THE SIX KINGS Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 Leinart could be option for '06 By Chris Mortensen The dilemma for the New York Jets is more crystal clear than the foggy future of Chad Pennington. Do you plan that future without Chad Pennington? Of course you do. You always contemplate worst-case scenarios, so put on your thinking cap. The most popular and exciting option for Jets' fans would be to borrow the NFL draft playbook from New York Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi. Next April, the Jets have to find a way to land Matt Leinart, the Heisman Trophy winner from USC. It won't be easy, unless they tank it badly enough to earn the No. 1 pick. It's too early, with so many uncertainties, to project the top five picks in the next draft. I tried and came up with something like this: 1. Arizona Cardinals, 2. Oakland Raiders, 3. Tennessee Titans, 4. Jets, 5. San Francisco 49ers. (Remember, we're talking about worst-case scenarios). The Jets, if they pick fourth, would be in the same slot as the Giants in '04 when Accorsi paid the freight for Eli Manning in a dramatic trade with the San Diego Chargers. The hurdles in landing Leinart would be similar to what the Giants faced, if the '06 projections are accurate (big if there). The team picking first is in need of a franchise quarterback, too. The Cardinals seemingly would not pass on Leinart, not with their talented receiving corps and especially not with a new stadium about to open. The Raiders will jettison Kerry Collins if his win-loss record as a starter (now 3-13) doesn't improve. But they do have a promising young QB in Andrew Walter and Al Davis might be very tempted by Leinart's teammate, the versatile Reggie Bush -- assuming Bush turns pro after his junior season. The Titans have Steve McNair and they love backup Billy Volek. They also have offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who drew it up for Leinart's Heisman campaign in '04. So, it would take considerable persuasion via the trade market to make the leap to No. 1. It would help if there were other attractive quarterback options as there were in '04 with Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger also available. It's possible that Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler and Alabama's Brodie Croyle get fashionably hot for the '06 draft. Let's consider the alternatives, even some good ones: • Billy Volek, Titans: He had one of the amazing footnotes that went relatively unnoticed in 2004. In his first nine NFL starts, no quarterback in league history has thrown for more yards (2,591) than Volek did for Titans offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who is now running the Jets' O. • Patrick Ramsey, Washington Redskins: Even if the Redskins are playing hardball, he surely will be moved or released prior to the '06 season. • Rivers or Drew Brees, Chargers One of them will be available. • Chris Simms, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I know three teams that are eyeballing his restricted free agency, now convinced he has the moxie and the big arm to succeed in any offense. The problem is, the Bucs also see him as their future quarterback even with Brian Griese enjoying relative success. Simms will not be content to sit another year. As one NFL head coach told me, "Leinart's a very good prospect but, to me, that's all he is. I'm pretty sure I'd rather take my chances with these other guys and the price tag won't be as costly, either." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 It won't be easy, unless they tank it badly enough to earn the No. 1 pick. It's too early, with so many uncertainties, to project the top five picks in the next draft. I tried and came up with something like this: 1. Arizona Cardinals, 2. Oakland Raiders, 3. Tennessee Titans, 4. Jets, 5. San Francisco 49ers. (Remember, we're talking about worst-case scenarios). 1034591[/snapback] No NFC North teams in that list? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 2 early for predictions like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 2 early for predictions like that 1034882[/snapback] agree. projecting the top 5 picks at this point is a bit ridiculous. there was some interesting stuff in that article though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 The league QB situation will be very interesting after the season ends, so I don't see anybody selling the farm to get Leinart. I think he's going to be a failure, anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Making the assumption that he's right in his determination of who picks in what order for next years' draft...and that Leinart continues to look as good as he looks and remains a "top 2 or 3 pick...maybe consensus #1 overall pick" for the 2006 draft...here's what makes sense to me: 1. Arizona Cardinals -- Matt Leinart 2. Oakland Raiders -- big, nasty d-lineman 3. Tennessee Titans -- big, nasty d-lineman or big, nasty o-lineman or big, nasty RB 4. New York Jets -- TEN trades Volek and maybe another pick (their 3rd rounder?) to NYJ for 1.04 -- TEN then picks either a big, nasty d-lineman or big, nasty o-lineman or big, nasty RB (they get another b-u QB later on in the draft and/or try to trade for Matt Cassell (Leinart-lite?)from NE due to his familiarity w/ Norm Chow's offense) 5. San Francisco 49ers -- top WR or big, nasty o-lineman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Making the assumption that he's right in his determination of who picks in what order for next years' draft...and that Leinart continues to look as good as he looks and remains a "top 2 or 3 pick...maybe consensus #1 overall pick" for the 2006 draft...here's what makes sense to me: 1. Arizona Cardinals -- Matt Leinart 2. Oakland Raiders -- big, nasty d-lineman 3. Tennessee Titans -- big, nasty d-lineman or big, nasty o-lineman or big, nasty RB 4. New York Jets -- TEN trades Volek and maybe another pick (their 3rd rounder?) to NYJ for 1.04 -- TEN then picks either a big, nasty d-lineman or big, nasty o-lineman or big, nasty RB (they get another b-u QB later on in the draft and/or try to trade for Matt Cassell (Leinart-lite?)from NE due to his familiarity w/ Norm Chow's offense) 5. San Francisco 49ers -- top WR or big, nasty o-lineman 1035771[/snapback] I don't think the Raiders will even be in the top 10 in the draft next year...and they seem to be OK at DL, believe it or not... they need to take the BPA...whether it be a QB, CB, LB, OL, or even someone on the DL as they are aging...but it's not something they need to address right now... they have played some rough teams and their schedule doesn't get much easier...but they've hung in there with the top teams and could go 10-6 if they can manage a decent run.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 The league QB situation will be very interesting after the season ends, so I don't see anybody selling the farm to get Leinart. I think he's going to be a failure, anyway. 1035703[/snapback] What did you think about Carson Palmer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 No NFC North teams in that list? 1034775[/snapback] No Saints on that list either? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 The league QB situation will be very interesting after the season ends, so I don't see anybody selling the farm to get Leinart. I think he's going to be a failure, anyway. 1035703[/snapback] Did you watch the championship game against Oklahoma last year? In that huge game his throws were amazing. Sure he doesn't have a huge arm, but who cares with his acccuracy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd1 Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 from a FOOTBALL view, not a FF view, this is reason #1 why you don't take a QB in the first round. Jets are bailing on Pennington, the Texans and Lions are ready to bail on Carr and Harrington. Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown are out of the league. Rex Grossman is quickly on his last leg (no pun intended.) Taking a QB high puts far, far too much pressure on a young man to run the whole offense. Much better to take a developmental guy, let him build up his strength, watch the game and start as a 3rd, 4th, 5th year player. PLUS, you aren't wasting your salary cap on the guy! So, Jets fans, make the same mistake, take another QB high, start him in his first or second year and in 2008 or 2009, you'll be ready to bail on him too. And again, I say this every time, but name me the last 1st round draft pick to win a Super Bowl with his original team? No, Elway doesn't count, he was drafted by Baltimore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 from a And again, I say this every time, but name me the last 1st round draft pick to win a Super Bowl with his original team? No, Elway doesn't count, he was drafted by Baltimore. 1035873[/snapback] Troy Aikman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 And again, I say this every time, but name me the last 1st round draft pick to win a Super Bowl with his original team? No, Elway doesn't count, he was drafted by Baltimore. 1035873[/snapback] Steve McNair and Donovan McNabb have come darn close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 (edited) QBs taken in the first round 1993-2004 Year Round Name Team Comment 2004 1 Eli Manning Chargers Starter 1 Philip Rivers Giants Back-up 1 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Starter 1 J.P. Losman Bills Starter 2003 1 Carson Palmer Bengals Starter 1 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Starter 1 Kyle Boller Ravens Starter 1 Rex Grossman Bears Starter 2002 1 David Carr Texans Starter 1 Joey Harrington Lions Starter 1 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Back-up 2001 1 Michael Vick Falcons Starter 2000 1 Chad Pennington Jets Starter 1999 1 Tim Couch Browns Bust 1 Donovan McNabb Eagles Starter 1 Akili Smith Bengals Bust 1 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Starter 1 Cade McNown Bears Bust 1998 1 Peyton Manning Colts Starter 1 Ryan Leaf Chargers Bust 1997 1 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Bust 1996 None 1995 1 Steve McNair Oilers Starter 1 Kerry Collins Panthers Starter 1994 1 Heath Shuler Redskins Bust 1 Trent Dilfer Bucs Starter 1993 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Starter 1 Rick Mirer Seahawks Bust That’s 18 starters, 2 current backups, and 7 busts. Next, we will examine QBs taken over the same time period in rounds 2 through 6. Edited October 1, 2005 by Vet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 (edited) QBs selected in rounds 2 through 6, 1993-2004 Year Round Name Team Comment 2004 3 Matt Schaub Falcons Backup 4 Luke McCown Browns Bust 5 Craig Krenzel Bears Bust 6 Andy Hall Eagles Bust 6 Josh Harris Ravens Bust 6 Jim Sorgi Colts Backup 6 Jeff Smoker Rams Bust 2003 3 Dave Ragone Texans Bust 3 Chris Simms Buccaneers Backup 4 Seneca Wallace Seahawks Bust 5 Brian St. Pierre Steelers Bust 6 Drew Henson Texans Bust 6 Brooks Bollinger Jets 3rd string 6 Kliff Kingsbury Patriots 5th string 2002 3 Josh McCown Cardinals Backup 4 David Garrard Jaguars Backup 4 Rohan Davey Patriots 4th string 5 Randy Fasani Panthers Bust 5 Kurt Kittner Falcons Bust 5 Brandon Doman 49ers Bust 5 Craig Nall Packers Bust 6 J.T. O'Sullivan Saints Bust 6 Steve Bellisari Rams Bust 2001 2 Drew Brees Chargers Starter 2 Quincy Carter Cowboys Bust 2 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Backup 4 Chris Weinke Panthers Bust 4 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Bust 4 Jesse Palmer Giants Backup 5 Mike McMahon Lions Backup 5 A.J. Feeley Eagles Backup 6 Josh Booty Seahawks Bust 6 Josh Heupel Dolphins Bust 2000 3 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Bust 3 Chris Redman Ravens Bust 5 Tee Martin Steelers Bust 6 Marc Bulger Saints Starter 6 Spergon Wynn Browns Bust 6 Tom Brady Patriots Starter 6 Todd Husak Redskins Bust 6 JaJuan Seider Chargers Bust 1999 2 Shaun King Buccaneers Bust 3 Brock Huard Seahawks Bust 4 Joe Germaine Rams Bust 4 Aaron Brooks Packers Starter 5 Kevin Daft Oilers Bust 1998 2 Charlie Batch Lions Journeyman 3 Jonathan Quinn Jaguars Bust 3 Brian Griese Broncos Starter 6 John Dutton Dolphins Bust 6 Matt Hasselbeck Packers Starter 1997 2 Jake Plummer Cardinals Starter 4 Danny Wuerffel Saints Bust 4 Pat Barnes Chiefs Bust 6 Mike Cherry Giants Bust 6 Chuck Clements Jets Bust 1996 2 Tony Banks Rams Journeyman 3 Bobby Hoying Eagles Bust 4 Jeff Lewis Broncos Bust 4 Danny Kanell Giants Bust 6 Spence Fischer Steelers Bust 6 Mike Cawley Colts Bust 1995 2 Todd Collins Bills Bust 2 Kordell Stewart Steelers Bust 3 Stoney Case Cardinals Bust 3 Eric Zeier Browns Bust 4 Rob Johnson Jaguars Journeyman 4 Chad May Vikings Bust 4 Dave Barr Eagles Bust 4 Steve Stenstrom Chiefs Bust 5 Jay Barker Packers Bust 6 Jerry Colquitt Panthers Bust 6 Craig Whelihan Chargers Bust 1994 4 Perry Klein Falcons Bust 4 Doug Nussmeier Saints Bust 6 Jim Miller Steelers Bust 1993 3 Billy Joe Hobert Raiders Bust 5 Mark Brunell Packers Starter That’s 8 starters, 3 journeymen, 9 current back-up, and 58 busts. I’ll take my chances selecting a QB in the first round. Edited October 1, 2005 by Vet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd1 Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 I'm not saying a 1st rd QB won't ever have a good career (Kelly, Marino, Manning, McNabb, McNair), just rare that they'll win a Super Bowl. Aikman is the answer and that was 10+ years ago now. Close doesn't count for McNabb and McNair. Manning might get a chance this year, somehow they developed a good defense and signed Corey Simon. I think the wheels will start to fall of next year. Being a Packer fan, I can attest that paying a QB $10+ million a year doesn't allow you much salary cap room for a quality defense. 2003 and 2004 QBs really aren't qualified yet, since they're still in the honeymoon phase. I'm sure Boller and Grossman will be on short leashes next year too. Pennington is basically a bust now too. I disagree with Dilfer not being a bust, he was certainly a bust in TB and Sea, the only reason he won a SB was because of the defense in Baltimore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 (edited) I'm not saying a 1st rd QB won't ever have a good career (Kelly, Marino, Manning, McNabb, McNair), just rare that they'll win a Super Bowl. Aikman is the answer and that was 10+ years ago now. Close doesn't count for McNabb and McNair. Manning might get a chance this year, somehow they developed a good defense and signed Corey Simon. I think the wheels will start to fall of next year. Being a Packer fan, I can attest that paying a QB $10+ million a year doesn't allow you much salary cap room for a quality defense. 2003 and 2004 QBs really aren't qualified yet, since they're still in the honeymoon phase. I'm sure Boller and Grossman will be on short leashes next year too. Pennington is basically a bust now too. I disagree with Dilfer not being a bust, he was certainly a bust in TB and Sea, the only reason he won a SB was because of the defense in Baltimore. 1036430[/snapback] You could probably call Dilfer "journeyman". I don't think you can call him a bust since he has a ring. I'm trying to find a list of Superbowl QBs and their draft position... Edit: I can't easily find one and I'm too lazy to put one together myself right now. I've seen that stat about 1st round QBs not winning Superbowls with their own teams and it's interesting. But I think you could probably find several other positions on the team that have the same type of statistic. How many Centers drafted in the first round have won a Superbowl with the team that drafted them? How many defensive tackles? etc. It'd be interesting to look and see. Edited October 1, 2005 by Vet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd1 Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Try looking at it this way, Super Bowl winners vs. losers: 05- Brady 6th rd pick vs. McNabb 1st rd pick 04- " " " " vs. Delhomme not drafted 03- Brad Johnson 9th rd vs. Gannon not 1st rd pick 02- Brady 6th rd pick vs Warner undrafter (or late pick by GB) 01- Dilfer 1st rd pick (NOT w/ original team) vs. K Collins 1st rd pick (Not w/ orig team) 00- Warner (undrafted) vs. McNair 1st rd pick 99- Elway NOT w/ original team AND old! T Davis won that game vs. Chandler (not 1st rd pick) 98- Elway vs Favre 2nd rd pick 97- Favre 2nd rd pick vs. Bledsoe 1st rd pick 96- Aikman 1st rd pick (BEFORE salary cap) vs. Neil O'Donnel 3rd rd pick 95- Young not 1st rd pick w/ SF vs. Humphries 6th rd pick 94- Aikman vs. Kelly 1st rd pick 93- Aikman vs. Kelly 92- Rypien 6th rd vs. Kelly 91- Hostettler not 1st rd pick vs. Kelly 90- Montana 3rd rd pick vs. Elway 1st rd pick 89- Montana " " " vs. Esiason 2nd rd pick 88- Doug undrafted "how long have you been a black QB?" Williams vs. Elway In the salary cap era, only Aikman has won a SB w/ his original team, and I'd like to see you put together that Dallas team under the cap now. Also, I'd argue the line, the D and Emmitt had more to do w/ the wins than Aikman. He was never a huge stats guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd1 Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 You're right about centers and DTs, but a DT can 'half' understand the system and rotate in. QB's really can't. A DT isn't 'ruined' mentally if he gets beaten for a TD like a QB who loses, gets sacked all the time, throws picks and is learning back mechanics cuz his team sucks. No other position gets the signing bonus and contract that a QB does. Also, fans aren't screaming to see a DT on the field like they are the 1st rd QB. I think TB fans would call Dilfer a bust. I'm talking only a QB who wins w/ his original team. TB got nothing out of Baltimore's SB win w/ Dilfer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RokoMotion Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 It's rare for any QB to win the superbowl. Your statistics are a little weak. You dont have a large enough volume of data, nor a strong enough counter-correlation to prove anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 (edited) By that logic, you shouldn't draft a RB in the first round either - unless it's Emmitt Smith or Rodney Hampton. 05 Corey Dillon – not w/original team 04 Antowain Smith – not w/original team 03 Michael Pittman – not w/original team 02 Antowain Smith – not w/original team 01 Terry Allen – not w/original team 00 Marshall Faulk – not/w original team 99 Olandis Gary – 4th round pick 98 Terrell Davis – 6th round pick 97 Dorsey Levens – 5th round pick 96 Emmitt Smith – 1st round pick 95 Derek Loville – not w/original team 94 Emmitt Smith – 1st round pick 93 Emmitt Smith – 1st round pick 92 Ernest Byner – not w/original team 91 Rodney Hampton – 1st round pick 90 Roger Craig – 2nd round pick 89 Roger Craig – 2nd round pick 88 Kelvin Bryant – 7th round pick I think teams do tend to overpay for QBs, however. That's because: A.) Crappy teams have the high draft picks, and B.) Flashy college QBs put fannies in the seats of crappy teams for a short period of time until the fannies figure out that the team is still crappy. For example, the Bengals have picked three QBs in the first round since 1992. The first two were complete busts, the jury is still out on the third. But it think it's a stretch to say teams shouldn't draft a QB highly and that if they do, there is little chance they'll win a Superbowl with him. Edited October 1, 2005 by Vet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd1 Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 (edited) Absolutely Vet, I agree w/ RB's too. I believe football is won in the trenches. I'd rather have an O line and D line full of top picks. Denver has proven that they can win win a great line and almost any RB. Like you said about the Bengals though, you get a top QB, he loses, you replace him, he loses, replace him, etc.. I've felt this way for years and was just stunned when GB took Aaron Rodgers this year. Stupid move. I'm honestly hoping that Craig Nall wins a SB before Rodgers does. Edited October 1, 2005 by Todd1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skilly Posted October 2, 2005 Share Posted October 2, 2005 Denver has two first round picks next year. (Their own and Washington's). IMO, Matt Leinart is about as blue-chip, can't miss prospect as there is. True, you never know with qb's, but he hasn't shown any reason that he can't have success on the pro level. If I am Denver, I package these two picks to try and trade up and get Leinart. Probably have to throw in 2007 first rounder also. Would that be overpaying? Not if he could be the franchise qb for the next 15 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted October 2, 2005 Share Posted October 2, 2005 88- Doug undrafted "how long have you been a black QB?" Williams 1036468[/snapback] Doug Williams was a 1st round draft pick by the Bucs in '78. He left the Bucs to play in the USFL and signed with Was when that league folded. Took the Bucs to 2 division titles and an NFC title game from 79-81. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted October 2, 2005 Share Posted October 2, 2005 It's rare for any QB to win the superbowl. Your statistics are a little weak. You dont have a large enough volume of data, nor a strong enough counter-correlation to prove anything. 1036501[/snapback] Also, I think part of the recent issue is that FA changed the ballgame - previous to that, you took a QB, ideally let him sit and learn for a year or two behind a solid starter, and then put him in. With FA, a few things have happened: - there's less time to allow a QB to develop; you're draft picks have to contribute and CONTRIBUTE NOW. Guys like McNair, Palmer, and Pennington are the exceptions - most QBs are expected to maybe sit for half a season and then grab the starting job - I think college FB's depth has increased (for lack of a better word); scholarship limits have led to less of glamour programs stockpiling talent. If you can play, you take your chance at a smaller D-1 school. Not to mention that more QBs have more experience in pro-style offenses - the days of the entire Southwest Conference running the option are long-gone - being able to "solve" your QB problem through FA lessens the necessity for USING a high draft pick; if you think you're team is just a competent QB away, why go with a completely unknown quantity like a college QB? At least with a former starter or even a scrub (like Delhomme) from another NFL team, you have a look at them facing NFL-caliber competition. Less incentive for mid-level or elite teams to draft a high QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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