i_am_the_swammi Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 I was just curious why most people feel he can't carry the load? Personally, I see a more durable Brian Westbrook. Also, MJD was the #2 RB in total pts in a standard PPR league last year. It's not that can't...its that he won't...two completely different things. No way the JAX coaches allow him to be a 100% feature RB...just doesn't happen anymore with big power-RBs. See 2008 Brandon Jacobs. See 2008 Marion Barber. Expect about the same. The releasing of Taylor does not put him in the elite group....his workload will stay about the same as last year once they determine who the change-of-pace RB will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 It's not that can't...its that he won't...two completely different things. No way the JAX coaches allow him to be a 100% feature RB...just doesn't happen anymore with big power-RBs. See 2008 Brandon Jacobs. See 2008 Marion Barber. Expect about the same. The releasing of Taylor does not put him in the elite group....his workload will stay about the same as last year once they determine who the change-of-pace RB will be. With an uptick in receptions. Again, I say 30 combined touches per game would be a very reachable goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 I say 30 combined touches per game would be a very reachable goal. I think that is a huge, and ultimately unreachable, number. If he gets 6 receptions per game, that puts him at 96 receptions for the year. The highest this year for a RB: Forte's 64. And to reach your 30-touch number, the above scenario would also mean he gets 24 rushes per game. That feat was accomplished by just two RBs this year: Peterson and Turner. No way, and I mean no way, does he average 30-touches per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 Didn't JAX also drop Porter? Is it possible they actually go get or draft a capable WR? It shouldn't be too hard for them to find a 10 carries a game back while making MJD the featured guy in their dual back system. Obviously, I'll wait until offseason, the draft, etc. all happen before I really pick my spot for MJD. I don't really know who is considered "elite" anymore as I see ?s with almost everyone. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 Didn't JAX also drop Porter? yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 If healthy, that's 480 touches a year? and at 4.5 yds per touch (which could be rather low when factoring in recpetions), he'd be in line for a 2,160 yard season Assume he gets 15-18 TDs on that many touches, and now we're talking about one of the greatest fantasy statistical seasons an RB has ever had. Sorry, I won't be drinking that kool-aid next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 (edited) His combined average is 5.8. And while coach Jack Del Rio said Greg Jones will likely get five to 10 carries a game — plus Montell Owens and Chauncey Washington on the roster — Jones-Drew will carry the load as both a running back and a receiver. Edited February 17, 2009 by Randall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 (edited) I think that is a huge, and ultimately unreachable, number. If he gets 6 receptions per game, that puts him at 96 receptions for the year. The highest this year for a RB: Forte's 64. And to reach your 30-touch number, the above scenario would also mean he gets 24 rushes per game. That feat was accomplished by just two RBs this year: Peterson and Turner. No way, and I mean no way, does he average 30-touches per game. hmmmm well when you lay it out like that. ETA: This is bugging me now as I usually don't throw out a number like that without researching it at least alittle bit. Edited February 17, 2009 by tazinib1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 not to mention relying on the double digit TDs is in of itself not a safe thing to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 He's just too small to survive a 16 game schedule with 25+ touches per game. Especially in an offense where teams can load up on the run because the passing game is so anemic. He's always drafted way too early in fantasy drafts, and will be again this year. MJD is anything but small. Short, yes, but at 5'7" 207 he packs quite a wallop. I agree that he's not going to be a 25 carry a game back on average, but 20 carries and 4 rec a game isn't out of the question. The O-line will be better next year and there's no doubt MJD is the biggest offensive weapon. No one thought Brian Westbrook was a every down back either. With so much uncertainty at RB going into next year, what RB's besides AP do you have ranked ahead of MJD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 (edited) MJD is anything but small. Short, yes, but at 5'7" 207 he packs quite a wallop. I agree that he's not going to be a 25 carry a game back on average, but 20 carries and 4 rec a game isn't out of the question. The O-line will be better next year and there's no doubt MJD is the biggest offensive weapon. No one thought Brian Westbrook was a every down back either. With so much uncertainty at RB going into next year, what RB's besides AP do you have ranked ahead of MJD? I guess that is part of why I am high on him at this point. Things may change, but I assume if they are going to plan on scoring TDs and putting up points... MJD will have to be central to that focus. I like to take value so we'll just see where he is at and where I am drafting from but I see no reason to not be optimistic at this point. Edited February 17, 2009 by Square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 ive read all the " i want to play in the superbowl" stuff about fred...how santonio holmes is his cousin and plaxico is his kids godfather....but i really think houston would be a great fit for him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Pimp Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 ive read all the " i want to play in the superbowl" stuff about fred...how santonio holmes is his cousin and plaxico is his kids godfather....but i really think houston would be a great fit for him How about in New England? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 With so much uncertainty at RB going into next year, what RB's besides AP do you have ranked ahead of MJD? Turner Forte Jackson Gore Westbrook D. Williams Tomlinson (I think he bounces back healthy and produces top-5 next year, esp. with Sproles likely gone) On par with MJD (could be a tad better, or a tad worse): Barber Jacobs Portis Jones C. Johnson Grant (another bounce-back sleeper) Addai Brown T. Jones P. Thomas (protract his stats once he became a starter over a full season....wow!) I don't doubt MJD will be drafted high, based on his perceived higher-value...I just have a feeling that, by the time 2009 is over, there will be a handful of RBs ranked lower that end up with better numbers. I'll let somebody else use a #3 or #4 pick on him, and take someone else at #7-10 and likely be just as satisfied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 How about in New England? sure...why not but as ive said before...im not ready to give up on laurence maroney like alot of people seem to have already done....i cant speak for the pats its just my opinion....he may be on real thin ice there...i dunno.... i tend to think, with a healthy tom brady back there chuckin the rock, they have enough capable guys on the roster to get the job done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 TurnerForte Jackson Gore Westbrook D. Williams Tomlinson (I think he bounces back healthy and produces top-5 next year, esp. with Sproles likely gone) On par with MJD (could be a tad better, or a tad worse): Barber Jacobs Portis Jones C. Johnson Grant (another bounce-back sleeper) Addai Brown T. Jones P. Thomas (protract his stats once he became a starter over a full season....wow!) I don't doubt MJD will be drafted high, based on his perceived higher-value...I just have a feeling that, by the time 2009 is over, there will be a handful of RBs ranked lower that end up with better numbers. I'll let somebody else use a #3 or #4 pick on him, and take someone else at #7-10 and likely be just as satisfied. I just play in PPR leagues, so maybe my opinion is swayed because of that. MTurner; he's coming off a year in which he had 380 carries and he doesn't catch the ball. You have fun drafing him before MJD Forte; I could see Forte being rated above MJD, but it's already been mentioned that Chi wants to lesson Forte's load for next year S-Jax; while I agree Jackson has more upside than MJD he's hardly a safer first round pick. Gore; I would put him on par with MJD Westbrook; he's 30 and health has always been an issue. I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him above MJD D-Will; he was the top rated RB pts wise in a standard PPR league this year, but with Stewart there he's hardly a safer pick than MJD Tomlinson; I too think Tomlinson will bounce back next year, so I will give you that one. When it comes down to it this fantasy thing isn't an exact science, but I feel with what we've seen thus far in MJD's brief career, and FTaylor out of the picture there's no reaosn to think MJD won't be a top 5 back easy. Like I stated before, He was the #2 back in total pts for standard PPR leagues last year. I just don't understand the haters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 I just don't understand the haters. Owner's envy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 TurnerForte Jackson Gore Westbrook D. Williams Tomlinson (I think he bounces back healthy and produces top-5 next year, esp. with Sproles likely gone) On par with MJD (could be a tad better, or a tad worse): Barber Jacobs Portis Jones C. Johnson Grant (another bounce-back sleeper) Addai Brown T. Jones P. Thomas (protract his stats once he became a starter over a full season....wow!) I don't doubt MJD will be drafted high, based on his perceived higher-value...I just have a feeling that, by the time 2009 is over, there will be a handful of RBs ranked lower that end up with better numbers. I'll let somebody else use a #3 or #4 pick on him, and take someone else at #7-10 and likely be just as satisfied. I guess I should have read your post thoroughly before responding. So you agree that MJD will be a top 5 pick, but you feel he won't have top 5 numbers? I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. We'll revisit next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Pimp Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 sure...why not but as ive said before...im not ready to give up on laurence maroney like alot of people seem to have already done....i cant speak for the pats its just my opinion....he may be on real thin ice there...i dunno.... i tend to think, with a healthy tom brady back there chuckin the rock, they have enough capable guys on the roster to get the job done I'm not ready to give up on Maroney either but there seems like something is going on there. Someone out of Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Jordan is going to go that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 Per Rotoworld Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio envisions giving FB Greg Jones 5-10 carries a game next season. Jones will add some power to the backfield with Maurice Jones-Drew, but this won't be a committee. Jones-Drew is expected to "carry the load as both a running back and a receiver," making him a rare every-down feature back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 (edited) Per Rotoworld Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio envisions giving FB Greg Jones 5-10 carries a game next season. Jones will add some power to the backfield with Maurice Jones-Drew, but this won't be a committee. Jones-Drew is expected to "carry the load as both a running back and a receiver," making him a rare every-down feature back. 221 carries for MJD...I will update later with how I came to that number as him "Carrying the load" and note I am not factoring in receptions because I didnt even look at that yet. and with the 5-10 carries being reported for Jones that would be between 80-160 carries for him. Edited February 17, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 221 carries for MJD...I will update later with how I came to that number as him "Carrying the load" and note I am not factoring in receptions because I didnt even look at that yet.and with the 5-10 carries being reported for Jones that would be between 80-160 carries for him. 13 carries per game? I'm looking forward to your explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 Here are some conservative projections from my end: 17 carrie avg per game = 272 carries on the year. 4.2 YPC @ 272 carries = 1142 yds 70 rec for 600 yds 12 total TD's Like I said, these are conservative projections, but they sure look like top 5 #'s to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 Here are some conservative projections from my end: 17 carrie avg per game = 272 carries on the year. 4.2 YPC @ 272 carries = 1142 yds 70 rec for 600 yds 12 total TD's Like I said, these are conservative projections, but they sure look like top 5 #'s to me. I'm sorry everytime you post I fail to read it. Your avatar is mesmerizing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted February 17, 2009 Share Posted February 17, 2009 I'm sorry everytime you post I fail to read it. Your avatar is mesmerizing. Capt. Stanky posts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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