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Tatum Bell - What shot does he have at starting?


FightingEvil
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Probably going to have to agree here.

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The only reason to keep Bell and not Barlow is that you can still acquire Barlow in a later round; the same is not true for Bell.

 

However, I'll bet a dozen jelly donuts that Barlow comes within 10% of Bell's fantasy produciton this year. Heck, depending on how early in the season Bell gets hurt, Barlow may even exceed Bell's production.

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The only reason to keep Bell and not Barlow is that you can still acquire Barlow in a later round; the same is not true for Bell.

 

However, I'll bet a dozen jelly donuts that Barlow comes within 10% of Bell's fantasy produciton this year.  Heck, depending on how early in the season Bell gets hurt, Barlow may even exceed Bell's production.

 

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So are you saying that Bell will either get hurt or not be the starter or are you actually suggesting that Barlow will be any good this year? Personally I see no reason really why Bell won't eventually be named the starter & if so Barlow won't even come close to his numbers. I hope you're not basing that on the odds of Bell getting hurt. I do agree though that Barlow can be had much later, but I also believe that he will be on a short leash this year with Gore hanging about.

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So are you saying that Bell will either get hurt or not be the starter or are you actually suggesting that Barlow will be any good this year? Personally I see no reason really why Bell won't eventually be named the starter & if so Barlow won't even come close to his numbers. I hope you're not basing that on the odds of Bell getting hurt. I do agree though that Barlow can be had much later, but I also believe that he will be on a short leash this year with Gore hanging about.

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I'm certainly not wishing any harm on Bell. But he, like so many Denver backs over the last two seasons, has gotten himself nicked up and lost playing time while another RB secured the starting gig. So I have little faith in Bell's ability to: (1) lock down the starting job early in the season; *and* (2) maintain his hold on that spot for the majority of the season.

 

You do realize that he's only ever had one truely stellar game? And that he has NEVER handled more than 17 carries in a single game. For a RB with durability concerns, Bell doesn't exactly have a track record of: (1) holding up to every-down work; or (2) carrying a heavy load for an extended period. And that's a risky combo for a pick in the first three rounds.

 

Barlow, on the other hand, found Jesus (in a manner of speaking) and is committed to being the back this year that everyone thought he was gonna be last year. New coaching, new blocking schemes, improvements on the O-line, and a better attitude give Barlow (at least in my opinion) better odds of being the starter for the majority of the season, relative to Bell. Barlow has taken on an ever-increasing number of carries in each of the last four years without incurring a major injury. His lack of success last year could be attributed equally, in my opinion, to his lack of heart, bad coaching, and a sucktacular supporting cast that allowed DEF's to focus primarily on stopping the run. Well, two out of those three detractors aren't going to be a problem this year, in my estimation.

 

Yeah, Denver's line is waaaay better than the Niners'. Yeah, Bell is talented. But I think Barlow taking 80% of the Niner's carries would result in more fantasy production than Bell taking 50% of the Bronco's. In addition, SF has a substantially easier rushing schedule than Denver (the Bronco's schedule is brutal this year), not to mention a rookie QB who most likely will not be able to carry the offensive load for the team. That just smells like more opportunties for Barlow, to me. Bell may end up having a better ypc, or perhaps being more productive in those games he actually plays. But as far of end of season stats go, I still maintain that Barlow will come within 10% of Bell's fantasy production, assuming he doesn't exeed it.

Edited by yo mama
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Glad to see I'm not the only Barlow believer out there. I think he's going to have a decent year. There's too many uncertainties with Denver's backfield.   I wouldn't want Kevan as my #1 mind you, but he should/could emerge into a decent #2.

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Heck, I'm thinking more along the lines of Barlow as an early #3 RB; perhaps a 5th rounder? Heck, Antsports has him at around 6.1 in a 12 team league. Yeah, Frank Gore becomes a "must handcuff" player, but since you can get Gore pretty late in the draft you can still afford to reach for him a round or two early without funking up your draft.

Edited by yo mama
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I like to grab RBs who are guaranteed starters. I hate situations like they have in Denver. I think Barlow could emerge into a good option this year. His attitude is right, and he's got the ability. I really don't know who could have succeeded in SF last year anyways, unless your name's LT.

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Glad to see I'm not the only Barlow believer out there. I think he's going to have a decent year. There's too many uncertainties with Denver's backfield.  I wouldn't want Kevan as my #1 mind you, but he should/could emerge into a decent #2.

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From training camp so far his attitude is better and he is working hard. He should interest owners at this point. Maybe a #3.

 

Even Fred Taylor had a few good seasons, don't count Bell out yet. I see them both as #3's.

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I'm certainly not wishing any harm on Bell.  But he, like so many Denver backs over the last two seasons, has gotten himself nicked up and lost playing time while another RB secured the starting gig.  So I have little faith in Bell's ability to: (1) lock down the starting job early in the season; *and* (2) maintain his hold on that spot for the majority of the season.

 

You do realize that he's only ever had one truely stellar game?  And that he has NEVER handled more than 17 carries in a single game.  For a RB with durability concerns, Bell doesn't exactly have a track record of: (1) holding up to every-down work; or (2) carrying a heavy load for an extended period.  And that's a risky combo for a pick in the first three rounds.

 

Barlow, on the other hand, found Jesus (in a manner of speaking) and is committed to being the back this year that everyone thought he was gonna be last year.  New coaching, new blocking schemes, improvements on the O-line, and a better attitude give Barlow (at least in my opinion) better odds of being the starter for the majority of the season, relative to Bell.  Barlow has taken on an ever-increasing number of carries in each of the last four years without incurring a major injury.  His lack of success last year could be attributed equally, in my opinion, to his lack of heart, bad coaching, and a sucktacular supporting cast that allowed DEF's to focus primarily on stopping the run.  Well, two out of those three detractors aren't going to be a problem this year, in my estimation.

 

Yeah, Denver's line is waaaay better than the Niners'.  Yeah, Bell is talented.  But I think Barlow taking 80% of the Niner's carries would result in more fantasy production than Bell taking 50% of the Bronco's.  In addition, SF has a substantially easier rushing schedule than Denver (the Bronco's schedule is brutal this year), not to mention a rookie QB who most likely will not be able to carry the offensive load for the team.  That just smells like more opportunties for Barlow, to me.  Bell may end up having a better ypc, or perhaps being more productive in those games he actually plays.  But as far of end of season stats go, I still maintain that Barlow will come within 10% of Bell's fantasy production, assuming he doesn't exeed it.

 

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I applaud the analysis, but respectfully disagree. I still think Bell is in for a good season [disclaimer]if he stays healthy[/disclaimer] but Barlow, regardless of desire still plays for the worst team in the NFL.

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I applaud the analysis, but respectfully disagree. I still think Bell is in for a good season [disclaimer]if he stays healthy[/disclaimer] but Barlow, regardless of desire still plays for the worst team in the NFL.

 

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I can agree to disagree here. Because it appears that I'm just more risk-averse than you when it comes to Bell. (Though, he has undeniable upside, when healthy). And since I know I can get Barlow later in the draft, I'd rather pay less to - at least by my estimates - get about the same in production. Maybe even more, depending on things shake out in Denver this year.

 

And the Niners aren't going to be the worst team this year. I think they'll edge out Miami for those honors. :D

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is somebody really considering keeping barlow over bell?? give me a break. besides using any adp system, why don't you just look at the huddle rankings and projected stats. look at any sites. bell is the starter in a much better offense. if you're hunching on the injury, back him up later. is it better to backup a rb in a feeble offense or a good one.

 

btw, i am fond of bell and of course barring the injury, think i will be rewarded with good number 2 rb points week in and week out in the one league i'm keeping him in.

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The tidbits I've been reading about Denver's camp say that Bell isn't exactly thrilling the crowd out there, while Anderson is surprising. Take it with a grain of salt because it's early and it's camp and it's Denver.

 

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Ditto
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The tidbits I've been reading about Denver's camp say that Bell isn't exactly thrilling the crowd out there, while Anderson is surprising. Take it with a grain of salt because it's early and it's camp and it's Denver.

 

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Don't believe anything out of Denver Camp. It's all smoke and mirrors.

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this is just my view of this situation. i see Barlow breaking out this year. the same went for last year when i picked up cumar since jordan was suppose to take over. and also brees, but i never had the chance to draft him. i like guys who everyone writes off and then they come out big.

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He wouldn't seem to have Clarett to worry about at this time:

AP reports Denver Broncos rookie RB Maurice Clarett missed another practice Tuesday while he had an MRI on his sore right groin. The third-round draft pick has missed several of Denver's training camp practices with injuries. He was listed fifth at running back on the depth chart released this week by the Broncos, the first of the season behind RB Mike Anderson, RB Tatum Bell, RB Quentin Griffin and RB Ron Dayne. "It's the same thing. The groin's sore," HC Mike Shanahan said. "Hopefully it's not too serious, but if it is, we'll take the proper procedure to heal it."
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is somebody really considering keeping barlow over bell??  give me a break.  besides using any adp system, why don't you just look at the huddle rankings and projected stats.  look at any sites.  bell is the starter in a much better offense.  if you're hunching on the injury, back him up later.  is it better to backup a rb in a feeble offense or a good one. 

 

btw, i am fond of bell and of course barring the injury, think i will be rewarded with good number 2 rb points week in and week out in the one league i'm keeping him in.

 

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Nah, I don't think so.  Rajn and I sorta of just got off onto a sidebar.

 

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Yeah, we were just discussing how close their stats will be this year. Yo thinks they'll be closer than I do.

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