Gros Membres! Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 T. Jones at 1.12 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 I know this ought to start a ####storm, but the Romo at 1.03 pick is actually worse than the Duckett in the third round pick, and it's not even close. Romo's value puts him in the middle of the 4th round. By using a 1st rounder on him, an owner actually surrenders a lot more value to his team than drafting Duckett in the 3rd round and then not having Duckett even make an NFL roster. It's a classic example of not being able to win a league in the 1st round, but being able to lose it there. Romo's value puts him in the middle of the 4th round? I've been in a ton (maybe a hundred or more) of mocks so far this year and Romo never lasts until the 4th...sometimes you see him go as LATE as early in the 3rd round....but middle of the 4th? I want in that league. KO'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 (edited) Romo's value puts him in the middle of the 4th round? I've been in a ton (maybe a hundred or more) of mocks so far this year and Romo never lasts until the 4th...sometimes you see him go as LATE as early in the 3rd round....but middle of the 4th? I want in that league. KO'd I didn't say ADP, I said value. BIG difference. Romo is being drafted at least 1 round too early in almost every draft I've seen. And no, you wouldn't want in that league. It would mean the owners were damn good at what they were doing. Edited August 26, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 So, the group is coming to the same opinion that Duckett in the 3rd round is quite possibly the worst pick in FF so far this year? Nope. The Romo @ 1.03 easily outdoes it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdrtoys Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 most interesting first round so far 1.01 : Terrell Owens 1.02 Tom Brady 1.03 LT 1.04 Brian Westbrook 1.05 Peyton Manning 1.06 Adrian Peterson 1.07 Steven Jackson 1.09 Carson Palmer 1.10 Randy Moss 1.11 Clinton Portis 1.12 Marion Barber It was an interesting draft to say the least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt Ryan Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Westbrook went 1.1 in my local. Not stupid, but certainly not the greatest value. I was picking 3rd and tried to move up when I heard he was looking at Westy. He said no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Talker Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 My example doesn't compare with some of the whoppers already mentioned, but it's still pretty bad. Dynasty league, performance scoring, no PPR, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1PK/1DST. Our annual rookie/FA draft started this morning. The first 3 picks were McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall, pretty predictable. The 4th pick was (drumroll) Matt Ryan! Not only are QBs somewhat devalued in this league (1 pt/25 yd, 4 pts for pass TDs), the real head scratcher here is that the owner already had Brees and E Manning! DOH!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebellab Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night ten team keeper league, keep five players, no more than two in one position RB heavy scoring system. One guy takes Peyton Manning first round pick 1.4 second round 2.6 16 overall he takes Carson Palmer. He had also kept Eli Manning from last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory_n_az Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 The guy in my local trying to take Brandon Jacobs in the 14th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 (edited) I didn't say ADP, I said value. BIG difference. Romo is being drafted at least 1 round too early in almost every draft I've seen. And no, you wouldn't want in that league. It would mean the owners were damn good at what they were doing. If I found a league where I could Romo in the middle of the 4th...I'd love to be in that league as I would know in round 1-3 I could load up on other positions because I could then land a quality qb in round 4. Explain the difference between ADP and "value"....isn't value determined to be whatever each individual owner would put on a player/position? In much the same way you value Romo to be only worthy of a mid 4th round selection many others value him higher....whether that be deemed ADP thinking or what have you...IF Romo is going "1 round too early" then either everyone of those folks is wrong, or you are, or it's all in the eyes/mind of the picker... KO'd Edited August 26, 2008 by KOKIDKOKID Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Me taking Chris Long at 2.06 in a BOTH rookie/keeper league. First time in a keeper and an IDP I'm still learning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 (edited) I'm surprised at how many "experts" are going away from the stud RB theory in the 1st rd. That's because the "Stud RB Theory" was terrifying ten years ago, when you could spend your two first picks on RBs and actually have a chance at getting TWO STUD RBs. After a decade's worth of every 'expert draft' going straight RB for the first thirty picks, people will spend, say, the 1.8/2.5 on like Clinton Portis and Thomas Jones because if they don't pick an RB then there won't be any left!!. Then they wonder why the guy with Manning, Moss, TO, Holmes, and Witten is kicking their ass. I've been an advocate of going huge at WR, top 5 at QB, and stockpiling risky backs for years and years . . . now people are finally catching on so I might tack back against the tide this year . . . Peace policy Edited August 26, 2008 by policyvote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 If I found a league where I could Romo in the middle of the 4th...I'd love to be in that league as I would know in round 1-3 I could load up on other positions because I could then land a quality qb in round 4. Explain the difference between ADP and "value"....isn't value determined to be whatever each individual owner would put on a player/position? In much the same way you value Romo to be only worthy of a mid 4th round selection many others value him higher....whether that be deemed ADP thinking or what have you...IF Romo is going "1 round too early" then either everyone of those folks is wrong, or you are, or it's all in the eyes/mind of the picker... KO'd It all depends if a person is trying to get tier 1 players where they can across the board, or load up on rb's and hope to get tier 2 at best, more likely tier 3 or lower elsewhere. I watched alot of teams with Brady or Manning taken 2nd rd and compete easily all year long. I don't see Romo or Brees being any different. To each their own drafting strategy but I don't think you'd find Romo anywhere in the 4th round, and if is like said prior, that doesn't mean the owners or league know what they're doing any more than any other league/team. I'll take a tier 1 player any position besides kicker/defense before I'll settle for a tier 3 rb. Besides, rb's are plentiful this year compared to any other year I can remember. I don't agree with BB on his percieved value or ADP on this one. Percieved value is what each person thinks the difference in drop off is between the tiers, and weigh that against the expectations of the other positions and their tiers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 (edited) Explain the difference between ADP and "value"....isn't value determined to be whatever each individual owner would put on a player/position? In much the same way you value Romo to be only worthy of a mid 4th round selection many others value him higher....whether that be deemed ADP thinking or what have you...IF Romo is going "1 round too early" then either everyone of those folks is wrong, or you are, or it's all in the eyes/mind of the picker... No, it's not based upon a specific opinion of the player. It's based upon the league's historical data for each position and then where you rank that player among others at his position. Then you make a comparison between positions by using a baseline for each position. For example, some use the "worst starter" method for their baseline (I do not happen to agree with this philosophy, but it's simple to understand so we'll use it). That means that if a 12 team league starts 1 QB and 2 RBs, you would determine using historical data how much the top 12 QBs have scored and how much the top 24 RBs have scored, and then subtract QB1 - QB12 = QB1's value. The same thing with RBs. You would take RB1 - RB24 = RB1's value. You do this with every player that you have ranked. It allows you to make a valid comprison of scoring between players at different positions to see which player allows you to maximize how much you can outscore you opponent by. Using these type of baseline value comparisons, QBs normally have relatively lower value because QBs tend to score fairly well across a broad group. RBs tend to have more value because the difference in scoring between upper level RBs is much greater than that of lower level RBs. So the only judgment being made here is where Romo fits as far as QB performance this year, and what your baseline is. Is he your QB3? QB4? If he is, his value probably places him as being worthy of being picked around the beginning to the middle of the 4th round. That means the difference between what your QB3/QB4 and your QB baseline has a smaller value than around 40 other players - very likely RBs and WRs with a couple of TEs sprinkled in. If his ADP is higher than that, it means he's being drafted too early by owners, and owners who bypass drafting Romo in say the late second round will be drafting other players who will give them a bigger scoring differential over their opponent's players at that position - and outscoring one's opponents is what wins FF matchups. In short, it means that while you might to totally jacked up about "stealing" Romo in the middle of the third round, Romo may be outscoring another owner's QB by 100 pts that season, but at the same time his RB2 will be outscoring your RB2 by 130 pts because you had to wait another round to get your RB2, and by that time the RB value had dropped another 40 or 50 pts. You got Romo at what you though was steal, but instead you put yourself in a 30 pt hole without even knowing it. That's the difference between value and ADP. And that's why a disciplined value based drafter is a very tough obstacle to overcome in FF leagues. Nothing is set in stone in FF, but following a valued based drafting system allows one to significantly enhance the odds of outperforming your opponents. And that's why I say that if you are convinced that you ought to be drafting Romo before his value is appropriate and other owners in the league aren't making the same mistake that you are, you're going to have a very rough time in that league. And just as likely, the odds are you'll never figure out why you thought you had such a good draft and still managed to get your head handed to you. Obviously, there's a lot more to FF than just the above. But using a value based system gives one an edge, and drafting against guys who use it without using it yourself puts you at an immediate disadvantage. It doesn't mean you can't win the league with luck, savvy WW pickups, etc. But why place yourself in a bad spot to start with while unwittingly providing an edge to your opponents? Edited August 27, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyalboyd Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. I vote for this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. Tell me this guy picked up Priest Holmes and Daunte Culpepper in the 2nd and 3rd! Peace policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. I think we have a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catfish Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Local 10 team redraft. Marion Barber 1.3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Local 10 team redraft. Marion Barber 1.3. I'd revisit this one at the end of the season-it may be an insightful pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fingfootball Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. ding, ding, ding That's just about got to be the worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. Surely this isn't real... I was sure that my nominee would win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barkusd Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 1.12 Darren McFadden 1.12 MJD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Last night local draft. I had a guy pick Mr. S. Alexander with the 1.4 pick. He stated, Mike Holgrem just resting him up for the pre-season. He will be the starter. That genius. Holmgren resting him on the free agant list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 27, 2008 Share Posted August 27, 2008 (edited) Local league here had 1.12 and 2.01 guy go Jon Kitna and Calvin Johnson. He also picked Jason Hanson with 7.12. Edited August 27, 2008 by MTSuper7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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