How Would You Play This Hand?

[Easy n Dirty]

6-man $20 no limit sit-and-go tournament, 6 seats, 5 players left. Starting stacks were 1500, play is on the fourth level with blinds at 30/60. Tournament is turbo, meaning blinds go up every 5 minutes, but it's online, so you still get a reasonable number of hands in at each level. First and second get paid, $84 for 1st and $36 for 2nd.

 

I'm in big blind and get dealt 9-9.

 

Big stack (3940 in chips) is first to act (UTG) and calls 60.

UTG +1 (660 in chips) folds.

Cut-off (1300 in chips) raises to 300.

Small blind (1250 in chips) calls 300.

I'm in big blind with 1850 in chips and pocket 9s, and it's 240 for me to call. What do you do and why?

 

NOTE - I don't have a great read on any of these guys, although I did note that on two previous occasion, the big stack under the gun had limped in and then called a sizeable raise behind him, once with A-4 offsuit and once when he did not show his hand.

[spain]

You are about a 12% chance to hit your set on the flop. Your pot odds probably dont justify a call there as their it will cost you $240 to win currently $720 but if the UTG guy calls it will be up to $960. That said, you will only be calling off 10% of your remaining chips which makes it look a little better. In a live game, I would throw it away unless I knew the players. Online players play alot more slop especially at that level so that makes calling easier.

 

Bottom line, I muck it but I would probably think it over for a good while.

[Grits and Shins]

You are about a 12% chance to hit your set on the flop. Your pot odds probably dont justify a call there as their it will cost you $240 to win currently $720 but if the UTG guy calls it will be up to $960. That said, you will only be calling off 10% of your remaining chips which makes it look a little better. In a live game, I would throw it away unless I knew the players. Online players play alot more slop especially at that level so that makes calling easier.

 

Bottom line, I muck it but I would probably think it over for a good while.

 

 

I pretty much agree with this assessment. With a raise and call in front of me and the big stack yet to act I'm thinking my 9's aren't going to stand up. Furthermore, with that kind of betting it is likely that to win this pot I will have to bet all my chips.

[Furd]

With a pair of nines, I'd call. Although I think spain's numbers are right, I think that he is assuming that you're beat. But you just might have the best hand.

 

Obviously you're looking for a nine on the flop. And you're probably gone if a nine doesn't flop. But, what if the flop is something like 8-5-3 of different suits?

 

So, if I'm you, I'll gamble a bit to see the flop. You have the chance to take a big pot. And the situation is such that you can get away from that hand pretty inexpensively if you have a bad flop.

[Easy n Dirty]

Well, my thinking was pretty close to spain's - I thought for awhile and then laid it down, but I've been thinking about the hand since and I'm not sure it was the right decision. As spain noted, I'm one-in-eight to flop my set here, so I need to get 7-1 to get fair odds. I'm being asked to call 240 into a pot of 720, so right now I'm only getting 3-1. The leap of faith I need to make to make the call here is that if I do flop a set, I'm gonna' collect all of the remaining chips from one of the two callers in front of me. They each have about 1,000 chips left, so if I hit mys et and manage to wipe one of them out, that's the 7-1 implied odds that I need, which could get better if a) the big stack behind me calls, and/or I get some or all of the other guy's chips too. On the other hand, if I flop the set and get nothing additional from either of the other two (seems unlikely), then a call here is a very bad play.

 

I keep mulling it over and it seems like a very close call/no call decision, seemed like an ninteresting enough hand to me so I decided to post it here. My thinking at the time was that with a sizeable raise and call in front of me, I felt pretty confident that I was already beat by at least one of the hands in front of me, and with the big stack likely to call behind me, I felt that any flop with overcards I would have had to throw my 9s away, given three other guys in the pot.

 

What really happened - I folded, as did the big stack behind me, which kinda' surprised me. Then the flop came J-9-4. The first guy went all in with what turned out to be pocket 7s, and the next guy insta-called with pocket queens. My set woulda' won a monster pot.

 

To compound my misery - next hand I'm in the small blind and the blinds have risen to 50/100 (I neglected to mention this in my initial post because quite frankly I wasn't aware that the blinds were going up next hand, but I don't think it would have changed my play at all). It folds to me, I call with 5-6, and the big stack/big blind checks his option. Flop comes A-Q-6, 2 diamonds. I check, big blind bets 100, I call. The turn is a black 5, giving me two pair. I check, big blind bets 100, I raise to 400, he insta-calls. The river is a 4 of diamonds - flush possibility scares me, but I bet another 400, he calls with Q-4 and his two pair beat my two pair, leaving me pretty much crippled. I didn't bet enough on the turn, but I think his call was very debatable given my raise and with an ace on board. But when you play online for any length of time, this kinda' stuff can't even phase you in the least, you just see it so damn often.

[spain]

Yes, I figured by your question that you laid down your hand and a 9 came on the flop. That is a bitter pill to swallow. It was a close decision either way and I really wouldnt fault you if you can called or folded. You werent really getting the proper pot odds to call, but could have seen the flop relatively cheap(less than 10% or your stack) unless UTG re-raised behind you and squeezed you out. As Furd said, if the flop missed you, then you could get away from the hand without too much damage. The implied odds certainly make it an easier call as you mention. However, hindsight being 20-20, you were less than a 20% chance to win that hand with the raiser holding an over-pair. You made a sound decision.

[Zooty]

Lay it down BUT in that structure I would have called and hoped to hit the flop or get all undercards. In a more standard structure its any easy lay down.

[Big Country]

You played it right. Best case scebario you are up against two under pairs, but that is very unlikely. Best case realistic scenario you are up against an underpair and two overcards, so, you are not getting great odds.

 

You made the right play and had the unlikely scenario of catching a 9 show up. Results oriented thinking is not the way to correct analysis of the hand. Unfortunate result for the right play.

[alexgaddis]

I would go all in

[spain]

I would go all in

 

Unfortunately for your wife, you would have to notify her when you did...

Edited February 25, 2007 by spain

[The Holy Roller]

I pretty much agree with this assessment. With a raise and call in front of me and the big stack yet to act I'm thinking my 9's aren't going to stand up. Furthermore, with that kind of betting it is likely that to win this pot I will have to bet all my chips.

 

 

My first thought, too. Depending on their table perception of you it's either nothing or all here. Of course the guy with pocket queens will call.

 

And you pulled a suck out and lose all respect from the remaining hoosiers at the table. But your LUCKY factor just went through the roof.

Edited February 26, 2007 by The Holy Roller

[MrTed46]

I would have played the 9's. You were already invested 60. So you were needing to invest another 4 big binds/calls with a pocket pair.

 

I tend not to look at how much I could win if I play I tend to look at what it would cost me keep mucking.

 

Thats just my strategy and I do ok in cards. I do like pockets so maybe I am biased.

 

No matter what anyone tells you there is no right or wrong answer. If your 9 didnt flop you would be like ok I did the right thing.

 

Gotta love poker.

Edited February 26, 2007 by MrTed46

[Azazello1313]

with one big raise and a call, and the big stack still lurking, you clearly made the right decision to fold IMO. you are almost certainly behind at least one of them, possibly both.

 

yeah, a 9 came on the flop but that's sort of irrelevant. at the time you made the decision, you WERE behind, which just reinforces the fact that you made the right play.

[bushwacked]

With a pair of nines, I'd call. Although I think spain's numbers are right, I think that he is assuming that you're beat. But you just might have the best hand.

 

 

 

Meh, there was a good good probability he didn't have the best hand, even in online poker. The blinds were relatively low and his stack was still decent. He was 2nd bet after the button and that put him in a precarious situation. The 3rd nine came out, but typically he is either going to fold after the flop are chase on the turn and river when an expensive hand has already been established.

[Big Country]

One more thing that is very relevant.

 

This is a tourney. Survival is a factor.

 

It is many times proper to fold a hand that may be a small favorite if it will allow you to get the money in as a larger favorite later on. With these medium pairs, and taking in to account the action so far you are likely at best a very small favorite if against two overcards and an underpair, and a significant dog if against an overpair or overcards from both, depending on how many outs they each counterfeit, meaning you are less of a dog against AK and AQ as they share an ace than you are against AJ and KQ which means you must avoid more overcards and straight combinations.

 

By pasing here, you can find a situation to get the money in with a much better situation.

[Furd]

One raise and a call in a fivehanded game and some of you guys think that its a "certainty" or somesuch that EnD's nines are beat by one maybe both hands?

 

The raiser was on the button in a fivehanded game. He could have had a hand. He could have had sh*t.

 

Now I know that the small blind has a hand. Maybe he has a pair bigger than nines. But I would have put him on a draw.

 

So there is no reason for me to fear a big pair. And my pair is big enough that there is a respectable chance that I'll have an overpair after the flop. (We're talking about nines, not deuces.) So the hand has some value even if I don't flop a set. Collectively, I may not be the favorite due to the possibility of overcards.

 

You have a chance to win a really big pot in that hand, if you flop a set. With 2 or 3 guys in the hand, someone else is probably going to catch a piece of it. In a small sit-n-go situation, I'd gamble a little bit if it means I can send somebody packing. And in this particular situation, its not going to cost you all that much if you have to throw it away.

Edited February 26, 2007 by Furd

[i_am_the_swammi]

The first guy went all in with what turned out to be pocket 7s, and the next guy insta-called with pocket queens. My set woulda' won a monster pot.

 

 

 

There's your answer....you folded to a better hand. You made the right call.

 

Just because the flop inevitably told you otherwise, your 9's were no good, and you made the right decision to fold. Had a 9 not come on the flop, you'd be kicking yourself harder than you are now for making such a loose call.

[TimC]

I'm waiting for better odds with that kind of action in front of me. You're 20% vs 80% with pair vs overpair so 80% of the time you're throwing money down the garbage. Even if you call and he has A-10, you're still in a coin flip.

 

You made the correct play...poker is full of what-ifs and such. Like the others said, you had the worst of it by a mile pre-flop. In fact, pair vs over-pair is about as bad as you can get.

Edited February 26, 2007 by TimC

[Big Country]

One raise and a call in a fivehanded game and some of you guys think that its a "certainty" or somesuch that EnD's nines are beat by one maybe both hands?

 

The raiser was on the button in a fivehanded game. He could have had a hand. He could have had sh*t.

 

Now I know that the small blind has a hand. Maybe he has a pair bigger than nines. But I would have put him on a draw.

 

So there is no reason for me to fear a big pair. And my pair is big enough that there is a respectable chance that I'll have an overpair after the flop. (We're talking about nines, not deuces.) So the hand has some value even if I don't flop a set. Collectively, I may not be the favorite due to the possibility of overcards.

 

You have a chance to win a really big pot in that hand, if you flop a set. With 2 or 3 guys in the hand, someone else is probably going to catch a piece of it. In a small sit-n-go situation, I'd gamble a little bit if it means I can send somebody packing. And in this particular situation, its not going to cost you all that much if you have to throw it away.

 

 

But the situation does not warrant this type of play. You have a hugh chip leader limoping under the gun, many times a telltale sign of strength, particularly from stronger players playing against aggressive fields. Then you have two of the shorter stacks committing 25% of thier chips already. I am not going to commit 20% of my stack with a mediocre hand like 9's, with two players to act behind me, including the only player that can bust me from the tournament. You have a 50% chance of one or more overcards coming on the flop, rendering your 9's virtually useless, and if it comes in any sort of suited or connected flop, even below your 9's, there is a good chance that it hits one or more players, meaning you again will have to be committing a majority if not all of your stack to continue with the hand.

 

In a deep stack cash game, or a very deep stack tourney, I may be willing to call here, hoping I am not popped behind. But, given the relative short stacks, IMO this is a very easy fold. At the very best, a I stated, you are a very small favorite, worst you are heavily dominated. There is no reason to commit any chips to this situation when you will be able to find much more advantageous situations later on.

 

Also, you are out of position, weakening you even more.

 

Nothing here indicates that a call is a profitable play. You will be playing from out of position with a mediocre hand against several hands that have indicated strength. Other than the slim chance of spiking a 9 and hoping it is a 9 on an uncoordinated flop that one of the short stacks wouldnt push in on with a draw, what sort of flop can you see and expect to win with? Can you call an all in from the big stack with 4 under cards on the flop, even if they are unsuited (can't get 3 unconnected cards under 9, so no matter what, if undercard, there could be striaght draws, if not made straights out there).

 

I guess we will just have to disagree, but I can not come up with a reason to play this hand.

[Grits and Shins]

But the situation does not warrant this type of play. You have a hugh chip leader limoping under the gun, many times a telltale sign of strength, particularly from stronger players playing against aggressive fields. Then you have two of the shorter stacks committing 25% of thier chips already. I am not going to commit 20% of my stack with a mediocre hand like 9's, with two players to act behind me, including the only player that can bust me from the tournament. You have a 50% chance of one or more overcards coming on the flop, rendering your 9's virtually useless, and if it comes in any sort of suited or connected flop, even below your 9's, there is a good chance that it hits one or more players, meaning you again will have to be committing a majority if not all of your stack to continue with the hand.

 

In a deep stack cash game, or a very deep stack tourney, I may be willing to call here, hoping I am not popped behind. But, given the relative short stacks, IMO this is a very easy fold. At the very best, a I stated, you are a very small favorite, worst you are heavily dominated. There is no reason to commit any chips to this situation when you will be able to find much more advantageous situations later on.

 

Also, you are out of position, weakening you even more.

 

Nothing here indicates that a call is a profitable play. You will be playing from out of position with a mediocre hand against several hands that have indicated strength. Other than the slim chance of spiking a 9 and hoping it is a 9 on an uncoordinated flop that one of the short stacks wouldnt push in on with a draw, what sort of flop can you see and expect to win with? Can you call an all in from the big stack with 4 under cards on the flop, even if they are unsuited (can't get 3 unconnected cards under 9, so no matter what, if undercard, there could be striaght draws, if not made straights out there).

 

I guess we will just have to disagree, but I can not come up with a reason to play this hand.

 

For the most part many players become too attached to wired pairs. Even the best wired pair, aces, is very often cracked (so even when you get all your chips in with the best possible hand pre-flop you often lose). With a wired pair your best hope is to flop a set ... these folks should check out the odds of flopping the 3rd to their set. Of course as BC has said, simply flopping a set isn't enough, there are straights, flushs and over pairs to worry about. If the board flops a pair you are also in a quandry, especially if any of the cards on the flop are higher than your wired pair.

 

Players are also very often overly attached to A-K (heck for the matter A-x).

 

Unless I'm desperate I see no reason to play the 9s here. I can't tell you how many hands I could have won had I stayed in for the flop ... you know those hands where I could have boated had I called a raise with my 7-2 offsuit or those hands where I could have hit the straight if I'd called the blind with 4-8 off suit or hit the flush had I called with J-2 suited, etc etc etc.

[wildcat2334]

I'm waiting for better odds with that kind of action in front of me. You're 20% vs 80% with pair vs overpair so 80% of the time you're throwing money down the garbage. Even if you call and he has A-10, you're still in a coin flip.

 

You made the correct play...poker is full of what-ifs and such. Like the others said, you had the worst of it by a mile pre-flop. In fact, pair vs over-pair is about as bad as you can get.

 

 

yeah pretty much echo BC, Spain and tim here- blinds are still low- odds are your a decent sized dog preflop and I wold be thinking overpair all the way- plus your outta position and asking for trouble here.........wait for a better spot to push. Correct play made tougher to take by the 9 spiking.