Tford's mock draft version 2

[Tford]

After the combine, there were a couple movers and shakers. Some guys improved their stock immensely, others blew it big time.

 

 

1) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck QB Stanford

 

I really don't see any scenario where this doesn't happen. Luck is the consensus best player available. Manning is 35 years old and this year proved that the Colts do not have a decent heir apparent on the team. And although the team has some contract issues, the 1.01 pick is manageable to work around. More and more, it looks like Manning's days as a Colt are history and Indianapolis will be Luck's team from the get-go.

 

2) Cleveland Browns (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III QB Baylor

 

I see RG3 being head-and-shoulders better than any other player not named Luck. Normally I wouldn't call a trade in a first mock but this one makes too much sense. Either Washington or Cleveland makes a lot of sense but the Browns moreso because Cleveland has the ammo to make this move with Atlanta's first round pick from the Julio Jones trade. Oddly enough, the pick value works out that Cleveland's two firsts are comparable to St. Louis' 1.02 so that's the move I'm going with. RG3's performance only solidified what I already thought. He is going 1.02. The only question is to what team. I think the players are Cleveland, Washington and Miami in that order. Seattle doesn't have a shot.

 

3) Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil OT USC

 

Still no changes here. Unless St. Louis surprises everyone and takes Kalil at 1.02, I really don't see Minnesota going anywhere else. Doesn't really matter who is taking snaps for the Vikings, he won't be effective if he is running for his life. If Kalil is gone, Minnesota probably goes with Blackmon or trades the pick themselves but I don't see how 1-2 doesn't go QB-QB.

 

4) St. Louis Rams (from Cleveland) - Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State

 

The ideal spot for the Rams to end up because they end up with either Matt Kalil or Justin Blackmon, both big needs. Blackmon is easily to the top WR available in the draft and the Rams know they need a playmaker to help Sam Bradford keep this offense on schedule. Still status quo here. I think Blackmon likely didn't run to protect his pre-combine image as the WR1. He's not track-fast so that was probably the best move. Love him or hate him, unless STL signs one (or two) or the many WR free agents this offseason, Blackmon should be the selection.

 

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne CB LSU (previously Trent Richardson RB Alabama)

 

First change of mock, Morris Claiborne is the best CB in the draft bar-none and the Buccaneers are liable to lose their best corner to jail-time. Ronde Barber is a year away from retirement and EJ Biggers is not going to scare the likes of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.

 

6) Washington Redskins - Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M (previously Luke Kuechly LB Boston College)

 

I'm going to get lambasted for this but I think Washington is the big loser in the quarterback carousel. They will miss on the Flynn/Manning sweepstakes and fail to secure the trade up to 2. The rumors about Washington trying to trade up are constantly swirling. Shanahan is forced to reach for Tannehill because he knows he can't go into the season with only Rex Grossman and John Beck, again. A trade back to add a pick or two makes sense but there's too many variables to predict one. A team that wants to leapfrog Jacksonville for a top pass rusher perhaps?

 

7) Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina (previously Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame)

 

I still like Mike Floyd and I think he could do some damage in JAX. But all signs point to Jacksonville upgrading their defensive line. They've struck out in the recent past with the likes of Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves and whiffed on free agents like a past-his-prime Aaron Kampman so there isn't much doubt that DE is a sore spot.

 

8) Miami Dolphins - Riley Reiff OT Iowa

 

Not the flashy pick that their owner wants but Miami needs help on the offensive line. The entire right side of their line is weak at best. Reiff is a quality talent that will go in the top 10. I don't see any reason to come off of this pick. I think Manning eventually lands in Miami and if that's the case, the 1.08 pick commands more protection for him.

 

9) Carolina Panthers - Dontari Poe DT Memphis(previously Morris Claiborne CB LSU)

 

The big winner of the combine, Dontari Poe vaulted himself into top half of the first round consideration with his performance. Speed, quickness and strength, everything you could want from the inside of your defensive line. I think the Carolina Panthers could certainly use that kind of presence in their interior. For a team that saw such a huge improvement on the offensive side of the ball last year with the addition of Cam Newton, it has become painfully obvious that the defensive side of the ball must be improved drastically.

 

10) Buffalo Bills - Quentin Coples DE North Carolina (previously Jonathan Martin OT Stanford)

 

Lately, Chan Gailey has commented on his defense's failure to get to the quarterback. Last year, he commented on running the ball better and they drafted CJ Spiller. Connect the dots to pass rush. Quentin Coples is probably a better 4-3 end than Courtney Upshaw in my opinion, hence the pick. He certainly has the size over the Alabama end.

 

11) Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro G Stanford

 

More offensive help for a team that struggles on offense. DeCastro will be an anchor for a team that is used to having quality guard play. Watching the O-line drills, I am convinced that this guy is the play. He is the next Steve Hutchinson in my opinion. The next likely spot for Trent Richardson but his knee scares off Scott Pioli.

 

12) Seattle Seahawks - Zach Brown OLB North Carolina (previous Quentin Coples DE North Carolina)

 

This pick could just as easily be Luke Kuechly but I am assuming that Hawthorne finds a way to stay in Seattle. Brown brings speed, coverage and better-than-average pass rush abilities from a prototypical 4-3 OLB.

 

13) Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (previously Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama)

 

The Cardinals need Kirkpatrick but word has it that he bombed his interview portion. I think that will be just enough to pass on him in favor of an offensive tackle. Jonathan Martin is the roadgrader run blocker that Whiz wants/needs. Bump up Beanie Wells if Martin lands with the Cards.

 

14) Dallas Cowboys - Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (previously Devon Still 3-4 DE Penn State)

 

An absolute gift to the Cowboys, if Dre Kirkpatrick wasn't an idiot he's not available here. Closer to top 10 talent than not, Kirkpatrick gives the Cowboys a better long term plan at corner. Mike Jenkins is decent but brittle and Terrence Newman is declining and brittle. Not a great twosome with little depth behind them. 3-4 DE still needs to be addressed but can probably be dealt with on day 2.

 

15) Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College (previously Donta Hightower ILB Alabama)

 

I know what you are going to say; "Andy Reid doesn't draft LBs with first round picks." That's true, but name me a season where LB was as glaring of a problem as it was last year. The Eagles were ran over constantly. Luke Kuechly is an instinctive, athletic ILB that can lead a defense. Andy Reid would be foolish to pass on him.

 

16) New York Jets - Trent Richardson RB Alabama (previously Courtney Upshaw 3-4 OLB Alabama)

 

Rex Ryan can't pass on Trent Richardson here. The Jets need to run the ball better, they need to take pressure off of their passing game. Trent Richardson probably isn't the whole answer but he's certainly a big upgrade over Shonn Greene. It's a little cloudly as to whether LT will return but Richardson's drafting would close that door.

 

17) Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama

 

A bit of a head case, comes complete with plenty of off-the-field issues. Perfect fit for the Bengals? Leon Hall is coming off of a season-ending injury and is a free agent. Jonathan Joseph left for Houston last year. Teams can quickly go from riches to rags at a certain position in the NFL and the Bengals' cornerback situation is a good example of this. I'm sticking with this pick here.

 

18) San Diego Chargers - Courtney Upshaw 3-4 OLB Alabama (perviously Whitney Mercilus 3-4 OLB Illinois)

 

I think San Diego can justify a tackle here but past the top three guys, the only guy I like is Mike Adams. A tackle will probably go in a reach or two here and there but the Chargers have other holes to fill. Jared Gaither getting resigned might allow them to pass on tackle altogether. Upshaw hopes to succeed where Larry English has failed and provide the 3-4 OLB opposite Shaun Phillips. Even though he's stiff in the hips, I think Upshaw gets the look here instead of Mercilus/Perry.

 

19) Chicago Bears - Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame (previously Alshon Jeffrey WR South Carolina)

 

Chicago needs a wide receiver period. While it's nice to compare Alshon Jeffery to Brandon Marshall because it's easy, his decision not the run or catch at the combine probably has scouts thinking twice about him. Michael Floyd slipping farther than I think he should makes Jay Cutler a happy man in this mock draft.

 

20) Tennessee Titans - Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (previously Peter Konz C Wisconsin)

 

The Titans seem resolved to the fact that Jason Jones is leaving via free agency. Pass rush is probably the play here.

 

21) Cincinnati Bengals - Lamar Miller RB Miami

 

I'm calling a second RB in the first round to the Bengals. Benson is a 29 year old free agent with multiple off-the-field issues that are amounting to suspensions and Bernard Scott has proved he is little more than a reliable change-of-pace. Miller gives Cincinnati the young runningback to go with their young QB and WR.

 

22) St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta through Cleveland) - Alfonso Dennard CB Nebraska

 

I can't remember the numbers but I know that the amount of CBs on injured reserver for St. Louis was horrendous and that was a weak unit to begin with. The Rams would be well served to bolster their CB ranks. Dennard fits the bill later in the first round.

 

23) Detroit Lions - Cordy Glenn OG/OT Georgia (previously Mike Adams OT Ohio State)

 

I don't really like this pick because I see Detroit finding a way to draft a defensive back to help them win the shootouts that they seemed to find themselves in a lot last year. That said, Detroit was able to see a return on their investment in Matthew Stafford with him making it through the season without a major injury. The Lions would do well in the draft to acquire players to help keep their quarterback producing. I still think that Detroit might be better served to grab help in the secondary but with nobody at corner that really fits the bill, tackle it is. Cordy Glenn appears to have separated himself in the combine so he overtakes Mike Adams here.

 

24) Pittsburgh Steelers - Donta Hightower ILB Alabama (previously Jerel Worthy 3-4 DE Michigan State)

 

Guard, tackle, 3-4 DE, ILB, nose tackle; you name it? The Steelers probably could use it. However, with long-time ILB James Farrior currently unemployed, I expect the Steelers to spend a first-round choice to grab someone to replace him. Donta Hightower was faster and more athletic than most gave him credit for at the combine. He would be a quality addition as a "TED" linebacker in any 3-4 scheme.

 

25) Denver Broncos - Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State

 

A big run stuffer in the middle to help Broderick Bunkley inside. The Broncos defense solidified down the stretch but Marcus Thomas isn't the long-term answer. Cox would be the interior presence the Broncos need in the hard-running AFC West. Still like this pick here.

 

26) Houston Texans - Peter Konz C Wisconsin (previously Kendall Wright WR Baylor)

 

Kendall Wright's calling card should have been his speed but his 4.61 time didn't impress anyone. Arian Foster got resigned for a pretty penny and I would suspect that Mario Williams is next. Chris Myers is the odd man out. Peter Konz could step in and swing right away.

 

27) New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Mark Barron SS Alabama

 

The Patriots secondary was a disaster all year. Pat Chung was the lone bright spot but he can't seem to stay healthy. Belichick was signing street free agents to play free safety. Grabbing Barron here to shore up the Patriot secondary would be a wise play. Still like this pick here.

 

28) Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry 3-4 OLB Southern California

 

A sore spot for the Packers, Perry provides an immediate upgrade opposite Clay Matthews. Could just as easily be Whitney Mercilus out of Illinois but I think the USC connection wins out here.

 

29) Baltimore Ravens - Mike Adams OT Ohio State (previously Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona State)

 

Wow, what a complete meltdown Vontaze Burfict had at the combine. Word is that he won't be drafted until day 3 after his interviews and weak performance. Bryant McKinnie is old and prior to the Ravens cutting Jared Gaither loose, he was out of football. Mike Adams is raw but has franchise tackle potential. The Ravens would do well to get him here.

 

30) San Francisco 49ers - Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech (previously Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers)

 

Yes, i am calling the 49ers to be so enamoured with Stephen Hill's ridiculous combine numbers that they take him in the first round. Don't think that minimal production and ridiculous measureables warrants a first round grade? Look no further than former GA Tech WR Demaryius Thomas. Not saying these guys are identical but Hill's combine made scouts take notice. For a team that could use a deep threat, Hill may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

 

31) New England Patriots - Devon Still 4-3 DT/3-4 DE Penn State (previously Zac Brown 4-3 OLB North Carolina)

 

Bit of a tumble for the former Nittany Lion, but landing in the middle of a Patriot defense that needs an infusion of youth, Still should garner plenty of playing time. Wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh ends up with this pick however in a Mike Wallace RFA poaching bid. Interestingly enough, I would probably say the same player would be selected here.

 

29) New York Giants - Michael Brockers DT LSU (previously Cordy Glenn OG/OT Georgia)

 

You could make a pretty good case that Brockers could be long gone by this pick. However, I think Brockers' head-scratching combine may leave some teams wondering about his ability to translate to the next level. Never shying away from building their defensive line with physical specimens, the Giants might be the perfect fit for Brockers.

Edited March 5, 2012 by Tford

[godtomsatan]

Tannehill can't go from mid-2nd to top 10 can he?

[Tford]

Tannehill can't go from mid-2nd to top 10 can he?

 

 

He shouldn't because I don't think he is that good. But this mock is not about what I would do, it's about what I think could happen.

[godtomsatan]

He shouldn't because I don't think he is that good. But this mock is not about what I would do, it's about what I think could happen.

 

 

I don't see the talent there to warrant it. The measurables and such. Of course, like you said, there's going to be at least a couple losers in the Griffin/Manning/Flynn sweepstakes. If Washington is one of them, then who knows what they'll do.

 

The QBs as a whole really bumped themselves up the draft boards with their performances at the combine it looks like. Pre-combine, there were maybe 4 guys listed as 3rd Round or better picks. That number is up to 7 or 8 with the performances of Osweiler, Weeden, and Cousins. Even Russell Wilson at 5'10" is getting a lot of love.

[Bronco Billy]

Well done, Tford. The thing that jumps out at me is that you don't have Richardson going to TB at 1.05 like a lot of other mocks do. I understand that TB needs some help at RB since they are razor thin there right now, but Blount is still there and was pretty effective in his limited role (and may have some apparently untapped potential in the passing game). With the other holes TB has, I don't see why they would double dip and get another power RB with a 1st rounder, but rather get a complimentary RB for Blount in later rounds and use that 1st rounder for a higher priority need - like CB in a division where they see Brees twice, Ryan twice, and Newton twice every season.

Edited March 5, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[Seahawks21]

I really like your mocks. The picks actually make sense!! Amazing! There are always a few quibbling points, as with any mocks. Not sure about Tannehill that high either, and I think Kirkpatrick finds a way to go a bit earlier and maybe Richardson as well, but you've got a good pulse on what positions teams figure to target. Also the first mock that I've seen that has the Seahawks taking an OLB, which is the position that I would draft if I was them as well. Nicely done.

[delusions of grandeur]

Excellent mock draft. I don't know that much about the players and how they stack up yet, but your picks make a lot of sense to me.

 

I definitely agree with your Lions going with tackle too. They actually did a pretty decent job keeping Stafford upright this year from what I saw, but they've neglected the position with too many early picks that we kept on expecting them to take to protect their franchise QB with.\

 

But if Trent Richardson's knee is fine, I definitely can't see Richardson, maybe the best RB prospect since Peterson, to slip past KC.... I suspect that even teams happy with their running game and with bigger needs, will still be taking a long look at him should he start falling...

 

 

(ETA: just realized it's TFord the Falcons fan, not Furd the Lions fan .)

Edited March 6, 2012 by delusions of granduer

[Rovers]

Richardson to the Jets? LOL. If he DID fall, the Jets would be too stupid to take him.

[bostonsoxandy]

First of all, fantastic mock draft. I love your reasoning and can clearly see where you are coming from on each pick.

 

I think the Redskins should (and probably will) not draft Tannehill with their top-10 pick. I think they will go for the No. 2 pick much more aggressively than the Browns and take RG3, or if they miss out they go to free agent and pray they get a decent QB in free agency.

 

And if they don't land a decent QB in free agency they wait for next year and take Matt Barkley who should be much much much much more promising than Tannehill this year.

 

Also, I think the Pats will invest in a cornerback or a safety with the 31st pick. Their current d-line is passable for next year, their secondary needs a lot more work.

 

But, nice work, it's a very impressive and thorough mock.

[Footballjoe]

Your mock will be thrown out the window when the Colts stun the world and resign Peyton. Minutes later the Colts trade away the 2012 #1.1 pick to the Redskins for a Kings ransom. The Redskins get "Lucky"

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I am no expert on the draftees. Actually I am one of the least informed guys you will ever meet on the subject. I say that so you don't take my question as criticism, but rather a real inquiry.

 

I know Poe was a work out monster at the combine. I saw his speed, agility, strength, and his temendous size and I was blown away. Then I read reviews on him out of Memphis. Memphis! You would think with his gifts he would have produced more raw numbers against his competition in college. Why didn't he distinguish himself more before the combine? Is there something lacking in his game or is he just one of those guys that produces numbers mostly for others around him?

Edited March 6, 2012 by Ditkaless Wonders

[Zooty]

Nice job

I think you nailed the top 10 and probably most of the top 20 but your still wrong here and pounding a round peg into a square hole

 

 

15) Philadelphia Eagles - Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College (previously Donta Hightower ILB Alabama)

 

I know what you are going to say; "Andy Reid doesn't draft LBs with first round picks." That's true, but name me a season where LB was as glaring of a problem as it was last year. The Eagles were ran over constantly. Luke Kuechly is an instinctive, athletic ILB that can lead a defense. Andy Reid would be foolish to pass on him.

 

 

 

 

Oh yeah, he may be drafted at 15 but not by the Eagles. I hope that this is the year (the first since the early 70s) that they take a LB in the 1st but its. not. gonna. happen.

Its too obvious everyone thinks the genius fat Andy is gonna take a LB but he won't. Know why? Cause he's crafty. He zigs when you think he'll zag. He zags when he should zig and he does the macarena when its Cha-Cha time. He trades down when he should trade up. He drafts Freddie Mitchell when he should draft Reggie Wayne. He's just smarter than you. Ask the national media, the man coaches like he's won 4 Super Bowls

 

I hate that fat man and he drafts like Taz after a 3 day bender in Tijuana.

 

Otherwise, nice mock

[bpwallace49]

 

 

Its too obvious everyone thinks the genius fat Andy is gonna take a LB but he won't. Know why? Cause he's crafty. He zigs when you think he'll zag. He zags when he should zig and he does the macarena when its Cha-Cha time. He trades down when he should trade up. He drafts Freddie Mitchell when he should draft Reggie Wayne. He's just smarter than you. Ask the national media, the man coaches like he's won 4 Super Bowls

 

I hate that fat man and he drafts like Taz after a 3 day bender in Tijuana.

 

Otherwise, nice mock

 

 

[tazinib1]

 

 

I hate that fat man and he drafts like Taz after a 3 day bender in Tijuana.

 

 

 

 

You know damn well my drafting prowess is unmatched...you're just jealous.

 

 

And good pick on the Chargers taking a LB. But with AJ Smith, he'll take a guy he can get in the 2nd. He is getting famous for reaching for players that bust.

[loaf]

The Browns are claiming, to anyone who'll listen, that they will not include the #22 pick in any deal to move up to #2...

[stevegrab]

The Browns are claiming, to anyone who'll listen, that they will not include the #22 pick in any deal to move up to #2...

 

 

Yep heard that and posted in the thread about Rams trading that 1.02 pick. Also WAS doesn't want to trade their 2nd round pick in 2012.

 

A good article I got from a fellow Browns fan. We both agree with this thinking.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1071323-2012-nfl-draft-why-the-cleveland-browns-shouldnt-trade-up-for-rg3

 

I also posted something yesterday about the Pats approaching the Browns to trade up to 1.22 supposed giving us their 1st and 2nd round picks, which we need to fill holes.

[CaptainHook]

What if team's call the Rams bluff and nobody trades for #2? Then what do the Rams do? Pick RGIII? How much, if at all, does the price go down if the Rams don't take RGIII and you're now dealing with the Vikings for the #3 pick?

[Tford]

What if team's call the Rams bluff and nobody trades for #2? Then what do the Rams do? Pick RGIII? How much, if at all, does the price go down if the Rams don't take RGIII and you're now dealing with the Vikings for the #3 pick?

 

 

Interesting scenario. Although I believe that someone will blink (Rams come down or another team comes up).

 

In that case, I have to believe that the Rams pick Matt Kalil at 2. And if that happens, who's to say that the Vikings don't draft RG3 themselves? I think he's much better than Ponder. Either way, I'm not sure the price goes down very much if at all. The Browns probably play chicken and hope that Minnesota takes Blackmon.

 

Tough to say there.

[tazinib1]

Interesting scenario. Although I believe that someone will blink (Rams come down or another team comes up).

 

In that case, I have to believe that the Rams pick Matt Kalil at 2. And if that happens, who's to say that the Vikings don't draft RG3 themselves? I think he's much better than Ponder. Either way, I'm not sure the price goes down very much if at all. The Browns probably play chicken and hope that Minnesota takes Blackmon.

 

Tough to say there.

 

 

Except Fisher has never taken an OT in the first round. Let alone at 1.2

[Tford]

Except Fisher has never taken an OT in the first round. Let alone at 1.2

 

 

By that logic, he must be looking at taking RG3. Because every time Fisher has had a top 5 pick, he's taken a quarterback. Steve McNair and Vince Young. Doesn't make sense. Different team, different dynamic.

 

This is also the same guy that had the luxury of Bruce Campbell protecting his QB for his first 5 years. Why would you need to pick OL?

[tazinib1]

By that logic, he must be looking at taking RG3. Because every time Fisher has had a top 5 pick, he's taken a quarterback. Steve McNair and Vince Young. Doesn't make sense. Different team, different dynamic.

 

This is also the same guy that had the luxury of Bruce Campbell protecting his QB for his first 5 years. Why would you need to pick OL?

 

 

Well I never said it was logical

 

ETA: And if they do fail to trade down, I think RGIII is the pick to make. Even if you have to have a pick/trade deal in the works involving Bradford.

Edited March 6, 2012 by tazinib1

[delusions of grandeur]

Sounds like Cleveland using their leverage for me... Because if St. Louis and Minny are forced to stand pat, they probably take Kahlil/Blackmon in whatever order. I think Cleveland's gotta feel like they'll do that rather than take RG3 if they can't trade out....

 

But you know they're gonna have some other good offers to compete with. Cleveland does sit in the drivers seat to trade with at 1.04, but it's gonna take the #22 (though maybe 2013 first-rounder instead?) and maybe a throw-in pick or two to land Griffin, or else you jsut go ahead and plan on going a different route... I think they're posturing, but maybe not with the Patroits rumor for the #22.

[piratesownninjas]

I am no expert on the draftees. Actually I am one of the least informed guys you will ever meet on the subject. I say that so you don't take my question as criticism, but rather a real inquiry.

 

I know Poe was a work out monster at the combine. I saw his speed, agility, strength, and his temendous size and I was blown away. Then I read reviews on him out of Memphis. Memphis! You would think with his gifts he would have produced more raw numbers against his competition in college. Why didn't he distinguish himself more before the combine? Is there something lacking in his game or is he just one of those guys that produces numbers mostly for others around him?

 

I don't think he's top ten potential. He has all of the physical talents, but he wasn't dominant at college, and has a highly questionable motor.

 

Kendall Wright will be a first round pick. His 40 time has nothing to do with speed, but how he doesn't fire right out of a track stance. His shoulders moved a tad and his time started before he did. Kendall Wright will be the best WR in this class. A Santonio Holmes/Steve Smith(Carolina) mix.

[Whiskey Pimp]

I also posted something yesterday about the Pats approaching the Browns to trade up to 1.22 supposed giving us their 1st and 2nd round picks, which we need to fill holes.

 

 

Who would the Pats be trading up to get? They tend to trade back more often than actually making that first round pick.

[tazinib1]

Kendall Wright will be the best WR in this class. A Santonio Holmes/Steve Smith(Carolina) mix.

 

 

SHHHH!!!!