keggerz Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Don't waves just go one way? Shouldn't it be the Elliot Tide Theory? Afterall it is tides that rise and fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Don't waves just go one way? Shouldn't it be the Elliot Tide Theory? Afterall it is tides that rise and fall Yes, but waves have a trough and an apex. That is all I have to add to this thread, thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 The bolded part is simply Flat. Out. Wrong. In this day and age we get the news, and have access to those 'trends' at the same time as everyone else, in the day and age of blogs, tweets, etc. Case in point - Iran last summer. No one could forsee the election results or reactions, it played out moment to moment to the entire world in real time. That simply didn't exist in the 1940's making that quote very very out of date in terms of its actual relevancy. Looks like the stock market news cycle has finally caught up to the Fantasy Football industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Don't waves just go one way? Shouldn't it be the Elliot Tide Theory? Afterall it is tides that rise and fall Maybe some empires will rise and fall before this is settled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Don't waves just go one way? Shouldn't it be the Elliot Tide Theory? Afterall it is tides that rise and fall Everytime I hear it, I think of the Wave Gun in Starblazers I used to watch as a kid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Maybe some empires will rise and fall before this is settled. Maybe it could be called the Elliot Particle theory... Whenever you shine a light on it or it runs into an obstruction it can disburse in different directions... But, and here is the good part, it still can be proven to be a particle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 The bolded part is simply Flat. Out. Wrong. In this day and age we get the news, and have access to those 'trends' at the same time as everyone else, in the day and age of blogs, tweets, etc. Case in point - Iran last summer. No one could forsee the election results or reactions, it played out moment to moment to the entire world in real time. That simply didn't exist in the 1940's making that quote very very out of date in terms of its actual relevancy. I'm not talking about the release of news, I'm talking about the CEO of GS knowing things before the news world releases it. I think the disconnect here is that you, as well as most people, don't think of stock movement on the macro level. For instance, the corruption that GS is being accused of now is only relevant because we're in a bear market. GS was committing similar fraudulent acts during the boom years of the 90s but the investing public paid little or no attention because the collective mood was positive. Case in point - many companies are showing record earnings, yet the market is down 500+ points from it's Apr 26 peak - why is that? Because the collective mood is negative. If the collective mood was optimistic, the market would be up not down. The point is that any given day or any given time frame, there are tons of varrying news stories (positive and negative) yet only one of those news items moves the market? That's so illogical, I can't even wrap my head around it. 'Analysts' can always find a story that fits the market direction and in the short-term they are sometimes correct. In the long-term, the market determines what news stories rise to the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Everytime I hear it, I think of the Wave Gun in Starblazers I used to watch as a kid. And they only fired that thing up, when things got really hairy, like Whomper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evil_gop_liars Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 This thread is taking on the Elliott Gould theory, it's not very funny and it keeps getting uglier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 If the market trades on news, how is that Fannie Mae is up on the day even though this bit of news was released: Fannie Mae reports $11.5B loss, requests $8.4B to stay afloat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 If the market trades on news, how is that Fannie Mae is up on the day even though this bit of news was released: I would say that this might have something to do with it. "Fannie lost $23.2 billion in the same period a year ago." link That bit of news may not have been unexpected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 If the market trades on news, how is that Fannie Mae is up on the day even though this bit of news was released: and the usg isnt letting fnm go under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 and the usg isnt letting fnm go under. Any news>stock correlation can be justified which is exactly why stocks don't move on news in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 This thread is taking on the Elliott Gould theory, it's not very funny and it keeps getting uglier. Who is Elliot Gould? One of the 3 Jew Investors that control the stock market up until the Elliot Wave hits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 Here's an interesting tidbit about today's large advance. This quote is taken from my EW subscription that was released today - interesting correlation regardless of which side of the market you're on: Finally, here is a piece of market information that we got through Bianco Research this morning (BiancoResearch.com). "According to Bespoke Investment, today will be the third largest opening in S&P 500’s history. The two larger opens share a lot in common with today: [1] Friday, September 19, 2008 — the night before the TARP was leaked to the market (starting with Gasparino on CNBC). Lehman had failed five days earlier; [2] Monday, October 13, 2008 — This was the day all the heads of the 9 largest banks were called into the Treasury and forced to take TARP money as a capital injection ($125 billion in total)." Today's open was the announcement of “Europe’s TARP,” the equivalent of "America's Tarp." As Bianco notes, and the previous two dates should make clear, the prior two instances led to a sharp decline for the next six months, as Primary wave 1 (circle) carried prices lower until March 2009. In fact, the spectacular gains registered on September 19, 2008 were taken back one trading day later. The gains of October 13 were more sustained; lasting all of two days. This latter date is interesting in that the NYSE advance/decline ratio closed that day at a whopping positive 18:1, exactly the same a/d ratio that today's rally delivered, as shown on the above chart. Regardless of the exact near-term timing, our interpretation of the wave structure indicates that once the current bounce is exhausted, a significant market decline will be at hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 That's a cute little guy on youtube, Brent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 That's a cute little guy on youtube, Brent. A positive comment Thanks, Mike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Who is Elliot Gould? One of the 3 Jew Investors that control the stock market up until the Elliot Wave hits? No that is the Chris Elliot Effect, otherwise known as the "Cabinboy Maneuver" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 I'm curious, those of you attacking me, how many are actually buying right now in the market? If not, you are displaying bullying behavior and enjoy attacking people with unusual ideas (which is another trait of sheep)? If you're long the market, I can understand your frustration - if not, I feel sorry for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 I'm curious, those of you attacking me, how many are actually buying right now in the market? If not, you are displaying bullying behavior and enjoy attacking people with unusual ideas (which is another trait of sheep)? If you're long the market, I can understand your frustration - if not, I feel sorry for you. I'm still pumping my 401k money into high risk/reward funds, if that's your question. I thought about bailing on Sunday but just recouped five figures today so it's as well I didn't. I still think you are overstating the case and forgetting a few things too. There are few that profit from a bear market of the type you are touting and therefore there is far greater incentive for the hugh majority of investors and other players to work in the opposite direction. I also consider it likely that if things did transpire the way you think they will, we'll all have a crapload more than our 401k values to worry about because the exchange levels you foresee will usher in societal breakdown on a monumental scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 (edited) I'm curious, those of you attacking me, how many are actually buying right now in the market? If not, you are displaying bullying behavior and enjoy attacking people with unusual ideas (which is another trait of sheep)? If you're long the market, I can understand your frustration - if not, I feel sorry for you. From April 27 to May 5th, I took money completely out of several different World funds, and growth funds. I still have a portion in High income and bond funds and 25% is in cash. I didn't pull out just because of things happening in Greece. I just think that some economic reports may not look so good a month or two from now. I don't think the sky is falling, but I don't see any confidence in the market for now. I usually don't move in and out of markets for any single reason. New money is getting pumped into the aggressive funds however. Edited May 11, 2010 by MikesVikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 Seriously, has anyone got a number for how much the IMF has given to keep Greece solvent? Does anyone know how much the USA funds the IMF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 Seriously, has anyone got a number for how much the IMF has given to keep Greece solvent? Does anyone know how much the USA funds the IMF? 300 billion dollars from the IMF. That part gave the US official standing in the crisis so it helped move the useless prevaricators of the EU along. Not sure what proportion of the IMF we fund. The $1 trillion package consists of 440 billion euros in guarantees from euro area states, plus 60 billion euros in a European stabilization fund that could be disbursed to help euro zone states if needed on strict austerity conditions. EU finance ministers said the IMF would contribute up to 250 billion euros for a total of 750 billion, about $1 trillion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 300 billion dollars from the IMF. That part gave the US official standing in the crisis so it helped move the useless prevaricators of the EU along. Not sure what proportion of the IMF we fund. Typically I believe the US funds roughly 20% of the IMF, if that is the case then we are paying roughly $60 Billion so that their government employees don't have to take pay cuts, and can continue to get paid for 54 week a year. Don't you love world government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 I think the total bailout for Greece (euro) was close to a trillion - 960 something... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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