Peyton the #1 overall?

[DangerousDave]

I just read the article on the main page, "The Case for Peyton Manning," and I found it very compelling. Speaking to the other owners in my league, everyone had hard-ons for RBs, it seems like Peyton will even make it to the second round. I had a RB hard-on myself before readin that article, but now I'm thinking of drafting Peyton and getting excited everytime he says, "Hey you- C'mere!" in that DirecTv commercial.

 

Any thoughts? Anyone who will take him early?

[piratesownninjas]

Not me... I'll continue to beleive that Runningbacks win fantasy championships.

[cheezhed]

If you select Manning with the #1 overall (assuming a 12 team league), who do you plan (or hope) to get with your 24th and 25th picks???

[Donutrun Jellies]

If you select Manning with the #1 overall (assuming a 12 team league), who do you plan (or hope) to get with your 24th and 25th picks???

 

In my recent draft, Peyton actually went #2 ... say he'd have gone #1.

 

The guy who picked him would have had a choice at 24/25:

RBs...............WRs

Dillon..................MHarrison

DDavis................Chambers

CTaylor...............S/RMoss

WParker..............HWard

Droughns............DJax

 

and for 4th & 5th Rounds:

RBs...............WRs

KJones.................DDriver

JLewis..................JGalloway

DFoster................AJohnson

FTaylor................JHorn

 

Hmmmmmmm.... Sooooo, You could walk away with:

QB: Peyton Manning

RB: Kevin Jones

RB: Jamal Lewis

WR: MHarrison

WR: Randy Moss

 

Risky at RB -- but playable ...

 

The stats I ran showed Peyton outscored "the bubble" of qbs last year (the middle of their bell curve) by more than 60 points in 16 weeks. Only 3RBs can claim that same level of superiority over their bubble -- LJ, Salex, and LT ... Soooo, I was mulling taking Peyton at 6 to try out this theory of superiority of outperformance, but he went at two ...

 

Going into the Jelly flagship draft, with the 4 pick and Portis hurt, I'm not sure what to do ... I might say screw it, try it, and take Peyton. Tiki? SJax? Will they be farther above a Dillon/KJ/Jamal than Peyton will be above the 2nd highest scoring QB? I wish I knew ...

[Randall]

In the Sofa draft he just went 3.11.

[piratesownninjas]

Also, after reading the Manning article, make sure you read that bottom line... It says his rankings are accurate if your quarterback gets 6 points per touchdown thrown... Not many leagues use that scoring system.

[fpuma]

I am in 3 leagues this year and my first draft is this friday. I pick #7 in a 12 team league. I was hoping Tiki fell to me but have debating between sjax and r brown. I may try to grab manning in the second which there is a good possibilty he will be there. My original strategy this year is rb, wr,wr,rb.

[Ron Burgundy]

Also, after reading the Manning article, make sure you read that bottom line... It says his rankings are accurate if your quarterback gets 6 points per touchdown thrown... Not many leagues use that scoring system.

 

 

 

Always have to read the fine print. Good catch.

[NavinRJohnson]

Well, our 12-team league still does +6 for passing TDs. In 2004, Peyton went 1.10 in the draft. The Manning owner finished 2nd to the Alexander owner that year the year Manning threw 49 TDs. If that draft position and 49 TDs don't win you a championship, I can't see how a QB in Round 1 ever will.

 

Check you local final standings for 2004. See where Manning was drafted and see how that owner did. Maybe the guy in our league just got hit by weird injuries or a streak of bad luck. If Manning won your leagu in 04 by a wide margin, maybe he is worth a Round 1 pick in your league.

 

p.s. The Alexander owner also won our league last year...

[Whiskey Pimp]

Here's a slight twist. We have a rookie keeper option and I will be keeping Ronnie Brown as my 7th round pick. Now I have the 7th pick overall so I can either go someone like SJax or Caddy or maybe Tiki or Portis fall somehow. Or I could go Manning, giving me Manning in the first and Brown in the 7th. Any thoughts here?

[Big Dogs]

Also, after reading the Manning article, make sure you read that bottom line... It says his rankings are accurate if your quarterback gets 6 points per touchdown thrown... Not many leagues use that scoring system.

 

 

 

The league I pick 4th in does give 6 for passing TD's........ So now I'm even more confused as I have a huge issue with not taking a RB....

 

To take either.......Tiki, Portis, SJax, RBrown, and now........Peyton?????

 

 

Last year in our league (05), Peyton went with the #2 pick and that team led the league all season in wins and he didn't have his career year last year. Keep in mind that this same team also got Tiki at #23, Holt at #26, and Dunn at #47....

 

But he did loose to me in the playoffs on my way to the championship with Larry Johnson!!!

Edited August 17, 2006 by Big Dogs

[kingfish247]

I have the 4th overall in my league draft but still won't take Manning.

 

FYI-the scoring system at the bottom of the article also includes 1PPR.

 

My league does 6pts per passing td but no PPR.

 

Anyways, the biggest flaw in the argument, imo, is:

1. Peyton plays every game and durability is the recipe for success.

 

Yes, he does play every game and hasn't missed anytime due to injury, yet. It's the NFL, anything can happen. Yes, even Peyton can be injured, lost for the season. Yes, even winning the Powerball is less likely to happen than a Peyton injury. Shocking.

 

So I'm at 4, the big 3 are off the board. I take Manning. I don't pick until 2.09, pick 21. So I go KJ or Westbrook or J.Lewis at RB1 AND very likely miss out on the top WRs??? no thanks.

 

just my $0.02

 

if however i had the 9-12th overall, i would not hesitate to take Manning.

Edited August 17, 2006 by kingfish247

[Marauders11]

in my local keeper we can only keep 1 player from last year's squad and I'm keeping Manning over Tiki- not all that risky, but still against the grain of the traditional "gotta keep a RB theory".

[Grits and Shins]

That article does not account for relative value ... the difference between Manning and the QB you settle for versus the difference between any of the RBs he listed and the one you'd have to settle for.

 

We all know that Manning is money in the bank, that does not equate to him being the best overall draft pick at any position in the 1st round.

 

His whole article is predicated on this statement:

 

If I’ve learned anything in my 10 years of playing this wonderful game, its that nothing will derail your once promising season faster than an injury to your first round pick. If you get a player you can count on in the first round, have an overall good draft, and play the game smartly, you have a great chance of winning it all.

 

• If you get a good player in the 1st round, yes Manning is that
  
• If you have an overall good draft, very hard to do after drafting a QB in the first round
  
• If you play the game smartly, this is true regardless of who you drafted when
  

 

I would not have thought the author of that article had 2 years experience let alon the 10+ he claims.

[Furd]

The #1 overall pick of your draft should be Peyton Manning.

 

A preposterous statement, deserving of ridicule.

[kingfish247]

• If you get a good player in the 1st round, yes Manning is that

• If you have an overall good draft, very hard to do after drafting a QB in the first round

• If you play the game smartly, this is true regardless of who you drafted when

 

 

no true-er words have ever been typed

[Youre Going Down]

Last year in a league I went against my normal strategy and took Manning at the 2 spot in a 14 team 3 man keeper league. My next 4 picks went like this, C Johnson, L Jordan, S Smith then C Williams. It was a reception league, all TDs were 6pts plus bonuses for length of TDs. I lost in the Superbowl . So it can work.

[Marauders11]

I think that everyone agrees that you build around RB's at least that is the popular consenus in most "expert" circles, however in today's game there are very few that can be considered slam-dunk sure fire top producers year in and year out. I think that is the premise of the article more than anything else so even if you don't agree with the author you gotta cut him some slack-

 

Manning is probably a lot "safer" in terms of setting yourself up for almost guaranteed weekly points than just about anyone- it's hard to argue with that.

 

One of the big 3 RB's can very well outproduce him and carry your team to glory, but they all do carry probably more risk.

 

Here's an example from our Primetime HAG draft last season- we are all experienced fantasy players and look how the 1st round turned out:

 

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

Manning, Peyton IND QB

Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

James, Edgerrin ARI RB

McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

Holmes, Priest KCC RB

Davis, Domanick HOU RB

Jones, Kevin DET RB

Dillon, Corey NEP RB

McGahee, Willis BUF RB

Lewis, Jamal BAL RB

Moss, Randy OAK WR

 

What 3 of the top 12 can be considered "good" picks 4 if you ad in Manning.

[Furd]

If you draft first, you can get Johnson and catch Brady on your next pick. (Too early for Brady IMO, but he'll be there.) Or you can pick Manning first, and end up with a 3rd tier back the likes of Parker or Droughns..

 

Take DMD's projections:

 

LJ + Brady = 375 FFPts + 318 FFPts = 693 points.

 

Parker + Manning = 182 FFpts + 333 FFpts =515 points.

 

 

Now DMD has LJ having a monster year, so let's substitute LT:

 

LT/Brady = 643

Manning/Parker = 515

 

You can sub Palmer in for Brady if you want without changing much.

 

Now after your first two picks, you have 1 RB and 1 QB. Which tandem do you want?

[Bill Swerski]

If you take Manning #1 overall in a redraft league, you'd better hope that he throws for 4,400 yds and 40 or more TDs. If not, you're going to get your clocked cleaned.

[mamaboy]

I would not take Manning unless I had pick four or later, then in the second I would take a top tier WR, and then in the third may take another, or even take Reggie Bush in the Second.

Peyton

Fitzgerald

Derick Mason

 

Then take your chance on a couple sleeper rbs, hoping one will pan out

[DangerousDave]

Despite the subject of this thread, I wouldn't take him #1 overall. That's just what the author of the article suggested, taking it a bit too far in my opinion.

 

What I'm saying is that the article shot him up my rankings, just not all the way to the top. And with everyone so insecure about getting a runningback early, I think he will be available coming back in the second. I'm even seeing him available in the third in some drafts. That means people are taking flash-in-the-pan, haven't-proved-a-thing players like Kevin Jones over someone who will produce every week.

 

If I've learned anything in drafting, it's at all points in time, go with the sure thing. Last year I spent an early pick on Nate Burleson, because of the hype of him being Daunte's #1. I even drafted J.J. Arrington because of his college hype, and because he was a starting runningback- the end-all-be-all of fantasy superiority.

 

 

But someone on this thread- I don't remember who- hit the issue right on the head. You need to determine if you think he'll outscore the Bradys, Bulgers and Delhommes by a larger Margin than someone like Cadillac will outscore Kevin/Julius Jones or Ahman Green.

 

I'm on the fence. But I know sure-things are fleeting and few on draft day. And I believe the theory that the Colts passing game is going to enjoy a rennaisance this season.

 

-DD

[Primetime9287]

If you draft first, you can get Johnson and catch Brady on your next pick. (Too early for Brady IMO, but he'll be there.) Or you can pick Manning first, and end up with a 3rd tier back the likes of Parker or Droughns..

 

Take DMD's projections:

 

LJ + Brady = 375 FFPts + 318 FFPts = 693 points.

 

Parker + Manning = 182 FFpts + 333 FFpts =515 points.

Now DMD has LJ having a monster year, so let's substitute LT:

 

LT/Brady = 643

Manning/Parker = 515

 

You can sub Palmer in for Brady if you want without changing much.

 

Now after your first two picks, you have 1 RB and 1 QB. Which tandem do you want?

 

 

 

Exactly, the dropoff from Manning to Brady, Palmer, Eli and Hasselbeck won't be as great as the dropoff in talent from the 2nd round (when you would usually see Manning go) to the 4th or 5th Round (when the other guys start going). DMD and Furd show it perfectly. You can even show Manning going in the 2nd round and it's still not worth taking him there. He should go mid-late 3rd round after all the top RBs and top 8 or 9 WRs go. If he goes in the 1st or 2nd round of your draft, high 5 the owner and get Brady or Palmer in the 4th or 5th round.

[Bengal Mania]

This argument has been re-hashed many times.

 

The last time I played along, the prevailing "against" (taking Manning) team argued it was stupid to take Manning before the 4th or 5th round. Well, at least their "Gritsy" leader argued that. Most rationale people believe Manning in 3rd or later is a steal.

 

I have always maintained that Manning is worth CONSIDERING, even if you choose not to take him, anytime from late 1st on.

 

I absolutely agree that you don't take him #1-3. I wouldn't even take him with the next few picks myself.

 

But when you get to taking a tier 2/3 RB over him? I don't buy the argument fully, at least not without thought.

 

OK, I get the relative value of Manning + mid RB vs. high RB + another QB argument. I'm not even saying I disagree with it, in fact I agree with it, I just think the point where you consider Manning differs among folks. What I think the presenters of that argument fail to realize, is that, you have NO IDEA if the 2nd/3rd tier RB will be any good.

 

Fine, Brady + the #8RB will get more points than Manning + the #14RB (the whole drop off thing). But somebody promise me WHO the #8 RB will be. If we take a poll, we'll have at least 10 diff RBs listed, and a few of those will finish nowhere near their draft position. Your #8 RB on draft day might be your #18 at the end of year. But Manning will be #1 or #2, I'd bet money on it, and so would you.

 

Again, I realize that the #14 RB I get w/ Manning might be #25 at end. He might also be #9. No one knows.

 

With all that ranting said, I still wouldn't take Manning until later in 1st at earliest (we do get equal pts for QBs). In one league, I'm #6 of 14, I won't take him (but I'll fret about it when my pick is up). In my other league (league champe w/ LJ as my keeper!!!!!!!) I'm 12 of 12, but Manning will go #3.

[Grits and Shins]

This argument has been re-hashed many times.

 

The last time I played along, the prevailing "against" (taking Manning) team argued it was stupid to take Manning before the 4th or 5th round. Well, at least their "Gritsy" leader argued that. Most rationale people believe Manning in 3rd or later is a steal.

 

I have always maintained that Manning is worth CONSIDERING, even if you choose not to take him, anytime from late 1st on.

 

I absolutely agree that you don't take him #1-3. I wouldn't even take him with the next few picks myself.

 

But when you get to taking a tier 2/3 RB over him? I don't buy the argument fully, at least not without thought.

 

OK, I get the relative value of Manning + mid RB vs. high RB + another QB argument. I'm not even saying I disagree with it, in fact I agree with it, I just think the point where you consider Manning differs among folks. What I think the presenters of that argument fail to realize, is that, you have NO IDEA if the 2nd/3rd tier RB will be any good.

 

Fine, Brady + the #8RB will get more points than Manning + the #14RB (the whole drop off thing). But somebody promise me WHO the #8 RB will be. If we take a poll, we'll have at least 10 diff RBs listed, and a few of those will finish nowhere near their draft position. Your #8 RB on draft day might be your #18 at the end of year. But Manning will be #1 or #2, I'd bet money on it, and so would you.

 

Again, I realize that the #14 RB I get w/ Manning might be #25 at end. He might also be #9. No one knows.

 

With all that ranting said, I still wouldn't take Manning until later in 1st at earliest (we do get equal pts for QBs). In one league, I'm #6 of 14, I won't take him (but I'll fret about it when my pick is up). In my other league (league champe w/ LJ as my keeper!!!!!!!) I'm 12 of 12, but Manning will go #3.

 

 

Can you promise me Manning will be the number 1 QB ... he wasn't last year, heck he wasn't even the number 2 QB last yer