Grogansghost Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 How high would you "steal" not "handcuff" LJ? Looking at 14 team mocks on Antsports LJ goes on average at 5.12 -- with an early of 4.14 and a late of 7.01. To beat the Holmes owner you'd have to take LJ with your 4th, 5th, or 6th rd pick. What's too high? Which result is the most likely to occur? Upside: KC rushing attack if Holmes gets hurt, or the potential to force a trade worth more than the pick alone would've been worth. Break even: Priest stays healthy, no trade, but LJ gets enough carries to be a passable RB3. Worst case: Priest stays healthy, LJ rides the pine, and your only joy is causing the Priest owner anxiety on draft day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 late 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I probably wouldn't think of taking Johnson until the 6th. While it'd be a good way to strong-arm a trade from the Priest owner, what you get in return will likely be less valuable than your 5th-round pick. I'll go with the sure thing in a solid #3 WR or a middle-tier QB than before a long shot in Priest's backup. I also wonder how much longer KC's O-line will dominate. That crew has been more or less injury-free for about four straight seasons and I'm thinking that the other shoe has to drop at some point. Also, Roaf and Shields are in their mid-30s now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 late 4 935367[/snapback] OK Hook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 (edited) I took him at 6.5 in a 14 team league. The Priest owner wanted to trade for him but didn't want to offer much. It's a gamble because i could have used another starting RB or semi decent WR, but i figured if Priest goes down, LT and LJ would make a pretty sweet duo. Edited August 18, 2005 by CaP'N GRuNGe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted August 18, 2005 Author Share Posted August 18, 2005 I took him at 6.5 in a 14 team league. The Priest owner wanted to trade for him but didn't want to offer much. It's a gamble because i could have used another starting RB or semi decent WR, but i figured if Priest goes down, LT and LJ would make a pretty sweet duo. 935415[/snapback] I think at round 6 it's worth the gamble. He's likely to at least get enough touches to be a passable bye week filler. Also, while Priest may last longer this season, I think there's a better chance he won't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soloArtist Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 i stole him in rd 8 of a 12 team league; more so to harrass the priest owner than anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 He hasn't made it past the 5th round in any of the 4 drafts I know of: FOFF Generation Lost Prime Time NVN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 (edited) the only way I take him in rounds 4-6 is if I have Priest. too early to take a flyer on someone who could play all or nothing Edited August 18, 2005 by loaf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 the only way I take him in rounds 4-6 is if I have Priest. too early to take a flyer on someone who could play all or nothing 935505[/snapback] I agree but I think mostly it has been non-Priest owners grabbing him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I'm thinking about throwing LJ out first in my auction draft (I have the 3rd spot and I am hoping Priest is not one of the first two thrown out). I'm thinking either he goes super low as the Priest owner would be unknown. If I do get him cheap I think it will make Priest's value go way down as the handcuff to LJ is broken for everyone but me. I don't have to pay a lot for Priest. OR LJ goes way too high and forces the owner spend CAP on a non starting player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted August 18, 2005 Author Share Posted August 18, 2005 I'm thinking about throwing LJ out first in my auction draft (I have the 3rd spot and I am hoping Priest is not one of the first two thrown out). I'm thinking either he goes super low as the Priest owner would be unknown. If I do get him cheap I think it will make Priest's value go way down as the handcuff to LJ is broken for everyone but me. I don't have to pay a lot for Priest. OR LJ goes way too high and forces the owner spend CAP on a non starting player. 935516[/snapback] Win-win. I wish I was in an auction draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest THEbigred Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I also wonder how much longer KC's O-line will dominate. That crew has been more or less injury-free for about four straight seasons and I'm thinking that the other shoe has to drop at some point. Also, Roaf and Shields are in their mid-30s now. 935386[/snapback] Good point; this has been on my mind as well. Best case they make it through this year and the dam could break next year....in fact KC could "bust" in a HUGE way next year if they lose Vermeil, Priest, OL or 2, etc. I'd sure love to seem em win it all if my Colts can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 How high would you "steal" not "handcuff" LJ? Looking at 14 team mocks on Antsports LJ goes on average at 5.12 -- with an early of 4.14 and a late of 7.01. To beat the Holmes owner you'd have to take LJ with your 4th, 5th, or 6th rd pick. What's too high? Which result is the most likely to occur? Upside: KC rushing attack if Holmes gets hurt, or the potential to force a trade worth more than the pick alone would've been worth. Break even: Priest stays healthy, no trade, but LJ gets enough carries to be a passable RB3. Worst case: Priest stays healthy, LJ rides the pine, and your only joy is causing the Priest owner anxiety on draft day. 935362[/snapback] Very poor strategy IMO. Winners usually worry more about how they can improve their own team and less about trying to screw with someone else's team. Unless you already have Holmes on your squad, leave L.J. alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest THEbigred Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 I'm a little out of touch with those old-timey non-auction draft things, but lol @ 4th-5th round for a backup IMO. If Priest is healthy, he will play very little and offer very little, except maybe the stray TD or 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 18, 2005 Share Posted August 18, 2005 Very poor strategy IMO. Winners usually worry more about how they can improve their own team and less about trying to screw with someone else's team. Unless you already have Holmes on your squad, leave L.J. alone. 935795[/snapback] Very excellent point ... I don't recall the last time I seen somebody make a defensive move in a draft and have it payoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 Let somebody else take him in rounds 4-6, then wait for the guy to have a real need and offer a trade? LJ is being drafted like it's known Holmes will go down in Week 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedroz13 Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 The bottom line is this, the last three years Priest has done absolutely nothing for Fantasy owners in the fantasy playoffs. I normally wouldn't recommend 'stealing' a handcuff in rounds 4/5, but you have to assume (because its happened the last three years) that Priest won't be around during weeks 14, 15, and 16. LJ could carry a team during the important games in Fantasy, just like he did last year. That being said, round 6 is the earliest I would get LJ unless I had Priest..in which case its round 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primetime9287 Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 I went into my draft thinking he would go 4th or 5th round and I wasn't going to steal him that early. But he was there the first pick in the 9th round so I went ahead and grabbed him after the Priest owner made an idiotic move and took Barlow over him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 The bottom line is this, the last three years Priest has done absolutely nothing for Fantasy owners in the fantasy playoffs. I normally wouldn't recommend 'stealing' a handcuff in rounds 4/5, but you have to assume (because its happened the last three years) that Priest won't be around during weeks 14, 15, and 16. LJ could carry a team during the important games in Fantasy, just like he did last year. That being said, round 6 is the earliest I would get LJ unless I had Priest..in which case its round 4. 936277[/snapback] This is an interesting thought. It all comes down to your situation, there is no correct answer because every draft is different. In the Top Gun draft I found myself selecting Johnson at 6:5. My other choices at that point were guys like Fred Taylor, Barlow, Suggs. I see little if any upside in those picks and all 3 of those guys are loaded with question marks. It's a gamblers pick to be sure. But I'm willing to bet that even if Holmes never misses a game Vermiel is unlikely to overwork him with a perfectly capable backup. There will be weekly points. 30% of the Chiefs rushing totals may match what any of those other 3 guys do in an average week. I like to draft players with a lot of talent and upside. Johnson fit the bill for me in that situation. If I was Holmes owner I would definitely get him by the 5th round, which is a somewhat unattractive feature of drafting Holmes this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 But I'm willing to bet that even if Holmes never misses a game Vermiel is unlikely to overwork him with a perfectly capable backup. There will be weekly points. 30% of the Chiefs rushing totals may match what any of those other 3 guys do in an average week. I like to draft players with a lot of talent and upside. Johnson fit the bill for me in that situation. If I was Holmes owner I would definitely get him by the 5th round, which is a somewhat unattractive feature of drafting Holmes this season. 936327[/snapback] Absolutely. Everyone who takes Johnson without having Priest Holmes is looking for upside. LJ is my third rb in a 14 team league. And for those of you who think he will rot on the Chiefs bench if Priest stays healthy, you're nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 I'm in Good vs Evil BOTH league. Got Priest in the first, then took LJ in the third because I knew he wouldn't fall to me in the 4th. I'm my other 2 RB's are the Faulk Bros. Thin, I know but it's a 16 team league and DANM did the talent pool drain fast. I'll start LJ if it looks like the split ratio gets high enough. In a 16 teamer having 100% of the KC rushing attack should go a pretty decent way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest THEbigred Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 The bottom line is this, the last three years Priest has done absolutely nothing for Fantasy owners in the fantasy playoffs. 936277[/snapback] ? Priest had two outstanding week 15s in 02 and 03, so this is not accurate...but again the point of not overpaying for LJ is worth noting, though it's due to injury concerns, not Priest under-performing. I'll pay a buck or 2 for LJ in our auction; not much more though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 Everyone who takes Johnson without having Priest Holmes is looking for upside. LJ is my third rb in a 14 team league. And for those of you who think he will rot on the Chiefs bench if Priest stays healthy, you're nuts. 936384[/snapback] I definitely agree. I have him as my #3 back in several mocks. If you look at the RBs that are generally out there when the 6th rd shows up, LJ usually has the highest potential anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulOttCarruth Posted August 19, 2005 Share Posted August 19, 2005 Any difference on where you select him in a keeper league? And would any of the people who said they wouldn't spend a 4-5 round pick on LJ shift their opinion if they were drafting in a keeper league? He'll be available in Round 4 of my keeper league and I'm in rebuilding mode. I'm debating where his value ranks as compared to the rookie RBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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