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Drafts Thus Far: Who's Hot, Who's Not


TDFFFreak
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I am done or currently working through 3 drafts thus far (all PPR, standard scoring) and these are my observations of players that are hot (picked earlier than I thought) and not (players picked much later than I thought). Nothing too scientific about this, just observations based on my player list and the Huddle lists. Something to keep in mind as you draft and want one of these players.

 

Hot Players:

Forte (I've seen him go as early as #2, but he's not making it past pick #5 in any of my drafts)

DeAngello Williams (Maybe the injury to Stewart is making his stock rise?)

Ray Rice

Larry Johnson (This one baffles me. I guess name recognition?)

LeSean McCoy (I wonder if this is more a feeling about the lack of confidence in Westbrook staying healthy, or high confidence in McCoy's ability)

Boldin (I've seen him regularly selected before Bowe, Colston, OchoCinco, Housh and Steve Smith)

DeSean Jackson (a lot of love for a player in an offense that spreads the ball around)

Anthony Gonzales (in every one of my drafts I have seen someone reach for this guy)

Eddie Royal (profits from Marshall's problems?)

Vincent Jackson (there seems to be 2 camps with him: one says LT and Gates will take rec away from him, but the guys in my drafts expect more of the same from last year.)

Greg Olsen (Not sure this guy is much of a hidden gem. In every draft which requires a TE, he has been taken before Winslow, sometimes Clark and pretty early)

Phillip Rivers (He has been the first QB off the board in every draft after the tier 1 QBs are gone)

 

Not Hot

Barber (has fallen deep into the 2nd round in every draft)

Moreno (the last of the tier 2 RBs taken almost every time. Could be a huge steal if healthy.)

Julius Jones (People just don't believe in the guy even though he's supposedly the starter.)

Coles (afraid of little injuries? Palmer's injurues? Not sure...)

Matt Ryan (I don't get it. Do people think he's going to come back to earth that much?)

Edited by TDFFFreak
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I have seen a lot of play on the upside RBBC guys like Leon Washington, LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw. These guys are going to be valuable and I have seen guys pay as high as a mid 6th for them. Other popular guys have been AGonzalez and Ray Rice (moving all the way up to the 3rd round in some). Guys dropping have been JStewart, Bush, Lynch and Brandon Marshall.

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Pierre Thomas has been going higher and higher in every draft I see.

 

As for Matt Ryan, yes I do believe people think last year was more of an anomoly then what the norm will be for him. I like him , but would feel more comfortable if he was my QB2.

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Not Hot

Matt Ryan (I don't get it. Do people think he's going to come back to earth that much?)

Actually, I don't know why anyone would be willing to draft this guy as a starter. The guy was a good rookie QB by NFL standards, by fantasy standards he was a bottom tier QB. I think he threw 16 TDs last year - that ain't gonna cut it on any fantasy team if you're relying on him as a starter. He would need a 25% increase in TD production (20 TDs) just to be considered a low-end #2 QB on my team. I won't be drafting Ryan this year.

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Actually, I don't know why anyone would be willing to draft this guy as a starter. The guy was a good rookie QB by NFL standards, by fantasy standards he was a bottom tier QB. I think he threw 16 TDs last year - that ain't gonna cut it on any fantasy team if you're relying on him as a starter. He would need a 25% increase in TD production (20 TDs) just to be considered a low-end #2 QB on my team. I won't be drafting Ryan this year.

Oh poopy - I just realized I'm in a high stakes BOTH league with TDFFFreak this year. My above post was a complete lie, I think Ryan is gonna be an UBER stud this year. Everyone should be drafting this guy as their #1!!!

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Actually, I don't know why anyone would be willing to draft this guy as a starter. The guy was a good rookie QB by NFL standards, by fantasy standards he was a bottom tier QB. I think he threw 16 TDs last year - that ain't gonna cut it on any fantasy team if you're relying on him as a starter. He would need a 25% increase in TD production (20 TDs) just to be considered a low-end #2 QB on my team. I won't be drafting Ryan this year.

Another year experience for him and Turner and the addition of Gonzo should keep things at least on a level.

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Another year experience for him and Turner and the addition of Gonzo should keep things at least on a level.

Well, like I stated earlier, he would have to increase TDs by 25% just to be a low-end #2 QB. A 50% increase brings him to a low-end starter. Do you really think he will increase his TD production by 50%?!?! I don't. That's a big spike in one year - especially considering his schedule is tougher, defenses have more film on him to gameplan... The more people that target him is good for me, so do what you will - but the optimism surrounding him is baffling to my eyes. After another couple of years, yes, he could very easily be a true #1 fantasy QB - reaching for him this year is premature, IMHO.

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Oh poopy - I just realized I'm in a high stakes BOTH league with TDFFFreak this year. My above post was a complete lie, I think Ryan is gonna be an UBER stud this year. Everyone should be drafting this guy as their #1!!!

Make note: steal Ryan from Brent.

 

Another year experience for him and Turner and the addition of Gonzo should keep things at least on a level.

Those are my thoughts, but it appears as if the Brentastics of the fantasy world are the majority.

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Make note: steal Ryan from Brent.

 

 

Those are my thoughts, but it appears as if the Brentastics of the fantasy world are the majority.

Please draft him as your #1QB in the BDITH league!! And don'tcompare me to the majority based on my assesment of one player :wacko:

 

Don't worry though, I will bump this thread at the end of the season when Ryan produces another sub-par fantasy season. But by all means, draft him early and often in all your leagues, especially BDITH!!!

 

Are you interested in a side bet on his production this season?

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not at all surprised Rivers was the 4th QB taken, Cutler (no more a high flier), Warner (old), Rodgers (has not done it more than one season).

 

I believe Rivers is #4

 

I like Boldin more than those other WRs you listed (except for SS)

Edited by rai
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Please draft him as your #1QB in the BDITH league!! And don'tcompare me to the majority based on my assesment of one player :wacko:

 

Don't worry though, I will bump this thread at the end of the season when Ryan produces another sub-par fantasy season. But by all means, draft him early and often in all your leagues, especially BDITH!!!

 

Are you interested in a side bet on his production this season?

No side bet wanted, but I do think Ryan has the potential to be within the top 12 of fantasy QBs. Am I confident? No, but he has the skills and talent all around him to make it happen IMO.

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Well Brent.....you make 25% sounds like a HUGH obstacle. 25% of 16.....is only 4 more passing TDs. :wacko:

 

If you are in a TD only league.....sure.....2nd tier. 20 TD with the same yardage as last year still puts him about #11 or #12 on the top performers list. And in a 12 team league...that makes him SOMEONE'S #1......LOL. :D

 

My personal feeling is this. Tougher rushing schedule for the Falcons this year might mean Ryan will be throwing more. And now he has Gonzo. If he only raises his overall production by about 20%, that puts him in the yardage area of Peyton, Rivers and Rodgers last year. Still a little low in TDs...but I think a few more TDs should seem inevitable with one year under his belt and an extra bigtime playmaker to throw to. :D

 

I still think he finishes about 6 or 7 in performance league points.

 

And yeah......I reached a bit for him as my #1. But there were already 7 QBs taken by then. Maybe not such a reach. :D

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There are roughly 35+ RBs I would take before Julius Jones. His O-line is now relying on guys that were cut from the CHIEFS and he has to fight for carries with Edge for who will average less than 3 yards a rush this year . . .

I had Jones last year. Never never again I'll draft J Stewert befor i'll draft Jones.

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and yes Marshall is dropping like a rock in water. got him today as my 4th WR in the 7th rd. I mean hell if he happens to perform I got a steal if not he just sits he was just a bye week filler anyway.

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Well Brent.....you make 25% sounds like a HUGH obstacle. 25% of 16.....is only 4 more passing TDs. :wacko:

 

If you are in a TD only league.....sure.....2nd tier. 20 TD with the same yardage as last year still puts him about #11 or #12 on the top performers list. And in a 12 team league...that makes him SOMEONE'S #1......LOL. :D

 

My personal feeling is this. Tougher rushing schedule for the Falcons this year might mean Ryan will be throwing more. And now he has Gonzo. If he only raises his overall production by about 20%, that puts him in the yardage area of Peyton, Rivers and Rodgers last year. Still a little low in TDs...but I think a few more TDs should seem inevitable with one year under his belt and an extra bigtime playmaker to throw to. :D

 

I still think he finishes about 6 or 7 in performance league points.

 

And yeah......I reached a bit for him as my #1. But there were already 7 QBs taken by then. Maybe not such a reach. :D

You're right, 20 TDs does put him as a bottom level starter (12th best) but to me, there are a bunch of guys you could get later that have a higher probability of performing better. Ryan's current ADP is 9th of all the QBs - that's ahead of Palmer, Cutler, Roethlisberger, Schaub, Eli and Hasselbeck. I would rather have all of those QBs over Ryan. Obviously, the majority of drafters feel differently than I - but I'll pass on Ryan as the 9th best QB. In fact, I'll side bet anyone that Ryan does not crack the top 12 for QBs this year.

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Hmmm....I think Ill jump on that.

 

name the wager (nothing outrageous.....father of 4 here :wacko:

 

How about a six-pack of local brews?

You got a deal. I propose this scoring system that I will be using in the new BDITH B.O.T.H. league because the league is loaded with regular board members, so the stats are easily verified!

 

Scoring Rules

0.05pts / passing yard

0.10pt / rushing / receiving yard

0.20pt / rushing attempt

0.20pt / RB reception

1.50pt / WR reception

2.00pt / TE reception

6.00pt / TD

-3.00pt / INT

2.00pt / two point conversion (pass, catch or rush)

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