Fix that.. Dude produces like a RB1.

 

No wr in the league even comes close to his production.

 

I would spend a late 1st round pick on him if all the rbs I wanted were gone.

Edited by gbpackersfan
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Fix that.. Dude produces like a RB1.

 

No wr in the league even comes close to his production.

 

I would spend a late 1st round pick on him if all the rbs I wanted were gone.

 

Yeah, it's pretty crazy, obviously based on league scoring this will vary a little, but in my local, out of all RB's, WR's and TE's, they finished like this:

 

1. LeSean McCoy - 159

2. Gronkowski - 142

3. Ray Rice - 139

4. Arian Foster - 138 - he would be up with McCoy had he not missed time

5. Calvin Johsnon - 129

6. Wes Welker - 124

 

Even in a non TE league that puts him easily in the top 5, in a TE mandatory he could clearly be considered the #1 pick overall. :wacko:

 

My concern is that the Patriots defense seems to constantly evolve and change, and if that happens he could end up with a totally different scheme in this offense. I'm sure Pats homers would have more insight, but that JMHO.

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I can probably safely say he will be drafted much earlier than I would be willing to take him.

 

+1

 

I'd love to have him on my team, but I wouldn't expect historic production for a 2nd straight year. Then again, dude is a best, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit, either.

 

Someone will need to spend a low 1st rounder on him....the same way they would on Roddy White, Andre Johnson, etc this past year.

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In my local Gronk is the #1 player (non QB and non DST).

 

That said, I am not sure I take him over what I think is a top tier RB. There are a couple of reasons for that.

 

#1 TEs historically do not perform at that high of a level year in and year out.

#2 I am not sure I want to spend an early pick on a Patriots player not named Tom Brady. Welker's been pretty consistant this year, but last year he was the #24 WR, and in 09 he was #11. In 2008 he's #19 and in 2007 he's #11. I think about him in the third round.

Edited by Caveman_Nick
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Yeah, it's pretty crazy, obviously based on league scoring this will vary a little, but in my local, out of all RB's, WR's and TE's, they finished like this:

 

1. LeSean McCoy - 159

2. Gronkowski - 142

3. Ray Rice - 139

4. Arian Foster - 138 - he would be up with McCoy had he not missed time

5. Calvin Johsnon - 129

6. Wes Welker - 124

 

Even in a non TE league that puts him easily in the top 5, in a TE mandatory he could clearly be considered the #1 pick overall. :wacko:

 

My concern is that the Patriots defense seems to constantly evolve and change, and if that happens he could end up with a totally different scheme in this offense. I'm sure Pats homers would have more insight, but that JMHO.

Wait, I thought we established that Calvin Johnson sucked? :tup:

 

No way I take a TE until the 3rd-4th round, and even then it has to be the "perfect storm" type of situation.

 

Fortunately I own him in a dynasty and I'll be damned if I let him go in RFA.

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Just going to add this: one philosophy I always carry with me (not that this is a secret or ground-breaking) is to draft QB/WR/TE on teams with a high-powered offense and terrible defense (reasons should be obvious). This would land Brady/Welker/Gronk right at the top of their respective positions. This brings me to Hugh 0ne's point; if the Patriots decide to play defense next year then all of their numbers could be considerably lower.

 

Just my two cents.

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Just going to add this: one philosophy I always carry with me (not that this is a secret or ground-breaking) is to draft QB/WR/TE on teams with a high-powered offense and terrible defense (reasons should be obvious). This would land Brady/Welker/Gronk right at the top of their respective positions. This brings me to Hugh 0ne's point; if the Patriots decide to play defense next year then all of their numbers could be considerably lower.

 

Just my two cents.

 

Could be ....... but, I'd venture that Welker will still be North of 100 grabs regardless of the defense.

 

:wacko:

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one philosophy I always carry with me (not that this is a secret or ground-breaking) is to draft QB/WR/TE on teams with a high-powered offense and terrible defense

 

Yeah, but defenses are generally very hard to predict in the summer...most of the cheatsheets that I saw back in July/August 2011 had the Patriots ranked in the top 10-12 overall. Hardly what I'd call terrible back then...

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I've never seen a dude with the size and speed of Gronk tiptoeing down the sidelines and staying in bounds all the way down the field for a touchdown. Never.

Gronk reminds me of an upgraded version of Jermaine Wiggins!

 

I still would not take a TE in the 1st or 2nd round. Third would be the earliest and if he keeps up on this pace, I won't be able to get hm at that point.

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I'd love to have him on my team, but I wouldn't expect historic production for a 2nd straight year. Then again, dude is a best, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit, either.

Likely not a repeat at historic production levels, but there's also no reason to believe this year is a fluke for Gronk (or Graham). The potential for both of them was visible in the latter half of last season. Both are young, physically gifted and play in high-octane offenses -- even at some regressions, the floor seems pretty high.

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I actually think he'll be better next season, at least more consistent as he's just really come on these past 5-6 weeks. Kinda like Randy Moss a few seasons ago, once Bill finds a weapon like that he likes to shove it up everyone's a-hole repeatedly for 60 minutes each weekend.

Edited by ABearWithFurniture
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