Most INSANE pick you've seen this year?

[loyalboyd]

That genius. Holmgren resting him on the free agant list.

 

 

I thought the same thing. And everyone was falling for it. I shook my head and said where da hell you get him from. But that's a local team for you.

[hulk51382]

This is no joke. I had my draft two weeks ago and had the number 2 pick. I was trying to decide all week to take either Peterson or Westbrook figuring LT would go first. The guy who had number one took Clinton Portis!?!? Everyone almost fell out of there seat. I don't know what he was thinking, but I was happy I got LT.

[Scooby]

Local (Texas) Romo went 1.2 and MoJo Drew went 1.10 from a guy on a cell phone caught in traffic. Of course, If you time out your auto pick is Gus Frerotte in our league...

[SheikYerbuti]

In my local the guy going 1.8 took Brady. Fine, whatever. Then in the 2nd round he took Peyton Manning.

 

"This way I can pick which one I want to start each week" was his reasoning.

 

[fingfootball]

In my local the guy going 1.8 took Brady. Fine, whatever. Then in the 2nd round he took Peyton Manning.

 

"This way I can pick which one I want to start each week" was his reasoning.

 

 

But not going to have to worry about picking RB's so much.

[TheBigE]

Last night at the road house

 

A Chick in the league picks Farve 9th pick in the 1st round.

[capostatus]

roethlisberger in the 2nd round........2.5 in a 12-team league. brees went a pick later.

 

coles in the 4th

[cory_n_az]

In my local the guy going 1.8 took Brady. Fine, whatever. Then in the 2nd round he took Peyton Manning.

 

"This way I can pick which one I want to start each week" was his reasoning.

 

 

I really don't think it's a bad strategy (if 6 pts per pass TD) if you're talking a Victory Points setup....you're taking points -- a top 2 QB -- away from the compeitition.

 

Obviously it's not ideal picking 2 straight QB's, but you can find starting RB's quite late this year.

Edited August 28, 2008 by cory_n_az

[The Holy Roller]

No, it's not based upon a specific opinion of the player. It's based upon the league's historical data for each position and then where you rank that player among others at his position. Then you make a comparison between positions by using a baseline for each position.

 

For example, some use the "worst starter" method for their baseline (I do not happen to agree with this philosophy, but it's simple to understand so we'll use it). That means that if a 12 team league starts 1 QB and 2 RBs, you would determine using historical data how much the top 12 QBs have scored and how much the top 24 RBs have scored, and then subtract QB1 - QB12 = QB1's value. The same thing with RBs. You would take RB1 - RB24 = RB1's value. You do this with every player that you have ranked. It allows you to make a valid comprison of scoring between players at different positions to see which player allows you to maximize how much you can outscore you opponent by.

 

Using these type of baseline value comparisons, QBs normally have relatively lower value because QBs tend to score fairly well across a broad group. RBs tend to have more value because the difference in scoring between upper level RBs is much greater than that of lower level RBs.

 

So the only judgment being made here is where Romo fits as far as QB performance this year, and what your baseline is. Is he your QB3? QB4? If he is, his value probably places him as being worthy of being picked around the beginning to the middle of the 4th round. That means the difference between what your QB3/QB4 and your QB baseline has a smaller value than around 40 other players - very likely RBs and WRs with a couple of TEs sprinkled in. If his ADP is higher than that, it means he's being drafted too early by owners, and owners who bypass drafting Romo in say the late second round will be drafting other players who will give them a bigger scoring differential over their opponent's players at that position - and outscoring one's opponents is what wins FF matchups.

 

In short, it means that while you might to totally jacked up about "stealing" Romo in the middle of the third round, Romo may be outscoring another owner's QB by 100 pts that season, but at the same time his RB2 will be outscoring your RB2 by 130 pts because you had to wait another round to get your RB2, and by that time the RB value had dropped another 40 or 50 pts. You got Romo at what you though was steal, but instead you put yourself in a 30 pt hole without even knowing it.

 

That's the difference between value and ADP. And that's why a disciplined value based drafter is a very tough obstacle to overcome in FF leagues. Nothing is set in stone in FF, but following a valued based drafting system allows one to significantly enhance the odds of outperforming your opponents. And that's why I say that if you are convinced that you ought to be drafting Romo before his value is appropriate and other owners in the league aren't making the same mistake that you are, you're going to have a very rough time in that league. And just as likely, the odds are you'll never figure out why you thought you had such a good draft and still managed to get your head handed to you.

 

Obviously, there's a lot more to FF than just the above. But using a value based system gives one an edge, and drafting against guys who use it without using it yourself puts you at an immediate disadvantage. It doesn't mean you can't win the league with luck, savvy WW pickups, etc. But why place yourself in a bad spot to start with while unwittingly providing an edge to your opponents?

 

That is about the best explanation (along with keen insight) of value based drafting I have read in a long time. My hat is off to you Mr. Bronco Billy.

 

 

 

And should I pick up Alexander with my 13th round pick in Good vs Evil? I mean. If he's just resting....

Edited August 28, 2008 by The Holy Roller

[Bronco Billy]

I really don't think it's a bad strategy (if 6 pts per pass TD) if you're talking a Victory Points setup....you're taking points -- a top 2 QB -- away from the compeitition.

 

Obviously it's not ideal picking 2 straight QB's, but you can find starting RB's quite late this year.

 

 

In a start 1 QB league, you are advocating picking both your #1 QB in the 1st round (which is already poor value right off the bat) and then drafting your bench QB before you ever pick another player at any other position?

 

Seriously?

[Largent]

Joey Galloway in the 3rd....his WR1.....he then went on to pick Reggie Brown/Kevin Curtis to round out his WR's

[MTSuper7]

roethlisberger in the 2nd round........2.5 in a 12-team league. brees went a pick later.

 

coles in the 4th

 

I was in a 12 team redraft league where both Roethlisberger and Palmer went in the 2nd. Brees went in the 3rd.

[Eagle2003]

In my local the guy going 1.8 took Brady. Fine, whatever. Then in the 2nd round he took Peyton Manning.

 

"This way I can pick which one I want to start each week" was his reasoning.

 

 

 

Don't they have the same bye week?

[Big John]

Don't they have the same bye week?

Yep, week 4

[brett21]

In a ten team league, no ppr, the guy drafting in the 5th spot took Randy Moss 1.5. That is not so bad, but then he took Reggie Bush in the 2.6, BRett Farve in the 3.5, and then took another QB, Drew Brees, in the 4th. We only start one qb and there were a lot of great recievers and rb on the board when he took Bush in the 2nd.

[Pope Flick]

I really don't think it's a bad strategy (if 6 pts per pass TD) if you're talking a Victory Points setup....you're taking points -- a top 2 QB -- away from the compeitition.

 

Obviously it's not ideal picking 2 straight QB's, but you can find starting RB's quite late this year.

 

 

OK - BB isn't getting through to you with his logic, so let's use yours: it's a bad idea. You are robbing yourself of a starter, while you are in fact MAYBE impacting a single other team(you only took 1 extra). So it's you and one other who are affected negatively, while the other ten continue on and have improved ahead of the two of you by YOUR mistake.

[cory_n_az]

OK - BB isn't getting through to you with his logic, so let's use yours: it's a bad idea. You are robbing yourself of a starter, while you are in fact MAYBE impacting a single other team(you only took 1 extra). So it's you and one other who are affected negatively, while the other ten continue on and have improved ahead of the two of you by YOUR mistake.

 

I don't think it's ever too difficult to deal Brady or Manning either.

 

6 perTD/PPR settings

 

Example draft:

1) Brady

2) Manning

3) Jacobs

4) Marshall

5) Cotchery

6) Forte

7) C.Perry (I believe he'll be starting) or Chris Johnson (who will outscore Lendale in a PPR setting)

8) Ginn

9) Heap

10) Bradshaw/Ward( (Ward is better pick IMO)

11) K. Watson

12)

 

Would I take 2 QB's with my first 2 picks? Probably not. I don't however think it automatically puts you behind the 8 ball. When someone has to start McNoodle every week and then he goes down like he does each and every year, I'm sure some desperate soul will come to you.

 

I'd have zero issue goingi into the season with something like the above. We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't agree with any of your statements above.

[Bronco Billy]

I don't think it's ever too difficult to deal Brady or Manning either.

 

That you're even thinking future trade value is pretty much an admission that the owner pulled a boner here.

 

You'd clearly be dealing from a position of weakness. It's pretty obvious that you'll need an upgrade at a RB/WR position to be competitive and any other owner with any brains would play to that weakness in a deal.

[cory_n_az]

That you're even thinking future trade value is pretty much an admission that the owner pulled a boner here.

 

You'd clearly be dealing from a position of weakness. It's pretty obvious that you'll need an upgrade at a RB/WR position to be competitive and any other owner with any brains would play to that weakness in a deal.

 

I would have no issue keeping both. (And wouldn't put out any offers involving them) I've never done the QB-QB scenario in a start 1 QB league, but the end result really isn't that bad. (Look at how many backs from last year drafted in the first 2 round were WORTHLESS in PPR leagues but for a handful of games-- Alexander/Cadillac/Benson/Rudi/Thomas Jones. That's not even including the ones that suffered significant in-season injuries. Would I of rather had Manning as my backup than these guys -- you bet your ass.

 

I posted above a very solid draft scenario. I certainly would have no issues taking over that team.

 

There's tons of solid RB's available in the Ronnd 5-8 area. (Miami backs/Carolina backs/TN backs/Chris Perry)

[darin3]

I'm not sure how much this relates, but I recommended to one of our Huddle brethren that he draft Manning with the first pick in a 3-player keeper when he already had Brees. Why? Because he and I were both pretty certain that he'd be able to trade one of his QBs after the draft.

 

FWIW, he passed on McFadden to take Manning. I figured the relative value of Manning was distinct enough to recommend taking Manning although he would probably (definitely?) end up trading him.

 

Sure enough, the draft ended and an owner that was over-run with good/solid RBs and had a lower-rung QB traded Westbrook to him for Manning.

[tazinib1]

I'm not sure how much this relates, but I recommended to one of our Huddle brethren that he draft Manning with the first pick in a 3-player keeper when he already had Brees. Why? Because he and I were both pretty certain that he'd be able to trade one of his QBs after the draft.

 

FWIW, he passed on McFadden to take Manning. I figured the relative value of Manning was distinct enough to recommend taking Manning although he would probably (definitely?) end up trading him.

 

Sure enough, the draft ended and an owner that was over-run with good/solid RBs and had a lower-rung QB traded Westbrook to him for Manning.

 

In a 3 player keeper, how is Peyton even available?

[darin3]

In a 3 player keeper, how is Peyton even available?

Good question... or is it?

 

If someone was scared off by his injury and Harrison's decline, who knows.

 

There was a story behind him not being kept... I'm forgetting what it was all about.

[whomper]

Non Mandatory TE league I saw Vernon Davis go in the 4th rd

[Big Ernie McCracken]

12 team redraft, same guy made both picks, 2nd round 21st overall Jay Cutler then 4th round 45th overall Julius Jones

[cory_n_az]

I'm not sure how much this relates, but I recommended to one of our Huddle brethren that he draft Manning with the first pick in a 3-player keeper when he already had Brees. Why? Because he and I were both pretty certain that he'd be able to trade one of his QBs after the draft.

 

FWIW, he passed on McFadden to take Manning. I figured the relative value of Manning was distinct enough to recommend taking Manning although he would probably (definitely?) end up trading him.

 

Sure enough, the draft ended and an owner that was over-run with good/solid RBs and had a lower-rung QB traded Westbrook to him for Manning.

 

I think it relates well here. I can't think of very many guys I'd rather be 'stuck' with than Peyton Manning (who has never missed a game). IEspecially in a keeper league, his value has not wavered one bit over the course of the last 5+ years.

 

While just look over the course of the last 3-4 years at the RB's whose value has went overboard (and I'm sure I'm missing quite a # of others)-- Dom Davis, Cadillac, Cedric, Alexander, Deuce, .Chester taylor. the Denver RB flavor of the year, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Rudi Johnson, Lamont Jordan. When I see bad dynasty/keeper teams for sale, they are usually the teams that invested their high picks on RB's that busted.

 

I'd rather own Peyton Manning and a lesser RB/WR than a 2nd round RB/WR and lesser QB. RB's careers are too short/values can be nill in a moment's notice & WR position is so contingent on the QB situation. If we all shared the same opinion, fantasy football wouldn't be worth playing.