Draft Strategies a changing

[kryptonite]

From CBSSportsline....thoughts? Are the RB/RB/WR/QB days over?

 

Here are the results from last week's question: Now that superstar WR Randy Moss is in Oakland, who would you select first in drafts next season: Daunte Culpepper or Donovan McNabb?

 

1. Donovan McNabb (59 percent)

2. Daunte Culpepper (41 percent)

 

 

Throughout the annals of the National Football League, an effective running game and a steadfast defense have been the formula for success. Teams like the 1985 Chicago Bears -- led by Walter Payton's 1,551 yards and Buddy Ryan's aggressive 46 defense -- highlight a plethora of champions to utilize this formula in the Super Bowl era.

 

The Dallas Cowboys rode it to success in the 1990s with a formidable defense and future Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith, who led the team to three Super Bowl titles in four seasons. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who might have fielded the greatest defense ever, also rode a running back, Jamal Lewis, to a path that led to the Vince Lombardi trophy.

 

Not surprisingly, one aspect of that formula has also been utilized in Fantasy Football: Running backs have become the most valued assets.

 

 

Kevin Jones rushed for 1,133 yards and five TDs as a rookie. (Getty Images)

This is a fact that's proven season after season in drafts flooded with backs in the first three rounds. It's the reason we feel the need to "insure" our studs with reserves that might never even see the field. It's also the reason we've taken chances on unknowns like Larry Croom, Arlen Harris and Mewelde Moore.

 

But for the first time in what seems like forever, running backs won't be as prominent in the first three rounds. The reason is simple: The position has gained immense depth -- more depth than can be remembered in recent seasons -- while quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends have developed into more valuable commodities in a league that has become more dependent on the pass.

 

The overall level of production from the quarterback position exploded last season -- 12 field generals threw for more than 3,500 yards for the first time since 1995 -- but none were more prominent than the trio of Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb.

 

Manning shattered Dan Marino's record for passing touchdowns in a single season with 49 and threw for an impressive 4,557 yards. Culpepper threw for a league-best 4,717 yards with 39 touchdowns and finished second among quarterbacks with 406 rushing yards. McNabb, who thrived with the addition of Terrell Owens, finished with 3,875 yards and 34 total touchdowns.

 

In most drafts, Manning, Culpepper and McNabb will be selected in the first round. When you add wide receivers like Owens, Randy Moss and Torry Holt into the mix, there's a chance that more than half of the first-round selections in 12-team drafts will NOT be running backs.

 

That's an enormous switch from last season, when more than 90 percent of the first rounders selected in most formats were running backs. In the Gridiron Guru League draft, for example, 11 of the first 12 overall selections were running backs. The one owner who did not choose a back, Jim Nantz, instead went with a wide receiver, Marvin Harrison.

 

Nantz went on to win the GGL title.

 

This increase in value at the quarterback and receiver positions will mean a swell in the number of valuable running backs still on the board in Rounds 2-4. In fact, studs like Rudi Johnson (1,454 yards, 12 TDs) and Tiki Barber (1,518 yards, 12 TDs) might even be available in Round 3.

 

Furthermore, backs with immense potential such as Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones and LaMont Jordan could be available in Rounds 4-5. This would have been unheard of in the past, especially when you consider that all six have a chance to rush for 1,250-plus yards and eight to 10 touchdowns.

 

Another reason that the value of running backs will decrease is the increase of production from the tight end position. Stars like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates warrant consideration in the first three rounds, while Todd Heap, Jason Witten and Alge Crumpler also have more value than in the past.

 

The rise in production at tight end seems to have decreased reception totals for running backs. In fact, a total of 14 backs had 40-plus receptions last season -- that's seven fewer than 2003 and 10 fewer than 2002. Brian Westbrook (73) and Domanick Davis (68) were the only two backs to record more than 60 receptions -- a combined 14 backs accomplished that feat in the previous two seasons.

 

The bottom line: Running backs will remain valuable and prominent in the first several rounds next season, but owners won't have to make "stretch" selections to insure a productive backfield. In fact, the new trend of impressive pass attacks and the dawn of the five-yard illegal touch rule could put an end to strategies that require owners to select three running backs in the first three rounds.

 

 

[loaf]

that may be true but as long as my League starts 2/3 RBs (one as a flex), I will continue to draft RBs first and foremost. I only start 1 QB so hopefully the add'l points I gain from 3 top notch RBs will overcome not having one of the Big Three at QB...

[The Irish Doggy]

I think many of us have already come to the conclusions in that article. It seems like every team in the league projects to have a genuine #1 RB next year. As such, in the typical 12 team, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/K/D league, sure the RBs won't be as hugh.

 

But I don't know about half the first round being non-RBs. I doubt McNabb is a 1st rounder to most outside Philly. The more bad press Owens gets the more that will hurt Donovan IMO. There will be people who shy away from Culpepper now that Moss is gone too. Even though he still had some big games without Moss. He might still make it in the bottom of the first. So that only leaves Manning as a true first rounder IMO and a top 3 pick probably.

 

Moss and Owens will go in the first, but I think Holt, Harrison, CJ, etc. are 2nd rounders. The first round should still be dominated by the stud RBs. Everyone will want their potential 2000 total yards & 15+ TD RB.

 

I expect you will be able to get a pretty decent #2 RB in round 4 and maybe 5 though.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Although this is something I realized myself recently, that article is the 1st one I've read about it. Almost every team in the league as a featured RB with lots of upside. The only exceptions will be Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta.

[godtomsatan]

I disagree. There are 24 RBs starting every weekend in a 12 team FF league (even with a flex position). There are only 12 QBs starting.

 

There is simply more depth available at the QB position than there is at RB, meaning there is less of a premium on them in the early rounds.

 

That isn't to say Manning and Culpepper and even McNabb aren't 1st Round pick worthy, just that Jake Plummer is not.

[AtomicCEO]

It's also the reason we've taken chances on unknowns like Larry Croom

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I have him in Fusion...

 

He's in NFL Europe now...

[trrhyne]

There may be more teams with only one featured back this year, however, RB's take a pounding and they get injured. Also, there have been many instances where a rookie RB or free agent shows promise at the end of the season, gets labled as a stud, and then flops or gets injured early the next year. Do the names William Green, Quintin Griffin, Kevan Barlow, Trung Candadite, Lamar Gordan ring a bell? Grab a stud who has consistantly produced. No WR should be taken in the 1st round and other than Manning, McNabb, and Culpepper, no QB should be considered.

[Chargerz]

No WR should be taken in the 1st round and other than Manning, McNabb, and Culpepper, no QB should be considered.

 

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Moss and Owens are the exceptions to this statement.

Edited April 13, 2005 by Chargerz

[major-tom]

"This increase in value at the quarterback and receiver positions will mean a swell in the number of valuable running backs still on the board in Rounds 2-4. In fact, studs like Rudi Johnson (1,454 yards, 12 TDs) and Tiki Barber (1,518 yards, 12 TDs) might even be available in Round 3.

Furthermore, backs with immense potential such as Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones and LaMont Jordan could be available in Rounds 4-5. This would have been unheard of in the past, especially when you consider that all six have a chance to rush for 1,250-plus yards and eight to 10 touchdowns."

 

 

I realize there is more depth at the running back position and some pretty good ones will drop is some leagues. However if Rudi and Tiki slip to round 3 or T. Bell, J. Jones, or K. Jones slip to rounds 4 or 5 I just hope I am in those leagues' draft.

[policyvote]

I've been rolling with QBs and WRs in most of my leagues for the past few years, thanks to the hilarious overuse of the "Stud RB theory". Sounds like this year I'll be going back to RBs to counter the trends and get the best value.

 

Peace

policy

[Controller]

I've been rolling with QBs and WRs in most of my leagues for the past few years, thanks to the hilarious overuse of the "Stud RB theory".  Sounds like this year I'll be going back to RBs to counter the trends and get the best value.

 

Peace

policy

 

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: dr.phil: How's that been working out for y'all? :/dr.,phil:

Edited April 13, 2005 by Controller

[policyvote]

: dr.phil: How's that been working out for y'all? :/dr.,phil:

 

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* In 2003, won the division, #1 seed in playoffs, and won the championship game of my auction keeper MML starting:

 

QB: Trent Green

 

RB: Edgerrin James

 

WR: Hines Ward

WR: Chad Johnson

WR: Joe Horn/K-Rob

 

* In 2004, made round two of the playoffs in same auction keeper MML starting:

 

QB: D. McNabb

 

RB: T. Barber (lucked out big time here)

 

WR: Hines Ward

WR: Chad Johnson

WR: Justin McCareins

 

. . . and went 12-1 and lost in the championship game of my work league with:

 

QB: D. McNabb

 

RB: L. Suggs

 

WR: T. Owens

WR: A. Johnson

WR: some other good WR, can't remember.

 

Bottom line is that the QB/WR strategy has been VERY kind to me over the past couple seasons.

 

Peace

policy

[I Like Soup]

I've thought about this too when one of the new guys in our league drafted Manning with the first overall pick...and made the playoffs.

 

Of course, his RBs were a shambles (he was scrambling every week) but only a Marino-esque season by Manning kept him in things. Our league is a 10 team 1 QB 2 RBs 1 FLex 2 WRs, etc. so people with RB depth overtook him.

[MikesVikes]

Consider the source.

[policyvote]

Consider the source.

 

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Right, that's why they're three years behind the times. As noted in the posts above, I've been pimping the QB/WR strategy for quite a while now; the "stud RB theory" has been strip-mined to the point of uselessness. When the first ten picks of a twelve-team draft are all RBs, how many of those suckers are actually going to end up with a competitive advantage?

 

Peace

policy