Trots Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Would they rather be correct or sell their product? Something tells me that it is easier to sell the product if the predictions are generally enhanced. You want to see that someone else agrees with your own thoughts that Player A will have a great season or week. This feeds our ego and makes us want to buy the product because if they agree with me - they must be smart. You don't sell the steak, you sell the sizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitbull739 Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 No more guilty than Jamal Lewis making cell phone coke deals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGrunt Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 I could see magazines doing this more often, but fantasy football websites are not based on old news. If a website isn't consistently, or on average, picking close predictions the customers going to the website probably will catch on quickly. It's not that hard to tell if someone is BSing, or if they know what they are talking about. It's a good theory though, and you might even be on the right track with your thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Of course they "enhance" their predictions. Just look to see how many times you see your #1 RB or #1 WR projections each week. Usually close to 100 yards and a TD every week. Yet you won't see many players with 1600 yards and 16 TDs. Heck, just pick randomly 5 players, any 5 players. Doesn't matter what position either. Compare (sorry to pick on you Dave) Dorey's pre-season projections to what he projects for those same 5 players in each weekly projection. Tally the numbers. Do the numbers match? Even close? Most pre-season projections will be 1000 yards and 8 TDs for random #1 WR (average 62 yards/.5 TD a week). Weekly projections will probably be inflated above that in both yards (70-100) and TDs (usually 1). Both "products" (pre-season and weekly) are designed as separate content. To sell the product of the company. Only 1 or 2 of the fantasy websites out there actually "rate" how they did each week or have a review of their pre-season picks. Yes, people look for a site that suggests the owner is making good decisions. You go against the owner's player and they'll call you out on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Heck, just pick randomly 5 players, any 5 players. Doesn't matter what position either. Compare (sorry to pick on you Dave) Dorey's pre-season projections to what he projects for those same 5 players in each weekly projection. Tally the numbers. Do the numbers match? Even close? Took my own challenge. I took 6 top WRs that didn't fall off the face of the earth (Moss) or were injured (Smith/Fitz). The results per Dorey's projections through week 15: T. Holt Pre-season = 1360 yards / 12 TDs Weekly = 1370 yards / 15 TDs Actual = 1044 yards / 10 TDs Holt was projected to score at least 1 TD every week. C. Johnson Pre-season = 1410 yards / 11 TDs Weekly = 1170 yards / 12 TDs Actual = 1285 yards / 7 TDs A. Boldin Pre-season = 1420 yards / 9 TDs Weekly = 1190 yards / 10 TDs Actual = 1027 yards / 4 TDs T. Owens Pre-season = 1230 yards / 11 TDs Weekly = 1290 yards / 15 TDs Actual = 1040 yards / 11 TDs M. Harrison Pre-season = 1140 yards / 11 TDs Weekly = 1200 yards / 12 TDs Actual = 1180 yards / 9 TDs R. Wayne Pre-season = 1230 yards / 8 TDs Weekly = 1160 yards = 12 TDs Actual = 1213 yards / 9 TDs Remember, weekly and actual still have two games to go to finish out the season. Pre-season TD projections seem more realistic than weekly projections. Weekly yardage isn't so far off. Weekly = pipe dream mostly. Nobody has a bad day. Weekly = more padding than listed above after we add week 16 and 17. All the weekly estimates overshot the pre-season projections for TDs already. 6 WRs X 15 weeks = 84 total projections (subtract 6 bye weeks). Of those 84, only 8 times were the projections under 70 yards. Of the 6 WRs, the lowest actual yardage right now was 1027, divided by 14 weeks is 73 yards. Was projected weekly 2 times to have less than 70 yards. Actual = 9 times less than 70 yards. Obviously a very small sampling. But you get the gist. Padding does occur IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 No more guilty than Jamal Lewis making cell phone coke deals. Okay, so they're guilty of stat padding -- but when caught, do they hide in the trunk like Rae Carruth to avoid capture or are they more likely to volunteer to search for the real stat padder like OJ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunysteelfly76 Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Of course they "enhance" their predictions. Just look to see how many times you see your #1 RB or #1 WR projections each week. Usually close to 100 yards and a TD every week. Yet you won't see many players with 1600 yards and 16 TDs. Maybe there is some top secret formula that only ff website owners are privy to that factors in the YTD stats and recalculates the the weekly projections are so that they are in accordance with the presaeson projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ts Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Took my own challenge. I took 6 top WRs that didn't fall off the face of the earth (Moss) or were injured (Smith/Fitz). ... Obviously a very small sampling. But you get the gist. Padding does occur IMO. Interesting study. Not to agree or disagree, but another factor to consider: pre-season predictions are 'static' once the season starts, while weekly predictions are dynamic. Say for example, Boldin was projected for 1TD in week 2, but actually finished with 0. When making predictions for week 3, since TDs are notoriously hard to predict anyways, I'd think it would be easy for the person making the predictions to 'carry over' that missing week 2 TD into the week 3 projections, to make up for lost time (or TDs) towards the pre-season projection total...carry that scenario thru a few weeks, and you end up with a higher "weekly" TD total. Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Interesting study. Not to agree or disagree, but another factor to consider: pre-season predictions are 'static' once the season starts, while weekly predictions are dynamic. Say for example, Boldin was projected for 1TD in week 2, but actually finished with 0. When making predictions for week 3, since TDs are notoriously hard to predict anyways, I'd think it would be easy for the person making the predictions to 'carry over' that missing week 2 TD into the week 3 projections, to make up for lost time (or TDs) towards the pre-season projection total...carry that scenario thru a few weeks, and you end up with a higher "weekly" TD total. Just a thought. Exactly what I was thinking ts. Good point. I think the measure of success would be actual vs. preseason prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 (edited) I'm sorry, folks, but am I the only one here who thinks that the expectations of a FF website's predictions are way out of whack with what's possible. His name is Dorey, not f'n Nostradamus. $hit happens during a season and last I checked, coaches aren't phoning their game plans into the Huddle. Edited December 23, 2006 by Ursa Majoris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Preseason projections and weekly projections are entirely two different things. Preseason projections are based on an overall view of the season considering what is known at that time. It considered the risk/reward of each player, the dynamics of the team and schedule going into the season and as with all projections, makes a "best guess". As mentioned in a book coming out this summer, projections are nothing more than one possible outcome to a season of many. It should be the most likely, but also consider how "likely" that is - is it a 95% certainty because every factor points strongly to that or is it merely a 2% certainty because you have to come up with a numerical expression of what in sum will happen over 17 week, maybe 100 passes and 80 catches against opponents trying to stop every one? Preseason projections can never predict what injuries are to occur or the myriad of other dynamic changing events that occur - both on the players team and that of his opponent for 16 weeks. Weekly projectiions too describe the "most likely case" which factors in previous stats gained by the player and allowed by the defense, while also trying to take into account factors which will impact the player for that week. Touchdowns are always "iffy" to project because obviously they are the product of a single play. In fact, particularly for receivers, the accuracy of their projections hinge dramatically on single play events. I cannot tell you how it kills me to see a player drop a certain TD bomb and ruin my projections or to see someone else I predicted a bad game for have the defender fall down and allow him a long completion for a score while otherwise shutting him down the entire game. Throw in the change in game plans and the tendency to move both wideouts and cornerbacks around in games and it becomes more challenging. I go in depth discussing this in my book that comes out next summer. Here is my first quote from Fantasy Football: The Next Level Rule 3 - Statistics – whether actual or projected – are only useful as guidelines. and Rule 14 – Projections, by their very nature, only describe one potential outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teacon Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 My thinking exactly DD. I never take any prediction as written in cement, and any who do are fools whose money SHOULD be taken. I would like to think that any fantasy player should be able to extrapolate the differences between season projections as opposed to weekly. Once the season starts, the variables are not static; they are fluid. Weekly projection has to take that into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.D.Morrison Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Weekly projections = rationalizations given a certain data set and inherent variability. Preseason projections = rationalizations given a MUCH LARGER data set and inherent variabilities with MUCH GREATER inter-relational factors..... So weekly projections are like "fine-tuning"..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark5 Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 This site has PROJECTIONS???? I just come here for the message boards and the SMACK BOWL !!!!! Defenders falling down and dropped passes (or VICK PASSES) screw up projections EVERY week. I am a Mark Clayton owner and yes I go to therapy for it.. Also I wait for Quimby's AVI's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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