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Who's personally helped by the stimulus?


Randall
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I can shop on my smoke breaks, everything we need they sell, I am so lucky.

 

I can go down the road to Haggen and get great food,......but I can get 5 fat rib eye steaks at Costco for 30$. And gas for for cheap....and Beer for cheap....and everything else for cheap if you buy it in bulk.

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your answer seemed to imply you have a problem with people shopping at noon hour, especially if they are men. As if you think these men should be working some job that time instead of out and about with their families. My response was that maybe they work different hours then you, and since it's summer time, maybe they choose to spend it out with the family.

 

So...are you serious? Please clarify for me what problem you have with the time of day these men are out shopping.

 

oh boy...I hate arguments...especially when someone draws all sorts of assumptions and now I have to over-clarify a few things....

 

1st off - I live in Philadelphia...it is not summer for over a year here.....for as long as I can remember....shopping areas are somewhat scarce around 1pm....at least up until about a year ago or so...

 

now the target in my area is always packed throughout the day....I have noticed a serious increase of day shoppers in the past year or so.....

 

...so much...that I made a post about it.....and I don't think that night jobs are opening up any more....if anything, they have cut back on night jobs so certain places can save on bills for running a facility or whatever it may be during all hours of the night....

 

your interpretation of what I said is quite slanted....because if it was something that I was used to seeing over the past...umm decade?....then I wouldn't have said anything...

 

the economy is bad....this is known...but what I HAVE BEEN seeing is pretty much a 24/7 shopping spree....not just the summer.....but since last winter...

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oh boy...I hate arguments...especially when someone draws all sorts of assumptions and now I have to over-clarify a few things....

 

1st off - I live in Philadelphia...it is not summer for over a year here.....for as long as I can remember....shopping areas are somewhat scarce around 1pm....at least up until about a year ago or so...

 

now the target in my area is always packed throughout the day....I have noticed a serious increase of day shoppers in the past year or so.....

 

...so much...that I made a post about it.....and I don't think that night jobs are opening up any more....if anything, they have cut back on night jobs so certain places can save on bills for running a facility or whatever it may be during all hours of the night....

 

your interpretation of what I said is quite slanted....because if it was something that I was used to seeing over the past...umm decade?....then I wouldn't have said anything...

 

the economy is bad....this is known...but what I HAVE BEEN seeing is pretty much a 24/7 shopping spree....not just the summer.....but since last winter...

 

 

well...i think you're assuming that these people can't afford to be spending their money. Or they shouldn't be out spending their money, the economy is bad! (yet, you're out spending some money on our lunch, correct? Couldn't you brown bag it? :wacko:

Yea, you got me confused, I'll admit that...and leave it at that.

 

 

and I don't think that night jobs are opening up any more....if anything, they have cut back on night jobs so certain places can save on bills for running a facility or whatever it may be during all hours of the night....

 

I will comment on this a little though, I think it depends on the business. If you've got a product to produce and enough of it to run 3 shifts, or deadlines that require night jobs, I think these days it's much easier to fill thse jobs as there are way more people willing to take that position then there were a few years ago.

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well...i think you're assuming that these people can't afford to be spending their money. Or they shouldn't be out spending their money, the economy is bad! (yet, you're out spending some money on our lunch, correct? Couldn't you brown bag it? :wacko:

Yea, you got me confused, I'll admit that...and leave it at that.

 

 

 

 

I will comment on this a little though, I think it depends on the business. If you've got a product to produce and enough of it to run 3 shifts, or deadlines that require night jobs, I think these days it's much easier to fill thse jobs as there are way more people willing to take that position then there were a few years ago.

 

 

your "confusion" is just a cop-out because you can't explain what I'm seeing.....and you shouldn't...there is nothing wrong with being able to explain what I've seen...

 

you want to discredit me....and that's fine, but you can't unless you actually saw what I have seen transpire over the past 18 months...

 

you turned my post into some sort of "the economy is bad...people shouldn't go out to lunch" bit.....when I'm seeing people going out to buy products like weedwackers, DVD players, small LCD TV's...microwaves in droves...

 

and then people think the economy is doing better now when it's really a facade...but what you believe is fine. You can even try to discredit what I'm seeing as if I am delusional or something, but there is something definitely wrong...

 

for one...our Country doesn't produce nearly as much as we used to and we've become nothing more than a service for ourselves along with mass consumption....that does not make for a strong economy and when people are taking their stimulus and/or unemployment checks only to go out and spend it frivolously, then that only proves that our upswing is temporary...

 

oh and....I friggin hate the stimulus package..

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your "confusion" is just a cop-out because you can't explain what I'm seeing.....and you shouldn't...there is nothing wrong with being able to explain what I've seen...

 

you want to discredit me....and that's fine, but you can't unless you actually saw what I have seen transpire over the past 18 months...

 

you turned my post into some sort of "the economy is bad...people shouldn't go out to lunch" bit.....when I'm seeing people going out to buy products like weedwackers, DVD players, small LCD TV's...microwaves in droves...

 

and then people think the economy is doing better now when it's really a facade...but what you believe is fine. You can even try to discredit what I'm seeing as if I am delusional or something, but there is something definitely wrong...

 

for one...our Country doesn't produce nearly as much as we used to and we've become nothing more than a service for ourselves along with mass consumption....that does not make for a strong economy and when people are taking their stimulus and/or unemployment checks only to go out and spend it frivolously, then that only proves that our upswing is temporary...

 

oh and....I friggin hate the stimulus package..

 

 

Yes, you're correct. I forgot, you want the economy and the country to fail. And when you see signs that it might not be going that way for you, you get upset. My bad.

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Yes, you're correct. I forgot, you want the economy and the country to fail. And when you see signs that it might not be going that way for you, you get upset. My bad.

 

 

:D...way to self destruct the conversation....but I knew you would try that again....

 

just when I made a point about what is wrong with this country....it's because I want the country to fail... :D

 

:wacko:

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:D...way to self destruct the conversation....but I knew you would try that again....

 

just when I made a point about what is wrong with this country....it's because I want the country to fail... :D

 

:wacko:

 

 

see...thats YOUR problem...the only point you're making is you don't like people out shopping.

 

Tell me why?

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see...thats YOUR problem...the only point you're making is you don't like people out shopping.

 

Tell me why?

 

 

..........wow.....you're deliberately missing my point to try and "win" this argument (deja vu?) instead of taking it for what it is....

 

even when our economy was booming....I never "families" out like this around noon....

 

I'm guessing there are just a lot more people working the 3rd shift now....I see my flaw, thank you Billy Balata :wacko:

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..........wow.....you're deliberately missing my point to try and "win" this argument (deja vu?) instead of taking it for what it is....

 

even when our economy was booming....I never "families" out like this around noon....

 

I'm guessing there are just a lot more people working the 3rd shift now....I see my flaw, thank you Billy Balata :wacko:

 

 

maybe it's because i think your point is stupid. You see more people shopping during the day when you never used to. So you think these people are stupid and it's an example of what's wrong with this country.

 

 

Just maybe....there are more people out shopping during the day....and it means nothing other then there are more people shopping during the day.

 

You and Dmarc need to start your own chicken little club....people are shopping during the day, the sky is falling!

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maybe it's because i think your point is stupid. You see more people shopping during the day when you never used to. So you think these people are stupid and it's an example of what's wrong with this country.

 

 

Just maybe....there are more people out shopping during the day....and it means nothing other then there are more people shopping during the day.

 

You and Dmarc need to start your own chicken little club....people are shopping during the day, the sky is falling!

 

 

you are totally right....shopping centers during the weekdays in the afternoon always look like a Saturday shopping center...and if they didn't...ever...there is absolutely nothing wrong with that...

 

what was I thinking?.... :wacko: ...

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NASA got money in the stimulus package, so some science experiments being conducted on the International Space Station are being funded instead of being cut. Most of the money is going to Universities.

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I heard on the radio (ABC News Break) either yesterday or this morning that for the first time in X(I forget) years Americans are now saving more than they spend. On average they are saving 4% of their income.

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I heard on the radio (ABC News Break) either yesterday or this morning that for the first time in X(I forget) years Americans are now saving more than they spend. On average they are saving 4% of their income.

It's actually only a couple years ago that the savings rate went fully negative for the first time, I think. It had been diminishing towards zero for a long time though. Used to be over 10% years ago, a fact largely accounted for by there being way more "essentials" now (cell phone, Internet, cable, flat screen TV, etc, etc) and built-in obsolescence necessitating more frequent replacement.

 

Edit: I wonder if those savings include 401k?

Edited by Ursa Majoris
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I've been preaching for some time that the other shoe to drop was the commercial mortgage disaster. Its almost here. In the last two weeks, Red Roof Inns and Extended Stay America both went under to massive debt loads that will be written off by their lenders as losses in the months ahead. Individual assets are being foreclosed upon every day (the famous Watergate Hotel declared just today). When these workouts are booked as losses, stock prices and earnings will tumble.

 

Even moreso will be the retail sector. As rosy as Target seems to be doing, others are getting crushed. When they go dark, the mall/landlords stop getting rent, and fall behind on their loans. Banks will get hammered here. Urban and suburban blight will follow.

 

From today's National Real Estate Investor newsletter:

 

Don’t be surprised on a long drive to find a strip mall or two abandoned along the highway, flamboyant signs askew and the empty parking lot looking eerily reminiscent of the 1980s, when commercial foreclosures and savings and loan failures were rampant. It’s not farfetched to anticipate a slew of mall closures, says Victor Calanog, director of research at New York data firm Reis. “I think we’re seeing it right now. We’re seeing a lot of properties in distress. I think a lot of malls will go dark.

 

Despite the differences in performance between regional malls and strip centers, both are facing difficulty. In the first quarter, the vacancy rate of regional malls reached a historical high of 7.9%, up from 5.9% a year earlier, says Calanog. The vacancy rate of strip malls also rose by 200 basis points to 9.5%. “It’s something we haven’t seen since 1994.”

 

As for retail property sales — forget it. “Nothing’s really trading. The inventory of properties for sale is getting greater,” says Jessica Ruderman, senior analyst at New York-based research firm Real Capital Analytics, which tracks sales of $5 million or greater. From January through May, sales volume declined 70% from 2008 levels, Ruderman says.

 

Hampered by credit and valuation issues, investors are stymied. Through May 2009, retail property sales totaled $3.1 billion, a far cry from the $19 billion in sales over the same period of 2008, and dramatically less than the $62.2 billion recorded during the robust market of 2007.

Like investors, consumers are embattled. The nation’s unemployment rate lurched to 9.4% in May, up from 8.9% the previous month, and it’s small wonder that with payroll employment declining by 6 million since the recession started that Americans have put the brakes on spending.

 

“Why would you go out there and spend?” asks Calanog. Personal incomes and 401K programs have taken a hit. Home prices are falling. “Your future expected income is under assault. You’re not sure if you can keep your job.”

 

In the retail industry, traditional wisdom held that if a consumer lost his job, he would still drive to the neighborhood strip center and buy milk for his children, ensuring stability for grocery-anchored shopping centers. Purchases driven by necessity — for food, prescription medicine — gave grocery landlords an edge over mall owners whose tenants sold fashions and other non-necessities geared to discretionary spending.

But a new trend is profoundly affecting grocery and pharmacy-anchored strip centers: Competition from discounters like Wal-Mart, based in Bentonville, Ark., and Costco Wholesale Corp., based in Issaquah, Wash., who have carved out grocery departments in their big box stores. An estimated 40% of Wal-Mart’s revenues come from groceries, according to Reis. Adding to the strain on supermarkets and their landlords, drug chains like Walgreens are expanding their grocery sections.

 

Retail tenants forced to downsize or face closure are pressuring landlords for concessions to ease their financial burdens. Meanwhile, conditions deteriorated markedly at the neighborhood and community centers in the first quarter. According to Reis, negative net absorption of 8.2 million sq. ft. set a single-period record in the first quarter.

 

And that wasn’t the only unwelcome news. The change in asking rents of negative 0.6% for the strip centers represented the biggest quarterly decline since at least 1999, Reis reports. Asking rents have been dropping since the third quarter of 2008. Effective rents also fell at a dizzying pace in the first quarter, 1.8%, reflecting landlord concessions.

 

Most cities are unlikely to command higher rents anytime soon. “I’m not forecasting a recovery for retail until well into 2012,” says Calanog of Reis. Retail has the most pessimistic outlook of all the commercial real estate sectors, he says. Although recovery will take years, he concedes one thing. “Everyone’s waiting with baited breath.

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Around these parts Opus is a major developer with five autonomous regional companies. Minneapolis, Chicago, Phoenix , Atlanta and Washington DC. Two of the last three have filed for bankruptcy in the last few weeks and the third will do so next week.

 

It sucks to be in commercial development right now, which is why I'm glad we never really got into it except for minor dabbling.

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In the last 2 years, 5 strip malls were being built right in this immediate vicinity. The first of these opened and is majorly occupied. One other has exactly one slot occupied and the rest vacant. One appears to have been completed but has no tenants, and the other 2 have stopped building midstream with partially completed buildings..

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