godtomsatan Posted January 14, 2005 Share Posted January 14, 2005 Not only did I lose my shirt last weekend, someone got it wet and proceeded to beat me with it. Curious about what you players think on the divisional matchups coming up? There's a website I check out that has polls as to how people are betting, respondants say overwhelmingly (67% or more) Jets, Rams, Vikings, Colts. Not sure what I'll actually play yet, but here's the picks I'm leaning towards: Pittsburgh -8.5, UNDER 34.5 St. Louis +7, UNDER 48 Minnesota +8.5, OVER 48 New England -2, UNDER 51 Pittsburgh's the closest thing to a lock, IMO, and Minnesota is going to be the big upset. Those are the strongest feelings I got. I even got sweet handicapper trends to back them both up. I won't bet on the STL-ATL game, simply because there's really no trend worth noting. Falcons win a close one. I'll probably stay away from the really big game as well, but everyone's sure high on the Colts. The Pats have covered every time these two teams have met up since 1999 except for the push in September. And they are at home. And it's cold. I just don't see Indy doing it. Not that I'm an expert or anything, just fun to lay out the picks to come back and eat crow on Monday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted January 14, 2005 Share Posted January 14, 2005 Not that any of this matters, but you said you couldn't find any trends for the Atlanta/Rams game. Here you go. Good Luck. The Rams had lost 5 straight road games by 13 points or more before upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle last week. I don’t expect St. Louis to duplicate that effort this week, as teams that win straight up as an underdog in a playoff game are just 13-29 ATS on the road the next week when not getting at least 10 points. Also, teams that were 10-6 or worse in the regular season are bad bets on the road from this round on, going just 22-42-2 ATS – and just 15-34-1 ATS when not getting double-digits. Atlanta rested their starters in the final two weeks of the season and lost both games, but playoff home teams coming off a loss are 33-15-1 ATS, including 26-8-1 ATS for teams with a win percentage of .625 or better that are not favored by more than 8 points. A lot of those teams lost because they had the luxury of resting players, so this angle is just as much about having rested players as it is about bouncing back after a legitimate loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted January 14, 2005 Share Posted January 14, 2005 I almost never go with 'trends' as I think there are a million different treds that you can use to justify your pick, and for a trend to be "significant" you are going so far back that you are dealing with teams that are radically different from the ones taking the field today. Last week is the first time I invoked and used trends to justify my GB pick. And we saw where that got me. Last week end killed me. The only that got me through the brutality of having my bookie repeatedly plunging my head in the toilet until I was this close to drowning was looking over to see Godtomsatan mouthing the words "be strong" as his bookie was clamping electrodes to his testicles. So far I'm going with the Pats on blind homerism alone and have only put 20$ on it. And $40 on the Jets to cover that really high spread of 9 points (they'll lose, but cover) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted January 14, 2005 Share Posted January 14, 2005 I'm thinking under on the Atl/StLouis game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted January 14, 2005 Author Share Posted January 14, 2005 Not that any of this matters, but you said you couldn't find any trends for the Atlanta/Rams game. Here you go. Good Luck. 654073[/snapback] Oh, there are always trends. I meant a trend that actually stuck out, like "Minnesota has covered, gone over, and won outright 4 of the last 5 games they've been a TD+ underdog on the road". The league wide numbers are always a good one to analyze, since I usually just find team "trends" to play.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedroz13 Posted January 14, 2005 Share Posted January 14, 2005 I know these are all solid stats and should be helpful , but take a look at last weekend....no 8-8 team had ever won a playoff game ( I believe that is what I heard before last weekend ...please correct me if I'm wrong ) , and it happened TWICE last weekend. Three underdogs won straight up , two of them considerable underdogs ( STL and MN ) . Will that trend continue ? I certainly hope so since I have futures on MN , STL and NYJ at 45-1 ( MN ) and the other two are 50-1 and 60-1 to win it all. But that is probably just wishful thinking ..I am not sure how much I really trust the underdogs this weekend. I don't really think NYJ has much of a chance in PITT. I do like MN and the points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben-waa Posted January 15, 2005 Share Posted January 15, 2005 Can you play teasers? I usually put together (1) 3 Team Teaser. I get 9 pts on each play in my favor. I can play totals as well...for instance, my teaser for this week would probably be: Pittsburgh + 1/2 Pit/NYJ OVER 25.5 (I'm thinking at least 1 DEF TD, or turnonver that leads to pts.) Minnesota +17.5 Just something to think about. ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted January 15, 2005 Share Posted January 15, 2005 Vikes might win, but go under in that game. Philly's D is enough to hold the Vikes to respectability (no more than 4 scores). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpin Johnies Posted January 15, 2005 Share Posted January 15, 2005 Not only did I lose my shirt last weekend, someone got it wet and proceeded to beat me with it. Curious about what you players think on the divisional matchups coming up? There's a website I check out that has polls as to how people are betting, respondants say overwhelmingly (67% or more) Jets, Rams, Vikings, Colts. Not sure what I'll actually play yet, but here's the picks I'm leaning towards: Pittsburgh -8.5, UNDER 34.5 St. Louis +7, UNDER 48 Minnesota +8.5, OVER 48 New England -2, UNDER 51 Pittsburgh's the closest thing to a lock, IMO, and Minnesota is going to be the big upset. Those are the strongest feelings I got. I even got sweet handicapper trends to back them both up. I used to bet a lot before I found fantasy football. Sportsbook.com is the best place to make a bet. Anyways I would take the Jets with points and not mess with the over/under. Don't touch the Rams and Falcons or the Eagles and Vikings. Take the Colts and don't fool with the over/under. I won't bet on the STL-ATL game, simply because there's really no trend worth noting. Falcons win a close one. I'll probably stay away from the really big game as well, but everyone's sure high on the Colts. The Pats have covered every time these two teams have met up since 1999 except for the push in September. And they are at home. And it's cold. I just don't see Indy doing it. Not that I'm an expert or anything, just fun to lay out the picks to come back and eat crow on Monday morning. 653939[/snapback] I used to bet a lot before I found fantasy football. Sportsbook.com is the best place to make a bet. Anyways I would take the Jets with points and not mess with the over/under. Don't touch the Rams and Falcons or the Eagles and Vikings. Take the Colts and don't fool with the over/under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 15, 2005 Share Posted January 15, 2005 playing the favorites this weekend and laying the wood. i also have mutliple bets with a bunch of bandwagon jumping colts fans at work. i have given them 2/1 odds that they won't make the superbowl. 3 people took me up on the offer at 25 bucks each. i'll either win 75 or lose 150. another bandwagoner gave me the pats this week straight up for another quarter. i just don't see how the colts are going to win 2 road games in the cold against 2 very strong defensive teams. the over/unders on most of these games this week seem to be tight. coin tosses if u ask me. good luck all and goooooooo STEELERS!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted January 15, 2005 Share Posted January 15, 2005 Jets / Steelers will go over 34.5 in my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 Jets / Steelers will go over 34.5 in my opinion 655982[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben-waa Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 Can you play teasers? I usually put together (1) 3 Team Teaser. I get 9 pts on each play in my favor. I can play totals as well...for instance, my teaser for this week would probably be: Pittsburgh + 1/2 Pit/NYJ OVER 25.5 (I'm thinking at least 1 DEF TD, or turnonver that leads to pts.) Minnesota +17.5 Just something to think about. ben 655383[/snapback] So far, so good... 2 out of 3 so far. If Minny can keep it close, we got a winner. Did anyone get on any action this weekend? Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpin Johnies Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 I'm 1 for 1 on predictions so far. You simply need to know when to place a bet and which team to place it on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 Not that any of this matters, but you said you couldn't find any trends for the Atlanta/Rams game. Here you go. Good Luck. The Rams had lost 5 straight road games by 13 points or more before upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle last week. I don’t expect St. Louis to duplicate that effort this week, as teams that win straight up as an underdog in a playoff game are just 13-29 ATS on the road the next week when not getting at least 10 points. Also, teams that were 10-6 or worse in the regular season are bad bets on the road from this round on, going just 22-42-2 ATS – and just 15-34-1 ATS when not getting double-digits. Atlanta rested their starters in the final two weeks of the season and lost both games, but playoff home teams coming off a loss are 33-15-1 ATS, including 26-8-1 ATS for teams with a win percentage of .625 or better that are not favored by more than 8 points. A lot of those teams lost because they had the luxury of resting players, so this angle is just as much about having rested players as it is about bouncing back after a legitimate loss. 654073[/snapback] Circle it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 You simply need to know when to place a bet and which team to place it on. 656537[/snapback] Ooooh. So that's how it's done.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpin Johnies Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 (edited) Ooooh. So that's how it's done.... 656715[/snapback] I drop knowledge Doc. Edited January 16, 2005 by Jumpin Johnies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonehand Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 Not sure what I'll actually play yet, but here's the picks I'm leaning towards: Pittsburgh -8.5, UNDER 34.5 St. Louis +7, UNDER 48 Minnesota +8.5, OVER 48 New England -2, UNDER 51 Not that I'm an expert or anything, just fun to lay out the picks to come back and eat crow on Monday morning. 653939[/snapback] Ouch, GTS! So, Pittsburgh doesn't cover, & St Louis gets smoked. And the weekend isn't even over. At this rate in comparison you will look back on the days of being beat with your own wet shirt with fond remembrance... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 i escaped with a modest profit even though i went 1-1 on the spreads betting on the favorites. i also had 1st quarter bets on the home teams which won me a little. i'm starting to like the under on the colts/pats game a bit. interesting to note, the spread is now a pickem with the colts/pats. alot of dummy money coming in on the colts imo. 28th ranked rush d going against dillon. give me the pats and under for 50. give me the pats and under 1st half for a quarter. teaser, pats and eagles for 50. 4 team parlay, for ***s and giggles, patriots and under and philly and over for 20 bucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 I hope todays bets come through for you crispy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted January 16, 2005 Share Posted January 16, 2005 Can you play teasers? I usually put together (1) 3 Team Teaser. I get 9 pts on each play in my favor. I can play totals as well...for instance, my teaser for this week would probably be: Pittsburgh + 1/2 Pit/NYJ OVER 25.5 (I'm thinking at least 1 DEF TD, or turnonver that leads to pts.) Minnesota +17.5 Just something to think about. ben 655383[/snapback] Nicely done. Even if you were pretty dang lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben-waa Posted January 17, 2005 Share Posted January 17, 2005 (edited) Nicely done. Even if you were pretty dang lucky. 657014[/snapback] Thanks, Jack... I was pulling my hair out on the Minny game... I am a NE homer, and I let my heart rule my betting on the Colts/Pats game...I got NE at -2.5 I saw that the game had gone down to a PK, and I saw the forecast...and I played a 2 team parlay...Pats/UNDER... Good week for me... Ben Edited January 17, 2005 by Ben-waa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted January 17, 2005 Share Posted January 17, 2005 I hope todays bets come through for you crispy. 656831[/snapback] thanks and they did for the most part. i won 100 bucks from the chumps at work, and won all the bets listed above except the 4 teamer, which should have gone over with some minny offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted January 18, 2005 Author Share Posted January 18, 2005 Not only did I lose my shirt last weekend, someone got it wet and proceeded to beat me with it. Curious about what you players think on the divisional matchups coming up? There's a website I check out that has polls as to how people are betting, respondants say overwhelmingly (67% or more) Jets, Rams, Vikings, Colts. Not sure what I'll actually play yet, but here's the picks I'm leaning towards: Pittsburgh -8.5, UNDER 34.5 St. Louis +7, UNDER 48 Minnesota +8.5, OVER 48 New England -2, UNDER 51 Pittsburgh's the closest thing to a lock, IMO, and Minnesota is going to be the big upset. Those are the strongest feelings I got. I even got sweet handicapper trends to back them both up. I won't bet on the STL-ATL game, simply because there's really no trend worth noting. Falcons win a close one. I'll probably stay away from the really big game as well, but everyone's sure high on the Colts. The Pats have covered every time these two teams have met up since 1999 except for the push in September. And they are at home. And it's cold. I just don't see Indy doing it. Not that I'm an expert or anything, just fun to lay out the picks to come back and eat crow on Monday morning. 653939[/snapback] It's Monday afternoon, going on evening, but I will eat some crow regardless.... If you bet against me, you would have gone 3 for 4 ATS, and 3 for 4 O/U. At least New England makes me look like a genius. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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