Sgt. Ryan Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 (edited) Overrated wide receivers Donald Driver For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards. June 20 Glossary YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency. Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield. Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor. Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage. However, it took a hugh number of pass attempts for him to amass these figures. When I rank wide receivers, I place the highest value on consistency and explosiveness. Driver certainly wasn't that explosive, as his 7.6 YPA ranked him 48th among wide receivers (of 67 qualifiers). His 10.3 YPA on bomb passes (30-plus yards downfield) ranked him 39th in the league, and his 10.1 YPA on deep passes (20-29 yards) ranked him 44th. Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL. I'm not saying Driver is a bad wide receiver. I just think metrics such as these did not warrant the Pro Bowl starter slot he garnered last year. Chris Chambers Chambers isn't considered a great receiver, but his metrics indicate he wasn't even a good receiver last year. Chambers had the lowest YPA (5.1) and success percentage (44.8) of any wide receiver in the NFL in 2006. He ranked no higher than 49th in YPA at any depth level, so he lacked production across the board. Chambers was hampered by bad quarterback play, but 14 of his 24 missed pass plays last year were drops. Even if some of those other 10 passes had been completed, though, it still wouldn't have brought his overall metrics back up to a respectable level. Honorable mention Randy Moss: He'll have to dramatically improve on his meager 6.2 YPA to keep the Patriots happy. Greg Jennings: He is a Favre favorite, but his success percentage (45.2) was the second-lowest in the league. Wes Welker: He is being touted as a vastly underrated player, but his 7.2 YPA last year ranked 55th in the league. Torry Holt: He is one of my all-time favorite wide receivers, but his 7.5 YPA and 55.9 success percentage were his worst numbers in the four years I've been doing this. He also didn't deserve a starting spot in the Pro Bowl. Underrated wide receivers Terry Glenn Terrell Owens gets the most press in Dallas, but the metrics indicate Glenn was the better receiver in 2006, and it wasn't even close. Glenn had the third-best overall YPA, the ninth-best bomb pass YPA and the seventh-best medium pass YPA. Contrast that with Owens' ranking in overall YPA (40th), bomb pass YPA (37th) and medium pass YPA (34th), and it is clear Glenn is the more consistent and explosive receiver. Owens is still a productive player, as evidenced by his 13 touchdowns, but Glenn is the far more reliable receiver. Reggie Brown Donte Stallworth (who left via free agency) and Kevin Curtis (who signed with the Eagles) have received most of the attention in Philadelphia this offseason, but if the 2006 metrics are any indication, the breakout receiver could be Brown. He ranked 12th in the league with a 9.6 YPA last year, putting him in the company of Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson. He also ranked in the top 22 in bomb and deep pass YPA and had the sixth-highest medium pass YPA. Opposing defenses might be paying a lot of attention to Curtis this season, and Brown's metrics indicate he could make them pay for it. Honorable mention Bryant Johnson: He has been an inconsistent player for most of his career, but had a strong season last year, posting a 10.5 YPA. Santonio Holmes: His 10.5 short pass YPA was not only the best in the league, but ranked 2.5 yards higher than the second-best receiver in that category. Mark Clayton: His 33.9 bomb pass YPA was the highest in the NFL last season. D.J. Hackett: Hackett ranked 10th in overall YPA (9.7), and first in medium pass YPA (15.1) and success percentage (84.6). KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web site. http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/col...&CMP=ILC-INHEAD Edited June 21, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Bryant Johnson: underated. This one is kinda funny, he isnt a factor at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Overrated wide receivers Donald Driver For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards. That's always a good start to creating a defensible position... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 (edited) I read that yesterday. It's based on yards per attempt, which he came up with. Kind of a dumb article. Who would you rather have, an "overrated" Torry Holt, or and underrated Bryant Johnson? Edited June 21, 2007 by CaptainHook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Men In Tights Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 I read that yesterday. It's based on yards per attempt, which he came up with. Kind of a dumb article. Who would you rather have, an "overrated" Torry Holt, or and underrated Bryant Johnson? Or an overrated TO or an underrated Glenn. I feel dumber for just having read that. Don't even get me started about Driver as he is one of the MOST UNDERRATED WR's in football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Is this guy on crack? Donanld Driver has to be one of the underrated WR's there is out there. Bryant Johnson, are you kidding me? Uh hey nimrod, Fitzgerald was hurt last year I somewhat agree on Holt and we dont know what Moss is going to do yet. I do however like the Holmes, Hackett and Clayton picks though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Don't even get me started about Driver as he is one of the MOST UNDERRATED WR's in football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 (edited) I read that yesterday. It's based on yards per attempt, which he came up with. Kind of a dumb article. Who would you rather have, an "overrated" Torry Holt, or and underrated Bryant Johnson? YPA is much better suited for rating QBs. A better barometer using YPA would be considering the receiver's stats versus his QB's YPA... if receiver A's QB has a better than average YPA but receiver A has a worse than average YPA than other receivers with QBs that have worse YPAs then something is amiss with receiver A. Of course all of this should be screened for minimum pass attempts for QBs or minimum targets for WRs b/c you end up with stupid anomalies like Bryant Johnson and Santonio Holmes... ie. if Holmes was the target of enough passes to break 75 catches (he caught 49 last year), Holmes' YPA probably would've levelled off. If Bryant Johnson and Donald Driver were on the same team, those stats hardly warrant putting Johnson into the starting role over Driver as Johnson's YPA probably would've levelled off, if not plummetted, if he was the target of that many Favre passes. EDIT: Joyner is a serious numbers guy. Usually he's pretty good but his skill position ratings and articles are usually lacking as the WRs and RBs rely heavily on their QBs and OLs. His line efficiency ratings, especially his OL ratings, are usually spot on and quite helpful when trying to break a tie in FF drafts for the skill positions. While I'm a numbers head, I stick with the comparably simple Cold Hard Football Facts Guys... HERE Edited June 21, 2007 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 I stick with the comparably simple Cold Hard Football Facts Guys... HERE Interesting, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Is this guy on crack? Donanld Driver has to be one of the underrated WR's there is out there. No kidding. And why is Holt now overrated? Because his numbers were down after he and Bulger played through injuries last year with a makeshift O-line? What retarded analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egret Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 If all it took to value out WRs was a look at their YPA, DMD's job would be much easier. I could care less that Driver had a lower YPA than Bryant Johnson. Driver scored more points for me than Johnson. That's why he's a better fantasy player. Sheesh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Overrated wide receivers Donald Driver If all it took to value out WRs was a look at their YPA, DMD's job would be much easier. I could care less that Driver had a lower YPA than Bryant Johnson. Driver scored more points for me than Johnson. That's why he's a better fantasy player. Sheesh. Its not just fantasy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 this is his definition of an "underrated" wide receiver? In his chat going on right now, he answered a question about Brown this way.. KC Joyner: (4:07 PM ET ) Dan, I'd peg Brown for something along the lines of 70 catches, 900 yards and 4-5 TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DKF Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 No kidding. And why is Holt now overrated? Because his numbers were down after he and Bulger played through injuries last year with a makeshift O-line? What retarded analysis. I agree, the dude totally left injuries out of the equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted June 22, 2007 Author Share Posted June 22, 2007 St Louis choose to run the ball more, thus fewer opportunities for Holt. I expect that to continue and Holt to be drafted a round higher than his production again this yr, which makes him over rated imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted June 23, 2007 Share Posted June 23, 2007 I really like Joyner's work -- but you have to know how to use it. As pirates said, it's not FF analysis; it's just a comparison tool to use across the board. He does a really good job of finding and analyzing statistics that no one else tracks. Like everything else, it's one factor among MANY, MANY others we FFers have to use to make decisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfv87 Posted June 25, 2007 Share Posted June 25, 2007 I really like Joyner's work -- but you have to know how to use it. As pirates said, it's not FF analysis; it's just a comparison tool to use across the board. He does a really good job of finding and analyzing statistics that no one else tracks. Like everything else, it's one factor among MANY, MANY others we FFers have to use to make decisions. But hw does a WR that finished 5th in yards and catches be overrated in an offense with a gunslinger, albeit older, like Farve throwing the ball to him? Isn't he option #1 when he drops back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mystykoekaki Posted June 25, 2007 Share Posted June 25, 2007 I would add Lee Evans to the overrated group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDude Posted June 25, 2007 Share Posted June 25, 2007 I have loved getting DD in round 7 every year. Don't f*** it up for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted June 25, 2007 Share Posted June 25, 2007 Or an overrated TO or an underrated Glenn. I feel dumber for just having read that. Don't even get me started about Driver as he is one of the MOST UNDERRATED WR's in football. Well, look at the TO/Glenn thing. Last year, I took Glenn in the 5th round, expecting those numbers from him since TO would get keyed on by D's. The team that spent the 2nd rounder lost a lot of value, whereas I took my second RB, then grabbed (ironically) Driver, Andre J and Glenn. Sometimes, it can get taken too far though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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